Here's weekly view from a few days ago with a possible count on it:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...LDweekly27_05_13.gif

Today's daily chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...OLDdaily30_05_13.gif

Just wondering if that drop to the higher low could have been a failed 5th wave? There was a big hammer on the Silver daily chart at 20.2p, not far from the 19.5 target so possibly a reversal in play for precious metals?

Note how the rise for what I've labelled wave 4 of C hit exactly the 38.2% Fib of the wave 3 of C - perfect textbook EWT there. I'll have to look closer at the last drop - if it has 5 subwaves then it might be that failed 5th.

short term bullish yes, also +div from recent lows ...like to see gold get upto 1520/40 - to short it down to 1200...

im happy to be patient.

Gold has blown past the $1400 mark this morning - which is a bullish sign, as it was resistance for a week or so.

Hi amo
Thats correct mate. That would be the signal for a 123 low.
The only problem with this is that its about 140 points difference between the 1 and 2 point.
I dont like having that much risk between the stop loss.
So your right in identifying the 123 low.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gold23may.png

sorry for the delay in posting as am busy with the server Once i move to the new server i will post more.

Hi Remo,

If we go higher than 1487 would that be classed a a 123 low?

Thanks
Amo

two inside bars
Short @ 1468.7
SL above the high of IB
Sorry no chart as at hospital

here's the monthly view - long term target is in the greenzone once one red zone is cleared

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gold%20monthly%20APR13.JPG

Remember this chart from previous post?

now keep an eye on gold back-testing the break point, i'll be looking to short on 1st attempt.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gold_30_Apr13.JPG


u/40497882/Gold_30_Apr13.JPG

bounce came @ 1492 > 1510 and now straight washout to 1370 > 1331 appearing more and more likely destinations....

expect to see a bounce or decent counter rallies to sell into

gold bull over and out and enter the bear !

that trade of mine did not last long
I wont be going long on gold now. Im gonna wait for the back test of 1522 then gonna short.
With a 10 point stop.
Next good support level is around 1430 area . Now im bearish on gold .

move money out of gold and into equities perhaps ?

may get a bounce @ 1480/90 before it heads back down to 1360 before a bigger counter rally gets going....all imo

1525 busted, 1515 taken out - air pocket down to 1480/90,

What on earth is going on here? I mean seriously! Gold is dropping hard!

Did the Fed, EU, BoE, BoJ, and SNB all stop printing finally?

Ouch!

Ive got my order at 1522 to go long for a first attempt trade with a 10 point stop .
Below this level theres a real risk of gold going towards 1400

This is really on the move today.

waaa ...Thats a lot of gold for the USA. i wonder where they got all that gold from
as for UK .They should just sell all the gold and pay of our depts rather than hord it.What good is it if you dont use it in times of trouble. All the politicians are useless.
I wonder what would happen if everyone sold there gold??? Gold would drop like a stone id suspect.
Im surprised that no ones mentioned this to the exchequer ???
1 Pez 1 wrote:

Wikipedia has us ranked 18th with 310.3 tonnes as of December 2012

USA miles ahead of anyone with 8,133.5 tonnes

remo wrote:

I thought the same! If they sold some of their gold to reduce their debt and vulnerability surely that would make for a better solution all round? Simplistic, I know, but tbh I hadn't even realised that these countries were holding so much gold = cash. It makes me wonder why ECB/IMF have not made the sale a condition of any bailout.....just my thoughts at the moment - and it's started to rain - again

Thanks for that Ann
Its very interesting that.
Why dont they all just sell there gold to get out of this mess they are all in????
Cyprus dont have enough
but the others sure do .Well would help in a big way to clear there depts.
Does anyone know how much UK has got in reserves now after old brown sold most of it when gold was very low.Biggest mistake any party ever made...lol

Here's the article I read:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22106187

"Cyprus's total bullion reserves stood at 13.9 tonnes at the end of February, according to data from the World Gold Council.

At current prices, 400m euros' worth of gold amounts to about 10.36 tonnes of metal.

The sale will be the biggest bullion sale by a eurozone central bank since France sold 17.4 tonnes in the first half of 2009.

European finance ministers meet in Dublin on Friday to discuss the Cyprus bailout.

Analysts say it is very unlikely that other European Union states will become big sellers of the precious metal.

Portugal holds 382.5 tonnes of gold, worth some 14.76bn euros at current prices, in its reserves, while Spain's holdings stand at 281.6 tonnes, worth 10.8bn euros.

Italy is the world's fourth-largest gold holder, with 2,451.8 tonnes, worth 94.6bn euros"

The only time id consider going long on gold is once it has a 123 low formation .
Its been in a sideways market since September 2011. Its been in a down trend since October 2012
The 123 low currently will be at 1590. So above this in the next few days would be bullish.
Until then there is risk of gold going lower to test the important level at 1522. Id go long there for a first attempt trade only and this means short term trading.


with regards to cyprus, How much gold have they got???? They are a very small country so i would not expect them to have a big impact. I could be wrong
Im not a fundamental person so it would be interesting view from someone who is.

GS the contrarian indicator ?

It occurred to me when I read about Cyprus selling that it would be a good time to buy!

Any views anyone??

cyprus to sell off it's gold...

GS came out with a sell note ...hmmmmmmm

Lovely chart on Gold at the moment, approaching a strong technical level imo.

My alerts went off this morning - approaching both a key horizontal aswell as oblique channel support.
Lowest support level is ~1522 ranging to ~1534

The one risk I see is the 200sma on the weekly chart is currently at 1434 and rising. It isn't due to hit these current levels until June/July time. So there is a chance taht price could break below key levels to test this area. Another possibility could be Gold price ranges sideways until a 200sma test.

I have an order in for 1525 with a 15 pip stop

im so peeved off lol, closed all last week and then it dump another 40 pips down... grrrrrr.

agree Remo time to go long soon imo i like 1515....

silver looks good for a long to sub >26

Im planning on going long on a first attempt basis at 1522 with a tight stop.
This area has been good support in the past so hoping for a bounce on first attempt.
The support starts from 1531 to 1522 so it will depend on your risk level to determine where abouts you would enter long for a quick trade. The main trend for gold is sideways(since 2011) and a finish below 1522 could signal the down trend.Then you would have to look at the fibs for supports.

watch the monthly candle on this, maybe an inside month .... Key is 1617 my magic number for gold - a close abv then up it goes will look in detail over the weekend & will post chart a bit later....

i've close all shorts on gold.

Thanks for the update Jackozy, you have been busy with the charts today.

Agree with your count and have been waiting for a break of 1620 to start shorting.

Wave 5 - what could we expect action wise?
Probably not as dramatic as the wave 3.

I've revised my wave count on gold and reverted to a possible 5 wave move down from the 1796 high on 5/10/12. When we look at the initial drop from 1796 to 1672 (wave 1 on the following chart) and project that from the wave 2 high at 1754 we can see that the most recent low on 21 Feb at 1554 was almost exactly at the 161.8% extension we'd expect for a wave 3:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily24_03_13.gif

If that's the case and we're in a wave 4 up from 1554, we ought to expect it to get to 1629 which would be the 38% Fib of the wave 3 drop (this is also where the 100% extension lies as shown on the chart). Interestingly, there should be resistance from the previous support at 1625 where a large hammer formed on 4 Jan so that's 2 levels of resistance close by.

Conclusion: I'll look to go short at 1625 with a stop above 1629 to target the 1525 area we've previously discussed.

The folly of fiat currency eh?

Gold has to be the only "thing" (commodity or a CfD) that I've never had any qualms about going long on, regardless of the (reasonable) declines. Sweeping statement I know, but its a personal view and one from personal experiences.

O/T

This latest sorry situation, involving Cyprus this time, is disgraceful really. I'm surprised that prior to this announcement, their Govt didn't have The Godfather or Sopranos theme playing in the background, or at least have Denzil Washington's character from the film Training Day make the announcement about "taxing a little".

I wonder, is this yet another wake up call, or will it go the same apathetic route as other calls. (I suspect it will be the latter!)

p.s. sorry, no chart with this post

wondering if the Cyprus situation may have an affect here?

www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhelan/2013/03/...the-end-of-the-euro/

Still watching this , here's what it looks like now: dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Gold%20Weekly_March2013v2.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

here's the updated 1 Hr now.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/gold%201hr12Mar.JPG

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/gold%204hr12Mar.JPG

rgds ws

Looks like you called this perfectly Jackozy - well done.

Gold's hourly chart had bullish divergences at the recent low c. 1564 so that was a clue to go long. By my reckoning, this has completed 3 waves down but I think it's going to form a double three since 1564 is not really important enough to cause a trend reversal (IMHO). I therefore think that it'll make a new high above 1587 before dropping to the 1525 area in a further 3 wave move.

Granted that there's some supposition in the above.

Here's the hourly chart:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Goldhourly05_03_13.gif

I'm therefore going to look to go short at 1592/7 with a stop above 1602.

Here's something to keep an eye on

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Gold%20Weekly_March2013.JPG

I'm looking at the 1530-1535 level for a buy order in a 3 weighted trade, with the last weight target being 1425ish.

dl.dropbox.com/u/63552262/Charts/Metals%...-_Daily_-_1-3-13.png

1617 came - short trigger now lets ride this puppy down to 1525 ish, some numbers to crack on the way down tho....

live call was made on chat...

Lol, yeah. All was going swimmingly until everything went crazy after the US opened. What a mad, bad last 2 hours of the day.

Crazy!

Jackozy wrote:
So what about the current bullish day it's having + 25 so far?

Looks like that count could have been right. It's dropped out of the wedge now so should move down to 1525 area.

Lovely bearish wedge on the hourly chart now. I've put on a possible wave count for this correction. Once this breaks down it should target 1525 area:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/goldhourly26_02_13b.gif

Had a good look at the chart last night, and it seems that it is actually sat in a large range, between 1800 and 1526, from Sep '11 until now. Be interesting to see what happens if the 1520 level breaks and is backtested...the trading range break should open up 1240 in theory

screencast.com/t/VH4Vf7TAOhXP

Sorry, yesterday's chart contained a labeling error: (( w )) should terminate at 1625.93 making the copy terminate at 1527.90, almost exactly the previous low of 1526.90.

I've taken a very small and risky counter-trend long on this today. I'm sure it's going lower but I reckon we've had a wave 3 down and it's bounced perfectly off the 161.8% Fib extension of the wave 1 move down from 1795 to 1672:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Golddaily21_02_13.gif

Target is c. 1625 but if it goes my way I'll close below that, perhape c. 1600 and then look to short for a 5th wave down.

www.thegoldandoilguy.com/downloads/GSNLTS.pdf

no issues - was short and got a good ride down, im sure there will be another opp to reload the shorts again

im going long on a first attempt basis at 1522 with a 10 point stop.
This is for a bounce trade only and will be for a very short term trade.
Gold is in a down trend now as its really bearish.
good old death cross yesterday
hope people have made good money on the short side