uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...oQ%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Hi All,

Great run up from 42/43 but it was an easy exit for me at 73.75 last week (one of the breakpoints on the fall).The extended run in such a short time and touching RSI resistance was more than enough. The loss of volume following the spike confirmed.

The rise didn't make 77.50 let alone the long term downtrend line (currently ~88). I expect this to drift downwards until we find out how much hot air is circling.

We should see the mid 50's at minimum in the near future IMO (66.8% fib) but it could bounce a little when it meets the rising short term trendline (red). The 50% retracement point is at 59/60.

I'll wait for 50p and see if we get there again. If we do i'll probably wait further ;o). It's all about patience with GKP, always has been.

GL
F4T

Edit:
Just read Koolkeith's note after posting.
I note now the shadow downtrend line as resistance to the rise (I use closing); this does make things a little more interesting. There have clearly been alot of bets placed on 13th Nov.

Perhaps we have just formed the "2" in a 1, 2, 3 low type breakout?
Looking to enter on the retest "3"

Hi Count,

Gotta agree that until that descending resistance of over 2 years is broken, this is technically still in a downtrend. As you say it came very close to a breakout - I'd personally like to see a break of that resistance followed by a break of previous high of 89.75p for a comfortable call of change in trend, but that's a big rise to miss out on. I guess the safest strategy would be to buy the inevitable backtest after a break of descending resistance if it happened, with a tight stop to avoid any fakeouts. What is encouraging from my chart set up is the fact this has had three closes above the 12day exponential average on the daily and is also sat above the various exponential 34 day moving averages which is set on opens and closes and median to create a 'tunnel'. From experience with this set up, when the blue 12 day crosses through the 34 day tunnel - we could see a powerful move up. It is soooo nearly ready to do so, but not guaranteed. If it does I'd expect to see it move up to the 80's but it's a questionable 'if' at the moment. I won't mention the forming of a potential inverse head and shoulders this time - too early

Daily:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/TE5JAvcv

Weekly:



clearer with link: screencast.com/t/01a0SelF

Food for thought - What's your thoughts on this as you have been spot on.

Thanks in advance and good luck all.

Hi Orsotoro,
No long term downtrend line from 465 wasn't broken yet but came close on 30 Oct with high of 76 imo. So we are still in downtrend.
I'd wait for F4T's update, he is usually spot on with his TA.
ATB

Totally see what you are saying Count, but was the downtrend broken by that first rise, in your opinion ?

Hi orsotoro, another interpretation is that we already just witnessed the 123 low complete.
Starting with the bottom 42.25, we have 1 = 57.75, 2 = 49.10.
screencast.com/t/N2T6AZY7jE

The set-up looks like this to me:

Low of 42.25, breakout of downtrend Wednesday with 64p finish, and then rise to point 1 at 76p yesterday. Now awaiting another low, obviously above 42.25, to confirm point 2. The buy-in point 3 will then be a break above 76p.

You may be right F4T you usually are but a new bit of news came in this morning stating the approval of the FDP for Akri-Bijeel field run by MOL that can also be seen as positive. So might run on to the 80's but will keep close eye.
As Jackozy once interestingly stated, its surprising how often facts seem to eventually follow the TA predictions and thus belatedly justify the rise.

Will post a chart with my thoughts over the weekend as busy this week.

That's enough for me. 73.75 is the next resistance after 61. Nice run but I expect a retrace. Fast rise often leads to a fast fall.
GL all
F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ug%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

If this can close above the 50 day ema @ 66p, it should go on to at least test the main trendline @ around 83p imho

Regards,
Trendfriend.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKP%281H%29.png

So many false dawns eh Lib. So, is this desperation on the part of private investors, or is someone 'on the inside' buying from a position of knowledge? Only time will tell I guess...

From a charting viewpoint, the RSI is certainly very strong at 79. The move up from 42.25 is now at 100%, having almost touched 127.20%, on the fib extension. If this is serious I feel it should exceed 161.80% and form a five-way move, dare I say finishing up around 85 before a pull-back. Ok, so that's a bit too presumptuous but this is GKP.... so anything could happen!

I hope so BasementGeek, as a holder, I sure hope so, it's just that we've been here before (took the liberty of using your chart to illustrate the bad luck of a GKP in the updated chart below):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/15745438/Trading/GKPCHART.png

I do hope that I'm wrong about this folly of a share, and maybe we'll get the sought after bounce.

Looking good for the coming weeks.

An update originally expected tomorrow has been delayed to Nov 13 because KRG requested it pending some significant news ...the sp is climbing fast and passed 60p as i write. if breaks 61 is still significant for chart?

Maybe a bit early to say?
Interesting RNS though IMHO, it's being bought, couple of weeks to wait, I'm hoping for another opportunity to dip my toe in.

Hi F4T

We've had a break of 55p. Are we looking at a buy signal? Have we had a 123 low?

Thanks

Some caution here. We have a potential short term H&S on the hourly. Neckline is at 50, so we need to stay above that tomorrow am. A break of 55 would give some confidence to the bulls.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...TXmU=&symbol=A%5EAPT

F4T

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png

I think we need a breach of 87 for a significant move up. As we have now hit support between 127.20% and the 161.80% ext of the move 259.00 > 126.38 > 240.65; and hit the 161.80% ext of the more recent move down from 240.65, it is not inconceivable this is now the bottom - but let's breach that 87 before getting over excited

Thanks Remo.

Would a break of 58p likely signal this?

The 123 low formation is not just a short term trade, it could signal a change of trend and become an early entry for a long term trade.

hi
The 2 has not yet formed yet....
The price has to go lower from current levels for that to form.
ill post a chart up when i see a potential 123 low formation
Earlgreyhot wrote:

even for medium term there are no signals..GKP is in bear mode and until you see signs of green shoot then you cant do medium term views on this....well medium term views currently are all bearish..

manfrombrussels wrote:

Is anyone optimistic on GKP long term from a pure TA angle?

Edit: I should elaborate, I know most here are looking for shorter term trades, Remos 123 low (if/when it happens will be a shoter term trade, F4T's (great posts thanks) bullish harami gives possible prices up to 117/118 on the monthly chart. I just wondered if anyone else looked medium term or longer with TA ad in particular GKP.

remo,
Thanks as ever for your views.
Hopefully not too dumb a question here, but of the 123 formation I can clearly see the '2' is last week's 42/3, but what is your '1' SP at the moment? For that are you going right back to the mid-80s high seen in mid-to-late August 14 and waiting for the SP to clear that level before going long??
Many thanks and best regards to all,
Mike

until we get a higher high,,ie,,,123 low formation then you cant say the down trend is over.
correction are all part of trading and by waiting for the 123 low formation to form you are cutting down the risk.Very effective way of not catching a falling knife.
If gkp respects the new resistances then thats your warning of possible lower prices to follow.It has to break above the resistances and create new supports.
Just keep it simple with gkp for the moment . You will know when the down trend is over.Higher highs will form. Until then be cautious.

The links aren't working for me unfortunately.

I guess we are now looking for confirmation of the 1-2-3 low? Hopefully we are at the end of the down trend.

Hi all,

in preparation for this week I have re-done all my charts since we now have a confirmed bullish harami on the daily. First resistance of 54.25 held nicely on Friday. My aim here is to show key price points on the way up assuming the rise continues. I won't go into supports since these have been discussed to death down to 10p. IMO general markets in Europe should remain bullish on Monday but there is still uncertainty whether this will continue or not. That is the caveat.

Monthly:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Os%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Month not finished so bear this in mind. I drew fibs from the last two swing highs, 116.75 and 240.
The price points are clear and confirmed by at least two indicators each, so I won't elaborate; 60/61, 88/89 and 117/118. 60/61 is also the breakout point from the falling wedge.
RSI at support and in the apex.

Weekly:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...hdQs=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Nice volume the past two weeks. This indicated a bottom was near or had been reached in the low 40's.
Bullish divergence on MACD and RSI.
Breakout point from falling wedge at 60/61 is a convergence of three trendlines, so this area is strong resistance.
20week sma at 78.50.

Daily:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...He88=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Breakout point from falling wedge is 60/61.
20 sma is at 59
Larger falling wedge (red) crosses 89/90 area towards the end of October.

That's all on this.
F4T

Impressive call again F4T.

Thank you for posting your thoughts and well done.

Let's see what happens over the next week or two. IMO we are at a good entry point, but it is always risky trying to call a bottom before a reversal is confirmed, short term or otherwise. 42/43 gives 16/19% on a retest of 50 - that is my maths. A good return for a little patience.

Of course if you stay out then there is no risk of losing capital, and that is always a good philosophy in turbulent times.

I am not suggesting others follow.

GL all.
F4T

This looks like its getting ready to drop lower so careful

its hanging around 43 area ...so risky to go long

Wait to clear, and close above 48p.

Below 48p, 17p possible.

Below 48p, look for 17-13p range IMHO, DYOR.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

I shall be joining you.

GL

Pretty nice volume yesterday. It's been a long drop form 89 but at last I think it's time to buy, for me anyway.

GL
F4T

Thats where the original move higher started from as well.
To be ohnest the longer gkp hangs around this area the more likely it will go lower so you have to be careful when a share price hovers near a strong support for a few days.I dont go long on a first attempt if the price hovers near support area. I only go long on a first attempt basis if the price hits a strong support area from a distance. Not when its only 5 points away.

SE,
Look at that part of Remo's chart that dates back between 2004 and July 07 - 43 is the line off which the SP bounced several times during that period of time. Historic I know, but I'm pretty sure that's where the 43 support comes from.
Cheers,
Mike

Sorry to be dense Remo but could I ask why there is strong support at 43...

Hi mark
yep spot on mate..
The level with the strong support is 43
ive shown a monthly chart to see it better..


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thoct2014a.png

Hi Remo,
I have a support line at 46.15p from 2005 which seems to be holding at the moment. Could you please check with your charts as I am using Prorealtime.

Thanks,

Mark

GKP has to finish above 54 before you can say the worst is over. Even then its not guaranteed.
If 54 is respected ,ie,, holds as resistance then further falls will come. So first the share price must break above 54 and finish the day above it.Even then you dont buy it as you need higher highs first to signal a change in the trend early.Basically a 123 low .
short termers can still trade this share . Long termers not yet.
currently bullish engulfing pattern on gkp but this has to come at support so not the real deal for me.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp13thoct2014.png

As to a bottom, it's far too early to call. Let's see where we end up with on volume and price. Volume promising so far.

First resistance is more likely to be 54.25 but if we were wanting to catch a decent rise as it withers, I have a trendline in the 59 area. 54.25 is safer though. However high the bounce is today IMO we will definitely see 50/low 50's again, so it makes for good trading.

Hi F4T

Interesting action this morning.

Do you think we have reached the bottom? Resistance at 53.75p?

Thanks

Hi All,

some good comments here today.

Have had a good look at the charts again here and things don't look good at all. There are very few positives here or in the markets in general, which are broken - the US particularly and this drives the other markets.

The negatives are well documented on the previous posts but we must never give up on the charts. There will be a bottom as stocks cannot keep falling forever (aside from serial share re-denominations lol!). They just go out of business and companies with assets don't do that. They are sold off cheap. I am just putting some perspective here.

Technical analysis tells us what market participants are doing and this often gives us an indication as to what might happen going forward. That is why we are on this website, to share those views.

So what do the charts show us?

The daily: pretty much all negative until the well documented supports below 40,37,18.50. RSI support broken / all trendlines broken. The only small positives are the volume friday (11MM) and some medium term MACD divergence from April.

The weekly: Weekly always trumps the daily. I attach a chart for this one as it none have been posted for this time frame yet.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...UQ%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Chart also looks terrible, but with a couple of positive elements. The MACD divergence remains plus some marginal RSI divergence. Also RSI is at trendline support. There are no gaps on the weekly, so support below is at 37 (per Remo) and 21.50 (May 09). Weekly volume also not bad for last week.

The Monthly: Monthly always trumps the weekly. Remember though that the month has only just started, so we are assuming that everything stays the same until 30/10/14. But I will post it anyway for discussion purposes.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4o%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Similar to the weekly, in that chart looks terrible but RSI (currently) at support. Minor divergence on histogram only.

My point is that we never abandon the charts even in market turmoil as sometimes it is all we have. After the past 6 years we are now experts in turmoil


So, from all the charts, on the higher timeframes the main support trendline has been broken but the RSI is at support. RSI generally leads price, i.e. breaks first. There is also some divergence that has been there for a while.

My key indicators are always price, volume and RSI. I look for all 3 to agree before acting.
Volume has been poor recently on the fall. I have documented this well on this website. Fridays volume on the daily wasn't bad (11MM) but once again not enough on it's own to indicate to me a possible bottom.

I will be watching volume carefully tomorrow am when I expect GKP to set a new low (given US market activity Friday and an expected follow through in Asia). A candle with a longish tail and maybe a days volume of 10-15MM might tempt me, but otherwise I will remain in cash.

My overriding point is that general markets always turn as this one will and a turning tide raises all boats. The question is when will it turn?

In the above I have scratched around for some positives in a sea of negatives so readers please take that on board.

F4T

Sound advice remo and definitely so if my GKP experience is anything to go by….

First bought a few in Feb 12 - just a 1000 at 392…… all on the strength of a recommendation from a colleague (and I had a bit too much time on my hands and some spare funds).

Then I found the iii BB….. and got well and truly sucked in to the blatant jam-tomorrow get-rich-quick no-brainer once in a lifetime opportunity bang-gone-tomorrow-for-$63/share etc.etc. so as the SP came down I kept averaging down. One way or another I'm ashamed to admit that I ended up with 25K at 212 av. I held and held. (I often think back to the Court Case verdict day when I was a few grand in front and so rue not selling and taking a modest profit!)

Thing is, after a certain point (once a few grand down), one can't face the prospect of crystallising a large paper loss as so doing also crystallises one's own perceived failure in being such a mug in the first place.

Of course it certainly doesn't help that the company has one way or another overseen and even instigated (by either action or omission) its own SP destruction.

I like so many LTHrs reached the point where I thought a) if I get out of this it's nailed on that the big shock and awe rns is bound to appear with the share going back to 450+ and I'll have rounded all of my investment failures off with the last and biggest i.e. capitulating at the bottom and losing out on the big leg back up and b) thinking - somewhat ludicrously - well that's it it's sh!t or bust in it until the end balls of steel required and such.

Eventually the idea of capital protection took precedence and I sold out between 112 and 75 (last 5K). I'm comfortable enough given my modest lifestyle requirements but losing that money (thankfully not money I needed/need) has really stung.

So to anyone reading this who is relatively new to investing?

1. Only play with what you can comfortably afford to lose.
2. DO NOT fall in love with a share and get sucked into BB hype/ramping - DYOR (far harder and dryer work than basing your investing decisions on a BB, but ESSENTIAL).
3. Stay flexible don't get stuck in one mindset e.g. 'this is nailed on to make me rich' or such.
4. DON'T GET GREEDY: TAKE A MODEST PROFIT WHEN IT'S THERE!
4. Spread your portfolio risk over a number of holdings/stocks.
5. Be wary of AIM in particular: it's little more than a casino where the odds are heavily in favour of the house not some upstart like me sat in front of a PC thinking easy money is to be made! The only 'easy' money to be made is by Mr Market and company BoDs. Just look at a GKP chart this last few years: looks like someone giving you the big finger right? Same pattern for so many AIM oilers such as BLVN, XEL etc.
6. DYOR. If going long, DYOR. If trading based on TA DYOR.
7. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! Try and be coldly analytical rather than falling victim to fear and greed.
8. Avoid trying to catch the bottom of a SP clearly in downward trend: look for a 1-2-3 IN instead (as advocated so often here).

Anyway, that's enough non-TA ramblings from me. If it makes just ONE newish investor out there think more carefully about what they're doing, then it was worth my time writing it (as well as being somewhat cathartic for me!)

Best to all,

Earl.

Nice post Remo.

I must say I really appreciate everyones comments on here, especially you and F4T.

I am an amateur trader and I'm looking to learn.

Its sad to see gkp going so low as i know a lot of people are holding this from the highs.Whats happened to gkp happens all the time with shares and gone are the days of long term investments in single companies.This is the reason why im a short term trader as ive seen this time and time again.Ive been trading for nearly 25 years now and have seen the good times and the bad and have seen so many good companies go down just like gkp has and then some of them went straight back up so this can also happen, but every time the technicals shows the way first with a simple 123 low breakout.
GKP is currently a sell with regards to technicals and if this did come back to 54 area then that would be a good area to short this on a first attempt basis., but if your looking to go long then its just a matter of waiting for a 123 low signal.Until then just stand a side.
If the news changes in iraq then this could go back up but thats the only thing that can help gkp.
So bottom line ,,,Dont keep buying thinking that its hit the low as thats the biggest mistake people make with regards to trading. Wait for a true buy signal to top up your losing position.

I dont hold any shares in gkp but once i do ill let you guys know first but im sure a lot of you will know before me as you guys do know what i look for.
good luck guys and girls and i hope this changes soon.

Bang on the Money Remo, this is dangerous.
This has no respect for any technicals at all, you have a falling knifes, this has to be ultimate of falling knifes imho!

This could bounce at any time to be fair, its certianly due one, the RSI is coming to oversold level.
Can see from your chart, 37p could be the next stop.
It finished on the low of the day, those candles give no hope or optimism at all, its pretty nasty stuff imo.
If it breaks below 37p, I think its possible this could hit the next gap 13.5p/18p.
below this support is at 11p.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...T5gQ=&symbol=L%5EGKP

This chart how every support has been left behind.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...3D&symbol=DOWI%3ADJI

Its sad to be talking of these low numbers with GKP, this had so much potential.
Lets see how this goes next week, it has a mind of its own thats for sure.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Thanks Remo. If I was a GKP pioneer I would certainly have remembered that one lol. Looks interesting though, wouldn't you agree? That's nearly a 50% retrace from the last swing high! Great trading for the shorters.

The gap support held for the first attempt but it stayed near there which is a warning sign as well. True supports would bounce hard on first attempts and if they dont then there is a chance of it failing.Thats why the 123 low method is so great as it will stop you from entering a falling knife.
37p is the next real strong support for gkp , This would be the first attempt basis entry only and for the short term.
The best way to find a bottom is via a 123 low signal.Until then stay out of gkp if your new to trading.


The chart below should be enough for you to work out why 37 is the next support level.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thoct2014.png