Well, after a lot of dithering we finally reach the next crossroads. RSI support broke yesterday as did 78.25 support. One might expect this level to form as resistance should it close at/below this level.

I inserted a new trendline which gives an interim support at 76 before 72.25 and 64.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...v0%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Volume is key and will tell us how low it will go.

F4T

Ps: Fun and games over at AFR.

This should be it. Third test on 78.25. Let's see.

Hi orsotoro
Yep it is a very significant area. 64 is very strong support.
The reason i have not mentioned that level is ,im talking about a very short term trade based on a possible double bottom and that comes in at 72. So having the stop below 64 would mean a huge risk to reward .Even thou that would be the ideal area to have the stop at. So if 72 fails as a trade then the next best level to go long is at 64.If that level breaks then GKP will be in big trouble.
I should have mentioned 64 but im glad there are people like you that will correct me.
orsotoro wrote:

Hi Remo,

Why would you not view the mid 60s ( 67 on the weekly ) as a significant support level ( the 2010 low ) ?

yep that should be fine...Normally you would place stops below the nearest supports from your entry..In this case its roughly 65 but that would mean a bigger stop so your level should be ok as a first attempt should not really go too low

Thanks Remo.

How tight should the stops be? I was thinking 69.5p, but wondered if there was an indicator that would be useful.

Thanks

Possible double bottom trade coming up..This is a first attempt trade only and tight stops should be used.
If this level breaks then this could head down to 53.75 where there is a gap support thats strong .


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp31stjuly2014.png

Hi ps....

well, 79 looked like a bottom in all but one respect - volume. RSI support held firm, but I was/am not convinced.

My red trendline has potentially changed from support to resistance.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8%3D&symbol=L%5EBLVN

Support still in the 81.50 area, then shadow support at 80 followed by horizontal support at 78.25 and 72.25. Below that is 68 (CPR ) and 64p.

Resistance at 86.50-86.75

If 80 breaks then the horizontal supports will come into play. It could go all the way IMO.

Look for volume of 15M+ to indicate a bottom, either on the way down or surge upwards.

F4T

Nice call Ian

Let's see if 81.5p holds. What is the support below this level?

Thanks

More shenanigans at GKP today lol. Guy gets fired by the shareholders but still keeps his job and salary. Incredible corporate deception.

Anyway, back to the charts:

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...aM%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

On the daily we closed right on shadow support. Next falling support (red) at 87 and then stronger rising support at 81.50
IMO it is the cloud cover / engulfing candlesticks that give the game away

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...F8%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

We can see on the hourly that support is already broken with the close and another engulfing candlestick.

F4T

Here's my take:

On the daily we had a nice bounce off my red trendline and a perfect backtest on RSI which I had been waiting for. A bullish harami points to potential upside on monday and I expect 86.50 to be the short term low.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Dly8=&symbol=L%5EGKP

We can see the technical breakout on the hourly, the same trendline forming another falling wedge. The positive divergence on MACD and on RSI (in the apex) gave the breakout power.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Xo%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

The technicals worked beautifully on GKP again IMO.

Cheers
F4T

You can see how the down trend line has held gkp back. Clear to see.
There was a 123 low breakout recently on gkp . Thats what powered the move higher. Clear to see on the chart.
So this dont look to bad as there are signs of strength building. The green light for entry was the 123 low but if you did not enter then , then look for this to clear 110 and then the trendlines.
im not a holder as i missed the entry been busy.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thjuly2014.png

I would expect more downside on this so I have withdrawn my orders. 90 support hit today but hourly chart shows the weakness. SP rose only to close opening gap but open and close were below trendline.

Candlestick chart
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+YDg=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Price action clearer on line chart
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+KVs=&symbol=L%5EGKP

One would normally expect a pennant like this to break higher, not lower.

F4T

It is a key area (50% retracement of move). We will need to wait to see if there is a winner. IMO the trading below 97.25 just gives the bears the edge but I wouldn't want to call it given the minor divergences on the hourly. Let's see what happens.

Well Ian it did test and go below 97.25 but seems to have bounced off 96.75 ( or close) twice instead. Could that be another support or is this just a way point to further falls?

Hi Eddie,

yes it is a bearish reversal pattern. It does need confirmation if SP closes below 104.75. See attached.

www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=3212

One thing I missed on the last post. 97.25 has now been tested twice and is the key downside number short term IMO. A third test and I would expect it to fall. Conversely, it could prove to be a good retrace point as pointed out by Diver.

Key upside number is still a close above 109.

Cheers
F4T

Hi Ian Just wondering what a three outside down pattern is or signifies...presumably bearish?

The way this has retraced more than 50% from 116.75, I now doubt this is a 5 way impulse move, rather an ABC....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...%20%281Hjuly2%29.png

.....The way I've drawn the extension on this chart will probably need amending as the SP progresses as there is no guarantee it has bottomed out at 97.25, even thought that marks a 50% retracement of the move up from 78.25. As it stands the extension shows a predicted 141.75 at the 100%, which is pretty close to the 140 resistance established from way-back.

Keep an open mind and let's see what develops. I'm certainly not suggesting this chart is set in stone, more a work in progress, and very much subject to amendment. It will be interesting to see what develops.

We seem to be approaching another crossroads already. Fast rise, fast fall. Looks like 109 held firm on closing basis.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...DZJJqXtB4G0+XLAoai0=

Bearish engulfing pattern will become a three outside down pattern today with a close below 104.75. Looks certain to me even this early in the day.

Low so far today of 97.25 is the retrace point from 108.50 on the initial rise. Below this there is the ma50 at 92 but IMO a slightly more solid support is in the 90 area with a declining trendline (red) and ma20. Look to RSI for a retest of the breakout for guidance.

More solid support can be found in the 80/81 area.

F4T

PS: 61.8% fib is at 93 so a close below this points us squarely to a 100% retrace to 78.25

Apologies for being a little patchy with my explanation, alas it's not one of my strong points, and I'm usually short of time due to dashing here and there as a taxi driver for my young sons. What I should have said is the possible endings for waves are places were one should be prepared for something to happen; points were you might want to exit if you're being conservative for example.

F4T,

The 50% retrace you expect should come on completion of the 5 way impulse move in the shape of an ABC correction. Wave 4's do not usually exceed 38.2%.

Once again, I would emphasize this is an hourly chart we have been discussing, which would normally be used for intraday trading or judging entries for swing trades.

SRB,

After the completion of a wave 3 expect an ABC 3 way correction.

Yes, if we continue above then we could still be in wave 3 or, wave 5 could also extend. Nothing set in stone here I'm afraid

I don't follow the fundamentals outside RNS's so wasn't aware yesterday that takeover mania had hit this share again lol. I was very surprised when this rise continued so far after the (second) breakout from 89p (particularly the rise to 111 after the 38.2% retrace from 108.50). Now all is clear.

That 38.2% fib retrace yesterday has been the only one in this mammoth rise so far. Normally one might expect a minimum 50% at some point on such fast ascents. I am not saying it will because I know how mad PI's get with TO talk (how quickly people forget!) but the first few days of next week will be interesting for sure.

F4T

Just two other things Diver,

What can we expect after the completion of wave 5 on the chart is it an ABC or 5 wave correction and should we continue above 119.65 which was the higher option 2 Wave 1 thru Wave 3 x 61.8% could we still be in wave 3.

Thanks

Diver, your a star and thank you for taking the time to explain that so well, excellent. I have produced the wave 5 possibilities' on a chart and I also found the RSI divergence requirements between waves 3 and 5 something I never knew so thanks again.

Maybe one day we could have the chartsview pro-am and have that round together would look forward to that.

Thanks again much appreciated.

SRB,
What you are looking at is a Fibonacci Extension as opposed to a Fib Retrace, and this attempts to give guidance as to the construction of the upcoming wave. This particular extension starts from the low at 72.25, up to the high at 89.00, then down to the low at 78.25. The 100% you see is generated by the chart and is a duplication of the pips from said low at 72.25, to 89.00, but starting from the low at 78.25.
Why bother with the extension? Well the formation of the wave gives guidance as to what we can expect next. A wave 3 needs at least 161.8% extension of wave 1, starting from the bottom of wave 2. If the wave does not achieve this it is probably an ABC correction.
In this instance we have already achieved 161.8%. So things are looking good for an impulsive 5 way move.
Wave 4 normally retraces between 23.6 > 38.2% of wave 3. GKP retraced to 97.25, an almost perfect 38.2%.
Wave 5 can be many things A duplication of wave 1. So that would be the ‘low at 72.25, up to the high at 89.00,’ which would result in wave 5 terminating at 114.02. It could also be a 61.8% of wave 1 thru 3. So, 61.8% of 72.25 > 108.50, resulting in wave 5 finishing at 119.70. It could also be a 161.8% extension of wave 4 resulting in wave 5 finishing at 115.45.
Apologies for not posting a chart with all the possible wave 5 endings but it's all rather messy and would only confuse. Better you produce it for yourself then you can see things clearly as you proceed.
To confirm the impulse we also need a divergence on the RSI between waves 3 and 5, i.e. the RSI at the top of wave 3 is higher than that at the top of wave 5. This reflects the dropping in bullish interest you would expect after the initial onslaught of a wave 3.
The thing to remember in this instance is, this is just an hourly chart and, as such, is of more interest to intraday traders than investors. However, the same disciplines apply in whatever timeframe you are trading in so all the above is relevant.
Sir Richard, if all the above is ‘teaching granny how to suck eggs’ I do apologise, however maybe it will be of some use to others.

The golf…… the wretched game! How it has the ability to grab you and reel you in I know not….but I’m hooked, and have been for many a year. Sad isn’t it! It’s actually very similar to trading in that, the more you learn the more realise you know very little. Ce sera huh!
Keep smiling. It’s the only answer

Forget that Diver I've just had another look and confirmed what time you posted so I presume the close on the 26th (95) was your guideline, what was confusing me was the candle that followed afterwards on your chart, anyway based now on what happened yesterday would you revise that fib chart at all as Im wondering if the first hours action could have been wave iv in your opinion,

Cheers

Hi Diver, I was just looking at your chart this morning in a bit more detail and I'm wondering if you could just clarify something for me. Your latest fib chart has the 0% at the bottom of wave b at 78.25 and the 100% retracement at 95.00 and therefore the extensions at 99.55 and 105.35, why 95 as the 100% I cant quite see where the 95 comes from.

Thanks for your help and how's your golf recently

ah thanks... thought I recognized the style and glad to know as difficult as GKP is to read you usually got it right

I for one appreciate your posts F4T and hope you'll stick around. It's always great to get debate and different view points, observing the individual TA styles from you very knowledgeable guys.

all the best

I did.

Excuse me F4T but on Jackozy's site when it ran did you post as Ian?

No worries mate. I probably said too much (as usual) but hey ho!

Totally understand where your coming from F4T and having had previous bad experiences I know the feeling.

Thanks for getting back to me

Tight Lines

You have a good point of course Bunson. I agree that what you suggest can be positive in terms of the learning curve, but I find that publishing trades often leads other traders to follow the lead instead of composing their own strategies and then if the trade should fail there is remorse and ill feeling. Not always, but even once is enough. Losing money is painful and anonymity does not help to control bitterness.

What I try and do is show the chart and highlight the indicators in play. Readers are then able to research those indicators themselves and draw their own conclusions. Even in hindsight this builds confidence and skill. Too many readers of these boards are too lazy to do the work and it is those that get upset when things go pear shaped.

Even when just highlighting the chart and indicators one is open to negative comments and/or correction from other traders that happen to use different setups. This is common and you see it on all boards. People are stubborn. I am!. There are many ways to trade.
I upset Diver one time because I just could not get to the bottom of one of his setup's / strategies. I plainly just didn't understand it, but that didn't mean it was wrong or flawed. It clearly worked for him. Remo (god bless him) is just too much like a schoolmaster. Too black and white IMO.

The best discussion board that I have participated in was that of Jackozy. The guy is both a good and experienced trader but also a good teacher to beginners and he also embraces other methodology that he might not use himself. It promotes harmonious discussion and learning. Such a pity he could not continue his good work.

I have a good reason for posting and it is completely selfish. When I post my idea/strategy/setup it forces me to be thorough in my work and this helps me to limit errors. If it helps others then great.

That's all. GKP rising, so I will post again when I think we are at another crossroads.

GL all
F4T

Perhaps I should have added my proposed trades

GKP Will go long on a close above 108.96 ,,1st target t-line (today 125.58 )
Will buy on 24%/38% on any retrace from todays high so far 108.50 and 79.25 low

All these will be based on good indicators from the book L2

SRB

You know F4T I think sometimes that's where we as a board get it wrong, that is not publishing/discussing our trades prior to execution . I don't mean the amount's involved I mean entry and exit levels prior to the actual execution.

From a technical point of view we all know/discuss the supports/resistance's/t-lines and fibs but as a group we trade individually. Some might think that might be the best way but I for one would welcome people discussing their possible entry and exit levels and reasons why, not to be persuaded on placing a trade but maybe to confirm my own thoughts.

What do you think ?

I don't like to publish my positions, but yes, I sold late yesterday and today.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...DHYibKxqpsrvwJQCmFY=

I have just looked at and redrawn the daily. I have a trendline (red) that cuts the second breakout point from yesterday at 88/89. 61.8% fib of rise is in the 90 area. I will wait for these to re-enter, all being well. It may take a while but I can wait. I expect lots of volatility over the next month. If it doesn't get there, so be it.

As expected the retrace has been fast and deep. If it continues rapidly I will review again.

Cheers
F4T

Hi F4T, no, I took my stake out at various points over 250p (from 9-11 p) so the free ones I have just let ride, yes in hindsight I should have off loaded at 450p and bought many more back at 80p but I am not a great entry / exit point man and often dont have the time to watch.

So, have you sold on the spike to 107p this morning?

Will you re-enter and may I ask at what price point?

Cheers
Ade

No worries Ade, I know how frustrating this share can be. The falling wedge and divergences pointed to a bullish move as noted a few times in this thread. It was just a matter of being patient and flexible. I always find it curious how often fundamentals somehow support technicals.

Wow, you held to 450 and back. Very brave.

What would you call true value? I thought the CPR put the assets in the 68p area? Best stick to the technicals on this one and just trade IMO. Too many people have lost their shirts here.

I had been waiting since 185 to re-enter and did so when it seemed clear that 64 was unlikely to materialise.

Cheers & GL
F4T

This has had a great run, well done food4thought, good call.

However for me this is still in bear mode, the chart(link below) shows how this hit resisitance, and dropped back.

If this can clear 109p, a test of the main trendline at around 128p is likely.

Below 109p???.....

Back down imho.
The time to buy this run up, was on the break 92p, now a pull back is likely...

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...2Q%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend.

lol, only teasing

It has been a share which I think has frustrated a lot of people, almost impossible to predict, with the news of certain events being out of the blue, it almost makes charting it impossible?

Glad I held my free shares (from 9 - 11p days)but would like them to see true value one day.

My, how selective people can be lol.

Food4Thought wrote:
Hi Skipper.

I will give some commentary here since I am following this retrace and no others have.

See hourly chart:

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PsJ0z+OJD1xRxndFw08=

This demonstrates the stall at 85. RSI resistance and trendline resistance. We are also in the 61.8% fib area.This is a good sell point IMO.

A good attempt to garner interest with the RNS and it has brought a break of the important 82 level, but given all the above I will expect a retrace to at least 72.25 over the next week. My bet is still a retrace to 64 at minimum. I will test the water there.

Do remember that anything can happen.

Cheers
F4T

---

MY, how the outlook has changed

TA working beautifully here. Nice double breakout yesterday and follow through today. The signs were clear IMO.

Are you still waiting for 110 for bullishness Remo?


PS: Now is the time to be careful and think about profits. Whatever rises quickly often falls quickly. I can't see this closing above 110, in fact 110 is a good sell point IMO.

From I high of 108.50, the 50% retrace is 94 and the 61.8% fib is 90.50, so somewhere in that region to re-enter.

As always though, anything can happen.

F4T

AdeMcG,

For intraday trades you could look to go long on the pull-back, i.e wave ( iv ). Wherever that finishes - certainly not necessarily 91.75....

For anything longer term, this needs to close above 109, IMO. And that might include the wave ( iv ) trade referred to in the first paragraph the way the sp is currently moving

I think it is always to be a closing basis (REMO Correct me if wrong)

Should we wait on a closing basis for 109 or will intra day be enough?

So buy on retest of 91.75p ? If there is one.

Here's the 1 hour chart....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...20Ltd%20%281H%29.png

....the move up from 72 has been fairly predictable: an ABC to 89.00 followed by a pull-back to 61.8% at 78.25; we now look like forming a 5 way move, which may or may not have ended. Wherever it stops expect a wave ( iv ) to make a 23.60 > 38.20% pull-back of wave ( iii ). Wave ( v ) should then head up toward 109, with a bit of luck