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Downtrend Still Dominant

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There wasn't any sign of a convincing bounce at the 141p 61.8% Fib level so it seems to me that the most likely option remains wave C down from 260p. There is an alternative big picture count which has the whole move from the original 203p high as a very big correction (including the 450p high) but we'll leave that for now as the only additional possibility that option gives us is that of a new low below 87p as far as I can work out.

Had this been wave 2 of a new uptrend I'd have expected more volume and a reversal candle pattern to form at this level but neither occurred and last week's weekly candle looks quite bearish.

So where does that leave us? Well, it's still possible that the new uptrend is on but it will need to bounce from the off on Monday and will need to take out the 147p and 151p levels quickly followed by 166p.

I think it's more likely that we're in wave 5 of C and that presents us with some difficulty in picking the bottom as there are quite a few options which still comply with EWT. The most obvious option is that this move down from 260p is forming a bullish wedge (or an ending diagonal triangle if you prefer) which would have the bottom around the next touch of the wedge support. Clearly this price level reduces daily so the target depends on how long it takes to get there. The key levels to note are the horizontal supports at 119p (probably too late for that), 112p and 87p. There's also a less obvious support at 103/4p.

It's possible that this final wave within wave C is truncated as previously discussed in which case it could end above 126p  in which case the most likely level is 133/4p.

The one thing we can be definite about with the above weekly count (remember, there are alternatives to this) is that it can't go below 87p. If the SP does go below that price then the above count MUST be wrong.

Given that there weren't any significant bullish divergences on the daily chart at 126p I think it's most likely that there will be a new low below that price with the missing divergences (there don't HAVE to be divergences but they do often occur).
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In this daily view we can see that at the recent high of 166p there was, in fact, a negative RSI divergence. This is when, during a downtrend, the RSI makes a new high but prices make a lower high. This is usually a bearish continuation pattern and therefore adds weight to the possiblility of a new low.

In summary, it's my opinion now that the original analysis of wave 5 of C was correct and there is likely more downside to come and I'd favour a new low below 126p. Where that will be is almost impossible to call at this stage but I've listed the main supports above. A break above 151p and, much more importantly, 166p will negate this possibility.
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Guest Monday, 19 November 2018