This has now made a new low below that wave 3 low so it looks to be forming a set of 5 waves down from the recent 127p top:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/XELdaily17_05_13.gif

We'll have to look at the bigger picture to see whether this is likely to be a final move down or the first move of a longer series. For now, though, that trendline is looking quite good for a bounce (round about the 82p level) as there will need to be at least a correction after these 5 waves down.

One thing I would say on this is that until the low at 107.75p gets taken out there remains the possibility that this move up from 92p is a wave 4 up and not the start of a new trend.

So far it's been limited to almost exactly the 38% Fib of the drop from 124.69p which does suggest that this may be what's happening:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/XELdaily10_05_13.gif

The form of that last rise to 127p seems to suggest that it wasn't an impulse wave too (just like GKP's move from 141p to 260p).

For me the cut-off points are clear on this: a close above 107.75p and it should be a new uptrend; a new low below 91.71p and there'll be a 5 wave sequence down from 127p which, although it should give a bounce off the main trendline, would not bode well in the longer term.

twl2009 wrote:
I'm basing it on the daily.
Obviously different time frames will have a different result. I use the daily for my signals as I'm looking for a potential trend change .intra day charts like the hourly or 4 hour charts are used for short term trading so you will get the signals on there earlier but the real signal comes from the daily .
There's nothing wrong with shorter time frames trading
I like to see a clear 123 signal . You can use 1 candle to have the 1 and 2 points together but the problem I have with this is you get a lot more false signals. Also with a 123 low even when you get the signal the proper verification comes when the price moves above a significant near by high . That will verify the move.

Remo, viewed on a 4hr chart this looks very much like a 123 low breakout to me, but I will defer to your expertise.

It's marginal but I have Wednesday's low above Monday's low with a bounce in between and a new high yesterday.

Those lows are the other way round on the hourly though.

Still, looks like a complete wave pattern and an RSI breakout. We'll see.

Jackozy wrote:

That's not a 123 low breakout. It needs to go down then break above .

Great call on this one twl2009!

Nice bullish close to just about complete a 123-low breakout and a close back above the uptrend support. Looks like a completed corrective wave sequence down from 127p to the 78.6% Fib too. Nice:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/XELdaily09_05_13.gif

www.dropbox.com/s/og0jgylejmekaip/Screen...%20at%2017.09.34.png

RSI breakout and failure swing....

This is currently broken through the 2 levels of support together. This could head towards the main up trend line at 80 p now.

skipper10 wrote:
Hi skipper10
On that day prices did not go as low as the price on my chart 35.84 as i was watching this share on that day.I think that a lot of charting software has different prices for that day so i personally have not used the low on that day as an important level due to this fact.
when prices on a chart show massive moves on a day like this you have to be careful with using the data as may be incorrect.
Your price is different from my one and im certain that my one is wrong on this matter. Its all down to one trade that went through in the books on that day.
Your trend line is how i normally draw them but on this occassion i would not draw it using that low. Just due to the questionable day.

Hi Remo I get this for trend line

Hi twl2009
Im looking at going long on first attempt of 96 with a tight stop of about 5 points.
96 being the trend line and a horizontal support near by. This level is worth a trade on a first attempt basis.

Xel has failed to break out of the downtrend on the RSI today. It will be interesting to see if it now finds its way to the rising trendline that is currently at 96.25. If it did this would probably coincide with the RSI dipping into oversold.
looking at the chart Xel has always bounced off the 30.

Anyone thinking of trading this?

Thoughts welcome

Hoping for a good day on reserve upgrade, where do people think this will end today? seems to be further away from. Oil (2015) will this keep the price down or will the investors come in now?

Elsgly - the trend seems to be up. However as pointed in this thread, there are many resistances that need to be broken first.
There seems to be many areas where the price will consolidate IMHO and we might just have seen another area around the 125 mark for now where this could consolidate a bit, purely judging by today's action.

However, as mentioned 138 could be a target for now and where it could yet consolidate.

There is a H&S pattern in play and also I am also keeping an eye for the rounded bottom (not to be confused with the rounded brazilian bottom pattern...) - see link below
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart...erns:rounding_bottom

All the best

Reached 124.2 where do the charts say we go from here, that's unless the takeover talk has legs and then I'm hoping we are on the way back to £4 not the £2 that is being talked about, it's been a long hard road from £3.69 to here !!!!

this is going really nicely - watch ~124.2 and then ~127.8, big areas to get through.

This tested breakout point and held..That should be a good thing



dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/xel4thmarch.png

dyor

That should read "at the 203/5p high", not the "20p" high lol

It did happen intraday but I also think that it's a rare occasion when you can ignore that price point on the chart.

What happened was that the buy side order book was quite sparse (as is often the case on stocks like XEL which are still largely MM books) and the MMs were all positioned at pretty much the same buy side price. Market sell orders took their entire positions and left the buy side completely empty while they re-figured their positions. An unfortunate seller got their order filled at 35.84p at that time (negotiated trade probably). I don't think it was an AT trade, probably an O trade but it was certainly outside the normal trading range.

Anyway, I'm thinking that if I ignore it (and the bullish divs at the subsequent low of 64.75p suggest that that was the genuine low to me), and do a projection of the move up from 64.75 to 139.4 and back to 83 we get a interesting target at precisely the 20p high. This would also formed nested cup and handles if the shorter term targets of 139 and 150 are met from the 83>110>94.5p move are met.

There are some nice convergences of targets possible here.

I was watching xel on that day and you could not buy at that price during the day. I think that price happened after the close( not 100% about this) but I remember a lot of people talking about it at the time. Its one of those rare occasions when the spike down was not a real one in my opinion. I don't think you could have traded any where near that area.

It's showing on Metastock

Thanks

Quick question: can someone confirm whether that spike down on 26 June 2012 to 35.84p is a valid price point please? Is it on Metastock?

Just wondering as it affects a targets.

TIA.

Just to add to the mix......

Perhaps something to think about - could just be a repeat of Sept 2012...

All the best

dl.dropbox.com/u/4385922/XEL_potential%20move.png

Hi RG2,

Closed above 110p resistance and at the inverse H&S neckline at 113.5p so bullish pattern playing out. Resistances are 139p and 150p, quite strong, so both below your average. There ought to be a fair amount of money waiting for a confirmation of close above 110p to buy as that's the higher high following a higher low.

Can't make any promises, but I added at 111p today.

GL.

Hi Remo,

my avg in XEl is 166. Wondering if I need to put in some more money to bring my avg down to 135. Or will I need to wait for a long time until it crosses 166. Thanks. RG2

If this can finish above 110 then it would be bullish and id target the 135 area.

Yep, that's a bullish close however there is plenty of resistance ahead so let's not get carried away:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/XELdaily25_02_13.gif

There's 110p resistance and the iH&S neckline at 112.5p to get through first. Target then is 138/9p initially followed by a retrace and then 150p IMHO.

GL

A close above 102.5 is very significant.

Ichimoku Trader has today confirmed today was a strong signal.

dl.dropbox.com/u/4385922/XEL_ichimoku.png

All the best to my fellow long term holders. It could be turning to some heavy duty movements...

Keep an eye on this today - looks like it's making a move. Still needs to close above 110-112.5p to open up target at 139p resistance:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/XELdaily22_02_13.gif

Broad-rock wrote:
Hi Broad-rock,

Sorry for not coming back to you on this earlier.

In this particular case (XEL), yes, I was referring to the RSI downtrend formed from the bearish divergence at the recent 139p high.

In general, I find that RSI trendlines work reasonably well but only when they form from either a bullish or a bearish divergence. Breakouts from these RSI trendlines can be false (I have some guidelines to tell me when to expect these) so it's always a good idea to sell the first resistance.

There's a bit more to this which I've not yet ironed out so I don't want to say much more, just that in the past I've noticed that there have been false price breakouts in some shares but the RSI trendlines have worked perfectly and I would not have been caught out if I'd followed RSI rather than price.

It's a bit of a work in progress.

ATB

I have it as 102



dl.dropbox.com/u/24866576/February%20201...D%20ORD%20040213.gif

M.

Please can someone confirm the closing mid price for xel today?

Many thanks

Hi Jackozy,

Can I ask about the RSI back test you mentioned ? (this is only valid if the RSI trend is formed from a divergence).

I think you mean the divergence at the top and not the bottom.

Hi RMc,

I just chose to show the chart I did on the 16th as it's the one which shows the Fibs, H&S, RSI trendline backtest and the old downtrend ie it illustrated the points I was making.

No other reason mate.

I keep old charts for a while so that when I check back I can see what I was thinking at the time and therefore I can check to see how my thinking compares to what happened in reality. It's a really good way of learning.

Hi Jack

Why does your chart end mid Jan?





Regards RMc

Hi Nev,

I've been tracking a possible inverse H&S on this share for some time. I had a target entry at 94p but it only went to 94.5p so I had to buy in at 100 in the end. What really does if for me is the perfect backtest of the RSI downtrend breakout (this is only valid if the RSI trend is formed from a divergence).

Here's the chart from the 16th Jan:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/XELdaily16_01_13.gif

Still looks to be playing out nicely but needs a close above the neckline at c. 111.5p to open up targets of 138p and then 150p IMHO.

I'm a perma Bull on this , so any sign of hope is enough for me to get warm inside. Everyone else thinking about this share, be careful, it could cost you a lot in terms of time, energy and more importantly money. Best wait for a big move, as this could be a zombie for another year.

Xcite Energy can be summed up as Big Up, Big Down leading to Big Confusion and a range bound market.
However, more recently it's formed quite a neat chart pattern. So if it breaks out of this there is a possibility of some more upside.