This has gone nicely in my favour and here is the chart

Daily chart showing classic RSI failure swing


Hourly chart showing 6320 as the first LH since 6085. My stop is 5 points above which is 6325.

I am shorton FTSE. SL is 6325
Will post reasoning behind it with a chart later as at work!

Following yesterday's bearish engulfing/dark cloud cover, I've gone short at the backtest of the breakdown point:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily05_02_13.gif

A bit risky perhaps but hey ho, tight stop.

Gotcha

I won't go short there any more as it went real close to it this morning.
That level was for a first attempt basis trade for me. As the price got close to it I don't like re-trying near an area where it's been weakened.
That's just the way I do things.

Hi Remo, have you still got your eye 6377. it came very close this morning.

I guess my point being that it will coincide nicely with the 6377 on your chart, could add to the resistance. Will be looking to put a very small short in. Popping my cherry on an index. Not sure about a target though.

Twl

are nobody spotted the error....lol
the all time high is not 6751.....6751 is still worth a short but the all time high is at 6930



remo wrote:

hi twl2009
its the channel. it still plays its part even thou the price has moved away a few times.
nice spot.Its amazing how many times these channels play out.It looks like its near to the top of the channel.good eyes to spot that

twl2009 wrote:

Remo,
Im very new to this charting malarkey, but i've been looking at this recently. any significance??

www.dropbox.com/s/pycrjmvnzq5vbbq/Screen...%20at%2014.41.16.png


Twl

id short on a first attempt basis at 6377...
The best level to go short on the ftse is when it test the all time high at 6751. Thats well worth the short on a first attempt basis..

ill post a chart latter

Attached is a chart with two lines one at 6300 from the second high in 2007 and another at 6700 which was the high in 2007.

My thinking is that the RSI is now higher than it was back in 2007 and seems to have maxed out although there is some momentum in the rise.

Hi SpideyMonkey,

I'm quite new to trading myself but I do find when asking for advice on this forum you might get more luck if you post your own thoughts first, e.g. why do you think 6300 is a good place to short the FTSE? That way the more experienced posters can also give you advice on your own trading methods at the same time.

Thanks
Amo

Could 6300 be the top for the FTSE 100??

Interested in your thoughts..

Looking to short the FTSE100 or 250 for a small retrace any idea where a good top point to enter the short would be?

I am thinking 6300 for the FTSE 100 & 13150 for the FTSE 250

Would love to hear peoples thoughts..

Thanks
Spidy

here we go ....no sell signal at all, 1487/1499 spx possible today or tomorrow.

depending on where we close may get a day trade sell signal (scalp), better to buy the effing dip on that pb.

max pullback i see from there will be 1468/75 area.

1 spx pip = 10 dow pips approx.


line in the sand is 1461. enjoy W3.

lets get ready to rumble = up
lets get ready to crumble =down

my stance has remained bullish since the lows in july and nov 12 & posts reflect that, the recent side ways action, well it was just teasing the bears n bulls...like giving a candy to bears and taking it away lol.

ftse n spx has made a new highs, dow laggining, although dow has now retraced over 90% on the recent down move in Nov12, will we see the reverse this time round...whereby dow fails to make new highs like SPX last time round.....

Remo put a good post on Dow today - could it be we will get there 13665/700 area, pullback in a 4th to close that gap created today and truncate in the 5th on int wave3.... hmmm we will see when we get there.

Dow = 13588, we get abv that then will will see 13665 imo.
Ftse a decent close, targets indicated in below post stand for now. assess and re-assess, take each day step by step.


regards WS.

but which way...up or down.???? SPIN THAT WHEEL !!

enough of this sideways move both Ftse , Dow N SPX......get ready to rumble imo.

Yep, doesn't look too good. It's the first time it's been tested since May 2011 so I'd have been surprised if it had gone through on the first test. Perhaps it'll just hit the short term uptrend support and then have another go?

It looks like the ftse is losing the battle.
This area is a strong resistance.



dyor

hammering that base remo ? remo wrote:

Nice ascending triangle breakout.
So far its been boring which is no surprise as its probably waiting for the cue from the dow
This area is a well known resistance area yet price has not convincingly broke out yet which says that its still battling with this area.




weekly chart

dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/ftse10014thjan.png

dyor

I'm going long on a backtest of 6106. Best place for a stop would be below 6053 which is quite wide. There's always the chance that this was a false breakout but it's had a few opportunities to drop from here and hasn't yet...

here's what im looking at. dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/ftse11Jan13.JPG

wrt to targets, interim target i have for this intermediate wave 3 is approx 6358 (int w1= int w3) this takes into account both minor wave 4 correction and minor wave5 of 3. well that how i see it, suggestions welcome.

a 161 fib ext comes in at around 6403.5

regards WS

WaveSurfer wrote:

Yep, thanks WS, updata's end of day download corrected the chart to the figure you gave.

6101.51 is what i have.... checked bloomberg, reuters and on the home page of chartsview... Jackozy wrote:

6097 it is then....

Thanks T/s. On the other hand, a close below 6106 (an even better a close below 6100) would leave a shooting star at this important level with bearish RSI and MACD divergences so a short would be in order then with a stop above today's high I suppose.

It would be a bit surprising if it brokw through 6106 on its first attempt at that important level.

There are obvious trades either way here so the key is to wait and see how it closes and then follow that IMHO.

Thought you'd be on the case Sir!...my just for fun quick snapshot

If this closes above 6106 today then I'm going to go long with a stop below the recent swing low at 6053. I know that's a wide stop for the FTSE but I think it's the right one. The alternative would be to wait for a backtest of the breakout from 6106 (assuming there is one). Here's a weekly chart showing the next major resistances at 6377 and the all-time high at 6754:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEweekly10_01_13.gif

Again, note how the RSI downtrend which started off with the weekly bearish divergence at the 13th July 2007 6754 looks like it'll be broken this week. These are long term RSI trends so it could bode well for longs.

I tend to agree, i 've had an interim target of around 6141-6171 area before xmas as per previous thread, i may need to re-adjust this target now

I think we are in an early state of minute 3 of int 3 of major 3 of 5.... well that what im counting it as..... will try n post up a chart later and some new targets.

I also see US indices making new highs very soon.

I went short on this at 6104 yesterday but bailed out at 6085. This looks really bullish to me now so I'm looking to go long targetting next resistance at 6377. Any other veiws?

only 11 points away!!!!

kiss of death comment by me earlier .
looking at the chart on the weekly tells me the area to watch on the ftse100 is 6100.
This is the true level the ftse has to breach to be considered bullish.This level has some serious resistance attached to it so be very careful .

Im placing a short at 6100 with a 30 point stop during market hours only.This level is worth shorting at first attempt basis as its serious resistance area. If it finishes above 6100 then expect a big rally.
Id be very surprised if this can break this level on first contact



All this manipulation is messing my charts up.
its funny how the picture can change in a day.

ftse looks like it made a top???

for now i would not be placing any new longs for the time being .
I have seen a lot of shares approaching important support levels and some have already broken through during my scans.Theres quite a few approaching major trend lines as well.This is telling me to not place any new longs until the highs are taken out.
So be very careful out there if your thinking about buying shares in the new year.
You should wait for the 6000 to be cleared before taking the plunge.which aint that far away .
As for day traders there will always be some thing to trade based on very short term trading.

bear in mind that bull markets last between 3-5 years. so the odds are starting to favour a bear market soon. some thing to be aware of for share traders.
DYOR

could this be a top.
It looks like 2013 is going to start bearish.



dyor

Despite recent optimism I think the FTSE looks bearish. Here's the long term daily view:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily12_12_12.gif

Note how the test of 5932 resistance yesterday coincided with a test of the long term RSI downtrend going way back. This RSI downtrend has proved a reliable reversal point on numerous occasions and the fact that it remains intact while there is an apparent price breakout of the downtrend from 6104 suggests to me that the breakout could be false.

I'd start to get excited if the RSI breaks out but until then it's different strokes for different folks I guess!

I think so remo...i've made my target clear, enjoy the ride..

Ftse 100 is currently testing main resistance level.
If you look at the obv(on balance volume) its already broken out. So diverging nicely.

Is this an early indicator for a breakout????



DYOR

chart updated, stops moved in now protecting all long postions.WaveSurfer wrote:

1 position closed, rest stops moved in WaveSurfer wrote:

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/ftse30min_insidebar.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

30min chart long entry based on inside bar. stop below yesterdays/todays low, looking for a break of 5904 to confirm inside bar breakout.

With respect to higher prices, nothing suggest that this is not possible from a tech standpoint, unless a key level has broken down. i still thing 6000+ is very very possible, doesnt mean it cant pullback from there tho. previous posts explain why.

The ftse has a divergence on the OBV(on balance volume)
Could this be an early indication of a possible breakout to the upside????



DYOR

Shooting star (well, almost) at known resistance - downtrend at 5910, natural resistances at 5921 and 5932. Here's the hourly:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEhourly06_12_12.gif

obviously key levels to get through...and confirmation required...but you never know..

wave iii of 1 of 3 of 5 ?

Just some thoughts/musings

some rough calcs

Inv H&s Target approx 5990

Wave i = 206pip
wave i *.618 = 127pip
wave iii = wave i(206+127)= 333pip
target Wave iii = ~6173

161 ext = 6141.8 (5934-5598/9)

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_projections_bullcase.JPG

Anyone looking at a short at 5912? It's the main downtrend resistance from the May 2010 6104 high...worked last time round but maybe risky now?



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily30_11_12.gif

Worth keeping in mind - weekly timeframe



dl.dropbox.com/u/24866576/November%20201...00%20291112%20wk.gif