KI

Did you get back in and for what reason.
Couldnt stay up all night watching it haha.

RMc

I'm now looking to short this from 81.78 as that's natural resistance and a good place for a wave 5 top.



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily15_11_12.gif

I'll have a look at downside targets when a top has been confirmed, but it should retrace more than 50% of the whole move if it's going to continue to follow EWT as it seems to have done (with a few minor anomolies).

still another 150 points to be had on this pair. KI.

Just short KI.
Round about the same as yourself. Hunting the next opportunity now. This 23 fibbo is playing a blinder everywhere I look.

RMc

If i am not wrong rossy, you must have picked up about 100 points. Nice one mate. KI.

KI wrote:
Already took the points at the 23fib as you pointed out.
Will await the next bit of price action around a fib.

RMc

clip2net.com/s/2vg1Z

Not looking to bad at the mo. KI.

Thanks fellas.

I agree about the subjectivity of EWT and that it's best used as a guide for context. I think we'd all agree that you can't trade using EWT alone. I'm not bad on the rules and guidelines but the application is rather different...

I also agree re using a lower timeframe for entries and exits. I tend to use the hourly but do occasionally use 4H. I also have a look at the higher timeframe just to see if there's anything I've missed eg important long term trendlines not apparent on the daily.

Cheers.

Rossy you are right to mention the 4 hour chart, this is the time frame that many folk know of but dont use correctly. The 4 hour chart is your stong entry and exit point, it is very unusual not to get some sort of indication or PA on this time frame.

Once you have your trend (daily), use the 4 hour to enter on your pullbacks. REMEMBER....there is no rush to get in, if you are unsure just ask on here if you need a second opinion. The biggest plus to the 4 hour is your stop levels are normaly quite tight compared to your target price.

If you want to trade trying to use FAKEY`S make sure you get confirmation. KI.

Hi Jackozy

FWIW, my overal view on the EWT is it is very subjective. Your posts and knowledge have provided great guidance but as i have been told before on chartsview 'you should do what suits you'. Due to the subjective nature i use it only as guidance, excellent guidance. Therefore the EWT is not set in stone for me with regards to FX.

When it comes to the 'Wave Theory' I have tended not to look at a 'FAKEY' as a major concern in the grand scheme of the overlap. I have researched and concentrated more on the consolidation of the price around these important areas. The 4hr chart consolidation has taken place above the top of wave 1. BUT..... my research has been nowhere near the depth as yours Jackozy, this is what i am stumbling across though.

Just my twopenneth and would be greatful for any analysis/teachings from you
Regards RMc

Jackozy wrote:
Very good hol thanks Jackozy.

I would tend to ignore the overlap (especialy on a spike which this was). Also i would trust the fibbo over the wave count. So yes closing price method and price action. There is also 4 weeks of support around this price level (on weekly chart)

I should be up and running posting charts by end of week. KI.

Welcome back KI. Hope you had a good holiday.

Thanks for that. It's intersting as it's really not all that dissimilar to my original analysis. Just one question: how do you account for the wave 4 low overlapping the wave 1 high? Are you overlooking this based on a closing prices method?

Morning Jackozy, looking at how i would have set my fibbo, a higher high was reached on 19/9 (so my 100 would be placed at the top of this candle, the zero would be placed at the low of candle dated 13/9.

You will then see that the pullback went to 23.6 (with some PA) from the 23.6 the price went to the 161.8, at present the price has pulled back and is holding the 100 (as expected)

So my target is now the 261.8 which price wise is 82.60 my stop loss is 79.20.

On a wave count it looks like wave 4 is completing. KI.

Broad-rock, yes, you are correct for normal impulse waves in that wave 4 should not penetrate wave 1 territory. This can only be permitted in the event of a leading diagonal (of which the waves 1 and 4 mentioned would be subwaves). This is not yet out of the question, but I fell it's now unlikely and that it's more likely that my wave count is wrong and 80.675 was probably the top of wave 5.

For now, I've closed my long on this pair based on this chart with a revised wave count:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily13_11_12.gif

So, it looks like the trendline bounce may be a wave B with wave C down to somewhere near the 61.8% Fib to come. Supporting this idea is the breakdown and backtest of the RSI uptrend which is when and why I closed my long. In addition, as Broad-rock points out, the low at the trendline was below the wave 1 high so there's a number of factors coming together to support the breakdown of the previous wave count.

This just shows that you can never completely rely on a wave count and that we should always be on the lookout for alternatives and/or contrary analyses. In fact, whenever I take a position, rather than look for more analysis to support it, I prefer to look for analyses against it. If I can't find any then I ought to be OK. It's easy to lose objectivity if you're looking to support your own view...

ATB

Rossymc wrote:
Long 7928 40 stop
Targets above

ATB RMc

Broad-rock wrote:
Hi broad oak

I use ewt as a guide only. I am currently looking into price action.

Regards RMc

Rossymc, I thought that wave 4 cant overlap wave 1 in an impulse, I am not sure but maybe this is a corrective wave.

this is from Comprehensive course on the Elliot wave principle.

Impulse
The most common motive wave is an impulse. In an impulse, wave 4 does not enter the territory of (i.e.,
"overlap") wave 1.

Liking this now Jackozy

Wave 4 bottom hit (slight overlap of wave 1 high) with a delightful Doji
RSI uptrend intact
Bounced from trendline of wave 2 bottom


Target 80.5 and 82.6

screencast.com/t/VMkRQ7c82

RMc

This is now close to my target for my short:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily08_11_12.gif

I'm closing the short at 79.58 and going long with a stop below 79.24 which should have been the low of wave 4 of one lesser degree assuming the wave count is correct. This will be a test to see if it is.

I got lucky on this today as I forgot to delete my buy order to close my short at 79.90 so it got triggered in the sharp drop first thing this morning. I managed to re-open the short just below the hourly downtrend line (80.37) at 80.25.

I'm still looking for around the 79.50 mark for this.

Looks like I've missed that as it bounced off 79.93. I'll now leave it open as if it gets back down to there it ought to go through. It's a free trade and my stop is at b/e.

I've decided to close this short at 79.90, just above the 23.6% Fib:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily06_11_12.gif

My reason is that I've noticed that most correction down to the 38.2% Fib start their wave B up from the 23.6% one. It also ties in with the expected trendline bounce in EURJPY. I will look to short both of these again higher up as I still think that they've got further to fall. My ultimate short target for USDJPY remains 70.50 as this is close to the 38.2% Fib (of my wave 3), plus support from 79.47.

All IMHO etc

Hope its a free trade for you now..??
Remo

It seems that there is divergence on RSI as well, nice one.

So we could be in a wave 4 of some degree (maybe wave 1) with a wave 5 to come + A B C.

The 38.2% is different to your target Jackozy, what have I done differently to you ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Usd%20Jpy%20%20-%20%202nd%20Nov.htm

great trade mate
spot on
remo

I'm now short on this due to 80.62 resistance:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily02_11_12.gif

Target 79.38 from the 38.2% Fib.

KI wrote: Have taken 26 points proffit, looks to be hitting short term resistance, will re-enter once 7980 is broke with conviction. KI

KI wrote: Have now locked in at B/E.

I've used this as a "live" example as a follow up to the "EWT and Fibs" post.

Have entered this trade long @7945 S/L 35pts targets 8050 8148 and 8251. KI.

Would like to see this pair pullback to retest the strong weekly support/resistance at 7955. I think this has the scope to climb to 8062 as jackozy mentioned. Will most prob trade in the morning. KI.

It looks like the consensus is for a retrace back down to the main trendline from the 2011 lows before a length uptrend. That is interesting because I'm also waiting to short this down from 80.62 at a major resistance and I'd be happy to reverse that for a major wave 3 long at that trendline:





dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily29_10_12.gif

I've not shown any wave counts but it looks to me as if a rise to the resistance would be a wave 5. Going back to the Fib/EWT discussion with KI on the other thread, I note that the uptrend line may could easily intersect price at the 23.6% Fib when drawn his way (upside down).

dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/usdjpy%20prediction.png







This is a prediction from the Reuters Eikon
This is for the average of all the banks.
It looks quite interesting.
remo