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TOPIC: GKP

GKP 12 Jan 2013 15:25 #1451

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hi greenhill
on my chart on the 10th jan i have labelled the 123 breakout.

heres is a close up



here is another example with the higher highs and lows labelled.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/gkp123example.png

heres the link to the 123 low write up in the learning section that may help you to understand it better.
www.chartsview.co.uk/learning/123-low.html

on my chart i have the resistance as 217.5 and that level got tested on Friday and it held.

203 is support and also the trendline at 163 (changes daily). since your using the monthly its harder to be precise so you should look at it from a daily view to be able to get a more accurate price.
so both the levels you mentioned are more or less there as support.
I think your chart is of a daily chart and not monthly.

hope this is helpful
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Last Edit: 12 Jan 2013 15:26 by remo.
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 15:24 #1452

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I believe GKP rising is the rolling coast again. As those brokers have to write the articles for encourage people to buy shares, obviously GKP is one very contradictory attracted shares. The political problem is having in favour of GKP, but not break thru yet. Interesting time and also anxious time. The court case still has some months to get the judgement results.

This recent rise is due to the brokers recommendations. Nothing changed from the end of Dec to the recent a few days in terms of news. :)
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 15:24 #1453

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Remo,

it seems we have different definitions of the word crowd. My definition is the majority and it is the majority of transactions that move the market. I am not sure what your definition is. Perhaps you mean the majority of amateur PI's that post on public internet forums.

If that is the case then I agree.

If not, then be careful in thinking that you can beat the market mate. Contrarians never win in the long term, that is a fact.

I am going to leave it there.

F4T
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 15:12 #1454

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Hi remo, when I was writing my post, you have submitted a post 14:25, which answered my query about the support figures. Many thanks.

However, hope you will teach me about the 123. Lol.
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 15:01 #1455

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Hi Remo, This is my first post here. As you know I am still a learner. Would you kindly help me to know that 123 low breakout? On your post 10 Jan 2013 08:52, you said with your graphic img that 123 breakout. Could I ask you to put number 1, 2, 3 on your graphic img, so help me to know this 123.

Also we see the highest sp is 219.25p, can regard it as resistance, similar to Jackozy 217 resistance. According to my 2 year GKP candlestick chart, the support is 170p near future, may in 1 month time scale. So would it be 170 as support or 203p as support?


A_GKP_support_line.jpg



Don't know my insert file would work or not, I give a link below.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LPWYT&symbol=L%5EGKP
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 14:46 #1456

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Let's agree to disagree.
totally agree there.
Everyones entitled there own opinion.
For me i Never followed the crowd apart from when i started trading and that was when i had the most losses.
I always Enter before the crowd and not with it.When ever i place an entry its not with the crowd.
Like i said,Most people lose in the stock market and that is a fact. Theres only a few people that win and these people are not crowd followers.They are most likely system Traders(people that leave emotions out of trading).
This topic is very arguable for both party and we could probably argue this until were both blue in the face.I do understand what your saying about the crowd as you need the crowd to push the share price higher.
Like i said no hard feelings as everyone is entitled to there own opinion and im glad you expressed your opinion. It is a discussion board after all.
remo
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 14:30 #1457

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"You should never follow the crowd."

With respect remo, you are so wrong here. So wrong that it hurts me to point it out. The market IS the crowd and you should always follow it. There are no prizes for be contrary. How is that not obvious?

You should follow the crowd and follow the indicatoras that the crowd uses because that is what moves the market. Those are usually the common ones.

As to extremes vs closing prices, a day trader can use closing prices on any time frame he chooses, it doesn't have to be the daily.

Let's agree to disagree. I have demonstated on both Blvn and Gkp the benefit of closing prices. I called the recent bottom on both. No one else on here did.

GL with your trading.
F4T




remo wrote:
hi food4thought
every trader is different .
With trend lines it all depends on what type of trader you are.
Quite a lot of people on here day trade so using end of day charts wont be good enough as you need hourly time frames for early entry.
I use extremes and end of day charts do not show that.So totally no good for what i do.
I dont agree with the comment about most market participants use closing price.So you have to use it or else its foolish??????...Most market particpants lose so following them is not a good idea.
You should never follow the crowd.
Again its all down to what type of trader you are.If it works for you then stick with it.
here is a few examples of the difference between an end of day trend line and my extremes on a candlestick chart.

End of Day using USDGBP currency


Extremes using Candlestick


from the above example you should be able to tell which one is more effective and the big difference in them.

GKP End of Day


GKP extremes using candle


Theres not much in it when your talking short term on these but if you look at it from a long term view then the lines do appear far apart.

Dont take it the wrong way but i thought id better show the difference between the two.

Again its all down to what type of trader you are. ;)

remo


Food4Thought wrote:
Well I hate to say I told you so. The 162 area was a clear bottom and long term support back to 2009 as I mentioned several times on here.

I think that many on here draw their trendlines incorrectly. You have to use the closing prices for trendlines, that is what the majority of market participants use so it is foolish to do otherwise.

I also think that alot of traders overcomplicate their analysis using too many indicators and complicated wave therapy :)

My advice is to keep it simple. My target is still a 50%+ gain from 162 within two month which would need a gap close at 230.

No offense meant, just giving advice as I see it.
GL to all.
F4T

Food4Thought wrote:
Hmmm, lots of negativity on here whch seems a little odd given the technicals. Positive divergence on MACD and a positive tick. In fact all indicators look pretty good to me. Maybe some missed the entry point.

Last time the sp hit the long term support line was 29/6 and before that 4/8/11 and both provided sizeable multi day bounces.

Well I guess the fiscal cliff will decide how the year ends and begins but if tonights session is positive IMO we are looking to test 203 and 206 at minimum in coming days. If not 162 is a bottom in any case for me not to be revisited.

F4T
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 14:25 #1458

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Hi bonobo
The 203 has been the fulcrum for gkp for a long time. This level has played a big role.
Up above 203 and down below 203. in my view this level is the most important level for this company.


The best place for entry is the 203 level and if it did come back to this level then there is a good chance it would bounce from it,but if it goes through then back down to the 180ish again.




you can tell that there has been good volume recently by looking at the volume chart or looking at the OBV(On Balance Volume). The OBV is at the highest point since october 2011 so that bolds well for GKP in the short term.

The share price should now head towards the 230 gap resistance in the short term .

support.....203,,187,,172,,164(short term trend line),,161,,139
Resistance..230(gap resistance),,242,,247,,261,,281,,298,,339(gap resistance),,376,,465

bonobo77 wrote:
What is the view on GKP 'needing' to backtest 203-205p before further upward movement?
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Last Edit: 12 Jan 2013 14:26 by remo.
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 11:55 #1459

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Well, that's really odd: when I tried to post my latest GKP chart last evening the software insisted on continuing to post the previous chart; now, this morning the correct one is shown??? Scratching my head here.... Whatever! :)

Jacko, as far as the extension is concerned, the chart posted shows the minimum position. The way this took-off it may well go to 423.6fib. There's just no telling till we see what transpires.

Bonobo, at some point there will be a retrace. Where that reaches to will depend entirely upon how far this goes north. Therefore, the 203 level may or may not be relevant in the future. I would expect a minimum retrace of 38.2 at the end of wave 3 and, once the entire move is complete, a minimum of 50% retrace.
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GKP 12 Jan 2013 08:58 #1460

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What is the view on GKP 'needing' to backtest 203-205p before further upward movement?
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 22:10 #1461

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261.8 is a supposition; 161.8 is a necessity for it to be 5 waves impulsive. It also needs to have divergence between waves 3 and 5, otherwise it's not impulsive, so we will see. The last three days would definitely appear impulsive in their action.
Wave 4 would ideally be 38.2 of wave 3; and wave 5, I would love to be 1.618 of wave 4. These are not compulsory, merely idealistic, so are open to variation but, if they do, I just bet they vary in a fibo variation.
Have a good weekend over there mate. I just bet it's 'B' cold ....brrrrr!
Take care:)
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 20:30 #1462

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Hi Diver.

Couple of questions for you: Why are you using the 261.8% Fib extension for your wave 3 target and how did you come by the 50p length for wave 5?

Genuine questions not criticisms...
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 20:07 #1463

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Sorry, I give up.... you'll have to use the link as the insert file does not want to behave this evening:(
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 20:06 #1464

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I'll get the right chart in a minute.....duh!
GULFKEYSTONE.png
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 20:04 #1465

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BELLZONE_2013-01-11.png
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 20:03 #1466

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screencast.com/t/nPvzcRW7POQ


GULFKEYSTONE.png


In light of the passed few days it now looks like there is a possibility the down-turn is over. In my view we need a break of 276 to confirm this view but, these past few days look impulsive so I expect the chart to pan out as shown ...... please B) We will then get a further retrace before, hopefully this finally blossom to show its full potential ...... pretty please :cheer:
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 18:33 #1467

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hi food4thought
every trader is different .
With trend lines it all depends on what type of trader you are.
Quite a lot of people on here day trade so using end of day charts wont be good enough as you need hourly time frames for early entry.
I use extremes and end of day charts do not show that.So totally no good for what i do.
I dont agree with the comment about most market participants use closing price.So you have to use it or else its foolish??????...Most market particpants lose so following them is not a good idea.
You should never follow the crowd.
Again its all down to what type of trader you are.If it works for you then stick with it.
here is a few examples of the difference between an end of day trend line and my extremes on a candlestick chart.

End of Day using USDGBP currency


Extremes using Candlestick


from the above example you should be able to tell which one is more effective and the big difference in them.

GKP End of Day


GKP extremes using candle


Theres not much in it when your talking short term on these but if you look at it from a long term view then the lines do appear far apart.

Dont take it the wrong way but i thought id better show the difference between the two.

Again its all down to what type of trader you are. ;)

remo


Food4Thought wrote:
Well I hate to say I told you so. The 162 area was a clear bottom and long term support back to 2009 as I mentioned several times on here.

I think that many on here draw their trendlines incorrectly. You have to use the closing prices for trendlines, that is what the majority of market participants use so it is foolish to do otherwise.

I also think that alot of traders overcomplicate their analysis using too many indicators and complicated wave therapy :)

My advice is to keep it simple. My target is still a 50%+ gain from 162 within two month which would need a gap close at 230.

No offense meant, just giving advice as I see it.
GL to all.
F4T

Food4Thought wrote:
Hmmm, lots of negativity on here whch seems a little odd given the technicals. Positive divergence on MACD and a positive tick. In fact all indicators look pretty good to me. Maybe some missed the entry point.

Last time the sp hit the long term support line was 29/6 and before that 4/8/11 and both provided sizeable multi day bounces.

Well I guess the fiscal cliff will decide how the year ends and begins but if tonights session is positive IMO we are looking to test 203 and 206 at minimum in coming days. If not 162 is a bottom in any case for me not to be revisited.

F4T
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 13:33 #1468

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Is here a potential head and shoulders pattern here or am i imagining things?
gyazo.com/9a0181ea5446b0326f28b13e52797eb9
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 11:05 #1469

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Well I hate to say I told you so. The 162 area was a clear bottom and long term support back to 2009 as I mentioned several times on here.

I think that many on here draw their trendlines incorrectly. You have to use the closing prices for trendlines, that is what the majority of market participants use so it is foolish to do otherwise.

I also think that alot of traders overcomplicate their analysis using too many indicators and complicated wave therapy :)

My advice is to keep it simple. My target is still a 50%+ gain from 162 within two month which would need a gap close at 230.

No offense meant, just giving advice as I see it.
GL to all.
F4T

Food4Thought wrote:
Hmmm, lots of negativity on here whch seems a little odd given the technicals. Positive divergence on MACD and a positive tick. In fact all indicators look pretty good to me. Maybe some missed the entry point.

Last time the sp hit the long term support line was 29/6 and before that 4/8/11 and both provided sizeable multi day bounces.

Well I guess the fiscal cliff will decide how the year ends and begins but if tonights session is positive IMO we are looking to test 203 and 206 at minimum in coming days. If not 162 is a bottom in any case for me not to be revisited.

F4T
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 09:48 #1470

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Yep, I'm happy to concede that it looks like I was wrong. 217p was obvious resistance so a bit of consolidation from there should be expected. If it does make a new high above 217p without going below 187p then there will have been 5 waves up which should confirm a new uptrend IMHO.

I have an active p&f target at 224p so the gap area looks to be the target for now.
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 09:21 #1471

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true strength will come with a close abv that gap and esp 242/5. Macd has crossed on the weekly and needs to get abv that 0 line

i would not want a close below 198/96 level, as when it does it sells of every time.

nevertheless looking good so far.
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GKP 11 Jan 2013 09:15 #1472

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This break and hold seems very convincing to me.

About time imo...
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GKP 10 Jan 2013 09:37 #1473

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I think we probably all saw the 123-low breakout but we're so sick of this share and false hopes that nobody wanted to put the jinx on it lol!

The things about 123-low patterns is that they look the same as ABC corrections until you get a 5th wave up. Which one is this?

As far as I can see there was no bullish RSI divergence at 161p (there doesn't have to be one) and the volume at that level wasn't great so I'm with diver on this - I want to see a convincing break and hold above 204p before I start to believe. I'm not the Fox Mulder of GKP any more :-)

PS re the car - just be thankful you didn't have to buy one over here....!!!
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GKP 10 Jan 2013 08:52 #1474

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Im surprised that no one mentioned the 123 low breakout we had yesterday :ohmy: :ohmy:
Thats the first time we have had one since last july. Could this be the bottom?????
Look to go long on any back test with a stop possibly below the 2 point at 172.





i would have mentioned this yesterday but have been busy trying to buy a Car for the past few days. :sick: :sick: Ive bought one Now and now i was gonna sell my other car but have lost my log book :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: Its been a stressful week trying to purchase a car .

anyway

GKP is looking good

DYOR
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GKP 10 Jan 2013 08:47 #1475

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dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_diamondv2.JPG

Im targeting about 100+ pips in the interim, if this is true breakout, 203 needs to be taken out convincingly and be able to hold for more than a day.
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GKP 10 Jan 2013 08:34 #1476

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screencast.com/t/BQlbCsksszNA


GULFKEYSTONE.png


Well, as you can see from the chart prices followed my prediction to the letter until yesterday. This was no doubt because of the news Genel shipped a little oil via Turkey. We will see if this is a permanent change of course or just a blip. The pivot point here will be 203. As long as we stay below this level I remain bearish. A concerted move above will mean a fresh look at the labelling....
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GKP 30 Dec 2012 19:32 #1477

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Hmmm, lots of negativity on here whch seems a little odd given the technicals. Positive divergence on MACD and a positive tick. In fact all indicators look pretty good to me. Maybe some missed the entry point.

Last time the sp hit the long term support line was 29/6 and before that 4/8/11 and both provided sizeable multi day bounces.

Well I guess the fiscal cliff will decide how the year ends and begins but if tonights session is positive IMO we are looking to test 203 and 206 at minimum in coming days. If not 162 is a bottom in any case for me not to be revisited.

F4T
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GKP 29 Dec 2012 11:09 #1478

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GKP looks to have completed an impulsive 5 wave move downwards from it's high of 260ish. Perhaps we will see an ABC against the downtrend before a further move down.
Last Edit: 29 Dec 2012 11:17 by sarah.
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GKP 28 Dec 2012 22:48 #1479

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187.00. Almost spot-on the 61.8fib retrace. Will it sink again on Monday??
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GKP 28 Dec 2012 15:28 #1480

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Wild13, I think you're right.....'sucking us in?' IMHO this is just a bounce before yet another fall. Time will tell!
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GKP 28 Dec 2012 11:00 #1481

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Well, I have been advocating the low 160's for some time as a bottom and it is beautiful to see such a strong bounce from the long term trendline support yesterday. No surprise really.

I am looking for 50% on yesterday's longs within two months.

Hope you all also accepted the christmas gift.

F4T
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GKP 28 Dec 2012 09:36 #1482

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hope everyone had a great xmas here's the updated chart i've been tracking - a close abv 186.75,191 & 203 on weekly basis would be nice.
dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_DiamondV2.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:
wow lots of bearishness here, although some points maybe valid, let's look the opposite way to cover all basis EW element and focus purely on the pattern formation on the Weekly:

Here's the weekly chart and it seems like there is a rare pattern that (produces a powerful move once broken out) has formed or is still in process. Diamond Bottom ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_Diamond.JPG

clearly the formation is developing on key support area's in sideways action ...

If this pattern is in play then there is a very good chance that the breakout will be as equally powerful of the move down.

www.thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html#DIB3

just something to ponder and certainly to keep an eye on...
Last Edit: 28 Dec 2012 10:05 by WaveSurfer.
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GKP 28 Dec 2012 00:38 #1483

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Or are they sucking us in ?? no playing sailing on aim i have learnt that for sure.
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GKP 27 Dec 2012 22:58 #1484

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quite bullish..
but for the bulls to be in total control GKP has to finish above 203.
Or better still get a 123 low formation to build confidence.
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GKP 27 Dec 2012 21:38 #1485

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uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...D35z3&symbol=L%5EGKP

well what a day - seems 162 was the kiddy today .loads of tests and it hung in there ....for now .
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GKP 27 Dec 2012 17:02 #1486

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Interesting day and a very bullish finish at 176p.
Do we still think 140 is on the cards, or has 162p shown itself to be the bottom (rising support line from 2009).
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GKP 27 Dec 2012 11:35 #1487

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Closer view of supporting trendline originating summer 2009 (see previous post for full period). We are bang on it right now. We might sit at the low 160's for a bit IMO.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...wtakQIinYqgeMJgnjAGw

F4T
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GKP 27 Dec 2012 11:10 #1488

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The main trend line is at 140 area. So that's the best level to go long on first attempt only.
Id say it's heading towards that level.So there's multiple supports around that area so it should be
strong support.
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Last Edit: 27 Dec 2012 11:25 by remo.
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GKP 26 Dec 2012 19:05 #1489

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Will be interesting if we break 160 as once the long term 2009 trend line support is broken it can only spell doom. In that case I doubt 140 will hold as a new game is in play.

F4T
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GKP 26 Dec 2012 18:26 #1490

I'm still lurking in the background for 141...unless we clearly get back above 171 then that seems a good entry area?...as always you never know with gkp!

gkp141.gif


gkp1412.gif


why I think 171 must be recovered quickly or down to 141 (ready from big number 150 though)

gkp171.gif
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GKP 26 Dec 2012 17:17 #1491

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GKP 24 Dec 2012 09:22 #1492

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Hi Diver,

All the best to you and yours too!

My count is slightly different in the detail but generally I have the same sort of conclusion. It's bang on the uptrend from the 87p low as I type and the main uptrend support is at c. 139p - that really needs to hold or your 114p (or my 87p) become a harsh reality.

I still think the count works best as a double or triple (in progress) though...
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GKP 22 Dec 2012 09:13 #1493

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Ok Jackozy, this is especially for you B)
I took a little time during the interminable rain here to take a little more in-depth look at this chart. I could well still be wrong so don't castigate me too much. Time will tell huh?


screencast.com/t/fRztcyVXi


I think this has to be a flat. Could even be an irregular as B just about passed the start of A. The current double complex correction is headed straight down my 'slippery slope' towards 100% of ((a)) of C at 114 or; if it gets extended, then it should go no further than the 123.6fib around 93, possibly pushing to support at 87.

You and your family have a great time over the festive season and I wish you much prosperity for the New Year. Take care!
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GKP 18 Dec 2012 10:07 #1494

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Jackozy I didn't label the sub-waves as I wasn't concerned whether the ABC was a zigzag, flat, triangle, or multi-correction. Didn't have the time to be honest.
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GKP 18 Dec 2012 09:38 #1495

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wow lots of bearishness here, although some points maybe valid, let's look the opposite way to cover all basis EW element and focus purely on the pattern formation on the Weekly:

Here's the weekly chart and it seems like there is a rare pattern that (produces a powerful move once broken out) has formed or is still in process. Diamond Bottom ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_Diamond.JPG

clearly the formation is developing on key support area's in sideways action ...

If this pattern is in play then there is a very good chance that the breakout will be as equally powerful of the move down.

www.thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html#DIB3

just something to ponder and certainly to keep an eye on...
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GKP 17 Dec 2012 14:27 #1496

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I understand what you're getting at diver. Perhaps I'm being a pedant but all I'm saying is that a C wave of any degree ought consist of 5 subwaves, so your wave down from the triangle to 139.25p needs to have 5 subwaves not 3. It's just a technicality.

I actually think that the whole drop from 450p (465p depending on which chart package you use) counts better as a double with the 139.25 to 260p move as an X wave ie 450-139 as an ABC zigzag (5-3-5), 139-260 as an X, 260 downwards as another ABC per your labelling.

All open to interpretation though...

One thing I'm fairly sure of is that we'll see below 170p at some point.
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GKP 17 Dec 2012 14:05 #1497

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Jackozy, the retrace to 139 is the first wave of an ABC which can be either a zigzag or a flat, dependent on what the current C wave does.
The 114 level is merely a fib extension in the present ((a)) & ((b))but happens to coincide nicely with the 76.4 retrace of the entire move from 5.75ish to 465.00 and has been a consistent support/res area thru 2009, 2010, and 2011.
Let's see what happens. It's all moving our way for the present. Take care and have a great Christmas.
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GKP 17 Dec 2012 09:41 #1498

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Hi Diver,

I'm looking towards the main trendline from the 10p days which stands at around 138p today. 140/1 has been very significant in the past so it that level goes then I'd look to 87p personally.

An observation re your waves:

In your wave A down to 139.25p you've labelled the subwave c as an abc - a C wave must have 5 subwaves (ie your wave A has been counted as a 3-3-3 but it should be either a 3-3-5 or a 5-3-5).

In general I agree that it needs to go lower to complete any pattern. The only thing about 114p is that it's not really a major support (111.75p was a support once a while back) so it doesn't seem significant to me. I wonder...where is the 161.8% extension of wave ((a))? It might be somewhere near 87p perhaps (I haven't checked)?
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GKP 15 Dec 2012 09:13 #1499

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Hasn't the trendline you have put in been broken?
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GKP 15 Dec 2012 06:07 #1500

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screencast.com/t/ria55m4OFyh

Does anyone agree with me that this appears to be heading back to 114 to complete and ABC correction from the high of 465? If the current trend line is anything to go by we should be there around the middle of February. The projection to (( c )) is based on an equality with the (( a )) wave from 259.49.
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