Here's the Dow futures 4 hour chart showing a wave count for what I believe to be the 5th wave up in the sequence from June 2012. This covers the period from the cash chart trendline bounce in the last blog update.
The wave 2 has a 50% retrace (it was a lot less on the cash chart as it often is for futures corrective waves) and the spike up to the main downtrend resulted in a perfect 61.8% retracement to from what I think is wave ii of 3 in this sequence.
This makes sense from a logic point of view since the next wave, iii of 3, ought to be the most powerful and that would coincide with a trendline break from which we'd expect a strong move anyway. I would expect overnight futures tonight to go no lower than 15040 of this is to play out and that level offers a great risk/reward for a long with a stop below the 15020 breakout point of the last rise. The target for wave 3 here would be c. 15684 but there's clearly the all time price high at 15542 in the way of that.
The wave 2 has a 50% retrace (it was a lot less on the cash chart as it often is for futures corrective waves) and the spike up to the main downtrend resulted in a perfect 61.8% retracement to from what I think is wave ii of 3 in this sequence.
This makes sense from a logic point of view since the next wave, iii of 3, ought to be the most powerful and that would coincide with a trendline break from which we'd expect a strong move anyway. I would expect overnight futures tonight to go no lower than 15040 of this is to play out and that level offers a great risk/reward for a long with a stop below the 15020 breakout point of the last rise. The target for wave 3 here would be c. 15684 but there's clearly the all time price high at 15542 in the way of that.