dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/DOW_13_11_12.jpg

Hi kI

its basically looking at the 123 breakout point from the hourly chart. So the 123 low point.

It give you an idea of the turning point.
In this case if it breaks out past 12890 then that could be a buy signal. Stops would have to be below the 3 point on his chart.

I normally use this on daily time frames but like any thing you can use it on all time frames.

A finish above 12890 today and you should get a rally of soughts.
dyor
remo

Ocean10 wrote:
Ocean, i dont understand this chart, what am i missing ?

Fancy this to bounce this afternoon to 12875. KI.

Thats a nice looking chart you have

Chart for illustration purposes

That will be a good 1-2-3 trading signal on the 1 hour chart.
Good luck

Im looking to go long above 12890.
Theres a nice looking long legged doji on the dow. Pure indecision .
If this can finish above 12890 then id expect a move higher short term. Possibly testing 13000 again.




DYOR
remo

Gee I 100% agree with this chart. It's the only solution to the mess this World is currently faced with

Hi
This is an interesting chart:

caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/dowbearish.png

A bearish case which has a high probability if 12,000 breaks.

If world banks weren't printing money, I would think this is a possibility, however with so much QE, I personally don't think the bull is over just yet.

G

An alternative view - what about a bull flag (Imaginary as per Diver's chart posted) ??? Once she breaks out of this channel (upward direction) there is always the possibility of the anticipated X-mas rally.

What do I know? DYOR.....

screencast.com/t/Lg3ESWcuh

Well I think we are probably at the end of this wave A and heading for a reprieve to possibly 13280ish before resuming the downward move.



The reason I say this is due to the divergence on the RSI plus we have already passed the 50fib. Could go to the 61fib mind you but that is also very close.
As always DYOR

Hey, Broad-rock...man, that was a great call! Well done and thanks!

Thanks, I thought so.

good eyes Mate
theres a gap there.
very small one but still a gap.
I had to zoom in to see it. its a gap of 4 points.

remo, do you have a gap at 12676 from 25/26 July 2012 on your chart (can't quite make it out). If so then that's also very close to the 61.8% Fib. Just not sure if the gap is really there...

The dow is approaching a critical level at 12723. If this level breaks then theres no support for 200 points. This is where there is a trend line support.
The dow has broken through the short term trend line the other day and also the 200sma and also cloud support(ichimuku chart) so looking weaker.
But the main trend line is still intact and this is at 12100. As long as the dow can stay above this level then the bull market can still have legs. A finish below this then all hell will break lose...

Im planning on going long during market hours at 12723 with 40 point stop. Currently the pre market price went slightly below this. There is risk attached to this trade so will look to take profits quickly and move stops to break even.
Im not confident of this trade but i always go long on first attempt of a trend line.




DYOR
remo

Broad-rock wrote:
broadrock
you have not connected the bottom of your trendline. so your entry maybe out.
unless this is a techniqe of yours???
remo

Yes, if this was to retrace 56% like the first one it would come close to the trend-line at 12750 today and just below support at 12760, so maybe a wee bounce here.

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Dow%20-%209th%...th%2056%25%20fib.htm

Long term looking for this..........

screencast.com/t/IRD7GcP5ZYW

...... just call me Bob

Here's another possibility...

If we look at the previous 2 retraces since the 10404 low, we can see that they're quite similar so perhaps this could be the same?



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily09_11_12.gif

The hourly P&F chart has active targets at 12630 and 12195 based on closing prices and a 15x3 box size:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/DowhourlyP%26F09_11_12.gif

And the weekly cloud chart has price support at 12561 and 11871:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowweeklycloud09_11_12.gif

Note that the 11871 cloud base offers this support until 28 Feb 2013. The daily cloud chart already has price and lagging line below the cloud so be prepared to trade short because it looks like it could get nasty...

Possible bounce at or around 12760 trend-line and support?

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Dow%20-%209th%20Nov.htm

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Dow%20-%209th%20Nov.htm

Thats what you call a back test. Perfect for a first attempt trade.
Obviously im on about a short. to late to chase but showing how well first attempts work.
It tested the break out point perfectly.

I hope that the dow can move above 13300 soon or else more down moves to follow.



dyor
remo

[On another topic altogether ... does the 'Preview' button work for you guys? Mine just shows a tinted blank space??[/quote]

Its does not work with the ratings enabled. Tried fixing this but must be a bug. Developers have not got a glue why this is the case. It would work if we disabled the ratings thou.

remo

Agreed, diver. I'm seeing it exactly the same way. In fact, I very nearly took the short at 13286 which I saw as the backtest of the breakdown point.

I'm more inclined to believe that it's the larger wave in play as the 23.6% level seems more likely than the 50% level on the smaller wave. As you say, the question now is whether this goes to the 38.2% Fib or the 61.8% Fib of this larger wave (assuming that that is in play).

It was apparent in the news yesterday how much concern there is regarding the 1st Jan US budget deadline and the likelihood of the cutbacks it requires inciting another US recession. The chart could certainly support that as a possibility.

Two questions - (i) Is this the end of wave A of the current retrace? (ii) If not then how far will it go?
Ok, two views of the chart - panoramic.....



and the close-up.....



....(now I'm crossing my fingers a bit and hope that works and doesn't show the same file twice)

The current price is on the 23.6fib of the rise up from Oct 2011 and a little shy of the 50fib from June 2012. Also wave v is pretty well equal to wave i. Whatever it looks like wave B is almost here before wave C takes us lower still.

On another topic altogether ... does the 'Preview' button work for you guys? Mine just shows a tinted blank space??

You have to be careful with new longs now as the dow has broken a key level.
The trend line has broken. For the bulls to be back in charge it has to finish above the recent high at 13300. Then you will be able to redraw the trend line. Until then you have to stand aside for the time being.
dyor
remo

Idiodyssey did you try the link, it seems to be working. Anyway I'll try to attach the image, fingers cross.

Hi Ocean

Your chart does not display

Are we still in the uptrend channel on the daily?
Have we seen the low on the DOW today?
Please share your views.
Thank you

www.dropbox.com/s/bh54m2uy7vp8j3c/Dow%20...aily%207.11.2012.gif

Amo wrote:
Hi Amo

If you click on the chart it actually goes bigger on my charts so that you can clearly see it. This is done via the image link if anyone else wants to know how i have done this. Theres a video on how to do this.

www.chartsview.co.uk/index.php?option=co...0&lang=en&view=topic

With regards to the moving average.
200 day moving average is the most important one. This determines the trend. Above is bullish and below is bearish.
50 day is also used a lot for medium tem view and 20 days for short term. Generally speaking everyone uses these differently.

EMA is for exponential moving average.

This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average.
This gives more weight to recent data than a simple moving average



SMA is for simple moving average
This is basically the average of a given number of days.

EMA reacts faster than SMA due to more weightings from the recent data.
It can also give you more false signals.

I normally play with both and see which one fits better then use that.

The shorter the moving average the quicker it moves.
Some people use 2 moving averages to trade of,for example a 8sma crossing a 30 sma could be used to give a buy signal or sell signal.

dyor
remo

Amo, the trend originates back in Oct 2011 and so has three touchy feelies

Of course. I couldn’t make out the chart properly. Thanks for the reply Jackozy. Learning everyday

In regards to moving average's is there any rules around this or is it each to their own? I notice 20 50 and 200 is commonly used but then I've also come across 8 and 30 being a common indicator. Then there is EMA and SMA. Again is this all about individual preference?

Hi Amo,

If I may (correct me if I'm wrong!)...

That was actually the breakout point for a 500 pt move which subsequently proved support on a backtest. In addition, the 200MA is there, a 38.2% Fib is there and the trendline is close by. So basically there's a lot of support in that area.

What that also means, of course, is that if it fails then it becomes stern resistance and a big down move would be likely.

Hi Remo.

Why is the horizontal support line in the circled area of such significance when there is only one past touch point?

Thanks
Amo

I would not be placing any longs near the trend line now. Its too close for my liking.
I will how ever have longs ready at 12980 with a 40 point stop during market hours only.
The reason being you have 2 strong supports near together. The 200sma is currently at 12987 and the breakout point.
Please remember these trades are for first attempts only ..Once it bounces then a second attempt will weaken the support.
If it does bounce of that level then you should also be aware of a possible head and shoulders forming.

If it does finish below 12980 then a deeper correction will be ahead. Hence the importance of that level.

DYOR
remo

Jackozy I really have to thank you. For some reason, I know not why, I have always thought of triangles and diagonals as corrective waves so thanks for kicking my butt and waking me up. How could I be so thick Always the sub-wave 4 going lower than wave 1 has beedn a problem - until now!
I will now take a fresh look at Elliott's with a smile on my face instead of a frown.
From the brief bit of reading I have managed since reading your post it would appear the count of the sub-waves will probably determine the name of the diagonal/triangle/whatever. I'll get back to ya when I've polished the old brain-cells.

Couple of options for you:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowwaves.gif

and:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowwaves1.gif

Ocean,

that's how I see it but - yese, there's always a but huh - show me the labeling for the sub-waves of your wave lll. This is the area I cannot fathom??? How do you get the wave 4 to not cross the wave 1????
Maybe we're on the wrong track completely huh??

Hi Diver,
I am trying to learn about EW as well, hence my take on it. Please feel to correct me if the labeling of the waves do not make sense or are incorrect(anyone).

www.dro

pbox.com/s/69vxrpe5dvwl2e3/Diver993.gif

Now that's cheating I want to see it on a chart - especially how you label all the minor waves thru that side-ways move thru June and July, so no generalisation now

I will have a go ....... Start Beginning of June

Wave 1 mid June
Wave 2 end June
Wave 3 mid end August
Wave 4 start of September
Wave 5 Start of October

BUT..... Wave 3 could be Start of October and we could be in wave 4 now.

RMc (fibbed out and waved out)

screencast.com/t/4rz1x5RN9k

So tell me how do you label this then? Especially the bit up to late July? Got me completely foxed!

I hope you're right there remo but none of those wave 2s retrace more than 50% which is very unusual and the peaks all seem to be forming a rounded top.

If you are right then this next subwave up would need to be very powerful since it would be a 3 of 3 of 3. Can you really see that happening?

I've got to say I still favour the grand supercycle wave 4 option but I prefer yours!



Happy Halloween everyone!

Hi jackozy
I know you like your waves so have a look at my bigger picture wave..

I know ....its a stretch but it does seem to add up. This is my wishful thinking wave

Just one observation on this: if this makes a new low at the 200MA and support around the 12980 mark then it will look a lot like 5 waves down from 13662 don't you think? If so then it can't possibly form new highs on that bounce.

Waves can be subjective and difficult though so we'll have to wait and see...

Lol! Unlucky remo! I missed my long entry on GBPUSD by 0.0002 the other day too...

It bounced right near that trend line.
It went as low as 13052 so missed my entry yet again by 2 points...dohhhh
I'm cancelling my order at 13050 due to the 1 touch rule only.
My other order is still intact.
Remo

dow approaching trend line

Im going long on first attempt today at 13050 with a 25 point stop.Also the stop is below a support level near by at 13039
The reason for the tight stop is i want to have another trade in place at 12980 with a 40 point stop going long.
The 12980 area is a very important level and i expect this to hold during market hours . If we do finish below this then a big fall could follow.

DYOR
remo