dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow29Nov.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

Agree Remo, Looks like a test of the break of lower TL of wedge....

Im trying paste a link to chart in dropbox however unable to..."function is restricted"

remo wrote:

This still maybe possible for a day trade but i suspect you may have to close the position pretty fast.
I think the risks are to great to short this now. Only for the brave from that position.
If the dow goes higher than 13011 then that could be the 123 low as well so hence why im cautioning the short.
If you look at the chart you can see lower lows until possibly now.The 123 low will signal the first higher high since october.

DYOR

The dow looks like its going to start its up move now.
Its finished the day very strong. I suspect the Christmas rally has just started.

DYOR

I'm still waiting to short this at 13070 area with a 40 point stop. Only during market hours and on first attempt basis

This looks like its going to back test the head and shoulder breakout.
Im gonna go short on first attempt only during market hours.
The level for my short is 13065 with a 40 point stop.
The only thing is this more or less hit the target of the head and shoulders break so a bit risky but never the less worth the punt.
50% fib is there as well

dyor
remo

the move today of gapping up and continuing the momentum - could we now be in 3 of 3 of 3 ?

a test n close of 12980 /13020 may confirm it imo.....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow1hr_19Nov.JPG

That bounce came nicely bang of 38% & 23%...

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/DOW_HNS.jpg

a break abv 12701 - should dow move very quickly to 12779, needs to a break of 701/704 imo.... i've taken one long of and the rest are now free trades.

screencast.com/t/bgTZDl65v



And so it begins ...... maybe......

Unless, of course, you know better

Now I think that's more than enough from me

Will it work this time????



www.dropbox.com/s/hj83ps9rqplfo8d/Dow%20...%2016.nov%202012.gif

few areas where it should bounce? (just for fun...I rarely play with daddy dow!)

hopefully it works this time, dont know what the problem was, but also "preview" function dont work form my side

hmm

Blimey Surfer, them your waves....lol!

not sure why the chart came out like that ..but here the link.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/DOW_HNS.jpg

Daily view and illustrative of what Remo is anticipating wrt H&S. notice the convergence of the fibs and trend-line from 2009 lows all in a range between ~12000-12450.... expecting a decent bounce around the 21/22 Nov?

it can go higher than the left shoulder or lower .
other than that yep

thats only for the bigger head and shoulder...
remember currently theres a small one thats already active.

remo

SO essentially we need a down move (possibly now?) to get to the neck then the rally to form the shoulder and then the turn down to finish off. Am I right in the belief that the top of the shoudler should be roughyl equal and so the top of the right shoudler could be measured by the resiatnce formed at the top of the left shoulder?

Hi Ruudboys

Remember it's just an assumption currently. There is still the target of the small head and shoulders to think about.

Head and shoulders patterns are hard to predict due to the way it's constructed. Left shoulder then the head( higher high)
Then the right shoulder( lower high).. In a bull market higher highs are common so you will get the left shoulder and the head a lot.

Remo

I'm looking for a first resistance at 12715. The Elliott's folk reckon this will be a short sharp jobbie before continuing the slide

Hi all,
Great website Remo.

Regarding Remo's comment earlier, could some kind soul confirm whether i am right in understanding that the bounce is expected soon to about 13050?

many thanks

"So im expecting the bounce to come near the target of the small head and shoulders(completes the head) then a Christmas rally(right shoulders) and then hopefully the shorts could be put on when we dont make new highs."

to get the bigger right shoulder from current levels would require a rally. Remember its not formed yet as were still just finishing of the head,so to get the right shoulder requires a rally .
Its a big ifff right now but its worth noting.

I'm being stupid here I think but wouldn't the right shoulder formation be down rather than up(Xmas rally per your post)!

yep..
Ive already closed it .
Then i noticed the head and shoulders.....dohhhhhh

Im getting really bearish now but the shorts are not ready to go on yet.
Im expecting a rally soon and at the end of the rally is when my shorts are coming out..
The head and shoulders that i just pointed out is only a small one but there is a good chance that there is a bigger one building out right now.



So im expecting the bounce to come near the target of the small head and shoulders(completes the head) then a Christmas rally(right shoulders) and then hopefully the shorts could be put on when we dont make new highs. Simple really...
If only it was that simple
If this is right it took 6 months to build the left shoulder and then 5 months for the head and maybe 6 months for the right shoulder???? Sell in may could be the theme for next year????

But thats my plan for the short term but you never know i might change it like the weather

DYOR
remo

Remo did you trade the 150 points on break of 12743? Good call

How i missed this i do not know.
I was hoping for a back test at least.


The target for the head and shoulders is 12364

It looks like a top is formed now as every thing is breaking down.
New longs on any thing should be done with caution

DYOR
remo

KI wrote:
Try adding the file via attachments.
thats what i just did to your file.I basically saved it to a png file then attached it from below
hope that makes sence
remo

Is there a way to make my charts smaller on here ? TIA.

clip2net.com/s/2vhhJ KI.

KI wrote:
I've assumed that there will be a bounce here (after all, if I'm going long there then I must be assuming at least a temporary bottom) so I've drawn the Fibs for the drop from 13662 to my assumed low in order to see where the upside resistances lie.

In the event that 12663 gets taken out I'll simply remove the Fibs as they'll no longer be relevant. For now, though, they are relevant.

Jackozy, why have you put a fibbo on the bottom of todays candle ? are you calling this the bottom. Thanks KI.

I am out with 35 pips,

Your first target should be the breakout point at 12743.
hope its a free bet now

Thanks remo. I ought to add a target:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily14_11_12.gif

Even the 1 min p&f chart has an active target at 12150 which is where the main trendline will be by the end of Nov. That's a pretty far off target for a 1 min chart...

Jackozy wrote:
id say its a good technical trade with tight stop .worth the risk
remo

have joined you on a long position. KI.

Thats the level ive taken my profits at 12676 from the short entry...
free trade now.
If this does not bounce from here then good chance of main trend line being tested so careful.

taken a similar trade, too

I've just taken a risky long at the 12676 gap with a stop below the 61.8% Fib which stands at 12657. I might need some luck with this....

I have a short term target circa 13000. KI.

Dont forget about the gap (Jackozy spotted last week) at 12676-12680 and 61.8 fib support at 12650 ish.

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Dow%2013th%20Nov.htm

It more or less finished near the bottom of the range now.
Like i said which ever way this breaks it will head about 150 points down.
I will only trade this during market hours only.
A few hours ago i was bullish on this chart but now more bearish
Thats how quickly trading a plan can change
dyor

This is in a 150 point trading range and which ever way it breaks out should yield 150 points.
Im favouring an up break.
Up above 12900
down below 12743

If this does breakout above 12900 then i will look to short on first attempt at 13038
obviously ill be long before that
DYOR
remo

Remo, the dow looks to have some good consolidation around the 12800, i have traded in and out for the day on this, will wait for a pullback then go again. KI.