gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...nsRTMl0SHqd449/CKEA=

just a quickie post here...
last weeks action produced a bearish rsi div....
currently testing support of this short term channel....and just above the 50 day ema line at 1.24

a break below those 2 levels should be momentum trigger for a decent move lower imvho....on leaves the 20 day ema line as support.....

Agree with you guys this is bearish....but for now 1.24 (and 1.2350) being key supports that need to breakdown...

lets see
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Hi,
My sell signal triggered on Monday so hopefully it's going down from here, at least enough to make me profit

Hey folks,

After more twists and turns - what's really changed?

Anyway, here's the updated weekly take:

www.tradingview.com/x/4GaQUFpX/

Whilst this remains very sensitive to news, it looks like a pot shot in either direction!

Happy to yield to your wiser views!

I think this is at important area now,its overlapping structure adds to the view of this being a corrective move. If it brakes down the channel and make new low on Rsi(below 50, where recent bounces happened), then we have possible end of correction,another clue will be price below recent higher low at 12438 which will indicate change in direction as well, then if we look at line chart then this 38% fib line has held well for now.
Then on daily chart is bouncing of 200ma and we have possible fakey pattern where sell signal will be at 12437 with stop above recent high






Just my view atm

We've got a backed in US Fed Rate chop coming up, but this might still cause a surprise or two (in the detail or the size of the chop 0.25 vs 0.50).

Moreover, we've still dialogue going UK vs EU etc....

Lastly, strong battle at the 1.25 area - which is the 38.2% Fib Retrace from 1.338 (the top in March of this year).

Watching this closely.

Thank you Madmaxx, it's an interesting take.

Hi, i've got this guy talking some Elliot waves sense about gbpusd, maybe it will help you somehow



Regards
madmaxx

As per usual TrendFriend you beat me to it!

Here's my weekly revised view....

(still based on the H&S) but, added a price target - not sure if it will get there (any more performances like that from the PM, and it's achievable).

www.tradingview.com/x/lgdmlf86/

As ever, thanks for your input on this TF, I'm stuck to the screen like glue!

gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...znCk2IEfocw%2FGP4%3D

well this is still not bullish yet imvho....not while below that 200 day ema line...

maybe its going to come down and complete a inv h and s bottom??

Or another lower low?....no higher than the 200 day for now....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

This looks like a serious break out....

Still an INSANELY RISKY trade considering the Political Landscape.

www.tradingview.com/x/sYcSKym5/

I thought the mega-phone might apply (not pictured), but it smashed out of that too.

Hi TrendFriend,

(great post as per usual!)

Well, I walked away with £13 plus change (drinks on me!) after trying to trade this!

There's still the matter of some of my savings in USD, which presents a headache, but that's for another time...

4 hour Chart URL: www.tradingview.com/x/AlvQCiZf/

Cable has broken out of my crude channels.

gbp-usd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NNBVQQEQeNdoRErRs%3D

strong rally here...broken above the 50 day ema line and trend channel...
could it go to test the 200 day ema line at 1.2628 ??

while below that 200 day ema this is still in down trend...

be interesting to see how it closes today...could well have been a bull trap b/out...
A rally was likely here because of the large bullish rsi divergence...i just thought it would come around the bottom of the channel at 1.1840...

anyway while above 1.2230 (these numbers change a tad daily) this should rally to 1.2628....
below 1.2230 calls for the lows again...and l/lows imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

nice post below Libero...no idea about XE.
good luck if your trading this...

*SHORT TERM VIEW*

it's testing the previous recent high on the hourly, but I'm watching for TF's 1.2367.

www.tradingview.com/x/cmMh8EtZ/

This one is a really tough to trade!

(with politics controlling direction - it seems - Johnson will probably get his election wish, which "should" end the rally - but WTFDIK! )

Hi TrendFriend,


compelling viewing I have to say (and a great trade set up)

Showed this morning's 15min cable chart (which was worse than yesterday's!) to a work colleague, and his response was akin to "somewhere in this chart is a unicorn; and if I wish hard enough, I'd be able to see it".

I noticed the retail clients are long, but I'm sure the institutional ones are (majority) short. This data iirc is available to retail clients, which only even more concerns for these poor souls.

A more general question - have you or anyone used XE.com or any other firm to transfer dollars (onshore) to sterling?

gbp-usd. daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...qE3Zi3jCCk6TfNUlcrM=

Still holding this channel...next stop and dead cat relief rally at 1.1840 imvho...

74% if ig clients long...

Thsi looks to be just the start of a deeper drop imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Oh man....

Timber!

Nice post Libero...

the set up is certainly bearish imvho....but any kind of brexit deal could see rally...but that will be sold into imvho... as the reality of brexit becomes clear!..

atb
trendfriend

Hi TF,

Quality post - as usual! and apologies for the late response...

It's hard to argue with that picture because I'm nowhere near good enough - it's been ages since I've traded to the short term, but glad to be back

As to what I think (for what its worth, but since you asked ) - Technically 1.22 is being tested as I type - but is that down to political bluster on here and in the US (where there's a lot of pressure to weaken the Dollar).

I don't know if "institutional" money is smart or dumb, but folks are selling Cable relief rallies I'm told. It doesn't look like it at present, but the day is young.

And yes, your chart not only has a H&S top, but, also the double top is clear to see (on the head). The pop beyond 1.22 is odd because in spite of Chancellor Merkel's flexible riposte, nothing has changed. We're heading towards a no-deal Brexit, which surely means the pound is poised for a 1.09-1.10 achieved perhaps by October?

(There's so many conflicting emotions right now - on the one hand, I hold USDs in my "savings", but on the other hand, the UK is home, my salary, taxes, charity et al are all held in GDP - one headache we can all do without!)

Keep up the excellent commentary!

Well I want to know what you think as well??

The q is will it hold 1.18/1.19 or will it go lower, and how low?

the daily here shows this is in this channel...
gbpusd- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kbmdrD2RfzJxVa8Ic%3D

the bulls.....
if it can get above 1.2180 > 1.2367 > 1.2730
i think watch the rsi for a breakout...otherwise 1.22 area will be tops....
above 1.2730 cancels the bear view imho.....
the bottom of the channel is just below 1.20 dropping a tad daily, so we may get one more move down....and rally again....then down??? wdik...

the bears (inc me )
gbpusd - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BSAZacbRa+fO83Xoswg=

does that not look like a H&S top??
looks pretty much like it to me imvho.... and the neckline been busted....
This is finding support around the lows of 2016/17.....if that fails?
can you think of a good reason to be buying/holding sterling positions atm?

how low will it go??
i don't know tbh... $1 to £1 maybe??
it may depend on how it breaks below the key 1.19 level......large gap below 1.19....could be the momentum trigger for a a substantial drop imho....lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
by the way, deal or no deal...UK plc is still going down after brexit imvho....before it recovers...off course no deal will be worse...especially for sterling...

atb, wdik,d yor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Excellent Call TF!

It looks like it's heading there (currently at 1.2150)

Where or how far do you reckon this will drop post relief-rally? will it test the 1.18-1.19 handle from a few years ago?

Cable is a bit of a basket case right now due to the political uncertainty (brexit deal / no-deal etc...)

A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend

Indeed TF,

But as flawed as my hourly chart was, Cable did make a decision on reaching the "point".

(see attached chart)

It's reaction to inflation (2.1 v 1.9) I believe; the bounce won't last I reckon.

yep more down here imvho...

atb,
trendfriend

This is one is tough....

There's politics and there's politics, but lots of talking heads are of the view that there's more downside.

I don't think so, from what I have read there have been really a battle between these two currencies. But British pound is consistently stronger than the U.S. dollar.

Source not mine: www.itrader.com/en/article/pound-dollar?country-options=en

Cable - gbp-usd.

Key level of 1.1975 coming up, possibly worth a long there...
Need tight stops, i think it will break down imvho....
For well over a year, this has been holding in range bound phases, before breaking down.
I think the same is likeey here, and worth a short below 1.195 imho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

GBPUSD support 1.2500 below 1.2500 down trend resistance 1.2550

Get in Touch - www.equityprofit.com

Possible first attempt trade, use tight stops.

actually maybe the 1,2, 3 low is at 1.245

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KM6bwBNgUoCWuISa2sA=

that looks to be the level to beat, maybe this is still range bound for now.

wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

looks like a nice 1,2,3 low here

should hit the 50 day ema as a initial target.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

i suspect once brexit happens pound will be on par with the dollar £1=$1

This was a perfect trade
Now im waiting for the back test of the initial breakout...
so netted over 600 points



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd7thoct2016.png

broke out of strong support...Could go a lot lower. Im short with stops of 40 points
Possible target of 1.22 so around 600 points.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdgbp4thoct2016.png

gbp:usd daily.

looks like a bear flag breakdown today, worth a short even now at 1.3120 imho.
Consistant failure at the 20 day ema line, and rsi support t/line breakdown.
this could go substantially lower now imho, possibly as low as 1.10/105 area mid term imvho.

dyor,wdik.
Trendfriend

possible 123 low formation...heres hoping


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd2aug2016.png

Now things have settled down a bit im looking for any short term profits any way
This is still 250 points in profit from the perfect short area at 1.35. This should be a free trade now .


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd4thjuly2016.png

I would not go long on the pound at all. In my eyes its looking like its heading towards £1= $1. The main support at 1.35 has broken and the next real strong support is at 1.05.
Its been hard to find a good entry to short this and im looking to short this if it re-test the break out point at 1.35. Stops would have to be massive as due to the crazy volatility associated with exit of Europe.


Quarterly chart so as you can see where the next main support comes in at..It goes back to 1985


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd27thjune2016.png


daily chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd27thjune2016daily.png

if your looking to buy euro , its currently at a resistance now so a good level to buy if you had too for holiday,but the overall trend for gbp/eur is down so needs to clear the down trend for it to signal a change.

no turn around here today...£ suffering.. perhaps I should start buying those Euros now, could be parity come August ?

all I want to know is...when to buy my Euro's for holidays

And yes I know this is £ vs $ but if the £ goes up against the $ then against the Euro the £ will be stonger....right ?

This has been dumped hard, however i think it may be about turn around...
The weekly shows this is on the falling support channel trendline.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xyHcAaIuImxh5H1AvbI=

The daily shows a massive Bullish divergence.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ikLoG5l6M26k+ExcXtg=

So i'm long @ 1.4018, with my stop just below $1.40.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

This is going to pump big style, over coming days. Watch one hour chart for entry....

Dyor imo


Ws on travels

Free trade now





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd4thjune2015.png
remo wrote:

Im long from the re-test of the 50day moving average. This came after the bullish engulfing pattern yesterday and the fact that it went half way down the candle today and the 50day moving average was at roughly the same place. The area where this bounced yesterday is the 50% fib as well.
so my stop is below yesterdays low so around 100 points.
ive drawn the trend line from yesterdays touch
Im hoping all these factors should give the currency a bit of support from here and move this higher.
My target for this is the 200 Exponential moving average which is at 1.5523
currency are not for the faint hearted

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd3rdjune2015.png

Hi TF!

Glad to hear all is well with you. Missed your input in the Chatroom, so hopefully will see you there soon!

Yeah, it the USD is spanking the hell out of everything - including GBP.

I placed my stop at 1.4690 because of the June 2010 break out; given how close it now looks to stopping me out, I have a few options:

1. Close ASAP and realise the loss
2. Move the stop loss further down to protect my position
3. Let it be, and let the chips fall where they may.

I've gone with option 2, and moved it to: 1.4350


Take care and best of luck - here's hoping it plays out for both of us!

Hi Libero,

I'm good thanks, hope your keeping well buddy..

Just wondering, why your stop is 1.4690??
I think this could tumble quickly if 1.4790 (ish) breaks, could head to low 1.40's possibly

Just about holding on now.
ATB,
Trendfriend.

TF!

Hope you're well man.


In preparation, I did state this yesterday afternoon, but it looks good for light entry at this level (1.48245):


www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cot...lay=discussion&it=li

Good luck all!

Weekly chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...=&symbol=FX%5EGBPUSD

Long here @ 1.4820. stop below 1.4790.

This bounced of the long term support line...

Regards,
Trendfriend

Being risk averse I am waiting for the close above the trend line. Nice heads up Remo.

Great trade
should be a free trade now



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusg6thfeb2015.png