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GKP daily and hourly 02/10/13

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First here's the daily chart. We can clearly see the break of the uptrend support would gives cause for concern but there are also some bullish aspects to this chart so there are some mixed signals.

There's clearly a descending wedge down from the 240p top which is usually a bullish pattern (called a pennant) and despite a dip out of it the sp still closed just on the wedge base.

The last 4 days have also formed a very similar pattern to the period from 19 to 24 June with dropping price and increasing volume and if the SP does turn up here then there will be a positive RSI divergence which forms when RSI makes a lower low but price makes a higher low during an uptrend (this is often a continuation pattern).

All of the above, apart from the trendline break, is a bit spurious of course, but there are bullish signals in the hourly chart:

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Again, we see the descending wedge or pennant and what could have been a fade to the downside today but the interesting bit is the RSI - it's in a triangle formed from the downtrend from the 240p high (which did not come from a bearish divergence) and the shorter term uptrend (which did come from a divergence).

In my opinion, whichever way the RSI breaks out of this pattern will determine the short term direction of the price. An upside breakout might also give an early indication of a price breakout above the top of the wedge but we'll have to wait and see about that. If price closes above that wedge top then we should be good for higher prices; a close below today's low would target 169/171p and 166p. Anyone long will not want to see a close below 166p.

Not shown on this hourly chart are the stochastic and MACD histogram, both of which have turned up in a positive manner with the MACD looking like it's also about to cross into positive territory. These are bullish signals but can turn round quickly if price moves against them.

As ever with GKP, there's little that's straightforward so please bear in mind that this is all only m
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