Trendfriend wrote:
Hi Trendfriend,

Yes, there are gaps at 52.75p, 31.25p and 13p. It's really quite amazing that even the 53p one is being discussed lol!

Here are the weekly charts showing the options I discussed last night. First the bull option:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...lloption26_04_13.gif

We'd normally look for the 61.8% Fib to hold for a wave 2. Sometimes it'll drop to the 78.6% Fib, but there's usually a full retrace if that goes which is why I think this option is unlikely. So what does the bear count look like?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP...aroption26_04_13.gif

Yes, I know that there are some unbelievable possibilities in here, but the whole saga has been unreal so you never know. Corrective waves (ABCs) have 2 basic forms: 3-3-5 and 5-3-5. There are many complicated versions of these, but they're the basic forms.

The above bear count assumes that 450p was the top of a major wave 1 and we're looking at the wave 2 retrace of the 4.5p to 450p move. That has the 61.8% Fib at 175p which has already gone and the 78.6% Fib at 100p. If it closes below that 100p Fib then it opens up a possibility of a full retrace as described above. Remember, this is pure technical theory taking no account of fundamentals whatsoever.

Going back to the basic corrective forms, we can easily see how the drop to 139p could be a 3 wave move for wave A, then we have a clear 3 wave move up to 260p for a possible B. We'd then (normally) be looking for a 5 wave move down for wave C. During this move, we'd expect wave 1 of C down to be followed by a 61.8% retrace upwards for wave 2. That's exactly what happened when it hit 228p. Wave 3 sometimes comes in at the 161.8% extension of wave 1 projected from the wave 2 high and that's shown on the chart. A 38.2% retrace of that move would constitute a wave 4 up and then a final wave 5 down which, in this purely hypothetical case, could give a target at c. 29p, right near that 31p gap.

I realise that this is a very emotive share so please, please take all the above only as the theoretical discussion it's intended to be. Pretend it's not GKP and just consider the above as a discussion of wave analysis.

Remember also that corrective waves are usually very complex and unpredictable (wave 3 of C may get nowhere near the 161.8% extension for example) so none of the above may happen in reality.

Today's action so far is not suggestive of a reversal yesterday but the day is still young. We've already discussed the safest way to go long on this so until then it's best not to try and catch the bottom. That's not to say don't buy support, but DO make sure you use stops if you try that.

If anyone wants to look at Ichimoku chart or P&F chart analysis on this then I'd be happy to join in. Best of luck folks.

seeing there's lots of interest - here's a different view...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Lifecyclev2.JPG

here's a simple chart but effective chart and it dont look pretty, needs to start moving to the upside pretty quickly:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Monthly.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

J pretty much agree with your assessment, imo i dont think the low is in...too many PI eyes on the 140/131 price range along with a somewhat muted reaction in price and candle... one potential positive to take is there appears to be a +div developing daily & weekly from previous lows of 139p jun2012, maybe just maybe...confirmation is key now before entering into this.

if ~126/119 goes.. then u bet this will trigger a waterfull effect & a very good possibility it'll start ripping through into 106 > 88 > 68 > 54p.

WS.

Jackozy,

Just noticed something on the long term GKP chart.

I see a gap(i've tried to show it with the horizontal lines). Sorry about the dodgy chart, but the gap is around 55p roughly.

My question is this, if we take your Big bad Bear option(LOL), its not a million miles from this gap, right?

Not saying we are going there, but say a bad result in the court case, then possibly.
Just wondered if you had noticed this gap before?
Here is the link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...bd80=&symbol=L%5EGKP

B.Regs,
Trendfriend.

F4T, this site is a peaceful site where everyone’s is entitled to their opinion; please keep your comments above board. Everyone has their own ways of trading and this needs to be respected. We won’t tolerate any confrontational behaviour; please tone it down otherwise warnings will be give out, if it carries on like this.

Evening Bonobo,

I said I'd get back to you later but I've not had a lot of time so I'm winging it a bit here.

Firstly, I think it's dangerous to assume that today's low was THE low. There is plenty of support here but dojis can appear half way through a move as well as at turning points. In addition there's the following (very bearish) possibility:

Big bad bear option:

The move from 450 (465) to 141 was wave A down with B up to 260. C then should be a 5 wave move. This would give 1 of C down to 161, 2 up to 228 and we're in 3 now with a target (for wave 3 of C) at 68p. That would then be followed by a wave 4 of C up and a wave 5 of C down below 68p.

Now, before we all get hot under the collar, this is pure theory and, perhaps more importantly, corrective waves (an ABC sequence) are notoriously complex and unpredictable so I wouldn't hold much sway on those numbers. It does keep the 87p in play though. The rapid drop of the last few days kind of adds weight to this as the 3rd wave ought to be the longest and strongest and that's what we've seen. Add to that today's doji (which can appear mid range) and, well, you get the picture.

Optimistic big bull option:

IF today's low was THE low, then the whole wave structure from 4.5p days most likely (at the moment) means that 87p to 450p was wave 1 of 3 up (this major wave's version of 4.5p to 21p) and the drop from 450p to wherever it goes to is the wave 2 of 3.

You might think this unlikely given the sizes of the moves, but on log scale this makes perfect sense. Compare, for example, the %age change in price between the 4.5p to 21p move and that of the 87p to 450p move. Similar, no?

What's worrying about this option is that we're way below the 61% Fib we might expect for a wave 2. If correct, though, the projection of 87 to 450 from 131 comes in at 718p. Hmmmm....

The upshot is that it's really difficult to say until a bottom has been confirmed. The best confirmation we can get (nothing is 100%) is a higher low followed by a higher high. Only then can we really start to discuss upside targets with anything like authority.

One final note, if we look at the weekly chart (don't look at the P&F one if you want to keep your heart rate down!) then we could really, badly, do with a close above 161p tomorrow. That would set up a lovely weekly candle and leave us with having held onto 161p support on the weekly chart.

The only sensible way to play this is per remo's suggestion: wait for a higher low (should be at the 61 fib) and then go long on the breakout. Anything else has a large dose of gambling involved.

All the best in every way!

J.

Insults are the lowest form of communication diver993. You seem upset at being caught out.hope you feel better now.GKP gets to some people more than most stocks when they get it wrong.ill put it down to frustration at the retrace. Good luck.

There are none so blind as those who don't want to see.
You appear to be a sad case who expects to be correct all the time - and fails.
I do not presume to tell people where to enter, or when to enter a trade: that is for the individual to decide. I merely attempt to provide an indication as to when a trade might be possible. You are obviously incapable of original thought and need absolute guidance. This I cannot provide. If your intelligence level is so lacking then please ignore all my future posts as they will be entirely beyond your comprehension. I have no intention of responding to your provocative nonsense any further.

Lol, I like you diver993 mate. Funny guy.

I do very well and I do this with real money. I make real calls (one at a time) that are usually right, I set real orders.

I give up. I was interested in understanding your system but there is none. Good luck with the fantasy trading mate. I wish you well.

The low at 131 is near enough to 129.51 for me. You're obviously one the the impatient majority expecting exact results. To that end you are in the wrong job: trading is not an exact science otherwise we would all be very rich.

Looks like another lottery number came up today F4T

---

An interesting interpretation. Close was at 141.

"So your prediction is either 161, 129.51, 68.64, 157 or 146.14."

And your bets were on the above. 3 well under water, one not hit and the last a distant dream. Congratulations, you must be rich

Sorry to hear that B77 - hope the scan results are good for you.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONEweekly.png

Here's the projection from the low at 4.55p, up to the high 465, down to today's low.

Looks like another lottery number came up today F4T

I totally agree with Remo to wait for a re-test to prove the change of trend: you have to be on the side of the trend and it's no good trying to be a hero and guessing and gambling, after all there's plenty of potential here. Be patient people

Thanks Jacks. 'Fun' isn't the word, but I did take more shares at 134.9p (had to set a limit order as I was under an MRI scanner this morning).

I personally think that there is a 1-4wk window of opportunity to shake out the margined/leveraged before the next (and maybe even last) uptrend. We all know the fundamental catalysts that could help to fuel this, so I'm interested in your wave projections to ascertain the technical 'wind' that might blow behind GKP on the way up.

Anything below 140p should make a good return, but if the sales are on it would be nice to pick up the best bargains.
Good to hear from you.

PS I'll have a think about what the upside targets might be from an EWT POV assuming a 131p bottom later on. Been out for most of the day (not at the beach unfortunately!)

Hi B77,

I was wondering if anyone would remember that post lol! As I recall, it didn't go down particularly well....wonder why?

Still, even the hardest granite will erode over time against the power of the waves

87p was merely mentioned as an outside chance as a technical possibility. I guess it still remains as such but this week's action, and particularly today's, is significant as F4T has discussed (do I still owe you a pint F4T? Happy to stump up on that mate!).

For the first time during this drop we had a real element of fear-selling and then some decent buy side volume kicking in which suggests this *could* be a low. The day's candle looks like forming a long legged doji ( www.forexbees.com/long-legged-doji/ ) so it'll be all about tomorrow's action now. It needs to open at, or above, today's close and keep going to finish with a bullish long white day.

As remo has discussed, the best thing to do would be to wait for the initial rise and then a higher low to form and buy the breakout. Until that happens we cannot be sure (and even then not 100% sure) of a trend reversal. Prices always retrace after an initial rise so there's no need to panic buy this yet. Even if the breakout to a higher high after a higher low occurs at, say, 161p it's still way lower than we should have exited at.

Best of luck. Fun, ain't it?

From 17th October, 2012

Jackozy: "The bearish case would have it as a wave 1 of a larger degree wave C (wave A being 450p to 139p, B then 139p to 258p) which may go all the way back to 87p."

And a reply:

No joke, if we went sub 100p I would actually sell all my other investments and go "all in"

87p is just beyond the realms of insanity.

You can use TA up to a point, but IMO calling 87p a possibility is nonsense.

desktoptrader.iii.co.uk/investment/detai...n=detail&id=10105321

Would be interesting to know your view on the wave count now, Jackozy.
You are saying that 131p is a significant historic level (farmertim posted good reasons for 129p as a possible low).
You still think 87p is on the cards now?
Also, in terms of the bigger picture, what would wave projections be - hypothetically - if 131p becomes the low of this move and trend reverses?

Not sure my view is valid as I thought the ABC correction from 450 was to include a diverging
B (up to 280-320) before down to a lower C than 141.75.I was wrong.

As Remo has highlighted, a day traders share at present

---

"This could head back towards 120 area or lower if it finishes below 139.
supports....139,,,136(channel target)130(psychological from the past) ,,,119,,,,87,,,64,,,,,52.75(gap)
resistance...151.84,, This needs to stay above 139 today...." Remo

---

As F4T mentions higher vol. so far this week, but the spike downs yesterday morning and today may reoccur until all the margined/weak holders shares have been absorbed by professional buying.

Previous low RSI days:-

28/6/12 RSI 24.046;vol 7.5m;low 139.25;close 141.75, next day +13%
24/12/12 RSI 24.769 ;vol 1.1m;low 164.0; close 164.0, next day +7%
24/4/13 RSI 23.346; vol 4.6m;low 141.57; close 141.75, today ? +/-

Today's vol may not be enough to stop the down trend just yet?

Previous large down week:-

1st week August 2011 -25.9% 143.0 down to 103 with 87p low, vol.48.9m
Current week so far -16.9% 169.25 down to 141 with 131p low, vol. 43m+

Hi Jackozy,

welcome back.

We have had 43MM volume so far this week with the initial technical retrace and subsequent panic. It could go lower but IMO we probably found bottom at ~131, a key level as you note. We have the possibility of a lovely hammer today which could/should hammer out a bottom. We should see indicators turning positive shortly IMO. I'll be bold and make that call.

A 50% recovery of the fall would bring us neatly to 160.

There is good value at levels seen yesterday and today which should be taken advantage of . GKP is a great share for opportunity if you play it right. Not for the faint hearted though.

Let's see what happens
F4T

Totally agree with that remo and that's precisely what I'm doing - waiting for a higher low and then a breakout.

Our old friend 131p came into play today. That's been such a key level over the years: the original high after the oil discovery, the support for when the lawsuit was announced and the big drop happened plus that general area has been support on many occasions.

Will it do the same this time around? Tune in later to find out ))

Also, there's now been a new low below 141p which was always a strong possibility to complete an ABC correction from 450p.

[nb - this is the first time there's been a "proper" intraday drop with real panic and fear attached and, imho, that's normally a good sign. Much more likely to get a bounce off a sharp drop than a slow drip because the sharp ones kick in the volume]

I tried to short GKP the other day and IG did not let me....
I dont no why that was but it seems strange
Typical thou as would have made a packet out of it...

Personally id avoid any new longs as GKP has broken its main uptrend line. Or at least wait for a 123 low to form.
This hit my target of 136 which was the channel target.
The fact that its breaking all supports with relative ease means weakness. This could head back towards 120 area or lower if it finishes below 139.
supports....139,,,136(channel target)130(psychological from the past) ,,,119,,,,87,,,64,,,,,52.75(gap)
resistance...151.84,,

This needs to stay above 139 today....
Waiting for a 123 low to form is probably the sensible thing to do. GKP needs to break the lower lows for the green light to enter. Yes it means that you wont enter at the lowest price possible but at least you enter when the trend could be about to change back in your favor.
Right now this is a day traders share so entries should be for quick trades.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp25thapril.png
currently hammer forming but the day is young.
dyor
remo

Looks like the PI's are having their annual panic. Lottery numbers still rolling.......

Tejassi,

hmmmm. If you are using TA and planning your trades then nerves should not play a part. Actions should be premeditated and automatic. Perhaps you are over committed in GKP? If so, I suggest you reduce your holding. There are plenty of other stocks out there to make money on. Large positions leaves one over exposed, makes one jittery and also tempt the trader to take profits too early.

The time to sell GKP was in the mid 160's when it was clear that support would not be repaired. A sell trigger was needed as the quick retrace was then certain.

If emotions are not involved it is much easier to see the trees in the wood.

F4T

PS: Well done diver993, I see that one of your seven lottery numbers came in

Thanks all for your replies

F4T askedHi Tejassi,
I'd like to understand your thinking when selling at 147.50?
- Answer F4T - I am Just nervous
Sold some the day before and bought back lower, then today big drop seems to show it could go lower so sold some more again then bought back at a very small gain this time. As you said it's a lottery. Don't like May or that unmentionable person! I lost a lot of advantage last year by selling at the lowest point before it went totally ballistic, don't want to be too out because it could happen again. yes I know I am too attached
But can only move(trade) in small windows of available time Because I am at work

I am with Iweb and find it unreliable went setting orders
Regards Tej

Fib extension 'B W X' - yellowish - = 129.51
Fib extension 'X A B' - greenish - = 146.14 About spot on close today.
RSI is bottoming out - maybe one more day??
StochRsi also showing a buy at '0'
Support at 'A' 139.25.
For me, buy on re-test of 161.00

Please excuse the 'ish' with reference to the colours: I'm as colour-blind as you can get

Where too now?
Trend line channel at 129, Fib retracement expansion at 150% is on 129



Fib extension from 259-161 and aligned at 228, equal legs at 129



Daily P&F targets activated at 127



If GKP finishes below 143 then last bullish daily target will be removed..... proper rubbish!

Best wishes all

ft

Hi Tejassi,

I'd like to understand your thinking when selling at 147.50?

This is how I have seen things. 173/4 long term support broke after the sp loitered in that area for several days. When it finally capitulated the sp plummeted quickly because any support below there was either minor or psychological after long term support went.

161 (once strong) became minor support and 150 purely psychological. Each broke without resistance like butter. We now seem to be settling at the psychological level. This is what I wrote a few days ago:

"The second break of support (173/4) has severely weakened this level. If it doesn't repair pretty quick then longs will be hoping that 161 and 150 hold....... A close below 171 will see lots of holders run for the toilet IMO ",

and then yesterday:

"once support is broken all bets are off and the sp becomes a lottery"

It seems we all made mistakes on this one, helped by good old TK of course

Where now? Well, the lottery is still on IMO but note that we have had 2 says of 10MM+ volume, which could be telling. Now we have had the retrace IMO historical supports and resistances will start to regain some effectiveness. That is all.


F4T

Hi - So which is it - Is it a buy at this stage or is it a wait and see? (Sold at 147.50) this morning (feeling a little deja vu) this time last year if I remember

This is currently broken out of the channel. If it finishes below the channel then that would give it a target of 136 as the channel is 22 points wide.
So a finish below the channel and my entry at 151.4 will be deleted. So basically i wont be going long on this tomorrow from that level but the trades still on for today on a first attempt basis. This is going to be cancelled at 4pm as i dont like having trades on in the last half hour.
A finish below the trend line will most likely bring lower prices.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly22_04_13.gif

Uhmmmm....??

[This is a weekly chart and it's only Monday]

Tejassi,

this is what I meant about GKP not being a good company. Shady bankers in control and manipulating things for their own benefit. You have to balance the bad against the asset.

161 now looking like a good call (if it was a call ), but as I noted previously - once support is broken all bets are off and the sp becomes a lottery. It is too late to repair now. The main (only) indicator to look at now is volume IMO. 10MM+ in a day might indicate that a bottom has been reached and 162.50 has not achieved that.

Apologies for non TA talk.

F4T

Not again!

'The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass'
The question is not crass at all. I don't understand why you say that? It's simple, you buy when you can see a five way move in the opposite direction in a shorter time-frame from that which you are trading..........

---

Some people, especially technicians, don't like to talk about money (I am one) and some dislike making a call in case they get it wrong (btw making calls is what I enjoy as it focuses and puts pressure onto me get the call right). If we are to learn from each other we need to understand how others apply their trading systems to make money, so that we can understand and consider it as a potential option / improvement to our own plans. i.e. when they buy or sell.

Now, my call for a turn was 173/4 and 162 before that. Of those two I got one spot on and the other wrong (how wrong only time will tell, but right now it is not too wrong )

If it is not crass then why don't you make a call? Giving several numbers doesn't help anyone understand your thoughts.

Sorry diver993, I am really not trying to be pedantic (though often my posting tone seems that way). I just like to know others thoughts on trend change as that is what makes the money. You say that buying at 200+ is safe and will pay off, but you also say that 68 is on your radar. It just doesn't make sense or is fence sitting. If you bought at 200+ and the sp hits 68 then in my world you are in deep doodoo . You need to choose whether it is going up to 200 or down to 68 within a reasonable timeframe and place your bet accordingly.

I understand your comparison to support levels, but there are support levels in every stock all the way down to when the stock was first listed. It is the level of trend change that is important.

I have a general knowledge of EWT and waves in general, but find it too subjective and certainly too complicated. It is one of the few remaining techniques (I think) that looks at supposedly inherent characteristics of markets as opposed to triggers for participants to act upon and follow as a herd. Fibs IMO have some qualities of both.

I am rambling now so let's call an end to the discussion. FWIW I am confident that we are pretty close to a trend change, I am just not sure now whether that will occur after the whipsawing when the CC is decided. IMO there is value in GKP at 174 even if the company is told to give 30% to Excalibur (I use 250 as a re-risked value for 100% of the company based on the various broker valuations).

Anyway, time to close........
F4T

'Fair enough, I just struggle to understand how these theoretical levels can be used to make money when the first is 100 points away from the third.'
Trying to understand the Golden Ratio is not in my remit. For this you need to consult a higher power How it works? Why it works? I have no idea.....but it does and that's all that matters.
'The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass'
The question is not crass at all. I don't understand why you say that? It's simple, you buy when you can see a five way move in the opposite direction in a shorter time-frame from that which you are trading. So, for example, if you are trading the daily then look for a five way move on the 4 hour. If you jump in before this then you are gambling against the move being an extension. This will always keep you on the right side of the trend.
Don't be fooled into thinking this is a complex system. Far from it, it's just all those labels that make it look that way. Once you get used to all the 'squiggly bits' it's very simple indeed
Take care and stick with what you know

Fair enough, I just struggle to understand how these theoretical levels can be used to make money when the first is 100 points away from the third. Unless of course we reach 68. I can only assume that one is supposed to buy at all three.

The real question is when does one plan to buy but to ask that is a little crass.

I will continue using my simpler trading plans. The simpler they are the more people will follow them, which is the goal.

I of course wish you good luck with yours and will congratlate you at all three levels.

F4T.

If you wish to look at it that way then so be it...I prefer a more considered view: the first target being 161, the 129, and worst case 69 - just like using supports. Using this method keeps me on the right side of the trend which I consider all important; and has proved extremely accurate over the last two years.

I think we should just accept 'different strokes for different folks'!

So your prediction is either 161, 129.51, 68.64, 157 or 146.14.

I rest my case.

Do you have any upside targets?

PS: RSI has back tested, for what it is worth......

My analysis of EWT is based solely on fib percentages and the RSI. Predictions are therefore based on Fib Expansions and, obviously - and not to disappoint:) - you get a different answer dependent upon where you start from.
Go right back in time to when the SP was 4.55p, then to the high at 465 and we are looking at 161.



If we look closer in, to what I am labeling B; W; X then 129.51 is the target.

Now, I should say these are the initial targets: there may be extensions to the percentages. Worst case scenario being a 161.80% extension from wave B at 68.643. And, if it gets that bad then a few will have hung themselves as opposed to just a few tears



Looking close in now, the other alternative is an expansion of the current wave from X showing an initial target 157 and an expansion of 146.14.
I think that about covers it, except to say I accept no responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy of the EWT labels, which could well be complete and utter 'tosh' - but I understand them

Hi diver993,

Can you confirm exactly what your prediction is/was. As I recall, you were looking at 161 as a bottom and Remo was waiting for 149/150? Yours was based on EWT and Remo's on a trendline?

I just want to be sure so as to congratulate at the right moment ;o)
F4T

PS: what happebed to Jackozy?

GKP continues to run exactly as predicted. Those that bought above 200 just have to be a little patient and all will be well. They are paying the price, for buying at the wrong price - expending nervous energy and biting their nails Keep the faith folks!

I'll give you fibs which rarely lie but as you alude, Elliot waves are only correct once the user has changed his count and his mind several times each a week as things develop. By the time the end game is reached all wave theorists claim success even though they were all at odds with one another throughout the process

What you can say about most TA is that it is correct and helpful a lot of the time, which is enough. It takes emotion out and puts planning in its place and gives an edge.

I am still content with GKP, even though it is misbehaving. It is those that bought above 200 that might be a little concerned.

Remo said the other week on this thread that he has seen many good companies turn bad. Most of the time those good ones were only good on the surface. IMO GKP is a long long way from being a good company, it just happens to have one good asset. So long as we understand that, we should be ok.

F4T

I know exactly what you mean....... but Elliott's and fibs just keep marching on regardless: they can never be wrong, it's just the interpretation that gets darn confusing at times

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zU4H7&symbol=L%5EGKP

Well, GKP is not looking great right now. We had a two day break in support, a good rise which broke both downward trendlines and settled on the one from 450 before another break of long term support driven by broad markets.


The second break of support has severely weakened this level. If it doesn't repair pretty quick then longs will be hoping that 161 and 150 hold.

MA20 is at 177.50 but sp need to beat and hold 187 for the bulls to regain some control. A close below 171 will see lots of holders run for the toilet IMO

Well, its the first time I've been wrong on this one for quite a while. Just goes to show that TA doesn't always work.

Might see a bounce today but the pressure is downward.

F4T

Lol

Keep going baby;) As soon as this drops below 170 the 161 should be a given....

SRB

I had this same problem, I'm glad you've got it sorted. But for anyone else having this problem, I finally realised that I had IE9 in 'compatatbility mode', by swithcing it off(or on - I can't remember which now) it now shows all the text perfectly. I hope that helps.

Greville

Its the best browser around id say...big fan of chrome i am. SirRichardBunson wrote:

Thats unbelievable Remo, Google Chrome works a treat and your original post on GKP is now in full view blxxdy marvelous, cheers and thanks, also Tejassi

SRB