Well we got the pull back... so now we can see what develops next week...

You just have to wait for the pull back to get your 2 point...
xWoody wrote:

I think I might just check for a pulse before attempting the kiss of life - LOL!!

Is this on anyone's watch list? It's been in a downtrend for all eternity, but looks like it might be sparking back to life over the last few trading sessions...

I believe that's a nice big doji there (does the size matter?) and not sure if the next couple candles are indicators of any kind, but volumes appears to be picking up. I'm wondering if a bottom could be forming... watching for a 123 low, but would welcome any other thoughts or analysis!

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ryvpimv46q3moqd/Screenshot1.jpg

This just hit the all time low of 4.61 but also broke RSI support. Recently broke support on a descending triangle so not looking great technically. I am not advocating a long but it might bounce today.

This one in my watch list again
Keep an eye on that trend line and horizotal resistance.
Ill be looking to go long above 6.65.
Ideally it would be good if both the trend line and horizontal resistance are around the same price when it breaks out
If 6.65 breaks then this should head towards 8.5


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/slen22ndaug.png

Hi richies82
yep there is a gap where you stated still.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/sle3rdjuly.png

Richies82 wrote:

Nice move today. Am I right in saying there is a gap between 5.2 and 5.4 or did the intraday drop fill this?

an alternative view :

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...2sMImcLchJJYxTh+kmYp

First time I've looked at SLE, but thought i'd give my view since it clearly has a following.

Looks in very poor shape for longs. Below all main SMA's, negative MACD divergence and well on its way to a full retrace to 4.61 after the recent H&S where the neckline has not backtested yet. Money flow is flooring.

If anything I would be waiting for a bounce off 4.61 since this coincides with the main trendline support, but this down trend looks well entrenched to me.
This company looks sick.....a quick glance at the last operations update tells me that their assets are poor, which fits with the chart.

F4T

Very Clear - Many Thanks for taking the time to explain - Very much appreciated it will really help me to learn.

That first line should have read "two options" not "top options". Lol!

OK, SE. Here are the top options as I see them. First the bull option which I've posted before:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLE..._06_13bulloption.gif

In this case we'd expect it now to rise to something like the recent 8.5p high without too much trouble to form wave 1 of 3 up (it should have 5 mini subwaves). A 50-61% retrace from there to form another higher low and then a break to new highs should follow.

On the other hand, the count could be:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLE..._06_13bearoption.gif

In this case what I'd expect is for the SP to form 3 waves up to about the 61.8% Fib at 7.2p (ie a failure to reach the recent high) and then reverse and start to drop, eventually finding support back at yesterday's low, bouncing and then going through it. The wedge shape of the last rise does tend to suggest this option might be favourite as it could be seen as a bear pennant.

One thing I've often noticed is that, after an initial rise (like we think we're getting now here), if prices drop back to the 50-61% level then it tends to suggest a bullish case. When the initial retrace is less severe, say to the 38-50% level, it's more likely to be a B wave in a corrective move.

So it can actually be more bullish to have a more severe pullback initially.

You can never really know for sure, but they're the sort of things I look for. You can't ever really beat S&Rs and pure price for the best levels to watch, but the form can help give us a clue.

Hope that helps.

PS It's a good example of what I was writing about last night on the sage thread - have 2 correctly labeled options and a strategy for each. That way you're covered and know what you're doing.

Thanks Jackozy - If you wouldn't mind playing teacher!

So if this was just an untidy 3 wave correction = potentially 5 waves up of a wave 3

If it was a 5 wave move then possibly we are in an upward ABC correction where it is still possible that Wave C could extend beyond the preceeding Wave 4 down?

How do you determine the difference? As I am not sure I know what to be looking for

As you say, it hit the gap (which I forgot about) at the 78.6% Fib. My only concern now with this is that the drop looks like 5 waves down.

We'll have to keep an eye on the form of this rise as it could be a correction upwards.

Well this broke down through 5.8 - Altghough appears to have bounced having closed the Gap.
So hoping that was the bottom of wave 2

PS Note the inside bar from yesterday - again this signals the uncertainty. Is it a triangle wave 4 or part of a new wave up?

It's a classic place to have an inside bar.

The key levels on SLE are 5.8p to avoid a 5th wave down and 6.75p to break the first low. If this is bullish then it should have the following count:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...SLEdaily11_06_13.gif

screencast.com/t/0jNrpT5f5kO

Is this the early formation of an inverted H & S?

It has completed a 3 wave move down following the 5 wave move up - just unsure if it has bounced off any significant support and volume still weak. Any views?

This was a good example of how a 5th wave can be a bit unpredictable and fail to reach the target. Today's drop confirms the end of the initial move up though there should be a bounce off 7p as this was the intial breakout and will also be the backtest of the trendline break.

What we're looking for here is a nice 3 wave move down. The question is: how far will it go? Normally after an initial move up after a long downtrend we'd expect something like a 61.8% retrace but the diagonal triangle nature of this rise, coupled with the failed 5th subwave in it allows for the possibility of a full 100% retrace so we need to expect somewhere between 6p and 4.6p as the target for this retrace. And there was a gap up on 19th April from the 5p close which didn't get properly filled so we'll keep one eye on that too.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily21_05_13.gif

Looks like it might be heading back to 6p or is this a shake prior to news? I make 6.95p as the line in the sand on the daily (as potentially being the bottom of wave 4 of this move)

Anyone still in this looking for 8.7 or has everyone bailed?

That's how I see it, yes.

Could be wrong of course. I do think there ought to still be a final push to 8.7p though.

Ok - So from TA perspective this is potentially a wave 2 corrective wave if 8.7 not taken out with Fibs something like attached - Many thanks

screencast.com/t/s6nixZZ2j

Hi SE,

No, IF it doesn't go any higher than this then I'd expect a drop back to the 61 Fib at 6p. If it does go on to 8.7p then that Fib level rises to 6.2p.

Best just to wait and see though.

Hi Jackozy - I managed to squeeze out 8.29! It would appear that it did not quite break through 8.5 area - would you agree it is possibly heading down to consolidate around 7.7 before another attempt at 8.7 - Many Thanks SE

bank bank bank profit is the name of the game.... kudos

I've decided to close my longs from 6.5p and 6.95p today at 8.2p, a little short of my target at 8.7p.

My reason is that it appears to be firmly into a 5th wave up from the lows and I also have to take account of the spread and how quickly these penny shares can move. Basically, I see upside as very limited from here in the short term and would prefer to bank my profit and wait for a retrace.

I still think it'll get to 8.7p on the ask side, but the spread may be quite wide at that level as often happens at a key resistance on AIM stocks.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily17_05_13.gif

chart looks good ... the initial inside bar low must hold.... if it can then looks to be consolidating before the next leg up imo....

This is now on it's 3rd inside day in what looks to be a little ascending triangle. The 6.99p level was only breached by 0.04p so we'll overlook that overlap I think! Still needs to close above 7.76p for higher prices and a stab at 8.7p:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily15_05_13.gif

I think this really needed to stay above the mini wave 1 high of 6.99p to stay bullish and avoid a wave 4/1 crossover. Friday's candle was pretty bearish with a marubozu and the RSI closed back below its downtrend so that looks like a false breakout too.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily13_05_13.gif

Syrian Empire wrote:


This is testing the trend line currently.
Its bullish as long as the price dont finish below 6.5
also bear in mind its a penny share and there technicals aint as reliable as a liquid stock.

Has SLE re-tested break out point? Is this still looking bullish?

Currently broke through Lets see if it can finish above the trend line
So looking bullish currently...
im long on this and my stops are below the 2 point at 5.8. That far away in percentage terms.So a tad risky .
This already hit the first resistance at 7.77 and reversed but if it can finish above the trend line then first real target will be 8.7.


support...7,,5.8,,4.61
resistance...7.77,,8.7,,9.45,,9.69,,12,,13.18

Loads of news on this one today. Let's see if it can break those resistances....

remo wrote:
Ha ha! Nice one remo - it ought to be similar - I learnt off the master!

sorry jackozy did not see your post...
more or less the same....dohhhh

Hi shotry.
Good spot
Very near to the 123 low breakout point. You also got the short term down trend line near by as well.
The 123 low breakout point is at 6.99
the trend line resistance is at 7.27
so you could go long if this breaks and finishes above 6.99 but be aware of the resistance from the trend line.True strength will come if it also clears the trend line at 7.27.
The RSI is currently testing its trend line so if it finishes above then that may be an early indicator of a breakout.

Hi Shotry,

Yes, finally looks like there might be some buy signals about to appear on this one after many false dawns. Here's a slightly different take:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily07_05_13.gif

The above shows a possible 123-low forming and the breakout would occur with a downtrend resistance breakout so could be a double whammy of a buy. It'd be nice if it waited a few days and broke both 7p recent high and the downtrend on the same day.

IMHO etc.

screencast.com/t/bMm6hh0mYX

Long opportunity approaching on SLE? iH&S with a conservative target of 8.6.

Would welcome views from others on this trade.

Downtrend breakout, backtest and a higher low and higher high after bullish RSI and MACD divs on this one now...could it finally be?



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily19_12_12.gif

Possible breakout of downtrend occurring on this (after the last false dawn so beware):



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily13_12_12.gif

Very risky penny share and has caused false hope before....

Lol! If I go and sell beer I may end up looking like my avatar and I couldn't possibly bring myself to sell pierogi, bigos, golonka or (almost) any of the other food that's sold here but thanks for the suggestions!

Jackozy,

I think it would be an excellent idea to visit the sites armed with binoculars or posing as a beer seller or food seller?

You should be able to work out what is happening. Take photos or videos.

But you could not post inside information here. I am sure Polish jails are much harsher than you would be used to!

But you could post a suspiciouisly bullish chart and give us all a broad hint.

Lazard Asset Management bought 39,000 to add to their 19 million yesterday @ 8.16p

SP now in positive territory.

Hi Elena,

I must apologise if my post came across as critical of you or anyone else - that certainly wasn't my intention! There's only one person responsible for my trade decisions and that's me of course!

I wouldn't expect you or anyone else to know of such news prior to its release. The chart had a definite breakout and closed pretty much at the high of the day so I felt very comfortable with my earlier entry. I did expect it to drop back to around the 9p mark before continuing but there you go.

In fact, On Sunday night it did occur to me that Friday's action had all the hallmarks of some major news coming and, knowing a bit about SLE, I did wonder if a T/O bid was coming so was not surprised by Monday's news (or the sell-off).

I'm also familiar with AUL and there's no doubt in my mind that this merger is a very positive move - there is a lot of synergy there - and the long term opex savings will be significant. AUL has plenty of acreage here in my home city of Poznan and SLE has the Nowy Sol concession 100 kms or so east of here as well as the Gdansk ones. It makes perfect sense for these two companies to merge and I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see PGNiG make a bid. That is unless Kulczyk gets them first - he's made public his desire to acquire as much of Poland's gas and oil production as possible (he also owns, amongst many other assets, Poznan's city centre Stary Browar shopping centre, voted world's best in 2005 I think, within which his wife owns one of the top 50 small boutique hotels in the world, the oddly named 50/50 Blow Up Hall, which comes complete with bulters and an iPhone rather than a key to help you locate your room).

The new SLE is predominantly not exploring as I understand it - the oil and gas is known to be there - so it's simply a matter of monitisation through production and they have very experienced partners as you say (includng PGNiG).

So, fundamentally I think it's a great move. Chart-wise, I think yesterday's hammer and today's action suggest that my Friday purchase could well be in profit, as you say, before year end.

Maybe I could request a share certificate and turn up at the sites brandishing it and demanding to be shown around "my" company's assets?!...

Jackozy,

I had no idea about a possible merger. San Leon have had farm outs with Genel and Cairn that brought in about $2m and left them with 8% and 14% of off shore Morroco licences.

The merger took us by surprise and undoubtedly there was a fake rise leading up to the announcement.

It is a company that is currently drilling and has many different prospects including Ireland, Morroco and Poland.

I know you only worry about the charts these days and it is good that the chart has not turned ugly after Mondays fall.

I think we have a good chance of a profit between now and year end.

This might not be too bad now:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/SLEdaily14_11_12.gif

Yesterday formed a hammer at a level which has had lot of volume in the past. It also looks to have formed bullish RSI and MACD divergences. I think it's going to need to make a new high above the hammer top before we can get too excited though.

Maybe not the end of the world though for those, like me, who got caught out in the false breakout...he said hopefully!

remo,

Some hot money has exited this share because the news came.

The SP hit a low of 8.02p at 0815

But since then on the 15 minute chart it is ticking back up nicely.

I know RNS can upset the chart, but this news is not disastrous and the uptrend could continue.

It is a complex deal and the real analysis will not be completed for several days.

I would exit if 8.00p is breached. But until then.

Penny shares...
That's the downside of these.
Too volatile .

Not so sure about that R

AdeMcG,

Looks like this was a false rise as it directly affected the price level of the merger.

Market in SLE shares is relatively low volume so by expending less than £250k they could have had a material affect on the merger terms.

Todays drop is with volume.

Both shares down as the market realises that both are in the same position, good assets, low levels of production and cash.

I should have exited at the open but slow to get on computer this morning.

www.investegate.co.uk/san-leon-energy-pl...201211120700548533Q/

Perhaps the merger between SLE and Aurelian was the reason for the volume observed?
Not sure this will translate into higher share price, today.