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TOPIC: USDJPY

USDJPY 03 May 2016 10:57 #1

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10518 is a key level.

I'm more interested in shorting this on the break of this level. i think any rally at 10518 may be short lived imho.

If any of you folks are taking the long on.....i would say use guaranteed stops, as this move quickly and fast, and may result in some slippage if the trade was to go against you.

ATB,
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USDJPY 29 Apr 2016 10:15 #2

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My next entry is around 10518 on a first attempt basis.
Im going long there and with a 50 point stop. The price is still 200 points away but im only gonna trade this if it comes to my price and not before. So one to add to watch list .
I always put my trades up early so as people can see why i do it. Its not hindsight trading :P



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy29thapril2016.png
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USDJPY 29 Apr 2016 10:06 #3

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My next entry is around 10518 on a first attempt basis.
Im going long there and with a 50 point stop. The price is still 200 points away but im only gonna trade this if it comes to my price and not before. So one to add to watch list .
I always put my trades up early so as people can see why i do it. Its not hindsight trading :P



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy29thapril2016.png
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USDJPY 28 Apr 2016 12:21 #4

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My stops activated and i made a nice profit.
This example shows why its important to have stops and protect your winnings.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy28thapril2016.png
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USDJPY 22 Apr 2016 12:32 #5

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Last Edit: 22 Apr 2016 12:32 by remo.
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USDJPY 20 Apr 2016 19:38 #6

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im long now and my stop is below 10781 , thats 200 points. But this is the jpy so fast moves is normal and big swings.
remo wrote:
Possible 123 low formation ???
Ive got my order to go long above 10975 with stops below the 2 point if activated.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd.png
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USDJPY 19 Apr 2016 11:02 #7

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Possible 123 low formation ???
Ive got my order to go long above 10975 with stops below the 2 point if activated.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd.png
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USDJPY 02 Mar 2015 10:35 #8

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USDJPY 09 Sep 2014 17:21 #9

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Closed today @ 106.46

image_2014-09-09-2.jpg
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USDJPY 02 Sep 2014 07:17 #10

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Follow up chart
Its a free trade 70 pips profit and still ongoing B)

image_2014-09-02.jpg
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USDJPY 31 Aug 2014 17:34 #11

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Nice HH & HLs on daily

I have order to open long at open on break above last high

image_2014-08-31.jpg
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USDJPY 06 May 2014 12:10 #12

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Worth a long on a first attempt of trendline with tight stops of 40 points or if your braver then below nearest support.
This level has 2 convergin supports near by so hopefully will bounce on first attempt. ;) ;)


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd6thmay2014.png
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USDJPY 04 Apr 2014 12:42 #13

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Nomura's TA take - Not my view ;)
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USDJPY 05 Mar 2014 15:46 #14

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Nomura's take on the dollar yen


I'm not advocating it ;)

Just a messenger :P
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USDJPY 07 Feb 2014 12:08 #15

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Dipped back into this trade yesterday, but soon lost patience with it and took £26 for my wasted time :angry:

Could have been worse, the Yen Cross is (in)famous for losing cash and shirts too. :P

Anyway, please find attached Nomura Bank's technical take on the USD/JPY.

Good luck folks.
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USDJPY 15 Nov 2013 11:41 #16

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Hi libero
I got stopped out of this so gutted my self.Once i get bailed out i dont go back for seconds.But i managed to catch the GBPJPY :cheer:

Im glad your finding metastock useful. Its going to get better ;) ;)
Do you use all the function of Xenith like all the videos??? Thats really coolLibero wrote:
Gutted at not seeing this earlier (I know you did Remo! :cheer: )




(Might get a second chance at a Fib retrace perhaps?)



p.s. Off/Topic to Remo: That Metastock / Reuters package is a monster!
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Last Edit: 15 Nov 2013 11:44 by remo.
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USDJPY 15 Nov 2013 10:59 #17

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Gutted at not seeing this earlier (I know you did Remo! :cheer: )




(Might get a second chance at a Fib retrace perhaps?)



p.s. Off/Topic to Remo: That Metastock / Reuters package is a monster!
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USDJPY 12 Nov 2013 13:32 #18

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Nomura's Technical Take...

USDJPY – support at 97.50/36 can complete wave-(2) correction

(Interesting chart, good call you might say!)
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USDJPY 07 Nov 2013 16:31 #19

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stop got hit already... :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:
thats the problem with trying to catch a breakout :sick: :sick:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdjpy7thnov1.png
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Last Edit: 07 Nov 2013 16:31 by remo.
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USDJPY 07 Nov 2013 14:40 #20

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This looks like its breaking out today???? im already long from the initial breakout with a 40 point stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdjpy7thnov.png
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USDJPY 31 Oct 2013 22:04 #21

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One to keep an eye out on.
Nice symmetrical triangle and a break either way should be profitable
I favor a move up and keep an eye on the higher high since September for early indication as well.
Im going long on a break above 9901 with a 40 point stop.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd31stoct.png

This is a volatile currency so not for beginners . :ohmy: :ohmy:
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USDJPY 10 Sep 2013 15:11 #22

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This tested the breakout point and bounced off nicely :)
Its a free trade now.

hf9d683e.JPG
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USDJPY 03 Sep 2013 15:58 #23

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Resistance points just under 100, and then just under 101 perhaps?

I'm in from 99.262, but content to close up...

Apologie for the poor chart offered, currently at work with limited access!

www.4-traders.com/US-DOLLAR--JAPANESE-YE...alysis-full/&plein=1

(not the same resistance points, but interesting none the less!)
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USDJPY 02 Sep 2013 12:59 #24

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redchilly wrote:
Long @ 99.250
SL is 80 points
hd4a20b7.JPG

thanks redchilly
good spot ;)
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USDJPY 02 Sep 2013 11:59 #25

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Long @ 99.250
SL is 80 points
hd4a20b7.JPG
dyor
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USDJPY 09 Aug 2013 11:06 #26

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would be amazing if we can get below the swing low as there are going to be a tonne of stops there, probably the biggest amount since I started trading. Though I would expect the move to be sharp and pretty short before resuming up for wave 5
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USDJPY 09 Aug 2013 09:27 #27

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/JPY%20Spot.png

I think you're correct Nev.That's how I see it.
Thanks for posting: I thought the whole World had gone on vacation due to the lack of posts :S
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USDJPY 09 Aug 2013 08:45 #28

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this is the only entry I am not happy with at present as I should have been short at the beginning of the week. however with news etc. it was always a risk, so now have a short to see if we can retrace the main upthrust.
2013_08_09_usdjpy_d1.png
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USDJPY 08 Jul 2013 08:17 #29

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PS It could either be a wave 2 up, wave B up or a failed 5th. Or, of course, some bullish option yet to play out ;-)
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USDJPY 08 Jul 2013 07:56 #30

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Despite my earlier stated intention re the RSI, I've gone short on this at the 78.6% Fib and previous uptrend support on the basis that there are those 2 levels of resistance AND the bearish wedge form of this rise. Tight stop just above 101.63 just in case:

USDJPYdaily08_07_13.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily08_07_13.gif
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USDJPY 03 Jul 2013 08:14 #31

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Either way, I'll take a small short at the RSI trendline resistance whatever the price is then.
.....interesting tactic..... I'll watch with interest ;)
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USDJPY 03 Jul 2013 07:58 #32

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OK, thanks diver. 5th failures are always possible so we'll see. Either way, I'll take a small short at the RSI trendline resistance whatever the price is then.
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USDJPY 03 Jul 2013 07:35 #33

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That would make it a failure at 102.41.
A 114.6 ext of wave 4 gives 105.19; or a 123.6 ext gives 106.09??
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USDJPY 03 Jul 2013 07:14 #34

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I agree Diver. That last move down does look a lot like a wave 4 so I'd add the height of wave 1 to the wave 4 low for a possible target. Not sure where that comes in as I'm on my phone atm.
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USDJPY 02 Jul 2013 23:01 #35

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Another possibility is this is a wave 5; the wave 4 being from 103.74 down to 93.79, which would be 38.2% of wave 3. If this is the case this could well go to 106.09, being 123.6% of wave 4.
Just a possibility - not set in stone so DYOR
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USDJPY 02 Jul 2013 20:17 #36

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Thanks Jackozy, I'll certainly keep a look out for that area from now on and cross reference it with other possible resistance, and also watch price action more carefully.

I think the theory behind my trade today was ok, but my trigger happy early entry was rather poor. It's a lesson I am going to have to learn, and learn faster than I am doing!
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USDJPY 02 Jul 2013 15:47 #37

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Hi GC25,

I know it's already past the 61.8% Fib so this could be considered a little hindsight analysis but I've been really short of time lately so couldn't post this yesterday sorry.

Anyway, I remember a poster on here by the nickname of Ki who seemed very good at FX trading and he mentioned the frequency that the 78.6% Fib gets played rather than the 61.8% Fib which we normally see in stocks. Bearing that in mind, my view on this pair is that it's either going to make new highs (could the last drop have been a wave 4?), or the place to short it is in the 101.59 area.

101.59 is the 78.6% Fib and also the area which would backtest the old uptrend support in a few days' time. The key for me is whether the daily RSI is at its resistance at the time the price gets to that level. If it is then I'll short it but if the RSI is still short of its resistance trendline then I think it'll make new highs. Here's the daily chart highlighting those areas:

USDJPYdaily02_07_13.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily02_07_13.gif
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USDJPY 02 Jul 2013 11:10 #38

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Short from 9977 with a 50 point stop and 100 target.

Based on analysis from yesterday. Previous S/R level & 61.8% fib from recent high to low (May - June move)

possibly preemptive, but I believe this could top here for the short term.
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USDJPY 01 Jul 2013 08:24 #39

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USDJPY_-_DAILY_-_1_7_13_.png


I am thinking the 9993/10000 level is a good level to go short for a first touch shorter term trade.

Previous S/R level's plus the 61.8% high to low retracement level and close proximity to a massive round number (10,000)
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USDJPY 13 Jun 2013 04:15 #40

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Things are looking ugly. All kinds of support levels approaching. Somewhere around 92.50 could be a first port of call in what looks like a 5 way move down form the recent high.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/USD_JPY.png
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USDJPY 09 Jun 2013 20:08 #41

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Nice hammer on the usdjpy pair. entry half way down the hammer with stops below.
not for the faint hearted due to volatility.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd9thjune.png
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USDJPY 06 Jun 2013 08:21 #42

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This is back at the main uptrend support again today:

USDJPYdaily06_06_13.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...JPYdaily06_06_13.gif
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USDJPY 28 May 2013 12:23 #43

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This should be a free trade now.... ;) ;) ;)
Perfect entry again ;) ;) ;)
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USDJPY 27 May 2013 23:22 #44

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Trend line play :cheer:
This could be bouncing of the short term trend line. stops below the recent low at 10068.
The risk is small compared to the reward.
This is a very volatile currency so nopt for the faint heart :P :P .


There is an inside bar on this as well ;)
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Last Edit: 27 May 2013 23:23 by remo.
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USDJPY 24 Mar 2013 12:49 #45

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I re-opened that short when the short term trendline broke but closed again at the 94.28 support. This is a strong area with plenty of support from the daily uptrend and 94.28 and 94.46 levels as well as being at daily RSI support as shown on the daily chart:

USDJPYdaily24_03_13.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily24_03_13.gif

Th 4H chart shows this area in close up:

USDJPY4H24_03_13.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H24_03_13.gif

The question is: will the daily and 4H bearish divergences prove stronger than the uptrend support or vice versa? Either way there should be some good pips to be made quite soon on this pair.
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USDJPY 21 Mar 2013 11:40 #46

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Closed the short at the short term trendine support shown here. Now waiting for a breakout either way:

USDJPY4H21_03_13a.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13a.gif
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USDJPY 21 Mar 2013 09:03 #47

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Looking at trading this on the 4H chart:

USDJPY4H21_03_13.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13.gif

There's a bearish RSI divergence coupled with a lower high and a possible second lower high where the RSI downtrend came into play from that bear div. These followed lower lows. A close below 95.748 will mean a failed breakout and a close below 94.28 will mean a further lower low and more downside IMHO.

I initially went long on the backtest of 95.748 but have now reversed that and am short (bit early really) as the price came back to the breakout level a second time suggesting it's not likely to hold. On its own that's not a decision-maker, but added to everything else was enough for me to open the short, if only a small position. Stops above 96.132.
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USDJPY 07 Mar 2013 21:58 #48

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This has bounced of this level a few times now. So there is a chance this may breakout soon.
shorting at 9498 has already gone as its already bounced of on first attempt basis. But the fact that its still hanging around this level now increases the chance of a breakout tomorrow.
so keep an eye out on the NFP tomorrow as that may send this flying. ;)
This pair has moved a large amount since i first mentioned this.
If your already short on this protect your winnings. make it a free trade just encase.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/jpyusd7thmarch.png
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USDJPY 19 Feb 2013 11:14 #49

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USDJPY 19 Feb 2013 11:08 #50

  • Rossymc
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Jackozy wrote:
I've decided to take a slightly risky short on this today. My reasons are that it has been very close to a major resistance at 94.98 recently (94.4 high) and it made a lower high yesterday. Couple that with the very bearish RSI divergence and the MACD divergence and the widespread press reports about the weakness of the Yen (press reporting weakness suggests strength to come and vice versa ;-) ) and I think there's a good chance for a few pips south. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push up to 94.98 later on so I'll look to take profit on this if it goes my way. If it doesn't go on to make a new high then there wil always be a chance to get back in at a downtrend resistance later. Here's the chart:

USDJPYdaily19_02_13.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily19_02_13.gif

Hi Jack

Look to the 4hr/8hr chart
Nice head and shoulders in play?

Sorry no chart RMc
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