Hey TF, I hope all is well and good to see posts from you again.

Yes, very worrying times, no new longs here, took my GKP summer investment and increased DIVI off the table and gone to cash for now.

Lets see what bargains present themselves on the other side.

seeing possible move to .96 to $ here...

Never even imagined we would be saying those numbers for sterling!

atb,
trendfriend

Down, down and more down!
I always look at sterling and for me it shows the state of the country!

Failure after failure!
will we see 1 to 1 soon??

Hope everyone's keeping well?
Enjoy the weekend all.

atb,
Trendfriend

Hello Libero,

welcome back!!! long time no see?
Good to hear you and yours doing well...
Hope to see more of us coming back and keeping this more lively with charts...
Have a good weekend, n regards to your family
Ta G

Hey Buddy,

Yeah all ok man, all are fine - thank you!

I hope you & your loved ones are in good health.

Yeah, I'm around, but, still over-loaded with commitments, so will try and take some time out and smell the roses so to speak!

Yeah the USD is doing its thing - When I wrote about it in a different thread, I never realised it would go completely nuts to the upside. The second best performing "mainstream" currency on the planet.

The Best?

The Russia Rouble of course - some 41% UP on the Dollar!


Unbelieveble - but these are the times we live in.


For us - well those in the UK, it's clearly a proper struggle with a weak Pound (I hope you're all finding a way to hedge this mess). It looks the Pound is fast becoming an EM currency now. What a pity, but there it is.


Not sure if you agree with my technical outlook or not, but either way, would love to get your take on it.

Wishing the very best.

Trendfriend wrote:

Hello...hello!
Where have you been hiding?
hope you and yours are well?
Nice to hear from you again.

looks like the dollar is only just getting in the mood!
Sterling looks a bit like a bit like Boris himself!
Going down and quickly!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Hey Folks,

I hope you're all keeping safe and well (and navigating some strange times!)

I follow a few crosses closely, such as Cable, Swissy and Eurodollar (as some incomes comes in these currencies)

Right, onto Cable. rather than suggest that we've got a crude H&S forming, I'm going to take a bold risk and suggest that we've got an Inverse Cup and Handle going here.

In any case, technically, both patterns look bearish.

Central Banking intervention (The Fed Res rather than the BoE) could flip this all upside down, so be careful.

(in the immortal words of Remo, DYOR)

Wishing you all the very best, and I hope to be back with meaningful contributions (it looks like most of the work has been on the shoulders of LongTermView, Paitech, TrendFriend and Remo for far too long!)

One of my and TrendFriend's favourite currency crosses - Cable



It's failing a number of attempts to the upside (thus far), and is there a hint of a Right Shoulder forming? (assuming we can agree that the pattern forming is a H&S!)

My line in the sand previously (to add to shorts), has been 1.2295, as luck would have it, this may well be the "seal" of the right shoulder.

Let's See.

Usual Disclaimers Apply - and be safe folks!

Trendfriend wrote:
Hi TF,

good calls.

I feel that too much "Central Planning" has been involved in keeping cable up, namely:

1. Fed Swap Lines to ease USD demand in nations
2. Fed's "whatever it takes" printing
3. UK's fiscal and monetary metrics haven't been fully disclosed
4. The state of play in Fibre (EUR/USD) - EU's own plans.
5. Lack of transparency over Brexit Negotiations

But the charts and Technical Analysis cut through all that (I hope). Once attention refocuses on this (and that could be a while!), then who knows. For now, Dollar safety due to a shakey market is doing its thing.

Be Well.

gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...rZ3xUxPoQ7qcVxhHZOc=

interesting this because it actually broke above the 50 day ema line and managed a 1,2,3 low.....
just like the dow it looked very promising for bulls....

as things stand it does look like a bull trap reversal...and in the longer term it has been making lower highs.
while its in this trend channel could it make another lower low?...
especially if we send a broader equity sell off?

really tempted to short this....

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PpdHSSuCwNiDDgVw0%3D

trying to do a higher high....or 1,2,3 low breakout...
also the 50 day ema line is around the breakout level...around 1.2485

one to keep and eye on...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ZqGgRLBTW1D%2FSUU%3D

does look like a bull flag...good spot there...

it needs to get that that 50 day ema line and the rsi needs to get above the resistance...if it does that then the 200 day eme line looks on.....

Until then this could just be a relief rally from a overdone rsi level imvo....

The setup does look more bullish then a week or so ago...so lets see...but i still think on a mid/longer term view more down again tbh...because its still making l/lows

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Remarkable turn-around for Cable.

Macro / Fundamentals wise, it's still a tough call: fear, demand for greenback, and ironically, removing interest rates along with fiscal and monetary bazookas (which have created a new line in the sand to build strength from) vs Central Bank swap lines to weaken demand.

Technical, whether this is a bull flag or a mini-penant, it still looks bullish.



Good Luck People (trading aside, please do stay safe and do your bit - this virus is banking on a mistake or an oversight, an act of carelessness...)

Well this is confusing / interesting / tough to trade?

1. We've got a death cross formed (or forming depending on the platform I guess!)

2. We've got an inverse head and shoulders on the RSI (does this even work?)

On the macro front we've got fiscal and monetary policy working in tandem to weaken the USD, but against a fearful backdrop of FEAR, which is bullish for the USD. Lastly, you've got a Pound on its way to be pseudo-EM currency in about nine months, as it loses its "protection".



So, where will this go?

Libero wrote:
absolutely....good call....i didn't expect that shows what i know

atb
trendfriend

Not the comeback of the century, but certainly the comeback of the week.

Trendfriend wrote:
Harry Ramsden, your finest cod n' chips please!

1.20 is holding strong (as you said, what was firm support, has become firm resistance), but I'm still thinking that dollar softness could bite. The G20 will demand a weaker dollar or enhanced swap lines.

(whatever happened to a free market - free from meddling hands eh? )

Stay Safe!

Had a stop in place... while I went for a run...
Good job it was placed in profit... some fish and chips money... here as well Libero!

Atb,
Trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Great Spot TF!

I'm also optimistic, but keep an eye on the dollar index (horrible one to trade - the margin sux!). Everytime it topped out it retreated.

Took a small short at 1.1996.
Stop just 150 pips. So 1.215

Let’s see...
Atb,
Trendfriend

1.20 was strong support that should now strong resistance....i honestly do not think this get back above that level for a looooong time...
not until we see the back of the bear market....

atb
trendfriend

remo wrote:
I agree broadly with your view Remo. I grew up beleiving that a nation's currency should be strong - and I'll always believe that.

I was however thinking about the price of Austerity, and if bonds are issued to pay for the massive borrowing, it would be good if the pound is weaker to pay off the debt without hurting the tax-payer too much.

Either way, it's gonna be painful for the country (except the likes of Crispin Odey and other self-styled "heros of the nation")

On the short term moves, Cable opened 1.17, so I wonder if can rally to back to 1.20 as a first goal - big ask I know. Some folks said that the pain of Dec 2020 is simply being brought forward, I don't know)

The problem with a weak pound is that businesses will end up paying way more than there used to for products and then will pass on the cost to public.
Weak pound is really bad for our economy .
It’s great for exporting but importing it’s really bad..
It’s good if you have income that’s in dollars from selling abroad in dollars currently...
But overalll it’s really bad for us Brits as we get poorer .
Imagine if you were to go on holiday and you get far fewer dollars for your pound which makes every thing more costly...

Trendfriend wrote:
I thought it looked ominus TrendFriend, but I'm not so sure; agreed, the charts have been brilliant thus far,but I do wonder if Macro events will trump (no pun honest!) will take over; i.e. Fed Swap Lines with other central banks (including the BoE), Unlimited QE and the possibility of Helicopter money drops... All of this will start weighing in against the USD one feels.

But who knows!

For the first time, I believe that devaluation of the GBP might actually be a good thing for the UK, not because of so-called "patriots" (Alledged traitors more like!) Rees-Mogg and co think so (because of vested interests). Rather, because the amount of debt the UK is taking on will result in further Austerity down the line (more pain for the NHS and the tax-payer); and so with a weak GBP, the debt could be gently inflated away, but let's hope it won't be like Weimar Republic Inflation levels!

Anyway, these are just thoughts. Who knows

Stay Safe TF and the ChartsView Fam! (look at me, I said "fam", I must be cool )

Libero wrote: gbpusd-daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ElFfI5vjSEuSgEtpA%3D

looks like another bear flag here....Libero....your 1.05/1.08 target may just become a reality in the next few days imvho..

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

This is unbelievable....

Kudos TrendFriend, It's been wrestling with 1.14-1.17 after it broke down from 1.20, but if 1.14 gives way, I daren't think that this could go to 1.05-1.08.

There's gonna be pain within the Treasury and BoE too.

excellent call TF, this is sinking.

gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+iOKiXW/k5VJIlojfM4=

is this forming a bear flag?? close to the key 1.20 level..

I'm thinking of a long at 1.20....but switching to short if that level breaks...so need to nimble with this...as 1.20 is strong support which could turn to resistance is busted....

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

This took its time....

Maybe we didn't have patience to see off the H&S on the monthly, but it's getting sold off hard (a delayed effect perhaps?)

I'd like to see if it revisits 1.20 - and falling through this time (I know, I know, we earn our crust in GBP, but if Jacob and friends like Odey can short this country and get called heros and patriots, why can't I?)

Stay safe people.

gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FlUwt89+x6Nnyobc80k=

coming back up...
looks to be in this channel...1.2945 should hold....and then back down towards 1.27??

lets see...
atb,wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

gbp-usd daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...5lUMFJxn85u9Hojd8%3D

this retested the triangle and failed....still short here...looking to add if it makes a lower low....

atb,wdik
trendfriend

Good call!

cable - gbp-usd daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...GIZ8T1Dhex3ROpTw820=

triangle breakdown i'm short at 1.2840.
stop at 1.3050

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

gbp-usd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PSFWOVPsNyhQcPeGo%3D

looks like its back below the 200 day em line again....

Is this going all the way back down to the bottom of the channel??

Giving this one more go here....short again 1.25537...stop 1.25800....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

That went well

short here at 1.2570....

watching closely....will close it out if go a couple of hundred pips above 1.2575

lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

gbpusd - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aQhEXL%2FmknKIVwg%3D

i was looking at this earlier as well....
For me the key is the 200 day ema line, until a break and hold above that level, this is still in a downtrend...
lets see....i may get tempted to short the 200 day ema line level at 1.2575....

for the h&s....
Head and shoulder is the pattern for a top confirmation....
to confirm a bottom, we need a inverted h & s....
this may well have formed a inv h&s, its not a perfect inv h&s, but they don't need to be perfect....either way i make the neckline for the inv h&s around that 200 day ema line feature...
so the key area is that 1.2575....above that time to go long....and buy the dips....while below the 200 day ema, still short the rallies imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thats some serious move up, don't think my sell setup is still valid,

Another potential short setup on cable, this time inside bar(unless it change be the end of the day).
sell 12194, stop 12304, target 12000 area

Cheers Madmaxx!

Yes, I saw the double bottom - which could end up being a triple bottom the way things are going...

Lots of liquidity at 1.190-1.200. (I'm told) institutional are buying at these levels as a hedge ahead of further weakness - but who knows.

I'm starting to think what's happening now is exclusively rich folks who are long vs rich folks who are short - all being played out in this toxic arena.

Hi, it's way to early to call this h&s, might be double bottom earlier, but who knows.At this stage i can't see anything obvious yet.

Hey Folks,

Well, never a dull day in Cable land...

TrendFriend showed a wicked H&S pattern on the weekly a while back, but I wonder, is there now one forming on the daily?

Also, not the 50 DMA couldn't hold today...

Good Luck all, happy to receive feedback (correction more like!), and be safe out there folks!

I've used this channel line to take profit from my short trade, and now we have another setup ready move lower, another fakey pattern just about to trigger below 12265 and 12226 stop 12414

gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Qo9%2FYZWPGLByCQI%3D

Not quite a perfect trend channel bounce....but 1.2180/1.22 was target before a bounce as per the chart from 26 sep....and 1.22 was todays low...

The second test of that level and channel could be interesting....still more down here imvho....but lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Indeed TrendFriend (another quality post).

Cable retreating back to 1.20 (liquid heaven) is on track - albeit slowly.

1.09 is talked about a lot, but I'd repeat what I said about extreme projected scenarios, a breach of 1.05 is going to be a bigger issue than simply banking a very healthy profit.... This is a game-changer in a different way.


Corrections, Trades are completely separate to "re-evaluations" - which is what would happen if Cable breaches 1.05 or thereabouts.

A couple of former colleagues, one from South Africa, the other from north Africa (Tunisia I think), pointed out to me the difference between a correction and re-revalutation of a country's currency:

The SA Rand was trading around 6 to the USD a few years ago, before reaching 16. What are the chances it would head back to single digits? It's done for.

The Tunisian Dinar (I think?) was trading at parity with the USD a few years back, now, it's 3:1. What's the chance of re-balance? It's done for.


Living costs & conditions in those nations have resulted in declines, for the USD is the money-stick the world abides by (for now at least!) - That's why I'm apprehensive about potential gains on a cable trade. I'm nervous about looking away from the trading statement and onto what's happening outside

Wishing everyone here profit and prosperity, and above all, Peace!

gbpusd-daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aSS1pFbeSIDa+7MEyEo=

with 1.24 and 1.2350 both busted, while below those two numbers, the next target around 1.22 imvho...

i think a drop below 1.19 the recent low....should see that 1.05...
the other views seem extreme....but then so is the politics atm!!!

so who knows...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Both scenarios are brutal, (the first one could be very interesting / rewarding),

but that second one....

That - That - could make concerns change way beyond financial gains in the market.

According to Elliot waves there are to potential situations for Gbp,

gbpusd - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...m3p/FWvv+bKHLqDMo8A=

the 50 day ema has been broken....and the rsi support trendline is also busted....

this has the potential to get really nasty imvho...

atb
trendfriend

Hey Folks,

Naturally, agree with your points (but I'm biased!)

Now, whatever the political outcome, doesn't mean the end of a possible downside in my humble view.

The heavy players in the city (and take it all with a pinch of salt), suggest that the real line of liquidity - 1.20 could break to go to 1.09. Now that, would be both, a bonanza and a disaster!