Hi richard
109.572 is the main level to watch as thats where the 123 low breakout point is.
Its still the important level to watch. The green light for GKP will only come once that level is cleared. Even then you still would be cautious so would have to use stops. The normal place to put stops would be below the 2 point but in gkp case its too far away so i would place it below 100 so maybe 97 as there is some support there.
There is no need to rush in to trading this share until some green shoots pop up.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp2ndapril2014.png

psyurmh wrote:

Hi guys,

First post for me. I am also someone who has moved across from Jacko's site.

Are people still waiting for a break of 109p to go long or now that we have had a low lower than 96p is the 109p irrelevant?

Thanks

Richard

RC your first 123 low target ~102 has been hit. Good call.

SRB there's two 123 low's on GKP daily chart

1) 1 = 81.93 low on 1/4
2 = 109 on 9/4
3 = 83 on 23/4

2) 1 = 83.25 on 23/4
2 = 92.82 on 25/4
3 = 83.75 on 28/4

I am trading the second 123 low as its better R:R and SL is not too far away!

Redchilly, I presume your doing that on the basis of the 123 low on the hourly and not the proposed 123 low on the daily. Just thought that you might want a close above 92.82 to confirm that possibility or have I got your trading plan completely wrong ?

GKP 123 low breakout
I have gone long at break of 93
SL is below 83

Lol, livenow! I think I can manage....really has gone truly bonkers on there now though. Still, it's understandable as it's a very emotional share with many in up to their necks and severely underwater (anyone heard of stops?).

For now, like others on here, I'm just waiting for a confirmation. Whether that comes above 108/110 or whether there's still more lows to come who knows, but it ain't the only stock so I can wait.

hello jacko, I see you were being hounded by the ignorant yet arrogant , delusional happy clappers on the IIi board. really not worth trying to talk rational logic with them. looks like a lot of them are upto their eyeballs and heavily underwater. and hence would explain their extreme paranoia about anyone with -ve view about BOD.

hope you keeping well and brushed the rubbish thrown your away aside.

Apologies Slow Eddie, I hadn't realised just how confusing my reply was until pointed out by Count.

Thank you Count for posting the link to the Pattern Site: it is extremely useful for checking all kinds of structures.

What first attracted me to Remo's mousekateers,was his simple and straightforward approach to trading xstrata and as a result my view is to keep it all as simple as possible in order to avoid any self knot tying antics.

Eddie, I found this link with example diagrams showing wave and subwave counts useful ')
thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html

An ending diagonal is constructed of 3 sub-waves of lesser degree, 5 times, and only occurs in wave 5's. These, and leading diagonals, found in wave 1's, are the only instances where a wave 4 can overlap a wave 1, but wave 3 still cannot be the shortest wave. There will be a divergence in the RSI to confirm the wave 5 and the sub-wave 5. If this doesn't exist you will probably find the structure is an ABC and not an ending diagonal.

Could I ask what an Ending diagonal is..how its recognized and what it generally means... I am getting the hints but a clear definition would be great.

Looks like an inside bar formation today, could be the bottom of a trend or continuation after pause for breath!

Interesting to see which direction it takes.

screencast.com/t/vmsxnZDOC

Hope the file works as I'm a bit out of touch

Tom aka MD

Hey WS,

Just trying to match your chart to mine, and was wondering what points you are using to draw the bottom line of the ED?

Cheers
Woody

Hi remo,

I was referring to WaveSurfers ending diagonal, asking if this is indeed the pattern SP is following then SP will breakout when pinched by diagonal. I used SP of 70p just as an example of where that might happen.
My question was would the SP typically then be expected to move up very sharply after breakout from an ending diagonal.
Think Jackozy understood my gibberish and kindly answered. Thanks guys.

Yes, an ED is often followed by a strong move in the opposite direction but that's not a guarantee.

Whether 82p holds or there's a new low, 134-144p is going to be a big technical barrier going forward due to the high volume gap and multiple previous supports (now resistances).

I like WS' idea of an ED. There's certainly plenty of volume at these levels so that bodes well that a bottom is currently being put in. It's just the detail that's missing and nobody knows that for sure.

I have supports at 82p, 70p (gap), 64p (major), 52.75p (gap). Resistances at WS' 96/7p, 108/9p, 120p, 127p (important if 82p does hold), 134p (Fib), 138-144p (high volume gap).

hi count
im not certain what your question is?????
Count wrote:

So even if not a 123 low and it transpires pattern is ED and let's say breakout then occurs around 70, it would be typically expected to be a very strong move upward?

Thanks

Yep....as long as the low does not get taken out.

Count wrote:

nothing naive abt it count, all questions welcome that what this site is for to help all when possible....

need to see a price sustain abv 96/97p 1st and take out the high of 109 (to open up a possibility of 123 low) to negate the ED, which imo (the ED) is not a bad thing.

15-21 May seems to be crucial...
Count wrote:

Thanks ws.
Maybe a naive question but is it still possible that 82 could still be the low and a 123 low pattern is still possible....109 (1), 83.25(2) .......~136(3)
I was encouraged by 86 holding at close yesterday.

this is starting look like an ending diagonal, failure to take out n reverse off 96/97 may just confirm it.... then 87 > 82 > 70/64p likely

quick n dirty chart....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...d%20%28DFB%29_ED.png

Trendfriend,

I'm a great fan of the RSI divergence because it indicates a new low forming. Most people think it shows that price is moving up - it does, but not instantly, first there has to be a new low - either a wave 5 or the completion of a C wave; then we get the rise. This is why so many 'gamblers' become disillusioned with the RSI: they don't understand what it is about. It's a strength index. What happens as a move completes? Less money gets involved, hence the lack of strength, hence the divergence. This game is all about patience.

It's a great tool to use in conjunction with Remo's 123 low tips on this board: if there's no divergence the chances of making a new low are great increased, so I keep my distance, but, if the divergence exists the chances of success are high!

As Remo has already said, be patient and wait for the break of 109 and you will reap the rewards.

Where's the TA Eddie...? Doesnt say anything that's not in the CPR. Debate for another board I feel.

A major piece of analysis of what the CPR indicated and its strong divergence with what GKP was saying over two years posted by Gramacho on Friday. This is fundamentals with a vengeance and is a game changer in that the wool has finally been snatched from the eyes of so many PIs. It brings into serious doubt the honesty of the BoD which few can still have much confidence in. Cant say what effect it will have on the price but its sobering and a sober price might well follow...

There's a nice RSI divergence on GKP.

I know some of you are not big fans of this indicator, it seems to work well for me.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9s%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

DYOR,
Wishing everyone on Chartsview a good Easter weekend.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Still forming the 123 low formation???
Its had some doji candles in the past few days. Thats indecision...
no buy signals yet but the 123 low formation is still a possibility.
Long above 110.....and not earlier.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp16thapril2014.png

Thanks Remo!

Hi sham
Welcome to chartsview. Hope you like this personal site
The live chat is only for the premium paying members.
its accessed from the bottom of the page.
click on chat rooms and you should find a helpful bunch in there.
The live chat may have some minor issues as have been attempting to upgrade this recently but having a lot of headache. But its working for most as far as im aware.

chartsview.co.uk/plan/subscribe.html?Ite...group_id=0&plan_id=0

Have fun
remo

sham321 wrote:

Hello just messaging to introduce myself guys. Was a keen follower of Steve's FTSECHARTS site and been doing all I can to brush up on my technical skills and learn more. Just wanted to say thanks to all contributors here as the discussion is certainly useful and has already "saved me" from making some poor trading decisions thus far (mainly by making me assess and reassess the rationale for entering a position).

I did have a quick question as regards the live chat? Do you simply open it and then start chatting or do you have to subscribe/get invited to the rooms?

Thnx Jacko, that's a distinct possibility.

I dont surf anywhere without my fibs;) which is why I like 82 as a bottom but, if we repeated wave 1 from 109 it would give us 74.42 low, which is not a million miles from 76.082, which is what I have as the 123.60% ext from 195.50. As we know only too well, extensions are always possible too, as has been demonstrated many times with this company, and would take us back to the bears....

If a wave 4 up from 82p then I have wave 1 = 196 to 161, 2 from 161 to 191, 3 from 191 to 82 and currently in 4. Is that what you mean?

I also have possibilities which have 82p as the bottom and one which sends this much lower in time. Got to be careful surfing the waves without checking on the current and tide conditions!

Hi Diver,

Sorry but I'm not sure I understand...if this is a potential wave 4 up from 82p then we must have already had waves 1,2 and 3, no?

Jacko, so where do you see waves 1,2 & 3 to go with this potential wave 4?

I do count the current move to 109.00 as a 3 way structure .....

I forgot to add; the bounce off 92p on Friday will generate a downside target if it fails to take out 109p. This will become active should 92p fall.

The maximum downside target that could generate would be 58/61p - also not far from the next price support at 64p.

Daily trend remains down so be careful, stick to the "Remo Rules", use stops and take profit at resistance. Simple.

I was wrong about there being no active targets (should have thought about it more). It's been an interesting exercise but please be aware that the following may contain errors as I have done this manually. I used 1 x 3 box size (points, not %age) and prices based on highs not closes:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPP%26F13_04_14.png

Ties in nicely with the "standard" TA of supports and resistance.

Roxy,

No, I haven't got a p&f chart with auto targets but if I find time later I'll manually calculate them. I suspect that most are probably not active targets though.

Yes, 126/7 is resistance from that 2013 low but that's only part of the story. Also, I'm not referring to it as part of a 123-low formation so I think you've slightly misunderstood my post. I'm saying that it's a possible wave 4 high of some degree so if it gets taken out then it's less likely that the current move is a wave 4 of larger degree.

Just something to watch IF we get the 123 breakout first.

Jacko I know exactly what you mean about the 127 price: this is the May 8th 2013 low mentioned in my post and was the previous swing-low which needs breaking to confirm a trend change. However, to class it as a 123 low it would have to be the low and that currently belongs to the 81.93 on April 1st. What Remo looks for with these moves is a retest of the next high above the low, in this case 108.96 on April 9th; which is why he is looking to enter at a break of 109.

Of that there is no doubt and i stand guilty as charged.
Mr J,do you have access to any associated point and figure,up and down?

Hi Roxy,

There's no way of knowing in advance, we just have to read the price action as it occurs.

We're some way off right now and we've not even had the breakout yet. Then there's 120p and 127p to worry about. Assumptions of upside in this share have been the downfall of many.

Thankyou as ever Mr J.
I have watched this share over the years and moves seem to happen with indecent rapidity and if what you suggest transpires,then the question is whether to exit positions just north of 130 or at the gap around 140?
I know it's only a few points but they all add up.

IMHO if there's a 123-low breakout on this then the really key area is 127p. If it can get above (and preferably close above) than then there's a reasonable chance that the bottom is in at 82p. That doesn't mean it'll power on though - there's massive resistance in the gap area between 138p and 144p. Here's a daily chart which I'll try to explain briefly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily12_04_14.png

I said in chat a while ago that the form of any initial rise should help us identify where this is going. However, as it's GKP, there's still room for doubt lol!

The question is whether the rise from 82p to 108.5p (109p) has a 3 wave form or a 5 wave form. If it's the former then it's unlikely that 82p was the bottom. The funny thing is, that little triangle throws a little doubt on the matter. You can see it more clearly on an hourly:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly12_04_14.png

As you can see, the move up can easily be counted both ways (not uncommon) but the fact that it bounced off the 61% Fib at 92.5p (so far) is encouraging as it's deep enough to be a wave 2 (I'd expect a B wave to have bounced higher).

Since this does not give us sufficient clarity, the next best thing we can look to, assuming a 123-low breakout does occur, is where the next short term top comes in. The previous bounce off 97p in mid March went to 127p. This is therefore our cut-off area; a move above that would suggest that the current move from 82p is unlikely to be corrective (ie followed by new lows) since it would violate the EWT wave 4 *guideline* (emphasis on guideline - it's NOT a rule). If 127p holds it back then we're still in doubt and will have to wait for other signs (which I won't go into now).

If bullish then the target for the next move up (again, caveat "assuming it happens") should be 134p and this ties in with my view of the importance of 127p. That said, even if 127p holds it back it doesn't mean it's not bullish - it's all about balance of probability!

Either way, there's huge resistance in the 127-144p area so that would be a good place to take profit (caveat) IMHO.

Interestingly (and speculatively) a bullish sequence of minor waves here should, in theory, go as follows: 82p > 108/9p > 92p > 134p > 117p > 143p and then a retrace to c. 105p and that ties in nicely with the gap where we'd expect a decent pullback anyway.

What jolly fun this share has been!

Good luck!

This is a closer view of the chart posted yesterday....
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...%20%2812April%29.png

....it details the fib extension from the low at 82.00 > 109.00 > 92.12(yesterday). For an ABC one would expect a target of between 100 - 123.60%. For an impulse we should be looking for at least 161.80%. There is a low from May 8th 2013 which needs to be broken to confirm the uptrend. At the moment this is at 123.60% so, this move has either a little more to drop before moving on - doubtful looking at yesterdays candle - or it will turn at 126.38 and form an ABC, which could be part of the first wave in an impulse, or, it could steam on passed 126.38 to the gap area above the 161.80% between 120.62 > 143.00.

Interesting times ahead

Should we get the close above 110 I have the initial target at 125.67 which also coincides with the down trend line on the 17th April which is also previous resistance so interesting area to aim for initially.

www.screencast.com/t/WshggPwx

SRB,

As an example of, not straight forward impulse and corrective waves, take a look at this chart for EUR/GBP....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/eurGBP%20%28-%29.png
The (( B )) wave ending at 0.8815 is a 5 wave impulse but hardly the archetypal 5 wave move seen illustrated in the text books. The ABC that follows it is still in the making with an extension in the C wave. This is what I mean when I warn not to expect simple pattern follow structures. Hope this helps

SRB,

Your supposition is correct but, those waves need not be straight forward and can contain extensions and complexities, especially if past performance is any guide.

The golf today was suicidal: the wheels not only came off but shattered. I am beside myself with grief

Have a great weekend and lets look forward to wave 3 without undue delay:)

Potential 123 low formation on GKP


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thapril2014.png


This is what people should wait for before entering any share...This method stops you from catching a falling knife.
The entry level will be 110 ...
The buy signal has not activated yet so dont jump the gun. If it does activate put the stops below the 2 point....Its that simple.

good luck
remo(keeping it simple)

Diver

Will it 5 minor waves in major wave 1 and an abc in wave 2.

Hows the golf ?

SRB