Hi Libero,
I'm looking as well on Aud/Eur, it looks very similar from chart point of view imo,

Great Spot MadMaxx.

I like the set-up, and the macros seem to support it (Yen inflows, and Trump calling for more cuts on the USD rates!)

It's just the Yen is such a beast to trade!

I wish you the very best!

Bouncing of down trend line

10518 is a key level.

I'm more interested in shorting this on the break of this level. i think any rally at 10518 may be short lived imho.

If any of you folks are taking the long on.....i would say use guaranteed stops, as this move quickly and fast, and may result in some slippage if the trade was to go against you.

ATB,
Trendfriend.

My next entry is around 10518 on a first attempt basis.
Im going long there and with a 50 point stop. The price is still 200 points away but im only gonna trade this if it comes to my price and not before. So one to add to watch list .
I always put my trades up early so as people can see why i do it. Its not hindsight trading



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy29thapril2016.png

My next entry is around 10518 on a first attempt basis.
Im going long there and with a 50 point stop. The price is still 200 points away but im only gonna trade this if it comes to my price and not before. So one to add to watch list .
I always put my trades up early so as people can see why i do it. Its not hindsight trading



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy29thapril2016.png

My stops activated and i made a nice profit.
This example shows why its important to have stops and protect your winnings.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpy28thapril2016.png

Free trade now


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd22april2016.png

im long now and my stop is below 10781 , thats 200 points. But this is the jpy so fast moves is normal and big swings.
remo wrote:

Possible 123 low formation ???
Ive got my order to go long above 10975 with stops below the 2 point if activated.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd.png

Keep an eye for a triangle breakout


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd2ndmarch2015.png

Closed today @ 106.46

Follow up chart
Its a free trade 70 pips profit and still ongoing

Nice HH & HLs on daily

I have order to open long at open on break above last high

Worth a long on a first attempt of trendline with tight stops of 40 points or if your braver then below nearest support.
This level has 2 convergin supports near by so hopefully will bounce on first attempt.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd6thmay2014.png

Nomura's TA take - Not my view

Nomura's take on the dollar yen


I'm not advocating it

Just a messenger

Dipped back into this trade yesterday, but soon lost patience with it and took £26 for my wasted time

Could have been worse, the Yen Cross is (in)famous for losing cash and shirts too.

Anyway, please find attached Nomura Bank's technical take on the USD/JPY.

Good luck folks.

Hi libero
I got stopped out of this so gutted my self.Once i get bailed out i dont go back for seconds.But i managed to catch the GBPJPY

Im glad your finding metastock useful. Its going to get better
Do you use all the function of Xenith like all the videos??? Thats really coolLibero wrote:

Gutted at not seeing this earlier (I know you did Remo! )




(Might get a second chance at a Fib retrace perhaps?)



p.s. Off/Topic to Remo: That Metastock / Reuters package is a monster!

Nomura's Technical Take...

USDJPY – support at 97.50/36 can complete wave-(2) correction

(Interesting chart, good call you might say!)

stop got hit already...
thats the problem with trying to catch a breakout


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdjpy7thnov1.png

This looks like its breaking out today???? im already long from the initial breakout with a 40 point stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdjpy7thnov.png

One to keep an eye out on.
Nice symmetrical triangle and a break either way should be profitable
I favor a move up and keep an eye on the higher high since September for early indication as well.
Im going long on a break above 9901 with a 40 point stop.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd31stoct.png

This is a volatile currency so not for beginners .

This tested the breakout point and bounced off nicely
Its a free trade now.

Resistance points just under 100, and then just under 101 perhaps?

I'm in from 99.262, but content to close up...

Apologie for the poor chart offered, currently at work with limited access!

www.4-traders.com/US-DOLLAR--JAPANESE-YE...alysis-full/&plein=1

(not the same resistance points, but interesting none the less!)

redchilly wrote:
thanks redchilly
good spot

Long @ 99.250
SL is 80 points

would be amazing if we can get below the swing low as there are going to be a tonne of stops there, probably the biggest amount since I started trading. Though I would expect the move to be sharp and pretty short before resuming up for wave 5

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/JPY%20Spot.png

I think you're correct Nev.That's how I see it.
Thanks for posting: I thought the whole World had gone on vacation due to the lack of posts

this is the only entry I am not happy with at present as I should have been short at the beginning of the week. however with news etc. it was always a risk, so now have a short to see if we can retrace the main upthrust.

PS It could either be a wave 2 up, wave B up or a failed 5th. Or, of course, some bullish option yet to play out

Despite my earlier stated intention re the RSI, I've gone short on this at the 78.6% Fib and previous uptrend support on the basis that there are those 2 levels of resistance AND the bearish wedge form of this rise. Tight stop just above 101.63 just in case:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily08_07_13.gif

.....interesting tactic..... I'll watch with interest

OK, thanks diver. 5th failures are always possible so we'll see. Either way, I'll take a small short at the RSI trendline resistance whatever the price is then.

That would make it a failure at 102.41.
A 114.6 ext of wave 4 gives 105.19; or a 123.6 ext gives 106.09??

I agree Diver. That last move down does look a lot like a wave 4 so I'd add the height of wave 1 to the wave 4 low for a possible target. Not sure where that comes in as I'm on my phone atm.

Another possibility is this is a wave 5; the wave 4 being from 103.74 down to 93.79, which would be 38.2% of wave 3. If this is the case this could well go to 106.09, being 123.6% of wave 4.
Just a possibility - not set in stone so DYOR

Thanks Jackozy, I'll certainly keep a look out for that area from now on and cross reference it with other possible resistance, and also watch price action more carefully.

I think the theory behind my trade today was ok, but my trigger happy early entry was rather poor. It's a lesson I am going to have to learn, and learn faster than I am doing!

Hi GC25,

I know it's already past the 61.8% Fib so this could be considered a little hindsight analysis but I've been really short of time lately so couldn't post this yesterday sorry.

Anyway, I remember a poster on here by the nickname of Ki who seemed very good at FX trading and he mentioned the frequency that the 78.6% Fib gets played rather than the 61.8% Fib which we normally see in stocks. Bearing that in mind, my view on this pair is that it's either going to make new highs (could the last drop have been a wave 4?), or the place to short it is in the 101.59 area.

101.59 is the 78.6% Fib and also the area which would backtest the old uptrend support in a few days' time. The key for me is whether the daily RSI is at its resistance at the time the price gets to that level. If it is then I'll short it but if the RSI is still short of its resistance trendline then I think it'll make new highs. Here's the daily chart highlighting those areas:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily02_07_13.gif

Short from 9977 with a 50 point stop and 100 target.

Based on analysis from yesterday. Previous S/R level & 61.8% fib from recent high to low (May - June move)

possibly preemptive, but I believe this could top here for the short term.

I am thinking the 9993/10000 level is a good level to go short for a first touch shorter term trade.

Previous S/R level's plus the 61.8% high to low retracement level and close proximity to a massive round number (10,000)

Things are looking ugly. All kinds of support levels approaching. Somewhere around 92.50 could be a first port of call in what looks like a 5 way move down form the recent high.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/USD_JPY.png

Nice hammer on the usdjpy pair. entry half way down the hammer with stops below.
not for the faint hearted due to volatility.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/jpyusd9thjune.png

This is back at the main uptrend support again today:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...JPYdaily06_06_13.gif

This should be a free trade now....
Perfect entry again

Trend line play
This could be bouncing of the short term trend line. stops below the recent low at 10068.
The risk is small compared to the reward.
This is a very volatile currency so nopt for the faint heart .


There is an inside bar on this as well

I re-opened that short when the short term trendline broke but closed again at the 94.28 support. This is a strong area with plenty of support from the daily uptrend and 94.28 and 94.46 levels as well as being at daily RSI support as shown on the daily chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily24_03_13.gif

Th 4H chart shows this area in close up:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H24_03_13.gif

The question is: will the daily and 4H bearish divergences prove stronger than the uptrend support or vice versa? Either way there should be some good pips to be made quite soon on this pair.

Closed the short at the short term trendine support shown here. Now waiting for a breakout either way:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13a.gif

Looking at trading this on the 4H chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPY4H21_03_13.gif

There's a bearish RSI divergence coupled with a lower high and a possible second lower high where the RSI downtrend came into play from that bear div. These followed lower lows. A close below 95.748 will mean a failed breakout and a close below 94.28 will mean a further lower low and more downside IMHO.

I initially went long on the backtest of 95.748 but have now reversed that and am short (bit early really) as the price came back to the breakout level a second time suggesting it's not likely to hold. On its own that's not a decision-maker, but added to everything else was enough for me to open the short, if only a small position. Stops above 96.132.