redchilly

Yep, yep, yep, yep snap.




screencast.com/t/WGQKO5LZhfl

P.S what the heck is that hosting site you're using, full of junk and ads

GKP is in Uptrend for me

3 HH and HL on daily
Backtest of rising TL today
Todays candle making a HH & HL

tinypic.com/r/2ltimat/8

TL break & close above on weekly
Rising trend on the weekly

tinypic.com/r/16gact5/8

Long today on break of 76.75
SL below yesterdays candle and rising trendline - below 65.50

Target
1. 89.75 previous high
2. 116.75

Just for interest - If you plot descending line from wicks of historic high and next high wick of 240p (court case high), it looks like yesterday was a backtest of breakout to descending resistance. Depends where you plot the line, but there are way more touches to the line when done this way, and therefore for me adds more significance to it. I know it's subjective but....just sayin'




screencast.com/t/nyNtzX1wWUg

Looking good here!!!!

Take out 89,75p and it's game on - Monday?

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FE%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Downtrend still intact.
Close above 75 TODAY is key for bulls. Next upside resistance at 81, then 85, 89.75.
Break of trendline / SMA's at 64 key for bears. Next downside support at 59 then 50, 42.25.

Have a nice weekend all.
F4T

85p the key level... some way from there atm, but making progress, so lets see.

If it can break 85p, will race to 100p area very quickly imho.

Regards,
Trendfriend

Things going to plan here. Bounced off ascending trendline.

screencast.com/t/ZXtnpTo5IulH

GLA

Nice call KK. Well, a bit of everything this morning. Island reversed as you noted it might, but I was glad to see it form anyway as it looked likely from my analysis.
Key for bulls is that the downside gap closed. If this had stayed open it would have proven very stubborn on the next rise, as we have seen with the other upside gaps.
I fully expect this to drift now down to my targets as interest wanes but the downside gap close opens up both ways as being possible. I expect indices to have one more dip before a rise into year end. It this happens it should give stocks some impetus.

Will post again when we meet another crossroad.

GL
F4T

...Actually, not too disimilar to Diver's chart.

screencast.com/t/F79ilHjSUVRc

Laters.

F4T - No problem - Just didn't want holders getting scared when I know such a pattern can reverse quickly as it has already. As you said, the time to buy was below 50p. Favouring my first scenario now, with the EW count.

GLA

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png

A possible scenario.....

Thanks for the info on island reversals KK. Interesting as in my experience they have always been effective.
If you strip out all the emotion and positive bias it is clear that this is over bought and extended. 100% in a month, asset value, crude prices, war and reversal patterns! The time to buy was below 50, not after such a rise. We will see very soon.

F4T - Just for a bit of balance here, According to Bulkowski, "the Island top or bottom has the worst performance rank of ANY chart pattern - Dead Last - regardless of the breakout direction."

thepatternsite.com/islandrev.html

So I wouldn't put tooooo much emphasis on that if it gaps down - only to reverse, as this pattern frequently does - hence the bad performance rate.

I can see a bull case and bear case here, for an exercise the other evening I drew some upward channels on the chart just to see what we might be looking at if the trend change is confirmed at some point. It's quite enlightening the interaction of wicks and open and closes with the trendline channels. Guess where it closed today? Bang on the bottom of the channel trendline. The target at top of channel tomorrow - the same as Trendfriend's bull flag target £1.....



screencast.com/t/UmdzDj6jT

Close call tomorrow, too many mixed signals, I can see the case for one last leg up adjusting EW count and upward channel support, and can see the bear case for a pullback as I've mentioned below....tomorrow will tell.

GLA

Food,i cannot seem to find the 'No Thank You' button but when i do,i shall be pressing it.

one more leg to the upside to come here imho. sideways in a range building strength atm, small pullbacks are good, and healthy in a up move.

Clear bull flag formation, target around the 100p. (have you heard anyone else tell you that??)
Be flexible around the mid 90's (200 day ema), if we get there, lol!

One the of the best flag formations i've seen in a while imo.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...%3D&symbol=LSE%3AGKP

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...%3D&symbol=LSE%3AGKP

Whichever way it goes, its nice the see all the different views.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

P.S despite all the apparent doom and gloom, this is still holding and above the RSI support from mid Oct!!

F4T:

"Today close somewhere near the top of the gap."

'Tick.'

For a bit of fun, here's what I would like to see over the next day or so.

Today close somewhere near the top of the gap.
Gap down tomorrow at open (open below 75p) and then a further sell off.
That would leave an island top which spells doom. We don't see island tops or bottoms very often, so if it happens it will be special and they are usually quite powerful.

I don't bet on news btw.

F4T

PS: Bearish Harami looks like becoming a three inside down reversal pattern. Looks promising for the bears.

Gap, ema50 and the bottom of the channel lining up nicely for tomorrow am



www.screencast.com/t/s7CYTCvijAf0

Look out for a breakout, and short term btfd...

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...EOaA=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Hi KK,

no change in my thinking from my last post. There wasn't much trading over 83 the other day, so that held for me.
I expect a retrace of at least 50% of the rise, so minimum to 64 which is also the 50SMA and probabaly to the 20SMA at 59/60. I am not a follower of EWT (but like to see it), so your wave count looks good to me.

I would like to see 50 tested again, but that is just me.

I do think that the bottom is in though.

Bearish harami yesterday gives you the hint of what's to come.

GL
F4T

F4T - What you thinking?

Thanks in advance!

F4T - Cautiously bullish, there seems a clear count up and maybe now it's due a correction for wave 2... But that's only if the count down is right and the bottom is in. So could be the classic case of sell before news, as it could well be pretty much priced in after the 100% rise. I'm guessing something like this....though maybe the count could be wrong?! Dunno. Need to see tomorrow's price action as I'm sure it will be telling - ready for the 13th.






screencast.com/t/F79ilHjSUVRc

P.S - I can't mention the reversal pattern.

I feel more like a koala with a nose ring

I see that all the GKP bears are now bulls!

My fib chart......


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...td%20%28daily%29.png
(click on the chart or the link for an expanded view)

............. where it looks like £1 will be the first significant number.

is a change gonna come? getting close to 'the day' - we'll just have to wait and see!

Not looked at any upward channels on this for so long, so used to the downtrend trend - but as the short term trend has been up, I thought I'd plot some upward channels for a change to see where we might be headed, just as an alternative way of looking at things, and replicating channels. It is quite enlightening to see how the candles have reacted with touches and opens/closes of trend lines, especially how the gap up from the morning can be interpreted. So if the bottom is in, (nice 100% rise for anyone buying the bottom and selling at the top so far) is this where to look for support and resistance? Maybe too early to call until we break above 89.75p, but it is within grasp. Also some other levels to look at...

screencast.com/t/wM5iDNwWR

wassup folks... work needed still , however things are starting to look good... measured moved target on this run up i expect at least a test of 100/102p... if gkp can get abv n hold 85/85.5p... short term 71/68 must hold on a pullback

will post up charts later and some thoughts.......

BTW - nice analysis on here.. keep it up !

regards,

WS

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Tk%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xTkQ=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Gap up again tomorrow??

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Thanks F4T,

Funnily enough I have 82.75p as resistance on my tunnel set-up. It is also in the same area as gap resistance from 27th Aug - 82.5p I think. With all the excitement on the boards though, there is a chance it could just spike through towards 100%fib extension 92/93p area which is also around the 200 exponential and simple moving average on the daily and top of my tunnel, then settle around 82p/83p area. I know that's not what you're expecting but IF it did, it would certainly be something to get excited about as you say. But being GKP, I am not counting my chickens until I see what happens in the 82/83p area. Interesting few days ahead.

screencast.com/t/U07eDb0f

GLA

Very much appreciated. Thanks again.

Hi All,

a quick summary:

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...opow=&symbol=A%5EAPT

We broke out on the monthly last month. Trendline resistance in the 83 area to break downtrend.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Hs%3D&symbol=A%5EAPT

Weekly is approaching/close to RSI resistance. MACD and RSI divergence playing out. Fridays close was at the 20wkSMA. Downtrend resistance in the 89-91 area for the week coming. This is also the last swing high. Hanging man type reversal pattern. Weekly looks like the rise is pretty much done.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...0ARw=&symbol=A%5EAPT

Daily had an RSI breakout Friday. Horizontal resistance at 76. SP has exceeded 61.8% retracement of fall from 89/90 which is promising. Also closed at high. Trendline resistance in the 83 area.

So, from a TA perspective, monthly has resistance at 83 as does the daily. Weekly looks like the rise may be done/will stall. Daily looks pretty good but resistances at 76 and 83 not far away.

From a non TA point of view, the exciting news seems to be out and GKP always sells on news. Presumably most of the 75MM will go to Genel and DNO, but it is encouraging?

If is breaks 83 there may be reason to get excited but for me 89/90 is the key level to get excited about. I don't expect that to be broken any time soon. If I were to guess based on TA, my money would be on a spike to 80, 83 max tomorrow/this week followed by the inevitable retrace.

GL
F4T

Remo, F4T,

I'm really interested to hear your views on the recent price action. I'm looking for a position to go long. Do you think we've had the 123?

Thanks

Sorry chart links were not in previous post

Agree KK,
On my daily, today's close is just nosing over the LT downtrend line (but I guess there is interpretive error on where we draw out lines here, as illustrated by TF's chart in my case I have included the wicks), my weekly is just touching LT trend line.
Interesting days ahead early next week, it will either pull back or break on through.
(RSI on my daily has also just nosed out too from downtrend line)
Daily
screencast.com/t/aBruy1bTn
close up
screencast.com/t/9eGvOu92BGo

weekly
screencast.com/t/COUTKH3Qw9p8

Thanks KK; obviously my PRT hadn't updated at the time of posting. Have a good weekend folks.

Agree KK,
On my daily, today's close is just nosing over the LT downtrend line (but I guess there is interpretive error on where we draw out lines here, as illustrated by TF's chart in my case I have included the wicks), my weekly is just touching LT trend line.
Interesting days ahead early next week, it will either pull back or break on through.
(RSI on my daily has also just nosed out too from downtrend line)

Diver - closing price was 75p!

Hi Lib,

Sadly have no access to Chat these days so things are a little limited.

There was a good report from the KRG to say they had sold $3 billion since January and would be making an initial payment of $75 million to producers today. This followed a report yesterday saying output was approaching 300,000 barrels a day. So, as long as the rebels can be held at bay, there is hope.

A close of 73.00 fits the bill nicely

Trendfriend

Using the touches from the wicks, I've got this as a breakout on daily and weekly. I obviously wanna see what the action is like next week, but that bullish crossover on my chart setup that I posted earlier in the week indicates more to come for me.

Charts:


Zoomed out daily
screencast.com/t/JgPk8XdxJ6G

Zoomed in daily
screencast.com/t/F6u1Ey9u

Zoomed out weekly
screencast.com/t/gZ3Eq3wZgId

Zoomed in weekly
screencast.com/t/QnZl2AUQ

GLA
Have a great weekend!

Who needs charts, with bones like that KoolKeith.

This is looking good!

Weekly long term, getting close to the trendline.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Close up, nice hammer on the weelky!
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Look out for a 1,2, 3 low, @ 76.25, so not far off now, its shown here in the daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Next week is important here, but looking good imho.
the levels to beat, imho, 76.25, 82p (trendline, falling daily), if it can get above the mid 80' i think it will really get boosted!
Good weekend, and ATB folks,
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Dum de dum, dum de dum.....Something big happened today,

Could feel it in my bones!

diver993 wrote:
You're We're welcome by the looks of things Diver


Hope you're well matey, and always glad to read your take on the markets!

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKP%281H%29.png

A close above 68.10 would be very much appreciated, thank you

OK it's not T.A but alot of holders have been waiting for this. MOL Results -
HERE WE GO!

molgroup.info/images/qt/2014_Q3_Flash_Report_ENG_FINAL.pdf

"This was a strong quarter for MOL with lots of good news. As forecasted, Upstream production reverted to growth and we see significant upside potential in the coming quarters as well. A major breakthrough supporting this assumption is the official approval of the Akr-Bijeel Block Field Development Plan. As far as Downstream is concerned, I’m glad to say that MOL achieved ONE OF IT'S BEST EVER QUARTERLY RESULTS" This is not only the reflection of a seasonally better environment but also clearly demonstrates our successes in continuous efficiency improvements."

In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq:
In the Akri-Bijeel block the accelerated drilling program me continued with 4 drilling rigs and 1workover rig.
(1) A key milestone has been passed as the Field Development Plan (FDP) was officially approved by the ManCom and signed by the Minister of Natural Resources, allowing 2P reserves to be booked for 2014.
(2) Around the Bijell discovery Bijell-2 and Bijell-6 wells achieved total depth(B-2 TD 5,423m Triassic, andB-6TD4,300m Jurassic). The well test program me commenced and initial test results are promising, the latterwill be finished through the year. - end.

The Triassic zone
will be tested at Bijell - 2 with further upside potential. Testing of Bijell - 4 is expected to start in Q4.
Tie-in of aforementioned wells to Bijell-1 ExtendedWell Test (EWT) facility and Bijell-
4 Early Production Facility (EPF) is expected during Q1 and Q2 2015.
(3) The first appraisal well around the Bakrman discovery (Bakrman-2) was spudded in April and reached 4,000m in the middle of October. The drilling is planned to be finished in Q4 while the test program will start with the same rig thereafter. It is alsoexpected to be tied in to a EWT facility in H1 2015 and the initial works started for the related rental facility.
(4) Production from the Bijell - 1 EWT facility is due to start with 2,300 mboepd. Debottleneckingis under way to mitigate a possible higher gas-to-oil ratio,in addition,afterthe tie in of aforementioned wells a block production of 10 mboepd is targeted in the short term and increase further the production in line with the FDP during 2015.

In Shaikan block gross production volume is above 23 mboepd inthe two installed facilities. Domestic
revenues are realized on a monthly basis.
Export revenues are paid periodically; the outstanding receivables are reported to MNR. Gross production is expected to be at around 40 mboepd by the end of 2014 after the expected tie-in of the SH-7,-8,-10 wells. SH-11 will be drilled in H1 2015.

...Anyway, I think it's gonna be a tease. I am tired, and as this is such a bugga - I have a feeling this will close on the 12th at 71.5p right on fib and descending resistance. No clues given! Ha,ha. I'm not looking at lower lows until after I see what happens on the 13th, and tomorrow with MOL 'cos if this pops it's gonna go crazy imo. Thought: Unless it pops before and comes down for backtest on 13th - hmmm, lots to think about.....



I think MOL interim's tomorrow will give a clue and, I'll look at downward projection then if its not good - as for now it looks bullish. There is clear divergence on chaos oscillator which helps define wave counts too and picking each wave out, 3 being significant. Also the beginning of bullish crossover of 12 day exponential m.a. and 34 day tunnel for me is very promising. I just have a feeling crunch time is gonna come and this is on a coiled spring. I could be completely wrong but it seems to me a perfect storm is brewing. If the 13th is a bloodbath, I will adjust targets accordingly and they won't be pretty.



Divergence on weekly too, plus above 12 day exponential m.a. too.




Not much more to add as I'm tired and am thinking only one way right now, maybe better with a fresh head. LOL!

Hi Diver,

Snap with the upward extension fibs - I've only got end of day for pro realtime and did this before closing candle appeared (takes 20 mins after the bell) - just having a proper look now. Been out with the kids for bonfire night.


screencast.com/t/BWMbvWGYotD

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPhourly.png
This 1H chart completed a 3-way move from the low at 42.50 to 75.60 and then retraced 50% to 58.50. It is now pushing toward the 68.10 level, which it needs to break to continue the upward move started this morning and is illustrated by the green percentages.
The alternate is a breach of 58.50 and a move lower illustrated by the red percentages.
Personally I favour the green route due to strength of the RSI, but that is quite tenuous and tomorrows trading will tell all.

F4T "but it could bounce a little when it meets the rising short term trendline (red). The 50% retracement point is at 59/60."

Bloody good call again mate. I thought exactly the same as not only 50% fib but also bottom of the 34 day tunnel on my chart set up, add that with the trendline you had from bottom spike and closes = 3 reasons for bounce for me.

This is getting interesting now...hmmm! Post a chart later.

GLA

54p, should be good support here, if it gets there.
I think its the best place to go long, as two supports at 54p.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wo%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend.

That's still an exceptional return Richard. Well done yourself.

Very well done with the trade F4T.

I got cold feet around the mid 50s after entering low 40s.

I wish I had been more patient. Hopefully another opportunity to come.