bingo.... was just a matter of time, another clue was silver that usually leads....

Breakout...

i agree, a break here should yield at least a $100 move...

Daily chart.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gold_Daily_15_aug13.JPG




rgds WS

This is hovering around the same area, level to watch on gold is 1348.

got stopped out of the long on the H4 chart. made some good gains and banked some of the move, however the stop is trailing a 20ma hence being stopped out. waiting for the next h4 or d1 signal.

The level to watch on gold for today is 1348. If this level breaks then this could send gold back up to 1424 area.

just went long today, a few reasons for doing so but main was is that we have retraced between 50% and 61.8% of the previous up wave. Price held this week again

and I have a H4 Long signal.

Short term trade?

Im planning on going long at 1300 on a first attempt basis with a 5 pip stop

So it has entered into temporary support zone on the 4H chart:




However, despite being in a support zone, I won't be going long for the following reasons:

1. Bounce of key resistance (see chart) which was the 38.2% fib from the extreme low to high
If you look back at my charts on here you can see just how consistent Gold trades of the fib area's

2. Bearish break of the RSI trendline on multiple timeframes

3. Stochastic and other momentum indicators look bearish

Chart:




However, if you note on the Daily chart, there is a bullish break of a downtrend resistance line. This could be a false breakout however, as I think the price was always going to test the fib area.

Due to the uncertainty, I am staying out of any long term moves for gold until the direction bias becomes clearer.

I may trade on the short term moves though.

Stopped out from the squeeze.

Lesson learnt.

Should have had faith in the RSI weekly and original positions at 1244 and 1270 being particularly safe.

The uptrend was definitely showing strength on Friday after my short, that's what you get for trying to be clever lol.

I guess the underlying power of the bulls and the danger a short squeeze should have put me off. A bit of of a red or black trade that one...

It just got blitzed Paitech wrote:

Gold to break 1300$ ...

www.silverdoctors.com/breaking-massive-f...plaza-force-majeure/

A CONTINUED BULLISH TAKE ON GOLD
www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/a-continu...sh-take-on-gold.html

short squeeze comin ? dyor.

>1298/1300 > ~1340 > ~1388/92

supp 1268/70




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gold_daily_21July13.JPG

Closed Longs at 1286, profit banked.

Currently Short at 1285.8.

Target = 1254.

Hoping to Long again around that area if this trade plays out with 1420 as the main target.

The crystal ball is a bit foggy but I wouldn't be surprised to see this back to 1254-1243 before heading up once again but don't hold me to it. This is just my view from looking at the chart and not based on any fundies

Diver, thanks.

I see that the RSI is still above the trend line which is still positive..

I'd like to see the bulls take it above that 1295 level again and hold it on a closing basis, shame they couldn't push it higher today.

I guess the price action ahead all rests with Bernanke's comments tomorrow.

Any views on the possible forthcoming price action after today?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gold%20Ounce%20USD.png

Amazing how the fibs and trend lines coincide

Well, 1300 did it's job of holding off the bulls today.

The bears sure had their fun to 1270.

Hoping the uptrend line around 1266 holds and we get another test to try and break above 1300 in the coming sessions. No doubt some more spikes like today will happen again tomorrow.

(Still long from 1244 and 1270)

Looking good for a test on 1300, Dollar weakening.

Next few sessions are key for Gold:

"Bernanke's testimony on the economy to a House panel on Wednesday and a Senate committee on Thursday will be closely watched for fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy"

Hoping the price action is explosive. (to the upside)

p.s. The weekly RSI is looking quite nice and dandy.

Was getting a bit hairy for Gold until the US Retail Sales figures for June just got released.

Actual = 0.4%
Consensus = 0.8%
Previous = 0.5%

Fed kind of already gave a hint's to the market regarding tapering and prolonging the stimulus.

0.4% is thus supportive of their intentions.

Trickle tickle to market, then digest, Gold get's it's shine back, then boom. 1487.

We all seem to agree on $1320 being important but there's also the $1337.9 level and the 61.8% Fib as backup so my short stops will be just above that:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...olddaily14_07_13.gif

I noticed a recent pattern in Gold..

July = Goes Bullish

September = Goes Bearish.

It looks to me like a weekly RSI breakout is occurring atm and it's July...

so, if this plays out like previously then I'd like to see a move up towards 50% fib + major downtrend resistance which peaks in September 1487 before then making it's way back towards new lows...

Going to be interesting to see what kind of price action we get around 1320.

Amo,

I have learnt that divulging or discussing labels only leads to controversy therefore I now keep things to s bare minimum and do not get involved in such discussions. Save it to say, if this breaks 1322 it should be a move up. Whatever label you want to give it is fine with me

Hi Diver,

Do you have this move up as potential primary wave 1 ?

Thanks
Amo

diver993 wrote:

Added final weight at 1270.

Decent bounce from yesterdays breakout point..

Nice confirmation that the bulls are in currently in control of this move.

The weekly chart looks quite promising especially if the bulls can keep this going past 1322.

Still, it's early day's and 1300's hasn't been taken out yet.

It's just retesting the breakout point of 1268.

Bit of a battle going on.

Come on the bulls!

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gold%20Ounce%20USD.png

For me the important level to confirm the uptrend is 1322: a break of this and we have reversed the trend. The target is then between the 50% and 61.8% fibs of the last cycle, and a handy resistance therein would be 1530.

remo wrote:
Looking good but would be better once it breaks 1300, today preferably

I have 1324 as a level to bank profit but something tells me it could explode higher towards 1450 over the coming weeks with 1300 acting as a decent level of support. So maybe I'll let the whole trade run instead or bank half at that level. Decisions decisions....

Gold has been sold down massively so maybe the bulls want to some heavy price action northwards whilst the moment of opportunity is there.

I like big moves.

Libero wrote:

I do miss the good old days on the xta board
It seems a long time ago ....Or is it me getting old very quickly

remo wrote:
Beautiful call Remo, and great call on the S&P too.


There you go bringing back memories of the excellent calls made on the ol' XTA board!

This broke out nicely from the 123 low trade during the night...that's the advantage of having an order to open. .this should be a free trade now..

Long from 1244.96
Stop=1230
Limit Target= 1324

May add if 1267.80 goes.

Come on the bulls, now's the time to push this north!

Im going to add to my longs from earlier today at 1268 did not post as based on hourly chart and entered earlier....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/hourlygold.png

A finish above this would be the signal for a short term rally...Possibly a 123 low as redchilly mentioned.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gold9thjuly.png

Hi RC,

I was looking at Gold last night and for the last week.



I think it is heading towards the LONG LONG term 50% fib retracement area in the short term (maybe even further, there is an oblique long term support - blue line - also to consider)



There is, as you have indicated, a potential 1,2,3 breakout on the daily chart, however it may not be a great move up, and if you choose to go long, I would perhaps take some off @ 1330/1335 which is the previous support & 38.2% long term fib mark. It is also within the oblique channel range.

Just something to consider if you choose to go long.

I think I will opt to go short in around the 1330/1335 area, and, depending on price action, go long @ the 50% fib area.

Keep an eye on 1267 as that's the 123 low breakout point after bullish divergence on indicators

Low of 1180 was 1, 1267 2 & 1208 3

Some interesting charts and with the continued fall and comments from the BBC news article 28 June 2013 Last updated at 02:40 GMT <<Gold price falls below $1,200 an ounce>>

"You don't want to catch a falling knife, so people who might be buyers are stepping aside and don't want to show gold at their quarter-end statement," said Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Funds."

Maybe Remo's 1160 bounce will occur first, only another -3.5% odd down today and Monday? and then the mid November CQG EW forecast 1096 to 1093 -8.8% to -9%.

Some charts (oil/US$/Gold):-

www.macrotrends.net/1311/asset-price-bubbles-since-1976
www.macrotrends.net/1335/dollar-gold-and...chart-last-ten-years
www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar-gold-and-oil-historical-chart

I just posted the below blog after having a look at the gold chart today. I haven't been following this thread, so apologies if some of it may overlap with what you guys are saying, which I strongly suspect will be the case since most of us look at similar things.

chartsview.co.uk/Chartsview-Blog/fib-ext...-could-be-going.html

These are the chart's I posted within the blog (only 2) - but the next key area for me is the 50% fib ext from extreme low (2005) to extreme high (2011)




Closer up view

Gold (Bullion) forecast based on EW:

$1160/oz is the level I had noted down also but I wouldn't mind it to fail and head to $900-700/oz to pick up some physical.

im waiting for the perfect entry ...
This would be the 61.8 fib level at around 1160ish.
Theres 2 levels of support there so should bounce on a first attempt basis. So put that level in your diary


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/goldjune27th.png

well it got there in the end.....

key area to look for may be a counter rally to kick off (in a bear)

$1192, 1151 & 1011



WaveSurfer wrote:

I missed the chance to short this at the descending triangle resistance shown here on this 4H chart. There could be another chance on a breakdown of 1388.9 so I may look to that on a backtest:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...s/GOLD4H06_06_13.gif

looking at this rally - personally i dont think its sustainable, like to see lower low in futures play, cash made a ll but not futures....

i'll be watching 1437/46 area, if it gets there....

all imo,

rgds WS

Thanks remo.

Re updata, I think it's something to do with my FX feed subscription (gold is in that feed). Not sure really but I can't get pre-2008.

Thanks again for that chart.

here you jackozy...heres the monthly chart for Gold going back to 1968.
Im surprised that updata dont go back far. There normally real good.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gold30thmay.png

i'll put something up the weekend J - but yes im expecting at a min $1000, glad u mentioned those price targets...

Yep - makes sense. Only thing is you've then got your big wave A at near the 50% Fib of the whole rise from c. 700 so where are you expecting C to end? At the 78.6% Fib near 950?

I'd like to see the longer term view but can't get it on updata. Any chance you could post a monthly chart going way back to the moves prior to 700?

Hi J - your C is my BIG A-

current move up - projecting to 1500/1540 will be a BIG B (circa 38% retracment from ~1321-1900 or 1617/22 ( my number again) = 50%, then a BIG bad C to follow to new lows...

if that makes sense....

cheers WS.