PPS As you'll note, that screenshot was taken nearly 2 weeks ago and price has dropped in line since.

Hate to say it but I think this is what's going on here now:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...earcount14_01_14.png

It looks to me like a massive triple three correction (ABW-X-ABY-X-ABZ) which could end at around the 112p mark. IMHO there is now far more evidence for the bear case than the bull one since the recent failure to take out the main downtrend resistance at 191.25p:

To start with the move from 126p to 240p looks to be a clear 3 waves; the drop from 240p to 148.75p seems a clear 5 wave move but these can both be counted differently. The subsequent rise to 196p was to the 50% Fib which is pretty classic wave B stuff and then we've had a failure to break that 196p level after a retrace and while that's allowable, it should have at least tested 196p again to form an ascending triangle. The fact that today it hit 161p (the 100% retrace from 196p) and closed only just above it suggests at best a very weak upward move and, more likely IMHO, a signal that in fact we could be in wave 3 of Z down from 191.25p.

If this count is correct, then I'm afraid that there are all sorts of complicated permutations allowable under EWT including an end above the 126p low so calling the bottom on this could be extremely difficult. What I'm looking for is a set of 5 waves down from the 196p high and that, for me, ought to be the end of this entire correction.

For the bulls, an imminent bounce and close above the mid 180s is required and even then it will need to go on and take out that 196p and then 240p level before they can be confident IMHO.

PS We all know EWT is complicated and only an atlas with many possible routes so be careful trading using that. Remo regularly shows that simplicity is often best and basic S&Rs, 123-lows (good option in this case) and other risk controlled options are usually better.

This had finished bang on the short term trend line on friday . That was a warning sign of a break through...(hindsight)
The best place for any new longs now is at the 150 area only so dont go jumping the gun now.
This area has 2 levels of support converging as you have the main trend line and the horizontal support.
Id use a tight stop of 5 points from here.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp27thjan2014.png

good luck

This has come back on my radar.
Im gonna go long on a first attempt trade at 170. Stops are gonna be tight.Stops should always be placed below a near by support and in this case if i do enter at 170 then the stop will be below the support at 160.75 so around 159. Hate round numbers.
This is also approaching the area where it broke out from the 123 low a while back. This was at 168.5.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp22nd%20jan2014.png

GKP is in a sideways market so always harder to trade. Just bear that in mind.
Sideways markets are the hardest to trade . So i feel sorry for all the newbees out there that try and trade this.
Its still one of my favorite share thou

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...220114%20%28-%29.png

This is an hourly chart. Looks like we have to go to 176, or maybe even 173.40 before we see this rise....

Apparently there is a meeting today between the Deputy PM, Al-Shahristani; the Oil Minister, Elaibi; and a KRG delegation. If anything productive comes from it - if - it may provoke a market reaction this coming week.....

just for fun

Lovely reaction off the gap and pitchfork support on Friday giving a cloud breakout too:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily12_01_14.png

Note the cloud resistance for the lagging line is at 203p which fits in with Wavesurfer's and Diver's view of a pullback from that area, perhaps to backtest the 196p or trendline break.

RSI closed right on its short term downtrend too and indicators have turned up. Bit of time yet on this but near term target remains 240p.

Big thanks WS

Done, see below diver993 wrote:

WS can you do me a big favour and send a link with your charts, cos when we click on them they are still the same size as on the web site. Now, this may be fine for you, but some of us are 'optically challenged' and its very difficult to see the detail in your charts. You go to a great deal of effort to produce them, it is a shame they cannot be appreciated by all.
Cheers,
From a blind burger

Well its going to be good 2014 for this share i suspect

this is looking really good now and ready to fire up n join me on my mission to mars n beyond lol. the Folks on chat will know what i mean.....

Both daily and weekly are looking fab, monthly still got a bit to go but if daily n weekly start going this will naturally get monthly on its way.

Imo the way i'd like this to go is is hit 190, 196, 200, ideally close with green candle and then start to pullback to form a bull flag. a few reasons for this: if it goes up to quickly then too much energy is used up and every time we hit this zone it gets slammed down, want the price to pullback slowly and in the process re-build the energy up to smash through abv 196 and get going higher to prices in previous post. see daily chart. either way this is going up based on current chart and ignoring any fundamentals whatsoever.

177, 180.6, 185 & 196 remain important short term.

168 - line in sand

Daily
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Daily11Jan14.JPG



Weekly

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_11Jan13.JPG



Monthly

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Monthly%20Jan14.JPG



Regards n all the best WS

JAcko said: 'Hard to know whether we'll get a test of the recent 196p high or a gap fill at 173.75p first ...'

I think you just got your answer.

It will get there imo. still plenty of work to do tho .... 240/260 is going to be an area that must clear.

once it clears both grey 1st & green zones 2nd then 340 will come into play, i suspect going forwards that the 240/260 resistance will become support like the old 140/160 range in not the too distant future.

Cycles all part of game, and when 3 gets going you will see the power. 1.618





rgds WS

Yep, agree with that Diver. Hard to know whether we'll get a test of the recent 196p high or a gap fill at 173.75p first, but a break of 196p would be a 123-low breakout (following the downtrend from 240p) and would target that 240p high for a wave iii on my count:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily05_01_14.png

Note how there has not been a close below the Andrew's pitchfork formed from the 126p, 240p and 148.75p price points.

This could be about to leave the sub £2 bracket for good if my wave count is correct and I'm tentatively looking at a 339p gap fill in late April (w/c 21st) though there's along way to go before that can happen.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

Today's lower high may signify the start of a pullback. Interestingly 50% of yesterday's high falls just about at the bottom of the gap formed yesterday. If my coding is accurate, and its probably a big 'if', the next wave will be a iii of 3, and will therefore be pretty dramatic. I'm suggesting 236 as a target. This should be a minimum and could well be exceeded. There will, of course, be a couple of little pullbacks on the way.
This could all be 'cloudcuckoo land', but I doubt it

have a great & safe new years all... roll on 2014.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Monthly_Dec%2013.JPG



warm regards

WS

Best place for a first attempt trade is 167. stops below 161




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp18thdec.png

Sorry didnt mean to thankyou for that Mr J,but while i'm here, thankyou for everything else.

Looking good for an entry around the 167 gap close area. Also ties into the 61.8% retracement level as well.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Dec...m%20Ltd%20171213.png

Hi jackozy
yep my one has it at 465Jackozy wrote:

best place to go long is 167
due to trend line and gap support
in the same area???



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp17thdec2013.png

Hi remo,

Hope everything's OK on the family front?

Your GKP chart looks like it has an all time high at 465p. Can you confirm please? Some charts have this figure and others (eg updata) have 450p.

Thanks.

hi richard
The trend line for today is at 207


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thdec.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp%20weekly.png

Hi Richard, just been discussing this on live chat with J.
465 high was a spurious O trade above the spread, real high was 450.
This gives downtrend resistance at 203 today.

Could someone give me the trend line resistance today using the 465 high of 20/02/12 and the 240 high 10/09/13 on a more accurate system than my advfn pleas this gives me 201.47, how far am I out please,

Much appreciated.

Good call guys managed to close above 1.83 too , any thoughts on the gap left on Monday though?

Regards

Andrew2013 wrote:
A finish above 190 should open up 245 as a realistic target.
This has already broken 123 low formation from the recent down trend from the 245 high. So now looks like the correction maybe over. This has also finished above the short term down trend so that backs this up.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp9thdec.png

GKP has been going side ways for nearly 2 years now so hopefully back towards the top of its range 260

Hi wave surfer/remo/jacko if we see 179/83 taken out where would you see a realistic target , I'm currently long 168 .

Regards

updated weekly & monthly view.

short term needs to hold abv 173 and take out 179 n 183 for momentum to upside.

Monthly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Monthly_Nov_Dec13.JPG

Weekly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weeklyDec13v1.JPG


all the best.

WS

Lol I mentioned on chat on friday a big move is coming either from last Friday or early as Monday today, no idea abt news...just based on chart. Could it be

Lol! Just when charts say a rise needs to happen here we go: www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petr...201312090700139803U/

And here's the chart with one of Wavesurfer's pitchforks on it:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily07_12_13.png

maybe ?

lets see how it holds up, plenty of work to do, needs to get abv 166, 173, 179 n 183 to get going.

161/159 important to hold short term



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_WeeklyNov13.JPG

upclose



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_weeklyNov13Upclose.JPG

regards WS


Jackozy wrote:

To be balanced, there's a possibility that it's a bear flag that's forming despite the bullish candles.

Just thought I'd throw that in for fun as Devil's Advocate!

Any other views?

Could take an entry on a 50% retrace or break of the high. Obviously the safest entry is above Monday's high.

M.

Meanwhile...



Bullish no?

Spot on Jackozy re: CC etc. There is no place for positive bias or emotional attachment in trading / investing, especially on a pro-technical site as it may influence others to risk funds that they do not have. Some never learn.
Jackozy wrote:

A good place to go long for today is 158.9. This is where the new up trend line is for today. This is drawn due to the down trend line being broken recently. Stops are below 153 so small risk.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp3rddec1.png

Hi B77,

I'm a little concerned about the weakness since 178p, yes. There's now a possibility of a negative RSI divergence at that price though, like most things in GKP's chart, it's not clear.

As far as Dec 13th is concerned, the assumption among investors will be that an appeal will be refused but that may not be the case. In any event, news of the original court case victory didn't do many favours so I think it's dangerous to make assumptions regarding either the outcome of the hearing or, indeed, the impact on the SP either way.

Morning Jacko - and thanks for your analysis.
I am assuming that if GKP fails to close above 167/8 today then you might revise your analysis.
Dec 13th is a big day for the company, however, and the prospect of clean title with no appeal might be enough to keep your upside targets in play. Volumes as we approach that date will no doubt be key.

This is looking good for the medium to long term now IMHO. Here are a few different timeframe charts starting with the daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily01_12_13.png

Weekly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KPweekly01_12_13.png

And the monthly showing a lovely hammer:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Pmonthly01_12_13.png

Levels to watch next week are 179p, 171p, 186p, 173p and 193.75p. I also think that there could be a retrace to 166p after that to test the breakout point (and form a wave 2). The next projection after that is at 240p - all these EWT projection come in at known price resistances or supports....nice.

PS They're just speculation. Buy the dips might be a good policy here now IMHO.

The main down trend line from September is holding this back



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp22ndnov.png

There is 2 possibility on GKP for a long
The first one could be going long on the trend line play which is currently at 142.3(changes daily).This will be a first attempt trade only.
or wait for the 123 low formation. The level to go long on this would be a break above 168.5 as long as we don't go below 148.75 in the mean time.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp20thnov.png

Nice island formation currently and this after a hammer.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp14thnov.png

Possible hammer at 149/151p support today.

There's a price low at 151.25p but the 149p comes from the 78.6% Fib of 126 to 240 and it's also the target for a 5th wave given by wave 5 = wave 1 (240-203) taken from the wave 4 high: 186-37 = 149p.

Needs to follow through tomorrow to confirm.

Stops should be below the main trendline of 141p.

Its hard to believe but GKP has been in a sideways market for 3 years now. This share has been good for the short term trader but for long term its pretty ordinary .Its not really gone any where and with its fundamentals its surprising This just proofs that fundamentals dont work as good as technical.I used to be emotionally attached to this share ages ago as well but i know from experience that you should never get attached to any thing with regards to trading so hence why im not any more.
Ive been in and out a few times on GKP. The important level now is 141 roughly. If that goes then 126 and possibly lower. The worst case would be 87 as its the bottom of the sideways market price. Id be surprised if it gets that low(based on fundamentals) and i know many would just throw in the towel if it did.The only people that are sitting there comfortably are the 12p brigade .For them its not an issue as most are sitting with free trades. I was one of them but sadly am not any more as dont hold any shares any more.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp%20far.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thnov.png

support...141,,126,,117,,87
resistance..165,,179,,189,,220,,245

bear in mind there is always a GKP type share out there so dont have all your money riding on one share. Trading is a long game.

Agreed on the c. 140 target. I hadn't given much consideration to beneath that aside from the obvious 126.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Nov...td%20131113wk%20.png

All the best,
M.

IMHO 140/1p is the only sensible place to attempt to catch the bottom of this knife, but much better now to wait for a 123-low set-up if you can. Here's the weekly showing how the long standing support at 141p meets the main uptrend from the 10p days at that level in the next few days:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KPweekly12_11_13.png

If that trendline goes on a closing basis then it's goodnight Vienna to £1+ IMHO and bonjour to 87p or even 64p (which still might come after a bounce according to one wave count option).

Fundamentals? What are they??!!

HI Pez - 161 was the 1st level, now below 154. daily needs to turn and get abv 160/1 or the possibilities of 141 remain in sight,assuming price now hold below 154 and takes out 151/52.

rgds WS

Thoughts on the price action? WS I noted you said 154/7 needed to hold on a daily/weekly closing basis.

155 close yesterday so just held on the daily but sentiment seems at an all time low so not looking great?