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TOPIC: GBPUSD

GBPUSD 14 Oct 2019 10:58 #1

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gbp-usd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PSFWOVPsNyhQcPeGo%3D

looks like its back below the 200 day em line again.... :side:

Is this going all the way back down to the bottom of the channel??

Giving this one more go here....short again 1.25537...stop 1.25800....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
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GBPUSD 11 Oct 2019 12:22 #2

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That went well :sick: :pinch:
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GBPUSD 11 Oct 2019 11:37 #3

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short here at 1.2570....

watching closely....will close it out if go a couple of hundred pips above 1.2575 :whistle:

lets see...

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GBPUSD 10 Oct 2019 21:42 #4

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gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aQhEXL%2FmknKIVwg%3D

i was looking at this earlier as well....
For me the key is the 200 day ema line, until a break and hold above that level, this is still in a downtrend...
lets see....i may get tempted to short the 200 day ema line level at 1.2575....

for the h&s....
Head and shoulder is the pattern for a top confirmation....
to confirm a bottom, we need a inverted h & s....
this may well have formed a inv h&s, its not a perfect inv h&s, but they don't need to be perfect....either way i make the neckline for the inv h&s around that 200 day ema line feature... ;)
so the key area is that 1.2575....above that time to go long....and buy the dips....while below the 200 day ema, still short the rallies imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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GBPUSD 10 Oct 2019 18:59 #5

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Thats some serious move up, don't think my sell setup is still valid,
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GBPUSD 09 Oct 2019 15:34 #6

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Another potential short setup on cable, this time inside bar(unless it change be the end of the day).
sell 12194, stop 12304, target 12000 area

Screenshot_20191009-152958_IGTrading.jpg
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GBPUSD 08 Oct 2019 14:02 #7

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Cheers Madmaxx!

Yes, I saw the double bottom - which could end up being a triple bottom the way things are going...

Lots of liquidity at 1.190-1.200. (I'm told) institutional are buying at these levels as a hedge ahead of further weakness - but who knows.

I'm starting to think what's happening now is exclusively rich folks who are long vs rich folks who are short - all being played out in this toxic arena.
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GBPUSD 08 Oct 2019 12:52 #8

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Hi, it's way to early to call this h&s, might be double bottom earlier, but who knows.At this stage i can't see anything obvious yet.
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GBPUSD 08 Oct 2019 12:02 #9

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Hey Folks,

Well, never a dull day in Cable land...

TrendFriend showed a wicked H&S pattern on the weekly a while back, but I wonder, is there now one forming on the daily?

Also, not the 50 DMA couldn't hold today...

Good Luck all, happy to receive feedback (correction more like!), and be safe out there folks!
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GBPUSD 04 Oct 2019 14:49 #10

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I've used this channel line to take profit from my short trade, and now we have another setup ready move lower, another fakey pattern just about to trigger below 12265 and 12226 stop 12414

Screenshot_20191004-135155_IGTrading.jpg
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GBPUSD 01 Oct 2019 18:32 #11

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gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Qo9%2FYZWPGLByCQI%3D

Not quite a perfect trend channel bounce....but 1.2180/1.22 was target before a bounce as per the chart from 26 sep....and 1.22 was todays low...

The second test of that level and channel could be interesting....still more down here imvho....but lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
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GBPUSD 26 Sep 2019 11:56 #12

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Trendfriend wrote:
gbpusd-daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aSS1pFbeSIDa+7MEyEo=

with 1.24 and 1.2350 both busted, while below those two numbers, the next target around 1.22 imvho...

i think a drop below 1.19 the recent low....should see that 1.05...
the other views seem extreme....but then so is the politics atm!!!

so who knows... :lol:

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)

Indeed TrendFriend (another quality post).

Cable retreating back to 1.20 (liquid heaven) is on track - albeit slowly.

1.09 is talked about a lot, but I'd repeat what I said about extreme projected scenarios, a breach of 1.05 is going to be a bigger issue than simply banking a very healthy profit.... This is a game-changer in a different way.


Corrections, Trades are completely separate to "re-evaluations" - which is what would happen if Cable breaches 1.05 or thereabouts.

A couple of former colleagues, one from South Africa, the other from north Africa (Tunisia I think), pointed out to me the difference between a correction and re-revalutation of a country's currency:

The SA Rand was trading around 6 to the USD a few years ago, before reaching 16. What are the chances it would head back to single digits? It's done for.

The Tunisian Dinar (I think?) was trading at parity with the USD a few years back, now, it's 3:1. What's the chance of re-balance? It's done for.


Living costs & conditions in those nations have resulted in declines, for the USD is the money-stick the world abides by (for now at least!) - That's why I'm apprehensive about potential gains on a cable trade. I'm nervous about looking away from the trading statement and onto what's happening outside :woohoo: :S :evil:

Wishing everyone here profit and prosperity, and above all, Peace!
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GBPUSD 26 Sep 2019 11:18 #13

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gbpusd-daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aSS1pFbeSIDa+7MEyEo=

with 1.24 and 1.2350 both busted, while below those two numbers, the next target around 1.22 imvho...

i think a drop below 1.19 the recent low....should see that 1.05...
the other views seem extreme....but then so is the politics atm!!!

so who knows... :lol:

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 13:31 #14

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Both scenarios are brutal, (the first one could be very interesting / rewarding),

but that second one....

That - That - could make concerns change way beyond financial gains in the market.
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 13:19 #15

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According to Elliot waves there are to potential situations for Gbp,
20190925_131447.jpg


20190925_131419.jpg
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 12:56 #16

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gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...m3p/FWvv+bKHLqDMo8A=

the 50 day ema has been broken....and the rsi support trendline is also busted....

this has the potential to get really nasty imvho... :pinch: :sick: :evil:

atb
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 12:05 #17

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Hey Folks,

Naturally, agree with your points (but I'm biased!) :)

Now, whatever the political outcome, doesn't mean the end of a possible downside in my humble view.

The heavy players in the city (and take it all with a pinch of salt), suggest that the real line of liquidity - 1.20 could break to go to 1.09. Now that, would be both, a bonanza and a disaster!
:woohoo:
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 10:24 #18

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gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...nsRTMl0SHqd449/CKEA=

just a quickie post here...
last weeks action produced a bearish rsi div....
currently testing support of this short term channel....and just above the 50 day ema line at 1.24

a break below those 2 levels should be momentum trigger for a decent move lower imvho....on leaves the 20 day ema line as support.....

Agree with you guys this is bearish....but for now 1.24 (and 1.2350) being key supports that need to breakdown...

lets see
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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GBPUSD 25 Sep 2019 08:19 #19

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Hi,
My sell signal triggered on Monday so hopefully it's going down from here, at least enough to make me profit
madmaxx
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GBPUSD 24 Sep 2019 23:39 #20

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Hey folks,

After more twists and turns - what's really changed? :unsure:

Anyway, here's the updated weekly take:

www.tradingview.com/x/4GaQUFpX/

Whilst this remains very sensitive to news, it looks like a pot shot in either direction! :woohoo:

Happy to yield to your wiser views!
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GBPUSD 20 Sep 2019 15:25 #21

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I think this is at important area now,its overlapping structure adds to the view of this being a corrective move. If it brakes down the channel and make new low on Rsi(below 50, where recent bounces happened), then we have possible end of correction,another clue will be price below recent higher low at 12438 which will indicate change in direction as well, then if we look at line chart then this 38% fib line has held well for now.
Then on daily chart is bouncing of 200ma and we have possible fakey pattern where sell signal will be at 12437 with stop above recent high
Screenshot_20190920-145925_IGTrading.jpg


Screenshot_20190920-145831_IGTrading.jpg


Screenshot_20190920-152333_IGTrading.jpg


Just my view atm
madmaxx
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GBPUSD 18 Sep 2019 12:32 #22

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We've got a backed in US Fed Rate chop coming up, but this might still cause a surprise or two (in the detail or the size of the chop 0.25 vs 0.50).

Moreover, we've still dialogue going UK vs EU etc....

Lastly, strong battle at the 1.25 area - which is the 38.2% Fib Retrace from 1.338 (the top in March of this year).

Watching this closely.
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 22:30 #23

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Thank you Madmaxx, it's an interesting take. B)
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 21:46 #24

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Hi, i've got this guy talking some Elliot waves sense about gbpusd, maybe it will help you somehow



Regards
madmaxx
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 19:48 #25

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As per usual TrendFriend you beat me to it! :P :evil: :woohoo:

Here's my weekly revised view....

(still based on the H&S) but, added a price target - not sure if it will get there (any more performances like that from the PM, and it's achievable).

www.tradingview.com/x/lgdmlf86/

As ever, thanks for your input on this TF, I'm stuck to the screen like glue!
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 18:43 #26

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gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...znCk2IEfocw%2FGP4%3D

well this is still not bullish yet imvho....not while below that 200 day ema line...

maybe its going to come down and complete a inv h and s bottom??

Or another lower low?....no higher than the 200 day for now....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend :)
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GBPUSD 13 Sep 2019 10:42 #27

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This looks like a serious break out....

Still an INSANELY RISKY trade considering the Political Landscape.

www.tradingview.com/x/sYcSKym5/

I thought the mega-phone might apply (not pictured), but it smashed out of that too.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 07 Sep 2019 11:58 #28

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Hi TrendFriend,

(great post as per usual!)

Well, I walked away with £13 plus change (drinks on me!) after trying to trade this! :woohoo:

There's still the matter of some of my savings in USD, which presents a headache, but that's for another time...

4 hour Chart URL: www.tradingview.com/x/AlvQCiZf/

Cable has broken out of my crude channels.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 06 Sep 2019 11:09 #29

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gbp-usd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NNBVQQEQeNdoRErRs%3D

strong rally here...broken above the 50 day ema line and trend channel... :ohmy:
could it go to test the 200 day ema line at 1.2628 ??

while below that 200 day ema this is still in down trend...

be interesting to see how it closes today...could well have been a bull trap b/out...
A rally was likely here because of the large bullish rsi divergence...i just thought it would come around the bottom of the channel at 1.1840...

anyway while above 1.2230 (these numbers change a tad daily) this should rally to 1.2628....
below 1.2230 calls for the lows again...and l/lows imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)

nice post below Libero...no idea about XE.
good luck if your trading this... :)
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 05 Sep 2019 10:49 #30

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*SHORT TERM VIEW*

it's testing the previous recent high on the hourly, but I'm watching for TF's 1.2367.

www.tradingview.com/x/cmMh8EtZ/

This one is a really tough to trade!

(with politics controlling direction - it seems - Johnson will probably get his election wish, which "should" end the rally - but WTFDIK! :woohoo: )
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 03 Sep 2019 12:48 #31

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Hi TrendFriend,


compelling viewing I have to say (and a great trade set up)

Showed this morning's 15min cable chart (which was worse than yesterday's!) to a work colleague, and his response was akin to "somewhere in this chart is a unicorn; and if I wish hard enough, I'd be able to see it".

I noticed the retail clients are long, but I'm sure the institutional ones are (majority) short. This data iirc is available to retail clients, which only even more concerns for these poor souls.

A more general question - have you or anyone used XE.com or any other firm to transfer dollars (onshore) to sterling?
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 03 Sep 2019 11:19 #32

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gbp-usd. daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...qE3Zi3jCCk6TfNUlcrM=

Still holding this channel...next stop and dead cat relief rally at 1.1840 imvho...

74% if ig clients long... :sick: :sick:

Thsi looks to be just the start of a deeper drop imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 02 Sep 2019 15:25 #33

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Oh man....

Timber!
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 23 Aug 2019 12:45 #34

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Nice post Libero...

the set up is certainly bearish imvho....but any kind of brexit deal could see rally...but that will be sold into imvho... :pinch: as the reality of brexit becomes clear!.. :sick:

atb
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 22 Aug 2019 15:29 #35

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Hi TF,

Quality post - as usual! and apologies for the late response...

It's hard to argue with that picture because I'm nowhere near good enough - it's been ages since I've traded to the short term, but glad to be back :)

As to what I think (for what its worth, but since you asked :P ) - Technically 1.22 is being tested as I type - but is that down to political bluster on here and in the US (where there's a lot of pressure to weaken the Dollar).

I don't know if "institutional" money is smart or dumb, but folks are selling Cable relief rallies I'm told. It doesn't look like it at present, but the day is young.

And yes, your chart not only has a H&S top, but, also the double top is clear to see (on the head). The pop beyond 1.22 is odd because in spite of Chancellor Merkel's flexible riposte, nothing has changed. We're heading towards a no-deal Brexit, which surely means the pound is poised for a 1.09-1.10 achieved perhaps by October?

(There's so many conflicting emotions right now - on the one hand, I hold USDs in my "savings", but on the other hand, the UK is home, my salary, taxes, charity et al are all held in GDP - one headache we can all do without!) B)

Keep up the excellent commentary!
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 18:07 #36

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Well I want to know what you think as well?? :)

The q is will it hold 1.18/1.19 or will it go lower, and how low?

the daily here shows this is in this channel...
gbpusd- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kbmdrD2RfzJxVa8Ic%3D

the bulls.....
if it can get above 1.2180 > 1.2367 > 1.2730
i think watch the rsi for a breakout...otherwise 1.22 area will be tops....
above 1.2730 cancels the bear view imho.....
the bottom of the channel is just below 1.20 dropping a tad daily, so we may get one more move down....and rally again....then down??? wdik... :S

the bears (inc me :lol: )
gbpusd - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BSAZacbRa+fO83Xoswg=

does that not look like a H&S top??
looks pretty much like it to me imvho.... :whistle: and the neckline been busted....
This is finding support around the lows of 2016/17.....if that fails? :sick:
can you think of a good reason to be buying/holding sterling positions atm?

how low will it go??
i don't know tbh... $1 to £1 maybe??
it may depend on how it breaks below the key 1.19 level......large gap below 1.19....could be the momentum trigger for a a substantial drop imho....lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
by the way, deal or no deal...UK plc is still going down after brexit imvho....before it recovers...off course no deal will be worse...especially for sterling...

atb, wdik,d yor,
trendfriend
Last Edit: 15 Aug 2019 18:10 by Trendfriend.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 12:56 #37

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Trendfriend wrote:
A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend

Excellent Call TF!

It looks like it's heading there (currently at 1.2150)

Where or how far do you reckon this will drop post relief-rally? will it test the 1.18-1.19 handle from a few years ago?

Cable is a bit of a basket case right now due to the political uncertainty (brexit deal / no-deal etc...)
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 11:22 #38

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A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 14 Aug 2019 10:56 #39

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Indeed TF,

But as flawed as my hourly chart was, Cable did make a decision on reaching the "point".

(see attached chart)

It's reaction to inflation (2.1 v 1.9) I believe; the bounce won't last I reckon.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 14 Aug 2019 10:18 #40

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yep more down here imvho... :sick:

atb,
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 13 Aug 2019 21:28 #41

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This is one is tough....

There's politics and there's politics, but lots of talking heads are of the view that there's more downside.
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 29 Mar 2017 02:04 #42

I don't think so, from what I have read there have been really a battle between these two currencies. But British pound is consistently stronger than the U.S. dollar.

Source not mine: www.itrader.com/en/article/pound-dollar?country-options=en
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GBPUSD 14 Mar 2017 22:44 #43

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Cable - gbp-usd.

Key level of 1.1975 coming up, possibly worth a long there...
Need tight stops, i think it will break down imvho....
For well over a year, this has been holding in range bound phases, before breaking down.
I think the same is likeey here, and worth a short below 1.195 imho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
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cable14mar2017.PNG
Last Edit: 14 Mar 2017 22:44 by Trendfriend.
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GBPUSD 14 Feb 2017 08:21 #44

GBPUSD support 1.2500 below 1.2500 down trend resistance 1.2550

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GBPUSD 02 Feb 2017 11:15 #45

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Possible first attempt trade, use tight stops.

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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 03 Nov 2016 11:40 #46

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actually maybe the 1,2, 3 low is at 1.245 :oops:

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KM6bwBNgUoCWuISa2sA=

that looks to be the level to beat, maybe this is still range bound for now.

wdik, dyor,
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 03 Nov 2016 10:42 #47

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looks like a nice 1,2,3 low here ;) ;)

should hit the 50 day ema as a initial target.

atb, wdik, dyor,
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gbpusd3nov2016.PNG
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 07 Oct 2016 12:40 #48

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i suspect once brexit happens pound will be on par with the dollar :unsure: £1=$1
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 07 Oct 2016 12:38 #49

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This was a perfect trade :cheer: :cheer:
Now im waiting for the back test of the initial breakout...
so netted over 600 points :) :)



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd7thoct2016.png
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 04 Oct 2016 10:09 #50

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broke out of strong support...Could go a lot lower. Im short with stops of 40 points
Possible target of 1.22 so around 600 points.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdgbp4thoct2016.png
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Last Edit: 04 Oct 2016 10:11 by remo.
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