Well, I've closed my little short at 141 in case of a bounce off the 139-141 area as discussed. I've also added a small long back in. Not quite sure how it's looking as I'm out and about. Will have a look later on but that was a pretty strong rejection of the 160 level so wave 5 down would be my favorite option still. Depends what happens at this crucial area now imho.

if 137 does not hold then......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_HnS_16thmay.JPG





also came @ resistance....

silly me ...i was testing the time function on the discussion board. Since the server went down last night it messed all the times up. Its alright now as ive re-set it all.
Syrian Empire wrote:

What next WS? Jacko's Wave 5 down or bounce from remo's support at the breakout point of 137.5?
News that upcoming STEAM conference is postponed has knocked the wind right out of the rise.

anybody see a H&S on the gkp chart ? neckline comes in @ approx 145

LOL - I thought you were refering to the retest of 145 on GKP!!!

test:: time now 10:45am

test...time now 10:12am

Remo, I think you've forgotten to re-draw your top channel line after the move to 189.375p on the 9th April. My channel top is at 171.5p today, not 167.8:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily16_05_13.gif

Beautifullly summed up

This broke out beautifully yesterday with a 123 low. Pure technical s .You cant predict this if you were a fundamentalist Eat my chart
all jokes aside this was very bullish yesterday and real strength will come once 167.8 is breached as thats the top of that stubborn channel top thats been in play since the new year.
It seems that all the technicians were aware of the 137.5 level.No matter what way people want to spin this its always in the chart.The smart money was waiting for the first higher high to enter this share. Thats the only way to trade really as it gives the green light to enter and by this method you wont catch a falling knife as much (you should not really catch a falling knife as stops are used below the 2 point) .Obviously stops are still important and now this trade should be a free trade .
dont get emotionally attached and dont listen to all the hype from the discussion boards on iii. We all know how crazy all those kids are
As i type GKP is fighting with the trend line...
Resistance....154(old trend line).161,,167.8(channel top),,189.37
support....145,,137.5,,126,,119

Hi SE,

Yes, I think that's possible as it's also close to the 38.2% Fib which is at 146.84p. In my experience it's quite common for a 61.8% retrace to bounce off the 38.2% level first on the way down.

A drop to 139p would still be bullish IMHO as long as it holds.

Hi Jackozy - Would you expect a bounce off the Gap Up from this morning?

OK, we've pretty much hit 161 (159.5p) so now the question is: was that 5 waves up from 126 to 160 or 3?

The rise from 161p to 228p looked like 5 waves to me for all the tea in China but as it turned out it must have been a three.

The best test for this now is to see whether 139p holds as that's the 61.8% Fib of the move from 126 to 159.5p. 139.25p is also a support from that initial drop from 450p.

I've closed my longs at 159p anyway as that was an easy level - even if it was wrong I could have just jumped back in on a break above 161p - and taken a small short from 159.25p with a tight stop. Let's see what happens now, eh?

Syrian,

Jackozy is quite right: there is every chance this will drop back today, and could well make your target figure. My earlier response was in relation to the overall wave and not the movements within the wave. Sorry if I was misleading.

Hi OG,

I think remo and diver have answered you question but here's my own take.

Here's a weekly chart showing why 161p is important:


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly15_05_13.gif

The 145p and 155p levels come into play as shown here:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily15_05_13a.gif

145/6p was the bottom of the previous channel down (and the Fib extension as diver mentioned) and 155p is where the old uptrend support is now and this could act as a resistance.

The question we all want to know the answer to is this: Is this the start of a new trend up or just another correction with a final low to come?

For me, a close above 161p would make a new low below 126p quite unlikely (but not impossible) and would strongly suggest a new trend up.

A drop below 137.5p would be the opposite and suggest that this move could be the wave 4 we've discussed.

Those are the key levels now as far as I'm concerned.

Interestingly, it's quite normal after a big marubozu candle like today's for there to be a retrace half way down (a la School Remo), and that would be at 140p or thereabouts which is just above the key level of 137.5p.

There's really no way of knowing with a good deal of confidence until one of these levels gets taken out. The volume today was pretty high, though. The highest on an up day since 3rd July 2012 when the SP moved nearly 50p in the day.

PS You can see diver's 161.8% Fib extension on the hourly here, but look at that bearish engulfing candle too!



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly15_05_13.gif

Well Done!! Remo for the call

Got to admit I'm on with Greenhill and don't quite understanding the move up. I was watching the trades today, it looked like more were being sold that bought. a lot late trades appear to be sell too.

Could it be that a lot of buys were though other types of trading spread trading and CFD trades
What are the views on that?,

What levels,should be consider to watch out for given today's movement. entry and exits and new stop loss points

Don't want to get caught out got quite a few meeting over the next couple of days and will not be able to keep a close eye on the share price.

regard Tej

Syrian Empire,

If this is a 3 of 1 then expect a retrace of 38.20% but..... this is GKP, so anything is possible

Hi On Greenhill,

161.00 is the low of the previous completed down move at, what I label W. The reason this is important is because it is both a significant resistance and would certainly confirm the new up-trend.

145.98 is the extension up, from what I believe, is a possible wave 1 of 1 of a new trend. A wave 3 needs to extend by a minimum of 161.80% of wave 1 for me to classify it as a wave 3.

The RSI has already broken above the trend line of the previous move down from X, indicating a change of trend, but I do need to see a five-way move before the trend change is confirmed.

The move down from B at 203.00 is a move of 7 swings, which is quite normal for a corrective wave. The level 126.50 was indicated by fib expansions of B,W,X and X,A,B.

I hope this is of some assistance.

I bailed out at 146.00 today - expecting a pull back to retest the breakout area around 137 - However, it was quite a bullish finish to stay above the 145.
Any insight on how this might play out tomorrow from a TA perspective? Does the fact it retraced to 143.5 and bounced rule out this area being revisited tomorrow?

Hi on greenhill
137.5 is the 123 low breakout point that I mentioned earlier . this is the area that signals higher highs. You need higher highs for an up trend.
With regards to the other areas I'll let the others answer those points.

I think I understand the "swing from 126.50 to 137.50" means that the channel from bottom 126.5 to the top 137.5p.

Thanks.

Hello all,

Just want to understand your key numbers meaning. Firstly "161p still the key number", so if sp stay above 161/160p, it tells that GKP down trend reversed into uptrend. Right?

Key level 145p, if sp over and stay above 145p, what does it mean? OK "145.98 is a 161.80% expansion of the swing from 126.50 to 137.50..", what is the meaning of 137.5p, is it a kind of wave figure.

Much appreciated for your expertise and for enlightening me.

I think this sp jump is all related to the news appeared yesterday about 3:30pm about the Turkish PM Erdogan said at the airport that he agreed with Iraqi Kurdistan, Exxon Mobil on Oil Exploration in Northern Iraq.

I'd like to see the RSI break 75 and the SP to exceed 161 to invalidate the downturn and confirm the move up.
145.98 is a 161.80% expansion of the swing from 126.50 to 137.50....

i love candlesticks esp one's with flat bottoms....lets see if it can be maintained through to close...

at a key level 145


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP...ly%2015thMay13v1.JPG

Agreed WS. 161p still the key number IMHO.

Very similar pattern to the bounce off 161p and 172p in late Dec/early Jan. Volume better at this low though which is a good sign.

In auction now but has a daily high trade exactly at the old channel support (so far):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily15_05_13.gif

Don't forget the stops has to be below 2 point Hense why the risk reward is good .

no change in view J.

Price 1st. initial support 126-131 is holding and setup nice candle sticks.. so for me it's a scalp play for now....

watching volume & watching ~145> 155> 161/172**

also note the change from condemnation, fear and panic to optimism... in the last few days on forums...

rgds WS

Either of you guys (or anyone else) seeing this as a wave 4 of C?

close above 137 will give a 123 low breakout

Nice set-up of candlesticks....still early days..

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_daily%2015thMay13.JPG

Even if that does happen it could still be a wave 4 of C though. (In fact I think that's exactly where we're at here).

This needs to close above 161p to pretty much eliminate the possibility of a wave 4 (even then it could be a diagonal triangle).

I have the the previous channel base at 147.38p today, the old main uptrend at 155p and the previous support at 161p as resistances:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily13_05_13.gif

123 formation may be forming on GKP. If you look
at todays candle its gone lower than fridays candle
but not lower than the low. As long as the low is not
broken then we may have a 123 low formation on
the cards for tomorrow or some time soon as long as the low
is not broken. If the low is broken then its void. The signal
will come once the 137.5 is breached. NOT TODAY thou



This is just for education purpose so people know what to look out for when trying to catch a share thats been in a down trend. This can help in not catching a falling knife as such.
If you look at the chart carefully you can see that there has not been a 123 low breakout since the high in jan so you would not have entered any new positions as such since then

The 123 low will only be valid from tomorrow and NOT TODAY.. AS LONG AS THE LOW(126.3) IS NOT TAKEN OUT

The above should be used as learning material

remo wrote:
Remo, sorry for not getting back to you before.

You can definitely short GKP,, maybe not with IG, but you can with Saxo and probably some others too. The only thing is that following on from the volatility up to 450p, Saxo increased GKP's risk rating and hence the margin required too. It was 15% but is now 25%. I think this was a good move as it's in their clients' interests. Saxo seem to want their clients to win whereas IG seem quite happy for theirs to lose.

Just my opinion from my own experiences with both.

PS Saxo's platform is much more professional too. Open a demo account with them and try it.

Hi TJ - where the final 5th wave stops within the low of 3. so in this example 126 be the low of 3, 4th possibly in play to 145-161, followed by a final wave down to make a 5 wave sequence. can it happen - yes, is it likely to - dont know, but cannot rule it out due to the nature of the move down.....my preference is a slightly lower low with an ending diagonal structure.. be just perfect..... i just like to keep all option open until they remain null and void that means a break and close below yesterday low or a move up abv 161.

am i surprised by the bounce of 126 - hell no.....

and Kudos J on sxx....


Tejassi wrote:

On the basis corrective waves run in 3,7,11 etc, and this is clearly displaying 7 swings from X this could well be the bottom, especially as the fib extensions from both BWX and XAB both point to a finish in this area. There could, of course, be an extension to make this a triple complex correction which would consign the SP to the depths But, looking to the bright side this should retrace to the target area of 157-165 an from there, I hope, head north. Personally I wouldn't get involved in any trades until the 161 level has been tested and it is at this level I would expect to see the 123.

Interesting days ahead?

Jackozy wrote:
Ive tried many times to short GKP but my broker does not allow it. Its got some sought of ban on shorting it. Who do you use to short GKP ???????? If its possible..

Hi Tj,

Re SXX, thanks. I thought it was a cast iron sell at that level. There were about 6 resistances all within 1.25p and would have been easy just to go long again on a close above 30p so not much lost even if it broke through.

Re GKP, no, I'm not back in. I'm still waiting as I don't see this downtrend as complete yet. I might even have a cheeky short if it gets close to 161p

We'll see...

Hi WS Sorry don't understand what you mean by this?
WaveSurfer wrote:
Hi Jackozy are you back in GKP again at this time and suggest 161 as an exit point? Got to admit to being tempted @127p yesterday almost bought

Regards Tej
PS Well done for selling SXX @28p

Yes it's possible - taken from my previous post below. hope that answers your question....



Either wave C will complete @ the low Major A @88p or make slightly lower low to the previous 4 low – there that number again J @ 64p.

Alternatively this can end up being a failed flat:
occurs when the C wave fails to reach the ending point of the A wave (@88p). the market is so strong, that it takes off before the correction has fully completed – news pending ?

there is clear support in the region of 126-131 or @minor a of A @ 106-113p…. hmmmmm

i would also not discount the possibility of a truncated 5th. i watch and observe.

rgds WS

Hi, new to all this..... trying to learn.

So are you suggesting this may be the rally which gets capped around 161p before back down to a lower low, like the 87p, 104p targets?

Thanks

Yup, that's enough to guarantee wave 3 not the shortest.

161 - 87 = 74 = 97 x 0.764 (give or take a 1/1000th)

161 - 104 = 57 = 97 x 0.588

Interesting...

yep

also

w1 of c =~258 - ~161 = 97p
w3 of c = 228 - 126 = 102p

Me too. There was a hammer on the 4H and it's gapped up off that today.

161p still the number on this.

I've labelled a tentative 3 at yesterday's low....

Could it be that this is about to form wave 4 of C? It hit the trendline support from the 64p and 87p lows yesterday and if it closes around 135/6 would form a hammer off this support on the weekly chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPweekly09_05_13.gif

I still think it would need to make a lower low even if it does bounce here so I'll not be doing anything just yet. Well, except for watching and waiting that is!

PS This is the slight drawback with a 123-low approach; in a downtrend waves b of A, wave B itself and waves 2 and 4 of C should all give 123-low breakout buy signals but are only corrections in the downtrend. That doesn't mean don't take them, but it does mean bank profit or move your stops to B/E.

Examples of this on the above chart were:

The breakout above 243p gave a 123-low to go long in Sept 2012 during wave B up;

The breakout above 187p gave a 123-low to go long in Jan 2013 during wave 2 of C up.

Don't get me wrong, 123-lows are great trade strategies, but they don't always give rise to long term uptrends.

This is a chart of SLE, This is what GKP traders should look for to give a green light for safer entry. you can see the 123 low quite clearly on this chart and this came after a long down trend.
GKP is in a down trend currently and any longs are just a gamble as there are no buy signals.
so look at the chart below to see what you need to look out for to give a green light.
Even with the green light you should have stops attached.
I repeat...THIS IS NOT A CHART OF GKP ...I know there are a few crazy people out there that might think this chart is GKP

WaveSurfer wrote:
thats the actual chart...ive made it small so you could see the volume..

Thanks Remo - wanted to see volume correlate between time & price... all good though will look at this and compare against standard weekly chart.

what are the little squiggles at the top of your chart?

cheers WS

WaveSurfer wrote:
hi wavesurfer..
not like the one i just done . i just got the normal volume chart.

weekly