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TOPIC: GBPUSD

GBPUSD 18 Sep 2019 12:32 #1

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We've got a backed in US Fed Rate chop coming up, but this might still cause a surprise or two (in the detail or the size of the chop 0.25 vs 0.50).

Moreover, we've still dialogue going UK vs EU etc....

Lastly, strong battle at the 1.25 area - which is the 38.2% Fib Retrace from 1.338 (the top in March of this year).

Watching this closely.
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 22:30 #2

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Thank you Madmaxx, it's an interesting take. B)
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 21:46 #3

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Hi, i've got this guy talking some Elliot waves sense about gbpusd, maybe it will help you somehow



Regards
madmaxx
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 19:48 #4

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As per usual TrendFriend you beat me to it! :P :evil: :woohoo:

Here's my weekly revised view....

(still based on the H&S) but, added a price target - not sure if it will get there (any more performances like that from the PM, and it's achievable).

www.tradingview.com/x/lgdmlf86/

As ever, thanks for your input on this TF, I'm stuck to the screen like glue!
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GBPUSD 16 Sep 2019 18:43 #5

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gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...znCk2IEfocw%2FGP4%3D

well this is still not bullish yet imvho....not while below that 200 day ema line...

maybe its going to come down and complete a inv h and s bottom??

Or another lower low?....no higher than the 200 day for now....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend :)
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GBPUSD 13 Sep 2019 10:42 #6

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This looks like a serious break out....

Still an INSANELY RISKY trade considering the Political Landscape.

www.tradingview.com/x/sYcSKym5/

I thought the mega-phone might apply (not pictured), but it smashed out of that too.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 07 Sep 2019 11:58 #7

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Hi TrendFriend,

(great post as per usual!)

Well, I walked away with £13 plus change (drinks on me!) after trying to trade this! :woohoo:

There's still the matter of some of my savings in USD, which presents a headache, but that's for another time...

4 hour Chart URL: www.tradingview.com/x/AlvQCiZf/

Cable has broken out of my crude channels.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 06 Sep 2019 11:09 #8

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gbp-usd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NNBVQQEQeNdoRErRs%3D

strong rally here...broken above the 50 day ema line and trend channel... :ohmy:
could it go to test the 200 day ema line at 1.2628 ??

while below that 200 day ema this is still in down trend...

be interesting to see how it closes today...could well have been a bull trap b/out...
A rally was likely here because of the large bullish rsi divergence...i just thought it would come around the bottom of the channel at 1.1840...

anyway while above 1.2230 (these numbers change a tad daily) this should rally to 1.2628....
below 1.2230 calls for the lows again...and l/lows imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)

nice post below Libero...no idea about XE.
good luck if your trading this... :)
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 05 Sep 2019 10:49 #9

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*SHORT TERM VIEW*

it's testing the previous recent high on the hourly, but I'm watching for TF's 1.2367.

www.tradingview.com/x/cmMh8EtZ/

This one is a really tough to trade!

(with politics controlling direction - it seems - Johnson will probably get his election wish, which "should" end the rally - but WTFDIK! :woohoo: )
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 03 Sep 2019 12:48 #10

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Hi TrendFriend,


compelling viewing I have to say (and a great trade set up)

Showed this morning's 15min cable chart (which was worse than yesterday's!) to a work colleague, and his response was akin to "somewhere in this chart is a unicorn; and if I wish hard enough, I'd be able to see it".

I noticed the retail clients are long, but I'm sure the institutional ones are (majority) short. This data iirc is available to retail clients, which only even more concerns for these poor souls.

A more general question - have you or anyone used XE.com or any other firm to transfer dollars (onshore) to sterling?
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 03 Sep 2019 11:19 #11

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gbp-usd. daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...qE3Zi3jCCk6TfNUlcrM=

Still holding this channel...next stop and dead cat relief rally at 1.1840 imvho...

74% if ig clients long... :sick: :sick:

Thsi looks to be just the start of a deeper drop imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 02 Sep 2019 15:25 #12

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Oh man....

Timber!
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 23 Aug 2019 12:45 #13

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Nice post Libero...

the set up is certainly bearish imvho....but any kind of brexit deal could see rally...but that will be sold into imvho... :pinch: as the reality of brexit becomes clear!.. :sick:

atb
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 22 Aug 2019 15:29 #14

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Hi TF,

Quality post - as usual! and apologies for the late response...

It's hard to argue with that picture because I'm nowhere near good enough - it's been ages since I've traded to the short term, but glad to be back :)

As to what I think (for what its worth, but since you asked :P ) - Technically 1.22 is being tested as I type - but is that down to political bluster on here and in the US (where there's a lot of pressure to weaken the Dollar).

I don't know if "institutional" money is smart or dumb, but folks are selling Cable relief rallies I'm told. It doesn't look like it at present, but the day is young.

And yes, your chart not only has a H&S top, but, also the double top is clear to see (on the head). The pop beyond 1.22 is odd because in spite of Chancellor Merkel's flexible riposte, nothing has changed. We're heading towards a no-deal Brexit, which surely means the pound is poised for a 1.09-1.10 achieved perhaps by October?

(There's so many conflicting emotions right now - on the one hand, I hold USDs in my "savings", but on the other hand, the UK is home, my salary, taxes, charity et al are all held in GDP - one headache we can all do without!) B)

Keep up the excellent commentary!
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 18:07 #15

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Well I want to know what you think as well?? :)

The q is will it hold 1.18/1.19 or will it go lower, and how low?

the daily here shows this is in this channel...
gbpusd- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kbmdrD2RfzJxVa8Ic%3D

the bulls.....
if it can get above 1.2180 > 1.2367 > 1.2730
i think watch the rsi for a breakout...otherwise 1.22 area will be tops....
above 1.2730 cancels the bear view imho.....
the bottom of the channel is just below 1.20 dropping a tad daily, so we may get one more move down....and rally again....then down??? wdik... :S

the bears (inc me :lol: )
gbpusd - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BSAZacbRa+fO83Xoswg=

does that not look like a H&S top??
looks pretty much like it to me imvho.... :whistle: and the neckline been busted....
This is finding support around the lows of 2016/17.....if that fails? :sick:
can you think of a good reason to be buying/holding sterling positions atm?

how low will it go??
i don't know tbh... $1 to £1 maybe??
it may depend on how it breaks below the key 1.19 level......large gap below 1.19....could be the momentum trigger for a a substantial drop imho....lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
by the way, deal or no deal...UK plc is still going down after brexit imvho....before it recovers...off course no deal will be worse...especially for sterling...

atb, wdik,d yor,
trendfriend
Last Edit: 15 Aug 2019 18:10 by Trendfriend.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 12:56 #16

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Trendfriend wrote:
A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend

Excellent Call TF!

It looks like it's heading there (currently at 1.2150)

Where or how far do you reckon this will drop post relief-rally? will it test the 1.18-1.19 handle from a few years ago?

Cable is a bit of a basket case right now due to the political uncertainty (brexit deal / no-deal etc...)
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 15 Aug 2019 11:22 #17

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A relief rally may see this could hit just shy of 1.22....before another drop imvho....

atb,
trendfriend
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 14 Aug 2019 10:56 #18

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Indeed TF,

But as flawed as my hourly chart was, Cable did make a decision on reaching the "point".

(see attached chart)

It's reaction to inflation (2.1 v 1.9) I believe; the bounce won't last I reckon.
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 14 Aug 2019 10:18 #19

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yep more down here imvho... :sick:

atb,
trendfriend
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(Short-term Cable Trade?) 13 Aug 2019 21:28 #20

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This is one is tough....

There's politics and there's politics, but lots of talking heads are of the view that there's more downside.
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 29 Mar 2017 02:04 #21

I don't think so, from what I have read there have been really a battle between these two currencies. But British pound is consistently stronger than the U.S. dollar.

Source not mine: www.itrader.com/en/article/pound-dollar?country-options=en
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GBPUSD 14 Mar 2017 22:44 #22

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Cable - gbp-usd.

Key level of 1.1975 coming up, possibly worth a long there...
Need tight stops, i think it will break down imvho....
For well over a year, this has been holding in range bound phases, before breaking down.
I think the same is likeey here, and worth a short below 1.195 imho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
cable14mar2017.PNG
Last Edit: 14 Mar 2017 22:44 by Trendfriend.
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GBPUSD 14 Feb 2017 08:21 #23

GBPUSD support 1.2500 below 1.2500 down trend resistance 1.2550

Get in Touch - www.equityprofit.com
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GBPUSD 02 Feb 2017 11:15 #24

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Possible first attempt trade, use tight stops.

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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 03 Nov 2016 11:40 #25

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actually maybe the 1,2, 3 low is at 1.245 :oops:

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KM6bwBNgUoCWuISa2sA=

that looks to be the level to beat, maybe this is still range bound for now.

wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 03 Nov 2016 10:42 #26

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looks like a nice 1,2,3 low here ;) ;)

should hit the 50 day ema as a initial target.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
gbpusd3nov2016.PNG
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 07 Oct 2016 12:40 #27

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i suspect once brexit happens pound will be on par with the dollar :unsure: £1=$1
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 07 Oct 2016 12:38 #28

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This was a perfect trade :cheer: :cheer:
Now im waiting for the back test of the initial breakout...
so netted over 600 points :) :)



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd7thoct2016.png
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 04 Oct 2016 10:09 #29

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broke out of strong support...Could go a lot lower. Im short with stops of 40 points
Possible target of 1.22 so around 600 points.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/usdgbp4thoct2016.png
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Last Edit: 04 Oct 2016 10:11 by remo.
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 04 Aug 2016 18:07 #30

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gbp:usd daily.

looks like a bear flag breakdown today, worth a short even now at 1.3120 imho.
Consistant failure at the 20 day ema line, and rsi support t/line breakdown.
this could go substantially lower now imho, possibly as low as 1.10/105 area mid term imvho.

dyor,wdik.
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gbpusddaily4aug16.PNG
Last Edit: 04 Aug 2016 18:10 by Trendfriend.
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 02 Aug 2016 20:52 #31

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possible 123 low formation...heres hoping :unsure:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd2aug2016.png
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 04 Jul 2016 10:08 #32

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Now things have settled down a bit im looking for any short term profits any way :)
This is still 250 points in profit from the perfect short area at 1.35. This should be a free trade now .


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd4thjuly2016.png
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pound is at the lowest level against the dollar since 1985 27 Jun 2016 14:43 #33

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I would not go long on the pound at all. In my eyes its looking like its heading towards £1= $1. The main support at 1.35 has broken and the next real strong support is at 1.05.
Its been hard to find a good entry to short this and im looking to short this if it re-test the break out point at 1.35. Stops would have to be massive as due to the crazy volatility associated with exit of Europe.


Quarterly chart so as you can see where the next main support comes in at..It goes back to 1985 :ohmy: :ohmy:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd27thjune2016.png


daily chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd27thjune2016daily.png
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GBPUSD 01 Mar 2016 11:57 #34

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if your looking to buy euro , its currently at a resistance now so a good level to buy if you had too for holiday,but the overall trend for gbp/eur is down so needs to clear the down trend for it to signal a change.
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GBPUSD 24 Feb 2016 11:44 #35

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no turn around here today...£ suffering.. :silly: :blink: perhaps I should start buying those Euros now, could be parity come August ? :dry:
Last Edit: 24 Feb 2016 11:45 by AdeMcG.
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GBPUSD 23 Feb 2016 23:05 #36

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all I want to know is...when to buy my Euro's for holidays :)

And yes I know this is £ vs $ but if the £ goes up against the $ then against the Euro the £ will be stonger....right ? :silly: :dry:
Last Edit: 23 Feb 2016 23:07 by AdeMcG.
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GBPUSD 23 Feb 2016 22:15 #37

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This has been dumped hard, however i think it may be about turn around... ;)
The weekly shows this is on the falling support channel trendline.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xyHcAaIuImxh5H1AvbI=

The daily shows a massive Bullish divergence.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ikLoG5l6M26k+ExcXtg=

So i'm long @ 1.4018, with my stop just below $1.40.

Regards,
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Last Edit: 23 Feb 2016 22:20 by Trendfriend.
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GBPUSD 25 Jun 2015 18:28 #38

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This is going to pump big style, over coming days. Watch one hour chart for entry....

Dyor imo

B)
Ws on travels
Last Edit: 25 Jun 2015 18:28 by WaveSurfer.
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GBPUSD 04 Jun 2015 09:59 #39

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Free trade now :cheer: :cheer: :cheer: :cheer:





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd4thjune2015.png
remo wrote:
Im long from the re-test of the 50day moving average. This came after the bullish engulfing pattern yesterday and the fact that it went half way down the candle today and the 50day moving average was at roughly the same place. The area where this bounced yesterday is the 50% fib as well.
so my stop is below yesterdays low so around 100 points.
ive drawn the trend line from yesterdays touch
Im hoping all these factors should give the currency a bit of support from here and move this higher.
My target for this is the 200 Exponential moving average which is at 1.5523
currency are not for the faint hearted :P :P

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd3rdjune2015.png
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GBPUSD 03 Jun 2015 13:04 #40

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Im long from the re-test of the 50day moving average. This came after the bullish engulfing pattern yesterday and the fact that it went half way down the candle today and the 50day moving average was at roughly the same place. The area where this bounced yesterday is the 50% fib as well.
so my stop is below yesterdays low so around 100 points.
ive drawn the trend line from yesterdays touch
Im hoping all these factors should give the currency a bit of support from here and move this higher.
My target for this is the 200 Exponential moving average which is at 1.5523
currency are not for the faint hearted :P :P

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd3rdjune2015.png
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GBPUSD 14 Mar 2015 16:47 #41

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Hi TF!

Glad to hear all is well with you. Missed your input in the Chatroom, so hopefully will see you there soon!

Yeah, it the USD is spanking the hell out of everything - including GBP.

I placed my stop at 1.4690 because of the June 2010 break out; given how close it now looks to stopping me out, I have a few options:

1. Close ASAP and realise the loss
2. Move the stop loss further down to protect my position
3. Let it be, and let the chips fall where they may.

I've gone with option 2, and moved it to: 1.4350


Take care and best of luck - here's hoping it plays out for both of us!
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GBPUSD 13 Mar 2015 12:09 #42

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Hi Libero,

I'm good thanks, hope your keeping well buddy..

Just wondering, why your stop is 1.4690??
I think this could tumble quickly if 1.4790 (ish) breaks, could head to low 1.40's possibly :ohmy:

Just about holding on now.
ATB,
Trendfriend.
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GBPUSD 13 Mar 2015 11:47 #43

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TF!

Hope you're well man.


In preparation, I did state this yesterday afternoon, but it looks good for light entry at this level (1.48245):

The ol' greenback continues to hammer everything in sight....

Cable trade? strong support at 1.48.

Long from there with a stop at 1.46900.

www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cot...lay=discussion&it=li

Good luck all!
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GBPUSD 13 Mar 2015 10:51 #44

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Weekly chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...=&symbol=FX%5EGBPUSD

Long here @ 1.4820. stop below 1.4790.

This bounced of the long term support line... ;)

Regards,
Trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 13 Mar 2015 10:51 by Trendfriend.
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GBPUSD 06 Feb 2015 11:48 #45

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Being risk averse I am waiting for the close above the trend line. Nice heads up Remo.
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GBPUSD 06 Feb 2015 10:36 #46

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Great trade :P :P :P :P
should be a free trade now :P



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusg6thfeb2015.png
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remo
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GBPUSD 04 Feb 2015 10:33 #47

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keep an eye out for a 123 low breakout..
trendline is near by as well


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd4thfeb2015.png
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GBPUSD 19 Jan 2015 11:37 #48

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Possible 123 low formation??
This is one to watch over the next few days as a break out could send this to test main down trend which has been in play since july 2014 and a break of this could signal a possible change in trend.
So one to watch . Obviously you cant pre-empt the trade.Early signal would be the 123 low breakout and then place the stops below the 2 point.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gbpusd19thjan2015.png
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GBPUSD 19 Dec 2014 12:11 #49

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your DOW trade wasn't though :woohoo:
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GBPUSD 19 Dec 2014 11:26 #50

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this trade was a losing trade :angry: :angry: :angry:
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