This is a weekly chart, you can see there was a test a very long term trendline, and it failed to break aobve it.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...iM%3D&symbol=L%5EXEL

This is still in bear mode, however it looks like it could break above soon, as there's good support around the 60p level, and it seems selling looks to be exhausted around these levels.

In the short term, the RSI is at support, and it looks like a trendline is forming. So a good area to go long.
Wait for the 50 day at 66p, if being extra safe
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...2+rY=&symbol=L%5EXEL

Regards,
Trendfriend

Approaching 123 low at 69.16 so worth putting on the watch list.


www.screencast.com/t/Tg1jiBz8YZ5p

Hi Remo,

how are you doing. Its been a long time I have not been very active in trading. Not recovered from my losses in rrl and xel. I am thinking to sell all my xel shares and take some money back.
Any idea if it will ever cross £150 from the current price £0.93p.

Many thanks Remo

RG2

Here's the daily chart showing a close below the uptrend support on much higher than normal volume:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...XELdaily01_12_13.png

This could drop back as far as 64.75p or even lower now IMHO. GKP did something very similar on the drop from 260p a year or so ago and it's still not managed to regain those levels and hold them. BLVN's another...as is SXX (whose chart looks quite similar from the 30p double top).

Supports are 88.75p, 83p and 64.75p. Resistance is now the old uptrend support which is c. 104p early next week (rising daily).

Hence the importance of waiting for confirmation on close of day.

Closed at 102 so no hammer and, more importantly, closed below uptrend support on decent volume (for XEL) so looks in poor shape now unless it can get back above that trendline quickly.

Best to wait for a new higher low and then a 123-low breakout now imho. It could go a lot lower after today.

Could be a monster hammer here today but needs to close back above the uptrend at c. 104p for both the trend and the hammer.

Lot of stops got hit on this to take it down imho but it held at first major support below trendline which was 88.75p (hit 90).

Gonna needs wide stops below 90p though.

Should be a free trade now here. Needs to close > 116/7p for a downtrend breakout otherwise it could resume the drop.

PS A close below that trendline brings into play supports at 88.75, 83 and 64.75.

This chart me a little of SXX leading up to, and down from, its double top at 30p so be careful. A 123-low trade might be the best policy here.

Today's close will be important IMHO.

This is currently at the uptrend support from the 64.75p low and key 104p level. Here's yesterday's closing chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...XELdaily20_11_13.png

Just for those who still follow this one.

I forgot to add, on the Weekly, although it has broken out of its high from March this year, it has still to breach the other main point from September 2012.

Daily - Lots of indicators looking like it may go overbought soon, (RSI @ 73 points) but as we all know, it can go there and stay overbought for quite some time.

Also a positive was the hold of the 123p level after a back test.

plus.google.com/photos/11021777614980907...10217776149809078048


What is a little disappointing is the lack of volume behind this move, it wouldn't indicate a seismic event any time soon.

Weekly time-frame, perhaps the 131p level (current 200d MA) may provide a bit of a barrier.
As always, thoughts, discussion & comments most appreciated.

Thanks for looking into XEL Jackozy, it does look like a new trend has started, where it will end perhaps no one knows, but if positive news is released, maybe will will see a return to value?
Best of luck with your long.

Interesting last couple of days here. Perhaps just buying on the expectation of imminent news, but the charts are all that matters so here goes....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...XELdaily21_09_13.png

Ignore the silly green candles - that's freebie software for you! - the key thing to note on this daily chart was Thursday's close above the downtrend resistance and then, more importantly, Friday's gap up on open, drop to test the trendline and bounce back up as that test was bought. Daily RSI closed bang on resistance which would normally be a sell for me, however....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...ELweekly21_09_13.png

On the above weekly chart we can see that the RSI has broken out of the main resistance trendline (the daily RSI trendline is also from the all time high whereas the price one is from a more recent high so they're not equivalents). This suggests to me that a new trend may be in play.

As a result, I'm long on this with stops below Friday's low of 115p.

now into the 120's....looking good for next week to challenge the upper resistance points,

plus.google.com/photos/11021777614980907...10217776149809078048

Remo is this a breakout yet?
It is looking positive for sure ! (in again at 103p)

looking positive, lets see what the close price is though.

www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v...#EkmxcVCZBh9ICrLr.99

What do es every one think of this, it has shot price up to £1.20?

116 has gone AdeMcG and certainly worth a look at the mo back test of down trend line would be nice.

www.screencast.com/t/W3ljjOALkra

Well, it didn't really complete the thrust I expected it to have (upwards) I see the 116 horizontal resistance still in play, but hopefully more momentum upwards is building?

plus.google.com/photos/11021777614980907...10217776149809078048

This is bang on the trend line
It needs to finish above 116 then that would be an symmetrical triangle breakout.
You can see how the top of the symmetrical triangle held this back yesterday.Only charts show these levels

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/xel30thaug.png

I am only hoping to break 166 which is my cost price. Any ideas by when. I am slowly selling all my stocks except for vodafone which i bought at 158. I cannot rrl as my price is too high from the currnt price. I think either it will go down or i hv to wait for 5years. RG2

Xel has broken out possible ascending triangle, could retest of the trendline provide a opportunity?

next resistance 124.69

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/43650856/Xel...%20August%2029th.htm

Tried to attach a file here...not sure it has worked. Look like a pennant forming on this one?

i wouldn't worry about possible patterns like that.
the price has been so subdued for so long any rise is quickly battered.
more importantly would be a break of 140p

then there would be a test of support which was resistance and then hopefully we could get going back up.

in my most humble of opinions.... gla

Cup and handle to form at 113p?

picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/kIqkiOyM5g...EZOI?feat=directlink

Bang in between the support at 107 and the resistance at 112, could go anywhere from here !
Thoughts?

This is beginning to look interesting again:

picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/YpA7my0onq...EZOI?feat=directlink

Closing price.

PS: I think the test of resistance will fail since I see the broad markets turning bearish. We may still visit support again before the apex.

We will see. GL

F4T

How do plot your trendlines?

Thanks

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O+ez64dordEfiykUTY4=

Correct twl2009. Not only that but the H&S played out but failed to reach the support trendline. Currently testing resistance line and above all major MA's. Looks promising to me but it will need to close above the line.

123 breakout today?

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BqjYvRqOAfGpCCcElJS+

Nice symmetrical triangle on this one. We did have a bounce off the 61.8% retracement level the other day but IMO we will likely find the triangle support next rather than a breakout north, so an entry around 95p would seem preferable but note that this eventuality brings the possibility of a full retracement to 88/89.

Note also that we have just completed a H&S formation (neckline in magenta on chart). This is flirting with a break currently which firms up a likely move south.

IMO wait for a break south and buy the trendline support with tight stops.

F4T

I've taken a small and risky long on this due to the RSI trendline from the bullish divergence and 61.8% Fib of the last rise:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...XELdaily13_06_13.gif

The reason I say this is risky is down to the form of the chart - it looks to have had 5 waves down followed by 3 waves up so it looks bearish hence my tight stop just below the 98p level.

H1 chart from Friday shows a clear 5 waves up...
At least that is impulsive
Like Jackozy says, get a retrace trade set up and wait for a great price to get in..
Just be mindful of the big resistance above. There will be plenty of a time to scale into a trade, so you could definitely start small and still make big gains....IF this gets going

Whatever happens, it ain't gonna go in a straight line so I'd wait for a retrace.

If the retrace forms a higher low then a higher high, enter long on the 123-low breakout.

If the retrace forms a higher low then a lower high, enter short on a break of the higher low.

If the retrace goes below 88.75p go short on that break.

There's no point chasing it now. It's put on 22p or 25% since 88.75p and the 61.8% Fib's nearby. It'll have to come back at some point (famous last words lol!)

here you go...



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Xel_Daily_21%20may%20.JPG

Cheers wavesurfer,

Why 106?

providing this can close abv ~106 then it's got a good chance to test the mid 120's

a breach and close below 101/102 then this will start heading down again.

**101/102 > *112/114 > 124 > 127**

*pivot
** supp/res

rgds,

WS

Jackozy, that all makes sense and reading it I realised that I already knew that would be your answer.

SP is flying again today, I am considering dropping some shares if this does reach the OHR today.

Also on my chart there is a small gap at 93.61.

Any thoughts

I am thinking why there are so many prices up or down following the same news. See GKP today (sorry I don't watch XEL), from 150p to 156p and all the way down to 146.75p, then back to 149p. My insight view/my understanding is that massive buyers/sellers have different views of which price is good for them. Each individual has a decision according to his/her judgement. Market makers are accommodating the customers, first are those eager ones who are will to pay a bit high or high to get them or to sell them. So earlier morning during bullish days, always higher. Then they accommodating those will to pay less at Fibs -50%, or -61.8% retracement, even for those wait for bargains at -100% retrace.
Because the buyers and sellers are massive, so it follows a certain patterns of statistic distribution. I just have a gut feeling, no real study on this.

All MMs are for receiving their transaction fees as much as possible as long as there are buys and sells. IMHO.

Welcome for correction.

twl2009 wrote:
Fundamentals are always used as the reason for price movement in AIM stocks (and sometimes it might even be responsible for it!) but it's funny how often the news comes just when the TA suggests a move is needed.

It's also quite odd how, when there is price movement without news, "investors" seem to invoke all sorts of behind the scenes news (II secret info/politics/news is just about to come etc etc) whereas in reality, the price moved off a technical level.

It's always easy in hindsight, of course, to say that such and such a move was required by EWT. The trick is to foresee it and that's far harder. In the case of the 8th April news for XEL, it appears now that it was a wave 2 up. Was it possible to predict it? I don't know, but 83p to 127p (and the failure to get to 139p) appeared to be 3 waves. This might have indicated that a 5 wave move was to follow in which case we might have forecast the move just as it played out.

The problem with looking back and saying "Was this down to TA or the news that came?" is that we'll never know and it's an argument that it's impossible to conclusively win either way. Personally, I don't bother with the news other than out of occasional curiosity these days. My experience has taught me that it almost never pays to follow the fundamentals. It was a lesson that was hard learnt but they're the most important ones.

I just don't think you can ever say "Ahh, but, were it not for this good news, or that bad news, then the chart would look different!". The fact is that the charts look the way they do. People can also interpret news in different ways. The one thing you absolutely cannot argue with is the price history. That's really the thing that's telling you what's going on.

twl2009 wrote:
I could answer that one.
Its basically the ichimuku charts. Its from the far east . Thats where it comes from. Some people know it as cloud charts thats only because david linton released a book on it.

its a very effective way of determining the trend.
UP trend= above cloud
down trend = below the cloud
very simple to use for the basic but obviously theres more to it.
hope that makes sense

Jackozy

Although I try not to bring fundamentals into this, I think the RNS in mid april brought a sea change to XEL. The initial spike reacting to the good news in the RNS and the subsequent decline due to the new timeframe in the same RNS.
I am sure that the chart would have done something completely different since then if not for this RNS, Ive no idea what , but something different.

How do you allow for this in EWT or do you completely ignore it.??

Sorry if this is a boring question that gets asked a lot.

107.75p is still a resistance from the earlier price low, but it no longer has the same relevance as it did when I posted about it since there's been an additional wave down since then.

At the time, 107.75p was the limit for the wave 4 up. Now the pattern has developed and we need to assess where we're at. There's resistance at 104.75p which seems to have held for now and the last price high and 38.2% Fib both at 103.5p.

There ought to be a retrace from here and then a 123-low breakout to form a wave C (I think this is a wave A up now) up to perhaps 112.5p where the 61.8% Fib will meet the downtrend resistance from the 248p high in July 2011.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/XELdaily20_05_13.gif

I was expecting a bounce, I just thought it'd come from a bit lower down so I've missed this move.

Nev
What are the clouds?

Jackozy
What is you few on a short if this reaches 107.75?

XEL - RNS relating to sale of data stimulating the SP today!

Hi twl2009,

What I meant by that statement is that this apparent 5 wave move down from 127p is unlikely to be the last sequence down. I do expect a bounce off 83p (which I'll buy and look to off-load at c. 103/4p) but the whole pattern here has a very bearish possibility as discussed in the chart below.

The whole sequence from the last visit to 83p looks to me like 3 waves followed by the current 5. The only bullish interpretation is for the move since 140p to be a final ABC in a complex correction from 425p. This is possible but there are more bearish options. 83p remains strong support from that last low and the main uptrend support from the 2p days so until that level gets taken out there's always hope!



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/XELdaily19_05_13.gif

PS I was bullish on this until it failed to reach 140p. I'm now bearish on this but I'm still expecting that bounce off 83p area.

i wouldn't get too excited by the divergence... I would get excited if we could break above the clouds.. Though I doubt that will happen any time soon..

Divergence

www.dropbox.com/s/7vgbvnrsev4j2qv/Screen...%20at%2008.45.28.png

"For me the cut-off points are clear on this: a close above 107.75p and it should be a new uptrend; a new low below 91.71p and there'll be a 5 wave sequence down from 127p which, although it should give a bounce off the main trendline, would not bode well in the longer term."

Jackozy, any chance you could expand on what you mean 'would not bode well for the longer term'
If this a wave 5 down what are the implications.


Thanks