Good to be right side of a move like this.. However will it stop at 1525?

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Gold%20-%2020th%20Feb.htm

Is it a buy at or near 1525, on the first touch ofcourse.

Your bounce to 1617 is looking a looooooooong way off now WS lol!

$1525 here we come!

any bounce on gold to 1617 - i'll be adding to shorts with a stop just abv.

screencast.com/t/L5E1dVMgq

Even with just a straight copy of (( w )) this has to go to 1536 IMHO

Gold seems pretty clear to me so it's probably very complicated

There's a clear lower high and it's been very range bound between approx. 1525 and 1800. 1525 is therefore a very important support but I do expect it to get broken at some stage to complete a large corrective wave down from 1921. The range of c. 175 suggests that if 1525 goes then we should be looking at c. 1250 and there's a support at 1265:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Goldweekly20_02_13.gif

gold crosses the death cross.
50ma crossing over the 200ma...quite bearish.
just a heads up


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/gold19thfeb.png

The last time gold did the death cross it fell $150..

gold weekly... i was very bullish on this until we failed to breach 1750 area.

Now i got my bear hat on. may see a short term bounce but is sell the rallies until gold can close abv 1700+

here's the weekly for a longer term view.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Gold%20Weekly_Feb2013.JPG

Have an open mind just in case - a close above 1636 at tomorrow's London Close can mean trouble for the gold bears (at least temporarily).

Could Dow get to 14198 at about the same time Gold gets to 1525 and then we would have nice trades.

Also look at silver mining- AGQ around the 10-11p support from memory is a good one to get if it gets dragged down with silver price.
G

The $26 is really strong support. I am looking to go long there.
If that goes, then your $20 defo comes into play. I think something spectacular would have to happen to break that 26 support.
But never say never!
Gold I think 1525 is back on the cards based on last weeks action.
Watch the dollar, cause if dollar gains strength, then commodities normally pull back.
The $78.50 area on the dollar is key support.

Gee

Forgot to add - the flip side of this = bullish outlook for equities?

I was looking at Gold & Silver last night and they both look pretty bearish. I didn't save the gold chart but silver is below:


dl.dropbox.com/u/24866576/February%20201...RS%20150213%20wk.gif

Wouldn't be surprised to see $19.50 an ounce to be honest! Might be enough of a reduction to allow me to buy one of these!

Enjoy the weekend all,
M.

fresnilo, rrs, pog all going down with this.

i am waiting to make a move on Fresnilo and will wait for the right time.

Gold is cyclical so its a matter of time i guess

This is currently finding support at the 123.60% extension of move from 1796 to 1672 = 1602. Could either bounce from here or plumb the depths... and I do mean the depths....way down....poss 1300.

I wont go long ether on gold as its clearly broken to the downside.Its broken the trend line with ease.
Theres no real strong support near by



This went straight through the 61.8 fib that supported this last time so id expect a full correction of 100% now.That level is 1527 so have your longs ready for a first attemt at 1527 with tight stops.

close up


dyor

Jackozy wrote:
Food for thoughts!

I wonder, would this make Gold a good candidate for a cheeky short?

I personally wouldn't now consider going long on Gold until 1525. That's a really important support IMHO.

Hi
This is some TA on gold:

www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

This guy uses commercial direction in addition to TA.

Gee

There is some support at or around 1590,

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Gold%20Daily%20-%2015th%20Feb.htm


Maybe I will try a buy in that area..

my personal view point is i think we will see the 1500's, if gold closes below that number 17WaveSurfer wrote:

will do later this evening - at work.

That was the break out area look at that Marbooza candle and gold flew off to make new highs - look similar candle on 21st Aug 12. that's it really nothing much fancier than that that was when buyers underpinned the price.

you see that type of candle pretty much along that line. 1617 very imp number...not to be messed with

WaveSurfer wrote:
Hi WaveSurfer,

Can you post a chart for the 02-Aug-11? Ta!

due a bounce now - watch 17/23 > 24/29 now... if it cant get abv that then crap again.

Scene of the crime 02 Aug 11 opening candle WaveSurfer wrote:

Well, I'm frazzled by this move



I've had a go at plotting (yet) another trend-line, but I reckon this commodity can be exempt from T/A sometimes (I'd even dare to suggest that this market has been cornered - but like I said, I'm "frazzled"! )

The circle legends:
blue - "clear touch"
yellow - "close enough"

I'd end this post with a "DYOR", but quite frankly you'd be mad to take on any trading advice from me!

p.s. there is an upside to the gold downward move (no, not a macro economic one), but it means that we can perhaps start to accumulate some long term non-fiat assets.

p.p.s News related: I think I read that Soros is selling off some Gold Funds which might have been a catalyst for the drop.

need a close below 17, its big number for gold or back up, let the bull n bear fight it out here.

It does look like it go well down now.

RIP Gold WaveSurfer wrote:

not much air below 1617 - watch that areaAmo wrote:

Amo wrote:
It guess it didn't hold

why 1617 ? that's approx H&S target 20dec-11feb - daily chart (neckline break)

watch 1617, a break of that to the downside will open up targets of 1556 > 1525.

its trying to bounce as i type...1633/40 should cap it imo but i fear for it

I've gone long on this at 1626 with a very tight stop just under 1625. See if it holds.

If it breaks 1625 then it could be headed for 1590 or even 1525 I suppose.

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Gold%20-%2014th%20Feb.htm

This has fallen through the trend line. I dare say that moderate USD Strength might be a factor.


I've added an "alternate" Trendline T2 (which isn't as neat as the main one, T1, but its worth looking at if it holds!). If gold closes above ~ 1635, then I'm prepared to stick my neck out further and call it support

I'm long now on this at the uptrend support @ 1643. Stops should be below 1625 really but mine's a bit tighter than that as I'm not convinced about this one:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily12_02_13.gif

Broad-rock
You are right if its a flat bottom triangle e should be in line with a and c around the 1522 area.
Reason why I have labelled it higher is because thats where 5 wave down move was completed....taking it any further down would mess up the combination elliott wave structure and would be an alarming sign that trend may be reversing and we could be heading down to break 1522! We will have to wait and see what happens?

I have opened a Long Position on Gold today at 1670. My SL is below 1650

Thank you redchilly for your detailed answer, and if this is anything like your usual
analysis it will be spot on.
I agree that 1682 is significant for now and I think a break above 1700 area would be bullish.
But I have a couple of doubts that are stopping me buying.

On the divergence, I would expect some within the wave 3 (like between sub-wave 3-5)
and then 2 more divergences, 1 within the wave 5 and the other between wave 3 & 5.

Also why would the e of triangle be so high compared with a & c?

Oops didn't post the Daily Zoomed out view with WXY in the previous post

Broad-rock,
I normally refrain from debating EWT but its a very interesting chart so couldn't resist!
Here is how I see it & its all IMHO.

On a Weekly chart it looks like a possible Corrective Wave in a 3rd or 5th wave Extension

Instead of a flat 3-3-5 it looks like a 3-3-3-3-3 Horizontal Descending Corrective Triangle with a Top declining and a Flat bottom in a Bull Market


Weekly Chart


Looking at the Daily chart you will see its a Combination Corrective Elliot Wave made up of a 5-3-5 Zigzag(W), any three(X) and a 5-3-5 Zigzag(Y) again (rare)!

Now take a close look at Y on daily chart (Zoomed in view)..you will see 5 waves are already completed confirmed by a bullish divergence on rsi between subwaves 3 and 5


Bottom of 5 on Y was at 1625 (long wicked candle)

How to trade this??
On a Daily Chart we can label 1625 as 1, the swing high after that at 1697 as 2 and the recent swing low at 1652 as 3...we get a potential 123 low forming (its made a HL but its still not made a HH which will only happen if we see a 123 low breakout (close above 1697)

For a better R:R ratio if you look at 4H chart its making another 123 low with 1 at 1657, 2 at 1682 and 3 as 1665. So a SL below 1665 for a long position and a close above 1682 will indicate a move towards 1697, 1796 and 1921(all time high) giving a R:R ratio of more than 1

A close below 1625 will indicate a move towards 1522 which is the flat bottom of the triangle

PS - as far as I am aware wave 4 and 1 overlap can be seen in Diagonal Triangles in a motive wave(ending or leading) as well as in corrective waves

This is a weekly chart, I am thinking it is in a wave 4 (possibly a flat 3,3,5), but
not sure about the C wave, can the 4th wave retrace into the 1st wave?
I know that in an impulse this would ruled out except in a diagonal, but if this
is a corrective wave 4, can this be allowed, and if so could Gold be headed to the 1590 area?

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Gold%20-%20Wee...sible%20wave%204.htm

Looks like gold is getting close to a move.

Up ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Gold%20-%20Daily%20-%2022nd%20Jan.htm

Looks like it's made a nice little backtest of the short term downtrend breakout today.

This broke out of it's short term downtrend yesterday. Here's the daily chart showing next resistances at 1695 (horizontal)and 1707 (next downtrend):



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily16_01_13.gif

Also looks to be forming an ascending triangle on the hourly which generates a target of 1695:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Goldhourly16_01_13.gif

Not sure, but it stopped me out of POG. Back on the sidelines on that one for the moment

Wow! What just happened there? Gold just dropped nearly $20 in the space of a few minutes...

This looks to me to be in a wave 3 hence it's motoring on nicely. The RSI downtrend from the bearish divergence at the recent 1796 high could be broken on today's close and that could, in turn, be in indicator of a price breakthrough of the matching downtrend resistance. I've shown it on the following chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily10_01_13.gif

The retrace half way down the hammer looks to have been a wave 2 of some degree so I've projected that and the "normal" wave 3 extension target of the 161.8% Fib comes in nicely around the 1701 mark which coincides with natural resistance and that intermediate downtrend. I'd therefore look to bank profit at that level (the RSI should have broken through before this happens) and perhaps re-enter at around the 1680 level (that would be a wave 4 retrace of 38.2%). If this works out, I'd also expect that it's at that point that the RSI would be backtesting its trendline break.

Obviously, this is all theoretical currently, but these are the sorts of I look for ie multiple TA methods all pointing towards the same levels. If these all look good at the time I'll execute the above plan. If not I'll re-assess.

On the bigger picture, the above waves I'm talking about would just be subwaves of a larger degree wave up as I suspect we could be just starting a big new bull trend in gold IMHO.

Hammer an resistance broke 1664/1666
Possible buy on any retest if not already in.

Silver also flying, this has been pushing and waiting for gold

RMc

remo wrote:
The top of this hammer/pin bar seems to be acting as resistance for the moment. This coincides with the days close before the pin bar.

If we compare to silver (as I pointed out on the silver thread), the silver pin bar broke and finished into the previous candle. Therefore the resistance of the previous days candle was not there.

Entry half way down the price bar would not have been possible. But there would have been a trade to take above the break of the pin bar as with the 123low scenario currently in play with gold.

Regards RMc