This bounced of the support today..If you look carefully on the chart you can see how 166 has been strong support .
For the bulls to take control GKP has to finish above 186.25.A finish above this could open up 245 again??


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp6thnov.png

One to keep an eye on post its dip this morning. Up against downtrend resistance on the 4H.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Oct...td%20301013%204H.png

M.

Hi WS,

it was a statement of my opinion

Agree that the clearer they are, the more traders will play em (I presume you mean the neckline), but the more that play them the more likely they are to play out nicely IMO.

Cheers
F4T

is that a question or a statement ?

but thanks F4T for your opinion, sometimes its the irregular one that you need to pay attention to, every tomCENSOREDn harry can make out the normal ones as they are are easier to identify (if there ever is such one)... and more often than not they fail cos everybody tries to play em.

just putting out what i see, try to force something that not there on the other hand can be dangerous...learnt that lesson a longtime ago...

all imho

cheers WS !



Food4Thought wrote:

I don't think that qualifies as an iH&S personally. Too irregular in many places. Perhaps you are looking for something that is not there. SP certainly broke out of symetrical triangle yesterday though, on the hourly and daily on my charts.

updated chart on the smaller inv H&S... needs to hold that neckline. and if true breakout then approx 200/05 target. 186 hurdle before that.

cheers WS

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_invH%26S_oct13.JPG

Sorry,it was specifically the '154/7/161' that I don't understand?

Sure - it can go where ever it wants intra-day but on closing basis will signal a warning esp on bigger time frames,a 1st signal that buying at significant price points no longer provides an interest and lower prices are likely. you can ref weekly chart in the below post as a guide....


WS
diver993 wrote:

"structurally and technically remains in good shape as long 154/7/161 remains intact"

WS, could you please explain the numbers quoted above as I don't understand them? Thanks,

Diver

Following on from my last post below here is the daily chart - and support continue to hold which is very important...structurally and technically remains in good shape as long 154/7/161 remains intact on closing basis both on daily n weekly charts respectively

The first inv head and shoulder pattern appears on small time frames as indicated in my previous post, however there is a bigger one in the making..... i've had an indicative 1st target (not the last target) for some time now of around 308/15 based on some fib calculations etc - as an example the move from 129 - 240, a 1.618ext comes in at 308p.

This pattern forming right now on the daily chart also suggests a measured target to that area should it take shape, key levels before that to get through but a matter of time imo.

here is the daily chart & something to keep an eye on.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_daily_Oct13.JPG


dyor, all imho etc...

WS

few things to keep an eye on - no issues really yet from a TA perspective imo.

potential inverse H&S



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_I_H_S_Oct13.JPG


Doji's printed at key price can be very powerful on confirmation and esp this kind of setup


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Weekly_oct%2013.JPG

weekly from a far - focus on purple zone clear support and it's importance historically.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_support.JPG

rgds ws

diver993 wrote:
Please ignore this post: it's total garbage - unless we get a 'b' and a 'c' wave to follow and I think Armageddon has more chance Think I lost it this morning: trying to see things that weren't there .... duh!

I didn't get a fill so I was wrong too. My order has now expired.

I don't want to be a kill-joy but, having look at this again last evening there is a possibility the recent high at 186.25 was the completion of a sub-wave 4 and we still have some way to go, possibly to 149ish if the 5 copies the 1.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

I've shifted my stop to B/E just in case.....

Still hope on the hourly



www.dropbox.com/s/lziyv049ypdx0qs/Gulf%2...td%20161013%201H.png

Above 186 would be a decent 1-2-3 daily low set up which will get me interested.

Cheers,
M.

Monkeyz wrote:
You may well be right. Might comment was solely an attempt to determine where the price was headed and it looks like I was probably wrong

Agreed regarding gaps Monkeyz, I was looking at gap closure of 175 and have an entry planned around there.

Depending on where you measure A your gaps from it could be? A safer entry would be above 186, think I'll wait for that personally.

Looks like this could be looking to fill the gap at 172?

Just a possibility on the hourly chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KPhourly09_10_13.png

Hi M,, hope you're well?

Doubtful still wave A of 2 but, hey, this is GKP so you never know - could even be wave 1 of a new impulse down after an X wave up from 126p to 240p! ))

I was thinking of wave 4's rather than wave 2's last night! Cheers.

If this were a wave 2 then optimistically could we be looking at the end of a C wave down with B having been borne out on the 16/17th September? Pessimistically still in wave A of 2 down?

Like you say plenty more out there!

PS This is the sort of thing you get when you have massive rises without consolidation and/or 46p gap ups - there's just not support and downside momentum builds as it drops through the liftshaft and becomes difficult to stop - there's been plenty of buying at the supports but the bears have so much momentum from the 240p to 187p drop that they're hard to stop.

It's been the same with the Dow/SPX - the rise from 14780 to 15722 was so fast with little consolidation it's no surprise that the drop has mirrored it. Shame I didn't keep that short from 15671 lol!

Morning folks,

Not got my charts open yet, but a couple of points (lovin' your projection post iHS B77 - a touch of poetic license?? lol)...

Diver's right that a wave 2 can retrace more than 61.8%. It can even retrace all the way (100%) but NOT more, though this is rare.

Of concern to me at the moment is the fact that GKP is barely reacting to any support levels, some of them quite major, and also the fact that there appears to have been a failure to produce a convincing wave 4 on the way up to 240p. It's still possible, as long as 166p holds, that this could be wave 4 but that would be exceptionally weak if so.

The two primary options in my view are, therefore, that this is wave 2 down which means the bottom is hard to pick (ref Monkeyz 123-low idea) or the whole move from 126p to 240p was a 3 wave corrective move and it's going much lower eventually.

My preference is the former (dare I invoke fundamentals to support this view lol??!!), but I remain cautious. If it is a wave 2 then there's an interesting projection: if wave A of 2 was 240 to 203, B of 2 was 203 to 220, then a 161.8% extension of A from B comes in at 160p - very close to a known, significant, support at 161p - which could support B77's iHS view, albeit with a rather bent and twisted neck!

Funding concerns and general market fear have clearly taken their toll here but it's interesting to note that since the rise to 166p from 126p, the availablity of stock to short has been either very restricted or completely non-existent to PI based trading platforms. Has anyone got an explanation as to how that's possible? The stock is clearly being either heavily sold (someone exiting a big position in anticipation of a 50m share placing?) and/or shorted, so if the instis can short it, why haven't we been able to? Very frustrating...

Oh, well...there are plenty of other fish in the sea!

Whilst a wave 2 retrace is usually 61.80% of wave 1 it is not set in stone and can run to 76.4% or 85.4%. What is for sure is, it cannot be 100% of wave 1.
My stop is at 164.50 so maybe I better extend it a couple of points if Bonobo's H&S is gonna work-out. I had the top of wave 1 at 166.00 which was why I opted for my stop. The next major support would then be the low of Dec 2012 at 161.00.

Diver

Optimistic. I'd wait for a 1-2-3 low on the lower timeframes before getting involved with GKP. Currently nursing a couple of longs which will get the chop tomorrow if it carries on down. It's just not showing any appetite at the moment.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Oct...Ltd%20081013%20D.png

Below today's low would invalidate a wave 2 retrace would it not Jackozy or Diver? Do you have any views on alternate counts?

Cheers,
M.

171p broken. But is an inverse head and shoulders forming from mid 2012? And will 164p be the bottom?

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png
Looks like this is heading to 171. And, for me, this looks like a wave 2 as it's looking like a 61.8% retrace of the 240 high.

Diver

GKP is at the important level for a bounce. Im already long from the trend line at 188.6.
My stop is 10 points .


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp30thsept.png

190 is the breakout point and the gap fill area.
im going long from there on a first attempt basis. Another good level would be the trend line . Thats at 183.5


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp20thsept.png

dyor

Hi Folks - agree with most J & D - various confluence of support (fibs) approaching and some TL's and break out points...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_4HR_sept13.JPG

Rgds WS.

Firstly, Diver - no need to apologise to anybody! Who gets it right all the time, especially with GKP??

B77, the gap has not yet been closed but the SP is approaching an area of multiple supports:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily19_09_13.png

Depending on your view, the gap stands at either 193p (the high of the previous day - ignore the big green candle low) or at 187.75p which was the close of the previous day. I prefer the latter for determining stops.

In addition, we have the breakout point at 189.75p, the uptrend support which will be at 183.5p today (Fri), the 50% Fib of the 129-240 move at 184.5p, the 50% Fib of 126-240 at 183.2p and the doji from 6th Sept at 184p. Pick you own from that bunch but I'd have a stop below the trendline in case it goes.

If the trendline does break then I'd look to 171p as the 61% Fib of the 126-240 move for a target for wave 2 down from 240p with a stop below 166p.

At this stage we cannot be sure which wave we're in so it's best to use other methods such as standard S&Rs (which we should be using anyway with waves only as a guide).

Little doubt that a new uptrend is in play though, but I would like to see a close above 230p and then 260p to be completely sure!

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

Rats! I hard a horrible feeling this may happen: the move to 203, though settling at a strong support, was not a three-way move. The low today, which my software shows as 196.00, is as close as damn it is to swearing to the 38.2%fib retrace of wave 3 at 197.69, and is also a 61.8% extension of sub-wave (a) from
( b ). In short, I got it wrong. I shouldn't have trusted the support, strong as it was, without the fibs to back it up. My apologies. Sorry!

The question on all our lips: did the gap close?
Doesn't look like it.
What Fibs are in play now?

SirRichardBunson wrote:
Its not a bear flag.
Bear flags comes after a long down move...so the opposite of a bull flag.....

surely thats a bull flag?

Am I looking at a bear flag forming, Im not sure if I have seen one before at the top of a trend perhaps the experts could enlighten me.


Only another 499 to go (only joking Remo)


www.screencast.com/t/wl7dnNsxI

Ya wee devil! Just convinced me to reset my target to 259. Already upped my stop to 209. In at 204. Bon chance mon ami!

remo wrote:

This should be a free trade now for anyone that got in at 203.
Ive moved My stops on this to 208 .

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp17thsept.png

An alternative assessment to EWT, but also bullish.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ZA%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Firstly the retreat from 240 tested good horizontal support at 203 twice and held leaving a bullish harami pattern on Friday. SMA50 also crossed above the SMA200 giving a Golden Cross, strengthened since both indicators are now rising. Nice back test also on RSI breakout with indicator also now rising. Also noticed that there is a breakdown of long term bearish divergence on MACD.

Trendline support below 203 is at ~197 which is also the 38.2 fib retracement of 129 move and 193 below that depending how you assess gaps.

First upside resistance is minor at 214 (50% retracement of 9/10 rise and 23.6% retrace of 129 move. Above that we have horizontal resistances at 228, 240 (new) and a strong test at 259/60. If 260 falls then there is a gap in the 334/337 area from March 2012.

Looks a good platform for an extended rise next week so long as 203 is not tested a third time as IMO it is likely to fall if it is. If 203 falls my sense is that 193 will hold.

All set up nicely IMO with only fundamentals to spoil the party (cash/production) but technically all looks good.

SirRichardBunson wrote:
SRB,

I wish I knew is the honest answer. There is always a chance this could go lower but I would be surprised if it went below 197 as this is the 38.30%fib.
I firmly agree with Remo regarding the 202 support level and I'm long as that level also falls within my target area between the 23.60% & 38.20% fibs, which I look for for a wave 4 retrace.
So, everything looks good; now it just needs to follow through

Regards,

Diver.

Big UP

Well done holders.... more to come ? Monthly has not even got going yet but it's close....

Current count suggest a major wave 1 of Primary wave III.

Longer term charts..
weekly



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Sept14_Weekly.JPG

monthly


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Sept13_Monthly.JPG

one with fibs from low of 4p to high 202 P1 (highlighted) fibs...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Montlhy_Sept13v1.JPG





All imho, dyor....

rgds WS

Hi Diver,

Always interested to see your EWT breakdown, just one question for you is wave 4 complete in your opinion or can we expect another minor wave down below 203 before major wave 5 up.

Regards

SRB

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

How I see GKP. Please ignore some of the labeling, especially in wave (( iii )), as it was slung together. I think the overall is about right.
Where wave 5 goes is THE QUESTION. There are many possibilities, of which 242 will be the lowest - this is a duplicate of wave 1. 263 is a 161.8% extension of wave 4. After that there could be all kinds of extensions into the distance. For all holders I hope the latter is the case

Oh it's so good to have the broadband back

SirRichardBunson wrote:
My stop is at 185 as taking the gamble on this...lol

Remo what's your stop loss on this trade please is it below the gap fill @ 193.00

SRB

Im long on GKP from the 203 area.
This level has been support and resistance for gkp for a long time.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp12thsept.png

SRB,

Lots of reading and then studying under Eric Morriera, who's responsible for the Elliott Wave Forecast. I'm by no means an 'expert'so please don't take anything as 'set in stone': any advice is meant solely for guidance as nobody can see the future, which is the very reason all trades should be accompanied by stop-losses.

Have a great weekend.

Superb Diver thanks very much for taking the time to explain that I will watch now with great interest, by the way where did you obtain your EWT knowledge.

Thanks again


SRB

SRB,

Your question is a bit like asking 'how long is a piece of string?' but I'll do my best
The wave 5 forecast at 204.74 is definitely not a maximum: it could well extend considerably from there. Wave 5's should make a minimum of 1.236 of wave 4; or equal wave 1; or make 61.8% of waves 1 thru 3; but 1.618 of wave 4 is a good average to anticipate , but it will be a watching brief.
On completion of wave 5 we will get an ABC correction for which we should target 50% to 61.8% retrace of the previous wave. If the retrace does not make at least 50% the previous wave was an 'A' and not a primary.
I am assuming this to be a motive wave purely because the structure fits the bill: wave 2 corrected wave 1 by more than 50%; wave 3 was a 1.618 extension of wave 1; wave 4, if indeed it has finished, retraced between 23.60 and 38.20% of wave 3. All this is pretty standard structure so far. All we need now is for wave 5 to behave otherwise we have to think again and re-label.
So, the answer to your question is, 'nobody knows' but, the above are the clues to watch out for.
Hope this helps