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TOPIC: EurJpy - weekly channel resistance

EurJpy - trend line bounce 06 Nov 2012 10:33 #1

  • Jackozy
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Yep, I've missed this by 10 pips too (should have used the 200MA and 102.12 support as my mark and then added spread).

I've also missed closing my USDJPY short by less than 10 pips and my long order on EURUSD by less than 10 too. Very annoying.

That's trading I guess!
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EurJpy - trend line bounce 06 Nov 2012 10:24 #2

  • remo
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gutted
its bounced about 9 pips from my entry.
my long was at 102.06 trend line. Its also near the 200sma at 102.11
This bounced of 102.15.
I do hate this when i get so close yet so far.
oh well.Ill catch this another day.

Please bear in mind trend line entry levels change every day.




:( :( :( :( :( :( :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy: :angry: :angry: :angry:
dyor
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Last Edit: 06 Nov 2012 10:26 by remo.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 16:19 #3

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hi KI
i always look for minimum of 3 times my stop loss. If possible 4 times.

with regards to stop loss . I tend to give myself a wider stop loss as have been bailed out to much when i go for small stop loss but if the level is perfect then small stops can be done.
On currency and indexs i find that a bigger stop loss normally helps over the long term as long as the risk reward is 4 times as much as the stop.
Just some thing i do

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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 14:32 #4

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Thanks for clarifying that remo. Trading timeframe is an important and often overlooked element of success. We talk a lot about entries too, but perhaps not enough about exits/targets.

Anyway, I'm sure you're right and there'll be a bounce there - supports and resistances are a lot more reliable than EWT for trading from but I still think that a bounce there will be fairly short-lived so I'd be looking to exit no higher than the downtrend line which I have at 103.911 today (falling daily) or a Fib retrace of the last mini-drop - just a classic exit at resistance I suppose.

Your 3 contract method certainly helps overcome the issue of when to exit too.

Thanks again.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 14:22 #5

  • KI
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Hi gang, just popping in for 5 mins. Remo, i dont have decent charts with me, but i would say that yo dont need to risk 30 points on this trade, to make it a good trade 15 points risk looks like the play. What sort of proffit are you looking at ? KI.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 14:02 #6

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hi jackozy.

You have to remember that im a short term trader ...
My aim is to catch the initial bounce then start to take profits. I always place a trade at known supports and trendlines on first attempts. I find it the best way to make a quick profit.
I actually keep it very simple.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 12:09 #7

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Good luck remo. I'm not so sure about this pair. Here's why:

EURJPYdaily05_11_12.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURJPYdaily05_11_12.gif

It looks to me like it's completed 5 waves up on a bearish RSI divergence which was tested and held during the subsequent lower high. Also, if that RSI breaks down before the price then that suggests weakness. I could be wrong of course, but I think I'll wait to see if it comes back to the 61.8% Fib of the whole move up as there's also strong support from the 97.8 area.

All IMHO etc.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 05 Nov 2012 10:45 #8

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Im going long at 101.96 with a 30 point stop

The main up trend line is at 101.94 and the 200sma is at 102.09 so thats 2 levels of support close together.





This is a first attempt basis trade
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 26 Oct 2012 11:52 #9

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It has certainly found reverse now.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 13:24 #10

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Broad-rock, they look OK to me. We've got 3 levels of resistance: 61.8% Fib retrace of last drop, main downtrend resistance and resistance from previous support at the hammer on the 16th April low. If it closes here for the week then there will be a shooting star on the weekly chart too.

I'm just a little surprised it hasn't reversed quicker but that may be due to it being short of resistance against the USD. Perhaps a bit like FTSE trendlines and S&Rs being a bit vague until the Dow makes them more decisive?
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 13:14 #11

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Jackozy wrote:
Looks OK on the daily chart too, GC: dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURJPYdaily25_10_12.gif

Stop would probably have to be outside 104.595 recent high. Will be interesting to see how it goes as it doesn't seem to have sharply reversed from that level.

Yea, I would like to see another test and fail on that RSI trendline without the price breaking the trend by a chunk.

Im sideline at the moment anyway and not trading so these are just for fun and keep the brain sharp.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 13:13 #12

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I done these yesterday, similar, but would like your take on the fib levels please Jackozy.

Weekly
dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/EUR%20JPY%20weekly%2024th%20Oct.htm

Daily
dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Eur%20Jpy%20Da...20-%2024th%20Oct.htm
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 12:51 #13

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Forgot to add, USDJPY looks like it's still got legs but is approaching resistance at 8060 so maybe a clearer trade? dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/USDJPYdaily25_10_12.gif
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 12:48 #14

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Looks OK on the daily chart too, GC: dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURJPYdaily25_10_12.gif

Stop would probably have to be outside 104.595 recent high. Will be interesting to see how it goes as it doesn't seem to have sharply reversed from that level.
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EurJpy - weekly channel resistance 25 Oct 2012 11:59 #15

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Posted a chart a long time ago with a target resistance on the weekly - it has now struck that, and looks to be weakening by my reckoning


EURJPY_-_weekly_-_26-10-12.png




Shorter term view - 1HR


EurJpy_-_1HR-_26-10-12.png


Certainly looks to be topping on the 1HR timeframe too.
Nice divergence and trendline correspondence on the RSI - in line with the bigger timeframe resistance.
Last Edit: 25 Oct 2012 12:00 by gclark25.
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