This has bounced of this level a few times now. So there is a chance this may breakout soon.
shorting at 9498 has already gone as its already bounced of on first attempt basis. But the fact that its still hanging around this level now increases the chance of a breakout tomorrow.
so keep an eye out on the NFP tomorrow as that may send this flying.
This pair has moved a large amount since i first mentioned this.
If your already short on this protect your winnings. make it a free trade just encase.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/jpyusd7thmarch.png

Thanks RMc. Got that:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4hour19_02_13.gif

Jackozy wrote:
Hi Jack

Look to the 4hr/8hr chart
Nice head and shoulders in play?

Sorry no chart RMc

I've decided to take a slightly risky short on this today. My reasons are that it has been very close to a major resistance at 94.98 recently (94.4 high) and it made a lower high yesterday. Couple that with the very bearish RSI divergence and the MACD divergence and the widespread press reports about the weakness of the Yen (press reporting weakness suggests strength to come and vice versa ) and I think there's a good chance for a few pips south. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up to 94.98 later on so I'll look to take profit on this if it goes my way. If it doesn't go on to make a new high then there wil always be a chance to get back in at a downtrend resistance later. Here's the chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_02_13.gif

Read something today about a guy in Japan (governer of the bank of Japan I think) retiring 3 weeks early, which is being viewed as a move to improve the strength of financial policy making...could get choppy over the next few weeks.

Having said that - looks like a C&H could be forming - one to keep an eye on.

Crikey this has been on a charge! I keep waiting to get short on this but it keeps powering on (I did short 92.88 for a few quid but bailed quite quickly) despite the big bearish divergence which looks to be forming:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily06_02_13.gif

Next possible stop is 94.98 which is the first really important resistance since 85.5 so ther emay be a few pips to be had there. Got to be careful as it will be going against a very strong trend.

Negative Divergence on daily chart, if this closes below 90.64 and the -divergence is confirmed i will short this and not before.... max i can see this pumping to 9137 or slightly abv as a stop cleaner before pulling back.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/usd_jpy_daily.jpg

Whoops! Must have clicked submit instead of insert...here's the chart I was going to attach:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily17_12_12.gif

Interstingly, the 50% retracement is exactly at the 80.6 breakout point which was also the rim of a smaller cup and handle. This whole chart looks like a set of Russian cups and handles!

I had my orders in a bit lower at 84.09 and they also got filled at 84.315 due to the gap up (exhaustion gap?). For downside targets, given how well this has behaved, we should be looking at either the 38.2% or 50% Fibs:

Target hit for cup and handle. Im now short.
The perfect trade.
I had a order to open a short at 84.16 Lucky for me this gapped above this and activated the entry automatic at 84.31 right at the high. Im making 40 points on this already and its now a free trade.Its currently 83.90.
For once the spread betting companies have done me a favour.lol
Im must say this currency has performed flawlessly .It respected the technicals perfectly.



dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/usdjpy16thdec.png

I hope people have learned a lot from all the trades ive showed so far. As i dont do hindsite trading like many so called pros.
DYOR
remo

Once this finish above 84.17 we will have rounded bottom here with possible target about 91.10
or it may form another big cup and handle when we retrace a bit now.
Anyone see it the same way?

Im waiting to see what happens when the next candle appears. If it does finish with a shooting star then will be closing my current longs if it goes below the shooting star.Also will look to short this half way up the shooting star with a stop just above.
Obviously its all down to how this finishes.

Thanks gclark25, if only I could live up to your high praise!

What do you guys think about today's candle on this pair? It's looking a lot like a shooting star but it didn't quite hit the 84.17 resistane and my orders (which were short of that level but over 84.00) didn't get hit (Grrrr!):



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily14_12_12.gif

I know we need to wait for close to see how today's candle closes but I'm wondering if the old round number reistance came into play here and the uptrend is complete?

Thoughts welcome...

Absolutely fantastic thread guys.

Jackozy - I tip my hat sir. Not only are you a fantastic trader, but you have the humility to take you so much further - a constant thirst for knowledge, and the humility to listen to others and learn from those, no matter what "level" of trading - you understand there is something to learn from everyone. Your clear explanations and the time you take to interact is terrific to see aswell.

KI - Already said it before, and I was sorry to see you leave the other forum i'm on, you know your shizzle. I Enjoy deciphering your messages. Alot can be learned from you.

Rossy - You also added to the thread. It seems like you are coming on leaps and bounds also, and its great to see. Don't lose that thirst to learn.

Remo - congrats on the site. I can see how much some are taking from it, it offers things that the iii.co.uk can't offer, and I hope you are enjoying and taking from it what you foresaw all that time ago when you were dreaming the site up.

Was just going to post the very same!

This one looks like its finally resuming the up trend by breaking out of the flag continuation pattern.
Obviously it has to finish the day above the flag to be a comfirmation



DYOR

Ignore my question as I bailed out for a small profit as it wasn't sitting comfortably with me - was a good choice in the end!!

Thanks
CT79

Hi Remo,

This is my first trade on currencies, after that sudden spike I'm in now at 8269 but wondering where you think the stop should be best placed after such a sudden movement?

Due to the sudden movement, just making me a bit wary??!!

Thanks
CT79

Theres a nice flag Pattern on this currency pair.
This is a continuation pattern and normally a sign of strength to come.
If this breaks out past 8268 then id expect the cup and handle formation to complete.
This target is 84.17 so about 150 points potential.



DYOR

Here's a weekly view on this pair showing the importance of the 84.178 resistance - it's the previous high (left side cup rim) and also a major downtrend resistance will be there in a week or so:



(Can't post a link this time...)

fingers crossed it works this time

ups, wrong chart posted earlier, here is the right one,

H1 chart, good move can happen from here either way, but more likely up imo

If this breakout past 82.21 then i suspect the next rally should start and this should head towards the target of the cup and handle

DYOR

Sorry one was meant to be a chart




RMc

Also last price action area







Trying images
RMc

Bull flag in play?
Look at 38fib or 50fib for possible entries for long.
4hr price action crucial.

No chart on the iPhone sorry.

RMc

diver993 wrote:
Thats my security measures i have in place
Thats mainly in the learning section but not on the forum. You should not have any issues with regard to right click on the forum side.

remo

KI wrote:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Morning gang. Have been trying to post a couple of charts on this but having problems this end (trying to fix it as i type with my hammer !!! LOL !!!)Anyway what i was trying to show was the bull trap on the 4 hour and the perfect rejection at the 261. I have gone short as of this morning looking for 45 points, then review. KI. (will post chart as and when the hammer effect takes place)

I would expect a sideways to down before the ultimate target of the cup and handle gets hit or attempted

Something odd going on with the site as its telling me, on any right clicks, 'This function is restricted' and so wont allow me to post a link nor a chart via 'insert'.
Anyway, according to the chart I cannot post this appears to have hit the 100% fib and so is probably due a pull-back.

Now this is a big picture....

screencast.com/t/KfNN48OLahfV



Could be time for a short?

Rossymc wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Not sure rossy, but are you asking me to explain ? KI.

KI wrote:
Sorry no chart but on the 4hr...........

Inside bar.
Bull trap (fakey)
Confirmation now needed to short?

Regards RMc

KI wrote:
OK so the target has been hit (as posted 6 days ago)So what do we do now ? Answer...Nothing, we sit and wait for consolidation or a bull trap before going short. KI.

Jackozy ....
Welcome to the world of currency trading. It's actually way more liquid than any share is so technicals work better .All the major banks trade this daily creating a very liquid market.
Elliott's waves work pretty good as well.
But the downsides are that it can get very volatile when it comes to breaking news .ie, economic news.etc,etc
Definately a traders market.

Thanks guys. I know it's risky as it's against a strong trend but 81.78 was my target in my trade plan so I've executed it. I've got tight stops above the 81.86 mini peak and have bagged quite a few pips on the way up so I figure I'm OK to do this. There are bearish RSI divs on multiple timeframes though these cannot be relied upon on there own.

I've seen the rounded bottom with 84p target but I can't help but feel that that's a step too far without more consolidation on the way. If I'm wrong then I'll get stopped out and either reverse my position with a stop below 81.78 or simply wait for 84p and short there instead.

I'm still pretty new to FX so I'll be interested to see how it pans out, especially if Ki's Fib system works as it's so simple it would be great to use. For now though, I've stuck to my plan as my plan has played out so far. I do agree it's looking ropey to be short at this level because it's not fallen back as you might expect from a key resistance so I'll look to keep the risk and money management tight on this. I'm only using mini-FX so it's not a biggy anyway.

Appreciate the comments and feedback (especially the warnings!) so thanks again

test
dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/usdjpy20thnov.png

I couldn't post a dropbox link earlier either...

Still wont let me copy and paste chart. KI. Not to worry. KI.

Clip2net. Will try again. KI.

Hi Ki,

you should be able to post as many charts as you want.

What function are you using?

Was gonna post 2 charts but i am being told this function is resticted. KI.

also look at the rounded bottom.
Sorry about the chart, software does not have good drawing tools.
Could even be said its a cup and handle

My target for that is 84

dyor

Jackozy wrote:
Be carefull jackozy if your shorting, it has just broken out of it 4 hour trading range. The top of my range is 82.26/82.50. KI.

That's close enough to my 81.78 target for me so I'm short on this pair now:



Don't seem to be able to paste the link to the chart this time. Sorry!

Fantastic write up Jackozy.

Kudos to ya

This is just a copy and paste from the EWT and Fibs thread. I think it belongs here too but I'm not sure if the attachments will work. There are links so if they work please refer to them instead....

Here's a follow-up to the earlier piece on the USDJPY live example for the EWT/Fib theory.

Remember, we were looking at a 161.8% Fib extension target for wave 3 up at 80.85 but we knew there was firm resistance at 80.62 which would probably come into play. We were then looking at a possible retrace to the wave 1 high at 79.22 for the wave 4 retrace before continuing up to test the 81.78 reistance for wave 5. Here's what happened:

USDJPYdaily19_11_12a.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_11_12a.gif

As we can see, that resistance came into play perfectly with a bearish RSI divergence too so this was a good place to go short. The wave 4 down turned out to be slightly anomalous though:

USDJPYdaily19_11_12b.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_11_12b.gif

We were looking to the 38.2% Fib or the top of wave 1 to act as support. In fact it retraced to precisely the 50% Fib which entered wave 1 territory. We'll return to this apparent break of EWT rules later. Having bounced off the 50% retracement of wave 3, it began a very swift wave 5 up. Our target for this was between the wave 5 = wave 1 level of 81.157 and the natural resistance at 81.78 and that's what happened:

USDJPYdaily19_11_12.gif

dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_11_12.gif

It's a little dangerous to assume that the top has formed here as it's too early to tell but the current peak does fit well with theory. There also appears to be another bearish RSI divergence forming between the wave 3 and 5 peaks, just as we'd expect (the earlier bearish RSI divergence at 80.62 often occurs between the 3rd and 5th subwaves of wave 3). However, we still have the unresolved matter of the wave 1/4 overlap to consider...

USDJPYdaily19_11_12c.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_11_12c.gif

In fact, EWT does allow for a wave 1/4 overlap in the event of a diagonal triangle. These can be either a leading diagonal wave 1 (as this would be) or an ending diagonal wave 5. In both cases they represent weak impulse waves and are usually followed by strong retraces to at least the 61.8% level and sometimes a full retrace.

As we can see from the above chart, it's possible that USDJPY has formed a leading diagonal triangle with an overshoot for the 5th subwave of it. Elliott did note that the 5th subwave of all triangle formations can often overshoot and extend beyond the triangle boundary so the fact the this happened here does not rule out the leading diagonal possibility. Further, the bearish nature of both the wave 2 and wave 4 retraces suggest that the whole move has a bearish quality about it so perhaps this is not a surprise.

The other possibility, of course, is that the wave count here is wrong and that an alternative may need to play out. Time will tell, but for now this live example has apparently conformed quite well to EWT and Fib theory. From a practical point of view, when the theory has been adjusted to account for nearby natural supports and resistances it's provided a very good trading opportunity and, let's face it, that's really our primary concern here and we will continue to monitor this FX pair as it plays out.

Chart of USDJPY daily, showing bull and bear fibbo. notice how the 23.6 on the bear fibbo gives the rise a target area rather than just a target point (261. on the bull fibbo. KI. clip2net.com/s/2vs70

Yes got back in at a higher level than i wanted, i thought there would of been a stronger pullback first. The reason for getting back in was/is the fibbo target which i first mentioned a few days back circa 8260. KI.