dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/ftse%205%20min040413.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

SL moved to profit

91 busted -watch it goWaveSurfer wrote:

agree RC - it's abt time need to take out some levels for full confirmation take out of 6391 and then 6335 be a good start....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv5.JPG

There has been a bearish divergence on the RSI since January 29th. Trying to pre-empt the indicies is almost always an expensive past-time so be careful guys.

Red Chilly - I feel your short will be successful in the end.

I feel the FTSE is coming to a short/mid term high. RSI is indicating bearish divergence at these prices, and it is just a matter of where & when rather than if imo. I almost went short last night at about 16.45 when there was a 2nd candle close under the 8ema - however, something stopped me as I thought it still had a wee bit to travel back up (the RSI still had to touch its resistance trendline also)

I never anticipated such a move down today.

My hope for tomorrow though is the price bounces off the 49sma on the daily and the 200sma on the 4H and the chart - and heads towards 6425/6450, or maybe even above(various sma's on a couple timeframes plus the 50% fib from recent high to low).
If the price starts showing weakness around this area - I will plan out a short scenario.

I would like to note that on the Daily chart the recent price moves have broken the trendline - but still to break the 49sma. once this has broke - it will confirm for that the downtrend has started.

Bearish Engulfing Candles today on both FTSE & DOW with more than average trading volume on both the indices
Is it the blow-off day?



FTSE is a comparatively weaker index & always leads the falls
I've put money where my mouth is - short on FTSE @ 6403 with a SL @ 6450

this is going really well, here's the 4hr view

key will be the backtest of that tri ( or inv h&s neckline) now.....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv4.JPG

Can be a bullish flag ?????

is that a flag ?

Is FTSE going

to break out of the 1 hr downtrend channel and previous resistance area ????

www.dropbox.com/s/m2v7snrg1mg1oe4/FTSE%201hr%20-%2028.03.13.gif

Watch that TRI - update chart.....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv3.JPG

chart updated to reflect todays action WaveSurfer wrote:

clearly this is being respected.

this is futures chart - cash will be different.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv2.JPG

some observations:
1. current ftse price range 6340-6396 - top of wave B in 19th of MAY 2008
2. clear cluster of FIB support - highlighted on chart

count:

i'm with Jackozy on the potential count as first preference, however he knows this alt count that i have in mind, preference being what J's already put on i.e Int iv, however it's always good to have an alt option of this potentially being - minute iv of 5 on int III and clearly it's developing.

another interesting observation is the triangle break to downside also indicates Jacko's potential targets... all that needs to be done is reverse the (ABCD with E up may be in play etc) labelling in the posted chart...

if this is min iv (tri break to upside n hold) then v up still to come and potential target being approx 6620....so the market has set it's parameter's and triangulating to cause participants mass confusion.....indeed classic signs of 4th corrective of any degree.

rgds WS

Hi SE,

IMHO (and it's only that), the Dow will continue to edge higher with retraces along the way. Yeah, OK, I know that sounds weak, but it's in uncharted territory (quite literally lol) so it's not so straight forward to call the top. If my wave counts are right (big IF) then we shouldn't see below 13784 until next year at the earliest.

The reason I'm being a bit circumspect is that I think that the bulk of the bull trend (I mean from 2009 lows) is done now and I have us nearing the top of primary wave 3. Wave 5s can be unpredictable and can fail to exceed wave 3 highs on occasion.

What we have to bear in mind is that it's broken out from its all time high and that's not insignificant. Wavesurfer wrote a post on the Dow's previous breakouts from all time highs so it may be worth you reading the Dow thread to see WS' thoughts there.

At some point, maybe early summer 2014, the Dow will have completed 5 primary waves up from the 6470 low and that would form Cycle wave 1 with Cycle wave 2 to follow. I wouldn't want to be long when that happens as it could be even worse then 2007/8 and will likely last longer. Until then, though, I remain cautiously bullish but it won't be a smooth ride.

ATB

Hi Jackozy - Any insight into where the DOW is heading?
I have moved my Pension into cash in anticipation of a correction that is stubornly failing to materialise!

Thanks

This followed through nicely and I'm a bit surprised nobody's posted this chart after Friday's close as it's performed a perfect backtest of the trendline break at 6426 where I added to shorts:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily24_03_13.gif

There was bearish RSI divergence as well as in MACD and momentum at the 6533 high and also a double top on the short term chart. However, IMHO this is only a short term dip and I'm targeting the 6216-6258 area where I'll be looking for clues to reverse and go long into late April/early May before another summer correction. This latter is based on EWT so will need verifying at the time.

Watch out for a close below 6417 today as that's the uptrend support from Nov lows:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily21_03_13.gif

Close below 6386 would also make a lower low so 2 levels of support close by today. There is a clear bearish divergence at the recent double top at 6533 too. Targets are shown by the blue support lines coupled with the 38 fib as I have this as a possible wave 4.

FTSE 1HR

Early morning yesterday posted on chat

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/ftse15Mar.JPG

full version EOD updated this morning:

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/ftse1hr_15Mar.JPG

Get your shorts out if you dare boys, not long to wait now!

Safe target would be 6106/7

F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...qoHx&symbol=FT%5EUKX

It's not really at a known resistance either. Perhaps best to wait and see where Dow closes - if that also has a shooting star then I'd be concerned. Looks unlikely now though.

FTSE candle could be a bear trap.

I might be biased though as I took a quick long into the close and will add if I can anywhere near 6412 breakout point tomorrow. Still a couple of final waves up to come into May for me before a larger correction.

Its very close to one but its got a small tail so more like a doji. just a few points away from one thou so very close.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/ftse1006thmarch.png

would you say it's a bearish shooting star on FTSE daily (today's candle) ????

Head and shoulder forming???



dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/ftese1004thmarch.png

head and shoulder formation will comfirm once
the ftse finishes below 6272. But id be more happy with shorts
if 6258 was broken


Look at the RSI divergence on this


dyor

Short FTSE from 6353 with a 45 pip stop

Target is 6130 (20 pips above the 6110 support I have charted)

I'd post a chart, but my chart is messy at the moment and probably would cause more confusion to others than help.

I took tht but have closed it. Now thing FTSE will go to 6297 before a final drop and then a 5th wave up

Maybe looking to short at 6277 as that will be the brekout point I think

FTSE 123 high breakout
its made a LH & a LL

It looks like it gonna be a shorting frenzy day tomorrow.
Some serious bearishness in the American markets last night.
It looks like ftse will follow suit today. I won't be looking at adding any new longs for the time being as it looks like a bigger correction may be about to start. So careful with the longs.
There will be a lot of gap downs first thing tomorrow.
I'm currently short on a few shares so looking good for my shares

First post, hello all

Just been looking at the FTSE chart, looks like it will drop 100 points or more tomorrow to 6140 -6100

large bearish engulfing bar and Mac D divergence.

Whats does anyone think?

Simon

Can't argue with that F4T.

Yep, very choppy. One of the joys of the markets when we reach perceived limits that bend and stretch.
I have no doubt that markets have further to go but I would like to see SPX pull back to theb 1400 levels first. I think we will see that. Q1 is often strong and Q2 weak.

Companies are stronger than economies and everyone wants to play at trading.

F4T

Yes, bit only short timeframes ones on the bounce from 6278. The counts on SPX and Dow up from 1343 and 12471 respectively lookk like they've got a fair bit more to come if you ask me.

Waters are very choppy at these levels though, eh?

Jackozy,
good call on one more run for the bulls. I presume you were counting waves there?

Cheers
F4T

I was thinking that the downgrade would put pressure on Sterling which would benefit the markets, no?

Anyway, seems it was all price in for now.

twl2009 wrote:
I think because everyone was expecting a drop the market surprises us as usual, with a rise this morning. Suckers rally? I've gone short at 6381. 30 point stop.

All three US indices fell between 5-7% on their downgrading in 2011. The Ftse is obviously toppy at the mo, any thoughts on mondays action?????

dl.dropbox.com/u/31800760/charts%20request2.pdf

view of ftse and a few other requests for info

Yes that is a negative div.
I think you will find one the MACD tOo.

Gee

Beginner question, sorry, but is this a divergence on the daily?

www.dropbox.com/s/xeebx9jk60h2led/Screen...%20at%2011.39.41.png

Chart attached on smaller timeframe shows a rising wedge that is approaching its breakdown point and extreme negative MACD divergence.

IMO it is only a matter of time before we see a retrace here. My guess is that it will come when the US approach their delayed budget cut deadline on 1st March.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...18msckUEeR%2BPzQ2vlV

Patience, patience......
F4T

Sure did remo

As it happened, I had a short order already in but my 5 minute trading system also triggered a sell signal at exactly 6377 after it reached 6384. Nice

Jackozy wrote:
I hope you took that short jackozy.
I did thanks to you pointing it out as i was busy at the time arranging things
Its currently a free trade for me now
I actually totally forgot about that level as i thought it got close to it the other day but it turns out it was about 25 points away so that level was still a valid short for a first attempt basis trade.
Thanks for highlighting it

Well, I decided to chance a chart after my "FTSE is off the chart" comment and the only one that is reasonable has a 13 year timeframe and suggests a current top in the 6,600 region (declining).

I would therefore suggest a short at anything above 6,575 anytime in the next three to six months.

Aside from that, I would be very careful

F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...f01gi6qhKTkj7gQsUrkA

I see the DOW is taking a breather. Will be interesting to see where it closes. If it finishes up then the world has gone mad.

These are the options:

1. Wait for the retrace, buy low sell high
2. Or get in with the momentum, risk is high as there could be a retrace

There are merits in both - but it depends on what kind of trader you are. I prefer to buy low - as the correction/retracement always happen

I would say that the continued rise in main indices is becoming slightly ridiculous.

FTSE is pretty much off the chart and extended to the extreme. Someone is going to hurt when the catalyst for a retrace materialises. It is not in my vision yet but is bound to come stateside.

GL )
F4T

FTSE at 6380 currently....

Nice timing!!!!