to follow up with a chart - coincidence or what ? price (32days in 8 to go) and time ?

need to start turning up & taking out previous high low to start with to invalidate



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Daily%2024Spet14.PNG



WS

Judgement day - as early as tom or by end of week possible.

if gkp does not turn back up from here by tomorrow, then i'm expecting a drop to at least the lows of august and more than likely take it out and start hunting for a new low.

i'm more inclined to think if it does drop, then it wont be a drip drip drop, it would be again in the magnitude of the drop that made a lower low in august ( big red candle 10-20 pips approx, then once that happens think the market will start to find the low - and it's so close to doing it.

no change in my view and price area to watch remain the same as per previous few posts, just thought i'd mention what i see as of today close.

All the Best WS

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gA%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Nothing new here really, just an update.

We finally got the bounce off the red support line and a retest of 73.75 on Friday. Nothing happening with RSI. Volume increased a little with the dip to 69 suggesting that interest will be piqued below that level but the bounce was half hearted.

I still expect the SP to reach the falling wedge support over the next week or so. First target is still the 63p area but will monitor RSI and volume to judge a bottom. There might be room in the apex for a further bounce before further lows.

Despite my love of falling wedges I think it sensible to target the higher gap at 53.75/58 because this stock tends to push intraday to test lower levels, much the same as 64.50 became 61 recently. Might even get to 50 but IMO we are unlikley to see the lower gap unless fundamentals dictate. There will be quite a few stop losses placed in the 59/60 area to give it a final push and panic IMO.

To the upside above 73.75 we have quite strong resistance in the 77-78.50 area with the ma's combined with the top of the recent trading range. Above that the minuscule gap at 81.75 and then 90.

We are at a breakout point currently, so this is a possibility this week but my feeling is that there is too much opportunity to test the lows. Until this happens traders will not be satisfied and thus there is little chance of an end to the long down trend until that happens.

I do have a slight bearish bias , so make your own choices and GL with them.

F4T

Thanks WaveSurfer.
Appreciate your help as always

correct

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O0%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP
Just looking the gap numbers on this from way back in 2010
i would appreciate if someone can please double check the gaps, and the prices of the gaps are correct on my chart.
I use ADVFN!! lol

Regards,
trendfriend.

Yep, we still agree WS.

73.75 went at third test but it took some time. Not much interest with the pitiful volume of late. IMO volume will only come in the mid/low 60's as this is the new bottom marker. Only then is a trade in play.

i sense a quick slam coming similar to early august action, once 73 breaks ( enter into the "redZone", final flush) either retest of lows or lower low are coming...but it will also enter BTFD zone too.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...y%20_17%20Sept14.PNG

rgds WS

Nice stuff F4T, pretty much in agreement..... just need to monitor now

SP is once again approaching interesting areas. Inspired by WS and for fun I thought i'd try to extrapolate how it might move in the near term. I don't think it will go as low as WS's chart but the 50's are certainly in range. The move I demonstrate actually has a higher low before a move up.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...UCBeS7e5h5%2FZbQg%3D

So where are we currently? We have a trendline which forms part of a falling wedge that is holding the sp ever lower. We should see 75.50 finally act as resistance. Shadow trendline (turquoise) broken. MACD has rolled over with a negative tick. RSI has room to move before support (or resistance). 73.75 has been tested twice, so should fall at the next attempt.

My red trendline starts in 2009 and provides support in the 69/70 area close to a recent low, forming a nice area for a short term bounce. We then have a higher low in the low 60's (say 63) before a breakout of the wedge northwards. Should this (blue) support line be pierced to allow a double bottom at 61 we might then get a death hook which will give more power to the move higher.

An engulfing candlestick today would help things along.

I too do think that GKP could finally finish its long downtrend soon and certainly this year. Might be at 63, could be at 61 or even the open gap in the low 50's.

Let's see how the crystal ball fairs.
F4T

Hi KK,

Its a diagonal triangle that im looking at, some call it wedge...2 converging tl's and formation of waves within 3-3-3-3-3 (5 waves) overlapping. usually occurs during a strong downtrend ABC correction and potentially signalling and end of the trend in the ABC(maybe)...

With regards to your question of 3 shorter than 1 etc... well 3 can be be shorter than 1, 3 cannot be shortest wave as part of the impulsive waves which are 1,3 ,5.

The target of move is based in fib and currently while price remains with in parameters, i have no option but to consider the probabilities of this move, will it happen, we just have to monitor and assess.

In the meantime price has hit a range 64/54 p (esp if 118p got taken out)range projected many moons ago for potential completion of this correction, we are in that range now.. its been one hell of a down trend.


Regards,

WS

WS...

Just thinking, on your projected counts down within the green wedge, your projected wave 3 is way shorter than wave 1. 3 should always be longer than 1 so.... it should almost be where you have projected 5. Not sure how this can be. Are you using fibs or is it just a rough approximation?

Thanks in advance

heres the chart

finished with a nice hammer!

Long @ 77.50
SL is below 73.50

Not a Buy advice as GKP is far from an established uptrend

Its purely day trade
I will be in & out quickly
Take profit order is at 89

Will post a chart later

Hi WS,

can I ask you how you create your extrapolated lines, both the trendlines and projected line within.

Ta
F4T

lower targets remain in tact - which are 60/63p, 54/57p & 44/46p area. must break 73p 1st tho

psyurmh wrote:

Hi WS

Does this mean that we should be targeting the 55p area rather than the 61p previously mentioned by various people?

Thanks

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...%29_daily_04sept.png

Hi TF,

yes, I would say that for all intent and purpose the gap is closed. Didn't quite happen, but nearly is sometimes enough to satisfy the market.

Following chart is from a few days ago, after the close attempt, and shows the rise tagging my trendline. It also shows the neckline on a possible inv H&S, which I am not convinced about due to the probability of completion and the actual form which is irregular (discussed in earlier post).

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...sL+B2bdGbVumvQyuD/g=

My bet is still on a test of 61 but there is now a trendline in the way, so we will see. I also don't see the indices holding their current highs for long. This is more to do with over extended runs and dizzy heights than anything else.

Volume has been tailing off in recent days to pitiful amounts (during this apparent consolidation) so I don't put much weight on the lack of price action anyway. I think it is a lull before the sp gets moving again.

That's all.
F4T

This looks like it's going to close the gap.
If it can back above the 50 day, at around 84p, might to time to look at some short term upside options.
As it could go on a bit of run possibly.

The 50 day is the key for the upside imho.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...AfaM=&symbol=L%5EGKP
It could most likely be a gap close and back down.
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Hi Wavesurfer,

That's some great analysis....and the daily chart....hmmmmm. Hard not to think that count isn't right. Thanks for perspective.

Eddie, dunno - they are quite low res, maybe best to include a link to a hosting site, the quality is definitely better.

KK

I really wish the definition on the charts was better ...they are very hard to read very often... at least the detail and if one zooms in then it becomes nearly unreadable. Any ideas how to improve this anyone?

Hello Chartviewers !

Well it's been a while since i posted on chartsview, I mainly provide my thoughts on chat facility, but recently due to new job commitment have a had limited time...hopefully will be able to give more time on here and provide thoughts abt the markets in general, those that now me you know how love to dance and play the Indices and commodities..... anyway back GKP, well things are starting to look interesting

For me i cant get bullish (Doesn't mean there 's no value at these prices tho, points are points) on gkp until i see break abv 96/97 and then take out 118p with Force...until then lower targets remain which are 60/63p, 54p & 44/46p area.

looks to me price is starting coil in a triangle -see Daily as an example.

As the weekly and monthly are in control worth looking at these charts too... some notable divergence forming on those ( need confirmation), but not on the daily just yet...like to see a lower low in price with the rsi making a higher low, then with all 3 time-frames showing this, things may just start to get interesting.

Lots of good analysis by others on here, so not much else to add to that....

Daily:



Weekly:



Monthly:



Cheers and all the best WS

PS - remo & Ronnie conrgats on your new arrival...

Price is King !

Hey Food4Thought,

Sorry, yes - I'm trying to show too much historical info on chart - just trying to illustrate how I determined my downside target back end of January as well as what's potentially going on now. I agree the inv H&S is a little crooked, but as you say, the implications are the same, and though perfect symmetry would be nice, as you know markets aren't perfect....and no matter, the implications are the same. I've include a zoomed in chart of what's going on now just to clarify pattern and fibs as yes, you need 20/20 vision and a lot of squinting to see it properly.LOL!

Interesting you have a similar upside target as myself (116), so I take a little comfort in this as you know your stuff - I also agree if it can't close the gap quickly it will probably run out of steam. Not even thinking of 140p targets yet until the picture is clearer myself, and again as you say, as a trader - better trading elsewhere for the mo. I concur, obviously if it was to hit 61p as a double bottom, this would be a much more obvious and trade-able move!

Thanks for sharing your thoughts - always on a never ending learning curve so I welcome your feedback and input - Thankyou.

Keith,

had a look at your chart but it is a little small and hard to get all the detail.
Personally I like to see a more even H&S, the shoulders being less crooked (if I am interpreting your chart correctly), though the idea of failing to meet the low (head) to form the right shoulder would still attract a reverse action.

Your fib extensions to 116 is also very neat as I have had 116 as a (maximum medium term) top for a while now. I like 116 because it is proven and not too far away from the price action. I think we will get there, but not sure when. Not sure about the gap at 140 though.It might take an act of God to breach that.

I am surprised we haven't fallen below 75.50 given my previous comments on earlier posts. One might have expected it to do so rather quickly and consolidate below this new resistance. It is struggling to close the gap IMO. If it does we might see a quick reverse.

Anyway, a path is not so clear as it was so I will wait and trade elsewhere for the time being. 75.50 and 90 being points where I will review this again.

What you can be sure of with this one is that the SP will not run sideways for long. An inv H&S to 116 would be nice as would a double bottom at 61, the latter being the cleaner and more tradable move.

GL
F4T

Intersting debate, the fundamental investor vs the technical chart trader.
Who's right?? who's wrong??

Guess it's one of those where we don't have definite 100% clear cut answer, hence the debate??
After all no one cannot argue, Warren Buffet is not succesfull!

In my opinion (for what it's worth) you need at least the very basic TA skills to be able to invest succesfully in the market. No matter how strongly you believe in investing on fundametals, having some TA knowledge will not affect this, and be an added advantage.

For me, i'm in the TA camp, and i would think most of us on Chartsview, will understand the below quote and most likely agree with it.

This is a quote from the intro of the book, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Tenth Edition. By Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W.H.C. Bassetti (an excellent book, and a must read btw)

"The technical anaylst may go even further in his claim, he may offer to interpret the chart of a stock whose name he does not know, so long as the record of trading is accurate and covers a long enough term to enable him to study its market background and habits.
He may suggest he could trade with profit in a stock knowing only its ticker symbol, completely ignorant of the company, the industry, what it manufactures or sells, or how it is capatalized. Needless to say, such practice is not recommended, but if your market technician is really experienced at his busines, he could in theory do exactly as he claims.
Should the reader at this point,find the technical approach to trading or investing, as explained in the foregoing completely abhorent, perhaps he should close the book now".

Good weekend folks
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Hi SRB,
The answer to your question is - we could be anywhere.... Obviously I, like many others who are holding, hope this is the bottom, but we've all thought that many times and been disappointed. Time will tell is the only honest answer I'm afraid. I've rather given up with the importance of labeling as it only appears to generate argument and confusion. Instead I concentrate on fibs, fib extensions, and allied supports and resistances.
Sorry I can't be more helpful.

Diver

No worries Keith. Each to their own. You are right about the OIP but it was used to illustrate a point, not to be used literally. It's all about perception in this game..........

Will look at your TA later when I have more time.

GL
F4T

Hey, I'm new posting here and want to add if I can. Please don't take offence - With constant lower highs, we can keep counting those 5 waves down and ABC corrections on and on, trading the counts down short or going long on the corrective waves, but - at some point the trend will change - unless you think the company will go bankrupt right? I mean CEY - Egypt, even GPX in Syria - there's money to be made. To say 20bb to 630mm is a bit misleading because surely if you trade oil shares you know that only a percentage is recoverable,and I don't recall anyone saying 20bb was recoverable, though maybe I don't read iii enough! LOL! - I mean to think oip of a field is all recoverable...Not meaning to stoke an arguement,CENSOREDnow I sound like someone on iii(erm I just trade charts honest guv), but the facts are that the CPR is on a fraction of the field and the MNR especially Dr Hawarami is corrupt as fck! Basically Kurdistan owns Shaikan they are in charge here, I mean I've never seen a government post a letter to refute an article in the Times. What's that all about! - the MNR/KRG are not going to tell Baghdad, oh Shaikan has more potential than Rumaila...oh no, no no. Anyway Fib extensions from low 61p to swing high 89.75 to yesteday's low gives 161.8% extension at 116.77p - a double top to previous high spike. So if the 89.75p is wave 1 high, wave 3 could be a double top and a wave 5 could give us a higher high, coupled with a 'potential' inverse head and shoulders (right shoulder now forming) bullish reversal, this could well be it! Though people have been saying this since £4 odd so I see why this share should carry a health warning LOL! So F4T you're dead right to apply caution "where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying." RESPECT! So - erring on the side of caution - stay in cash, trade a break of neckline on volume if pattern completes, stop just below, add on backtest and jump out at double top, wait for pullback and see if it is a 3 with a 4 pullback or just correction waves to downtrend IMO.

Hi Learning and thanks for your thoughts and fundamental comments.

The beauty of TA is that it saves you reading, deciphering and cogitating all that fundamental stuff, a lot of which is nonsense. TA reads the mood of the market and that is all you need. All you need to know is if the market is bullish, bearish or neutral on the stock.

If I am trading a company I do read the company news and always have an understanding of it's position. It would be foolish not to, but particularly with small caps, much of it can be taken with a pinch of salt. I've been there and believe me, I have never come across such a badly run company as GKP and i have been involved in a good few small caps. I have never come across a company where so many ordinary people lose money but continue to believe the BS and then lose more money. It is worrying.

I am sorry to say that that is why it is such a good trading share, because if you make money it is probably a PI on iii that is losing it.

20B barrels to 630MM. Director voted out of the company by shareholders but still keeps his job and salary. No more meeds to be said.

TA is much simpler, quicker and safer. All it takes in a bit of study and the ability to follow some simple rules that are generally contra to normal human behavior/instinct. Remember, it is humans you are trying to beat.

GL
F4T

Hi Diver,

Where are we now with the wave count in your opinion.

SRB

The over-riding problems with IS in Kurdistan are obviously not something within the control of the BOD, but have undoubtedly had a major effect of the SP in recent months, and will continue to do so until such time as it is safe for foreign workers to return to the area.
From a TA viewpoint it is essential the recent low of 61 is not breached otherwise we are looking to 43 and, at prices as low as these, even with the IS situation, this has to be a lucrative TO target...
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png

Slow Eddie

You are absolutely correct, but I'm not talking long or even medium term, just 'the mood of the moment' as even if this is a P&D, the TA combined with positive vibes will help us to take some profits and God knows, some of the LTH's deserve to recover something!

I don't want this site to turn into a BB like iii or LSE as in my view the primary driver of GKP has become the TA but if the City wants to P&D it, it helps if we are reading the TA in alignment with them.

F4T has given us the benefit of his investment in TA and I just wanted to try and give something back. I could be completely misreading the signs but I think the City wants us back up over the next few days/weeks and I want to know whether to consider taking profits at 96/1.04/116 etc. In the short term GKP will behave as the City wants it to regardless of real fundamentals.

I enjoy your posts over on iii BTW - very balanced and down to earth.

One serious counter to that Learning on the fundamental side is the cashburn which means unless the money owed by the KRG is paid soon (and are they even able to...?) then GKP will hit more trouble soon. It already has a lot of debt at fairly onerous terms. Continuing production is good but how will the need for more money play out? Still very tricky to call which I think is reflected in both F4T and TF 's downbeat TA assessments.

Hi F4T

My first post here although I've been registered for some months. I followed your thoughts on Jackozy's site and thought you were quite balanced but you lean to the bear case. If you were ever bullish I would take that as a very good sign as your default was always bearish With GKP over the last couple of years this has been the best option but as you don't pay attention to Fundamentals I thought maybe I could help you out with a brief synopsis (in thanks for all the guidance you have unwittingly given me).

I think that GKP may have turned a corner - at least short term and we may be entering a positive period although it would not surprise me to see it all fizzle out! We are expecting the following bits of fundamental news:

1. The promise of director buys once out of the closed period (associated with the interims);
2. STEAM conference Weds/Thurs/Fri next week (in Istanbul so unlikely to be cancelled at late notice - both John Gerstenlaur and Simon Murray will be presenting);
3. Iraqi Government formation in 10 days time which we hope will result in a far better relationship between the Iraqi government and the KRG.

In addition to all this we seem to have brokers rating us anywhere from 1.04 to 1.54 and a variety of new posters on the boards telling us we are on the up as well as the Chevron rumours.

It could all count for nothing but the knowledge of this may assist interpretation of the runes.

Keep up the good work - it's really appreciated!

My oh riley!!
This stock should come with health warnings!

This looks to be making its way to the bottom supprt line imho.
The best way to trade this, is to stay away!!
hence way i was so cautious with this despite the rise last week.
This is one to side step, unless we break the overhead trendline, or hit the bottom support line imho.

if you do want to trdae this in between,i would to advice to wait and follow Food 4 Thought, he's da man, and he spots the early signs.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Ow%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Something to note is this gapped down, and its quite a big gap. So does not look good for the long side for now imho.
Regards,
Trendfriend

Nice price action today. Didn't know that fundamental news was due.

Support at 75/76 is important as also ma20. A close below this brings 61 very much into play.

The fact that support was penetrated AND that the open was below this support tells me that we definitely will fall and stay below this level and, given drift, the 60's is a certainty in time.

I'm with TF now. This is a short. If playing the long side, stay clear of this until we have had the opportunity to retest the lows. Watch volume and wait IMO.

There is nothing positive with this share except that fact that volatility makes it great for trading IF you are nimble.

All IMO
F4T

Hi F4T

We have dropped to the support at 75.5p but is the drop to 70.05p significant?

Richard,

personally I don't use the 5 sma's, so don't know how they perform/how widely they are used. 20sma is widely used so is usually effective.

Obviously the more users the more effective the indicator. I always run with the crowd as it is the crowd that drives the market.

F4T

Hi All

Can I just ask a quick question.

I am looking at another stock which is trading below the 5 SMA/DMA. Is this a strong resistance level or is it better to look at the monthly/20 SMA resistances?

The stock is SOLG - closed at 5.99p, 5 SMA/DMA is 6.29p and monthly resistance and 20 SMA/DMA is 6.53p

Hope you guys dont mind me asking this on here.

Thanks

Richard

Thought i'd look at the longer timeframes since it is my opinion that the current run up on the daily is done. If it isn't done, then some of the following can be disregarded.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Rpn8RZGcnZplc5n7k%3D

Firstly, the monthly shows the continuing downtrend clearly. Although the falling wedge has some daylight above on the chart, the RSI is at resistance. This is caused by positive divergence, also clear on money flow index. SP needs to beat 100 in September before downtrend can be tested again.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...V8%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Close up on the weekly shows us that we have retraced 50% of the fall from 116, a nice place to stall. The breakout from the falling wedge is still valid and in play. The breakout point upwards on my daily was at 75.50 and one can see that it is possible to retrace to that mark on the weekly and still maintain the wider breakout. This could happen next week (but not before) and form a nice backtest on the higher trendline, giving an opportunity for the next rise.

Note that we are at RSI resistance currently on weekly. A retrace to 75.50 might take this to the lower support line and further into the apex. A bounce here might then propel us through RSI resistnece next time resulting in a stronger rise next time round, closer to 100 maybe. This might happen in a week or two's time.

That is my current forward thinking of what might happen going forward. I will wait for 75.50 or a break of 90, being our support resistance levels currently, before acting.

Currently on the daily we had a bearish descending hawk pattern (a new one for me also!) followed by an engulfing pattern which should take SP to 80 and below.

GL
F4T

I'm not competing with you F4T. Not sure where you got that idea from
I've got no chance anyway. lol
Appreciate your thoughts as always.

good weekend.
ATB,
Trendfriend

Thank you F4T

I have actually made some cash and it is thanks to your analysis.

Thank you for your continued posts. Have a good weekend.

It has been a very good day TF, thanks. If you read my earlier posts I was expecting a retrace from todays highs and a close around the 85 mark with a bearish candlestick pattern. The move is overextended. It's all there. That is bearish.

If pushed and having seen today's action in full, we might see 75.50 again before 90 again, being a 50% retrace of the whole move. My reasons for this view. This rise overextended. Indices are at resistance, here and in US. We need a leg down and stocks likely to follow.

I post my views to help people if I can, not to compete.

GL All, and hope most made some cash on this this week.

F4T


Trendfriend wrote:

Trendfriend - win,win then eh! Agree for the time being that it'll stay within wedge. I'm expecting iv pullback to form a right shoulder then.....

Very Possible keith, like you say time will tell.

If it breaks out of the wedge, fill yer boots time it will break out at some point!
If it hits the bottom of the wedge, fill yer boots as well.

Most likely to stay in range now, within the wedge imho.

Lets wait and see.

Looks like it could be a long legged doji, as it's coming back up now....nail biting close. LOL!

If today's high was the high of this run - here are re-tracement fibs.

Trendfriend, don't you think wedge is bigger than that? I Don't think It'll be testing the bottom again. I'm hoping it'll break out...but then I'm a glass half full guy! LOL! Time will tell...

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...w78w=&symbol=L%5EGKP

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...v3AE=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Whats the next move here?
Bottom of the descending trendline?
I hope folks managed to close positions in time here.

You still bullish F4T?

good weekend folks
Regards,
Trendfriend