F4T- just wanted to express my gratitude for your posts.
On top of great trading insight / profits I also gain a lot from your analysis especially when confronted with other member views i.e Trendfriend / Remo

Top guy!

Thanks & have a good weekend

One more point for today. A close at or around the 85 mark will give us a gravestone doji or shooting star and that spells reversal.

F4T - I agree, This has got to have a breather, saying that, isn't it announcement of government posts over weekend or Monday? Have another flirt with 87p?! Bank holiday, so may get last spike up on Tuesday before proper pullback and consolidation. I've got that 96p area too - Interested in how it finishes today, I reckon you could be right with the 85p/flatish finish. Well it's been a good ride - watch for that inverse head and shoulders though....

GLA

Personally I think it is overextended on this rise now & will need a breather. Last time it went further but in two quick moves. You rarely get 5 or 6 days in one move without retrace. I would expect a close around the 85 mark.

Horizontal resistance above at 96.50 & a higher target of 116 is reasonable in time. The next trendline resistance I have on daily is in the 113 area & 117 on weekly so plenty of blue sky above.

If you were watching the charts yesterday it took 3 attempts to break 83.75. After the second attempt it told me that we were going higher.

Regards
F4T

Hi Ian

If we close above 86p what targets should we consider and what would you expect as a minimum?

Thanks (as always)

Huge technical move today. Breakout on daily and weekly but held by RSI resistance currently on weekly. Completed ascending triangle target and stalled at the 20ma on the weekly.

Needs to close above 86 to confirm/consolidate this position. Very bullish.

F4T

Big rise from 61p, so a pull back would not be unexpected? Maybe your head and shoulders isn't a bad shout.

Potential Inverse head and shoulders...

2nd possibility....

Great to close on a high today. I've got 2 possibilities here for EW counts - so different implications for fib extensions, this targets the historic 87p area, the next one I will post the 91p area.

Both have implications of inverse head and shoulders forming - a strong bullish reversal signal to this long term downtrend. Which I will also post.

I think we have actually closed above the 50 SMA, but slightly below the weekly?

Here are a couple of trend lines I drew on this chart a few months ago.

I did buy this time low 60's and am about to take profit as it is at resistance.

At what point it needs to get for me to think that resistance turns to support, I have no idea.

Any thoughts welcome.

Richard,

all IMO.

A safe sell is at 84 or a little below, ma20 being ~84.50. My trendline on the weekly is now at around 85.

Target for the ascending triangle on daily is 90. I am not sure it will get that far on this rise, but it is possible. Depends how far the traders think they can push it before dumping.

First support now 75.50 being breakout point.

SP now hesitating before 84 which would be expected with resistance above.

GL
F4T

Hi Ian,

Your analysis is looking pretty good so far. Thank you.

When you say "84 minimum" do you mean the share price should peak at 84p (presumably as a buy) or 84p as a target to sell at?

I preseume if it is a target to sell at, you would probably need to sell at a price of circa 83p due to the spread?

Can you clarify.

Thanks

Richard

Hope it plays out for you F4T
ATB,
Trendfriend

Yep, sure is Richard. Technical bounce today on break. As I noted earlier, I expect 84 minimum, being the ma50 and trendline resistance. If those two fall then look to horizontal resistance at 96.50. Resistance on the weekly is around 90. No hurry, but there's more here for the taking before a retrace. Indices being negative is holding it back IMO.

Glad you made some money TF.

F4T


psyurmh wrote:

I closed my position here, technically the set up is good, but there is a lot of resistance ahead.
I don't feel very confident IMHO, and i'am happy to take a small, but quick scalp here.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...YU%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

As always dyor,
Trendfriend.

stops should be below 67...thats where the 2 point is..


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp20thaugust2014.png

this area is also part of the 123 low formation(not the biggest)) but still is..

I went long @ 77p.
i was waiting for it to clear the 20 day @ 76.5p

this should be good for a bounce to around 85p IMHO
I will move my stop quickly, as this is high risk imo.
Regards,
Trendfriend

validation always comes with a finish above the breakout point...Prices should stay above the breakout point for more than 2 days atleast

I'm wondering too… does breaking the triangle intraday indicate an entry or best to wait for a close of 75.5 or above?

Hi F4T

We have hit 77p this morning. Is that a break of the triangle?

Hi Amo, yes I do. They are precise enough for my trading.

Hi F4T,

Do you using the ADVFN charts for your trading or is that just for illustration purposes?

Thanks
Amo

time for another look at this.

A simple chart, clearly showing how the 15 and 20 moving averages are a barrier here.
If a stock is unable to break even the 15 and 20 day moving ave's, there's nothing bullish about it at all.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...RGBA=&symbol=L%5EGKP

We do have a bullsh falling wedge in play, normally you would lean towards the bullish side with this formation, but this is GKP. It has not respected any bullish technical patterns since the heady heights of £4+


F4T, yes agreed, nothing wrong with changing my mind, only i'am some way off actually doing that!!
Regards,
trendfriend

Nothing wrong with changing your mind TF.

Progressing nicely. We are now in the apex of an ascending triangle. Breakout from here will bust the ma20 and IMO take us to ma50 minimum at ~84/85 which is also a trendline resistance (bold blue) on my chart.

RSI looks like breaking back through resistance as SP breaks above lower trendline (blue).

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yC30=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Remember the falling wedge on the weekly. Breakout point there (weekly trumps daily) is in the 90 area, so possibility of a double breakout on the horizon.

GL
F4T

This surprised me today, as i was expecting it to continue lower.

There's a potential long entry here imo at around 75.5/76p
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xnuk=&symbol=L%5EGKP

This is a close up.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...34%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

A move above 75.5/76p would be a mini 1,2, 3 low formation.
It would break above the 15 day EMA. (@76.2p currently), this has been barrier for a while now.
If we also have a RSI move back above the Mid March support line, it would be the first positive move here since the last spike up.

stop would need to be below the 2 @ 67p, so from R/reward point of view not brillaint.
Lets see how it goes tommorow and the coiming days, as its important not to jump the gun and wait for levels to be cleared.
My preference is still for this slide lower imho, but one must trade what we see, and i'd be happy to change my mind!!
ATB,
Trendfriend.

EG,

don't know the answer to that one but the close is always more important than the range.

TS,

I was wondering why you are not shorting given your extreme bearish view?

Cheers
F4T

F4T,

Thanks for the response and apologies if my Q seemed a bit stupid and/or poorly put. It just occurred to me that a close above a certain key level might have more 'meat on the bone' as it were if it had been mirrored in the trading range immediately prior to close rather than 'pumped up' in the after close auction.

Hi Folks, been a few days since i had a look at this.

Here's some new charts and a summary. i don't have any positions here ATM, and i intend to side step this for the time being. Below is my thoughts, based on what i see, no emotions or bias included lol

This bounced of the bottom of down trend channel at 61p, wish i spotted and traded that!
This is a chart, going back to July 2013.
This shows the downside target of 50/53p as soon as early Oct.
lets remember, we have a gap at around 53p. Just Coincidence?? i think not!
For the upside this could test the top of the channel at around 100p, and still be firmly in down trend.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...is%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

This is a close up chart. Note how similar the rise and subsequent sell off is from this rise, and the one in early July!
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wOqs=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Like i suggest this is best left alone, if one can't resist going long, wait for a break of the 20 day at around 79p, as this could provide the strength for the push to 100p area.
However i feel this is unlikely, and from a technical perspective this very bearish.

In summary, IMHO keep clear of this, it's not looking good, i expect this to slowly make it's way down to low 50's over the coming weeks. I like to bottom fish, but this just does not have risk/reward for me ATM. i will see where we are in a week or two, or if we hit 53p. It is very possible we could go lower than 53p, the down trend could just keep going.

F4T, Yep, i'm still bearish on this.

Good luck however you play this, it's certainly not for the faint hearted
Sorry if people wanted a more bullish view here, but this is honestly what i see.

Best Regards,
trendfriend.

EarlGrey, not sure what your question was tbh. A close above 72.25 is a close above 72.25 and a close above any resistance is usually positive. Not yesterday obviously.

My five penneth

If we push on from here and tomorrow head towards yesterdays high of 75.67 and close above it then we will have a possible 123 low formation with an initial target of 83.84.

Looking at the action on level 2 today there were lots of MM's activity filling quite large orders
so as long as we don't go below todays low ( would give different target) and longer term the 61 low then this could be on.

www.screencast.com/t/xTkqkkmL0hc

F4T:

"A close above 72.25 needs to be consolidated/cemented before a move higher."

I had wondered if it made a difference that the close above 72.25 was higher than the last O trade buy. Or put another way, for a close above 72.25 to be significant does it really have to be within the trading range at close rather than above it? Thoughts?

not TA of course but possibly a lot of PIs only now waking up to how close IS was/is to GKP's major oil field...

My timing is perfect of course! But this is often about patience, particularly with GKP which is played with/traded a lot and has many fundamental influences.

I am comfortable with my medium term view. That is what the TA is telling me and I trust it to prove correct most of the time (but not all as it is not a science). A close above 72.25 needs to be consolidated/cemented before a move higher.

Let's see where we are at the end of the week.

F4T

I must say I am quite surprised at what has happened so far today after finishing above the resistance yesterday.

I presume this does not bode well at all...

Second the hope you will not feel you are cluttering up board when your posts are highly valued.

Just like to clarify and probably not too properly speaking TA lol ... I have noticed over time that Thursday is usually the day for GKP if a bit iffy it gets worse and then tends to recover on Friday. If a close below 72.25 occurs say today or tomorrow but holds for Friday that would still be bullish for next week?

I have to agree with you psyurmh.

Great posts from you F4T, you are not cluttering up the board.

I'm sure everyone values your input and views especially on a share where most people are frustrated with!

Keep up the good work

Hi Ian

Thanks again for your thoughts. I for one don’t think you are cluttering up the board and I value your views on any share price action.

I hope you continue to post.

I am officially bullish on this now.

On the weekly we have positive/bullish divergences on many indicators, two falling wedges and an (uncompleted) bullish harami. Extrapolating the formations, a breakout from the first falling wedge (blue) should send prices to the second (red) if all goes well. Could take a few weeks to play out, if it does.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...JYfg=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Add this to the daily action over the past few days and all looks positive to me. the close above 72.25 was a good step move IMO.

A close below this level bring back the bears with 64 and 53.75 gap.

I've been cluttering this board up so won't post for a while now.

It would be nice to see someone else's view on this, for comparison. Trendfriend, are you still bearish?

F4T

..... for balance, a close below 72.25 has the potential to bring 64 back into play.

A quick note.

Some nice price action here. Nice bounce off 64 support area with a hammer like candle and 2 day volume indicates a potential bottom (for now). Currently at first resistance 72.25. Next is 78.25 but I wouldn't be surprised to see 81 before the next retrace. Just my guess/bet as this is ma20 and in the area of some trend lines. Might only get to 78.25 though.

Currently (at 72.25) we have a very attractive bottom like formation - hammer, engulfing, thrusting or a combination of all. Looks great technically and a close above 72.25 should give more bullishness this week.

F4T

Deleted

Hi Richard,

stops should generally be placed under the next support or below the last swing low (or even under the previous days low). It really depends on the circumstances and can be different for each trader. Remo discussed this in his GKP post last week.

F4T

Hi Ian

Where do you think stops should be placed?

Richard

F4T,

you have Bearish stocks, and you have do not touch me with a barge pole bearish stocks.

This is currently the latter i'm afraid.
although i would happy to be wrong.

ATB,
Trendfriend.

Trendfriend,

this has been bearish since 450, nothing has changed.

The key with trading is to take advantage of peaks and troughs. Don't try and pick bottoms and with companies like GKP, never look medium term and certainly don't invest. History has born that out.

Todays action was pleasing and IMO certain after supports broke at 78.25. We should see volume to 15MM today and that was my mark for a short term bottom. The two most important indicators are always price and volume. I expected to see 64 (possibly tomorrow am but IMO unlikely now ) but 67 is good enough for me as it is at the CPR level for asset value.

The downtrend will likely continue, especially since we now have a lower low now, but I expect upside in the interim, same as the double breakout from the falling wedge a few weeks ago.

Traders and the city love this share, so it will continue to give excellent returns for the nimble. Always has done, long or short.

Let's see what happens.

F4T

This is looking very bearish, one to avoid, any bounce is likely to be short lived.

Next stop here, 64p, and then the gap imo.
The chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+Uk8=&symbol=L%5EGKP

This is from a couple of weeks ago, when the price was around 80p.
The lower targets look likely here.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...3s%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

There's better risk/reward trades out there, this is one to leave alone for now imo.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Biggest worry is that Spreadbet Magazine have this week tipped both GKP and XEL for rises - surely the kiss of death!! lol