Hi Diver,

I use fibs as follows:
- 23.6%, 38.2% & 50% retrace = normal retraces as trend/move continues. The shallower the retrace, the stronger the trend.
- between 50% and 61.8% retrace = trend/move in danger of failing/reversing
- more than 61.8% = likely/high risk of 100% retrace of move. Think of the mountain climber! 61.8% is the last point of no return.

I believe that the above is usual for technicians.

I agree with your other points.

Cheers
F4T

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

A fairly standard expectation for a retrace is between the 50 - 61.8% levels; that said it would be normal to expect a retrace to a support in that area - and so we get 57. Of course, there is nothing set in stone and the sp certainly doesn't have to stop there. Obviously, if the 48 fails the downtrend continues and things are really bleak....

Hi SE,
you can have a penetration of trendlines intra day but the close is the most important point, so a rise above it to 70 is not a break. Also, a close above can also fail.

I gave a high of 83 on the move up from 42 and my view has not changed. It made 85 so it was a good call. Above that 89.50 is strong resistance, so we now have both 85 and 89.50 as resistance within a few ticks so a break through will need a lot of strength. Where will that come from?

You have to always have an eye on fundamentals whatever the charts say. If you trade long or invest, there has to be fundamental value in the stock or people won;t buy it. If you trade short there needs to be an inherent weakness in the stock to support that stance.

I have said it before and will so again; Firstly, the CPR (at $100+ oil) gave an asset value of 68p. Forget all the bn's OIP BS that went before. It is irrelevant to analysts and the city. Until the reserve report changes then that is the benchmark for the stock no matter how much they produce. Oil is now heading for $40, so the DCF value will be less on a lower forward oil curve.
Also, GKP has a high finding cost and (i think) a high opex/bbl number, so what is their b/e? This is what the analysts will be looking for when the annual report comes out. The RNS re: power/fuel was all about making the market believe that their costs are low. I don;t believe it. Heavy oil, sulpur, trucking costs, security, above average salaries. It all points to high opex.
If opex/bbl is lower than anticipated, expect a rise but not above the resistances in the 80's. If opex/bbl is high IMO this will crash as oil is set to stay low at least until the summer.

The annual report will be interesting and a challenge for the auditors given the management of this company.

Remember, 57 is the 61.8% fib and this was tested today. After that 48.50 is crucial. We have had three lower highs and three lower lows since 85. This is a short term downtrend in addition to the long term one.

My advice is wait for the annual report and react to that.

GL
F4T



Slow Eddie wrote:

For real strength to come back to GKP this has to break above 85p. This is the most important level currently as the 123 low breakout point and the 200EMA is at the same spot. 2 levels of resistances together so strong resistance. A break above this level should be powerful and signal a change in trend.
Early entry could be a break above 71 but with tight stops as this area is roughly where the main down trend line is(69), well below this but best to go above the strong resistance for entry.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp6thjan2015.png

Resistance..69.75(trendline),,,,71,,,85(200ema and 123 low)
support....50.5(trendline),,,,48.5,,42.5(very strong support)

Was just wondering F4T if the strong downtrend line you have in blue is broken by going above to 70 or more on reasonably strong move would that mean the downtrend is then broken? And a new trend forming?
And can I also ask if your doubts about it going above high 80's ( to which I listen with great attention) are chart based or based on what you mentioned about fundamental values.
I do find it interesting the relation or non relation with fundamental values as I believe most chartists discount them entirely.

Remo,

My apologies re: changing the software - I was logged on with I.E. instead of my usual Chrome, hence the difference. I.E is weird! For any of you guys posting charts, don't use I.E. as it will force the links to the bottom right-hand corner of your browser and not expand them as you would like.
Happy New Year Chartsview!

Ive not changed any setting on my software???
It must be your browser or your end as every thing still looks the same on my computers.
Happy New yeardiver993 wrote:

Thanks for that F4T

..and thank you for taking time to post your thoughts over the Christmas period. I wasn't gonna post myself but as you made the effort..... I thought I'd have a little look from a different perspective.

What I do notice is a symmetrical triangle on the chart - my chart's a bit slap dash, but it's identified by black dashed lines (yup - slap dash! ha, ha!) I've copied each converging line and plopped them roughly to make parallel channels to roughly see upside/downside targets and they do tie in with the fibs somewhat. The thing is, it's tough to call direction as it's slap bang in the middle of range for me at the moment. Also it's not the most reliable pattern until it breaks either way. Though if it does break to the downside, it's usually decisive, so the 50p and a co-ordinated RNS (LOL - very true) would be the important downside area for a bounce, and also there is more room to move upwards to the 76p area without a breakout.





From an Elliot wave perspective - as long as it doesn't breach the 42.25p low this can still be the wave 2 pullback, if it does.....'twas all just a correction to prevailing downtrend.
However a bounce above 48.5p if it has peaked, may identify a minor i and ii wave before iii of the 3 if that makes sense?!

I can't see a lower low though, as I reckon oil is around it's lows now and it's correction should be up taking the sector up for a ride.(hopefully!) But this is GKP, so never say never, just watch those targets I'd say. What the hell 76p first, then a pullback! Ha, ha, Happy to be wrong

Here's a bit of info on symmetrical triangles for anyone not familiar.
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart...riangle_continuation

Happy new year all. Back in the New Year.

Hi All,

looked at this again but no change in view. SP still held by same downtrend line. Top value still in high 80's which is a must sell if it gets there for holders.

Expect this to retrace from current level, key areas being 60.25, then 57 (61.8% fib). After that 48.50 and then 42.25. 57 is important because if that goes then we will see 40's.

IMO, per my previous post, we would have seen 42.25 (or at minimum the uptrend line at 44.50/45) on the last fall if it wasn't for that suspect and timely RNS. You have to say that GKP play the RNS game well and people buy in every time. The financials will bear out the opex questions as those are audited. Expect another RNS when we break 50 again



Regards
F4T

Hi KK,
will post a chart overt the Christmas period. Currently my ceiling still holds though, the stock is not worth more. A fresh look might change these views but I doubt it. Will also look at all the recent posts as I haven't had a chance to in recent weeks.

I didn't say that the CEO hadn't quoted the 400k, I said that the number was ridiculous. Anyone with a cursory knowledge of upstream field costs or any costing for that matter would see that. So the costs were previously 400k +the market value of own fuel now consumed in their place? Fairy tales....
GKP has a sound history of inflating numbers lol.

Merry Xmas all.

F4T



GKP has a long history of inflating numbers.KoolKeith wrote:

KK,

The chart sizes question: Remo appears to have changed something in his software and charts now show to the bottom right-hand corner, which I personally think is useless, so the external link is the only way to see them properly

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONElongView.png

KK, the labelling is just a question of interpretation. If we are being strictly accurate maybe we should label them (b) / 2as they could eventually be either. Labelling causes so much dispute I usually don't post labelled charts anymore but you did ask so this is my version. I don't hold it to be perfect nor even correct, but it means something to me, and that is all that is important. Equally, I respect other versions of the 'truth' as they mean something to those that draw them. I'm just hoping that 42.50 is the low

F4T - he's right CEO said savings of $400,000 per month, and he's right - GKP is owed $250 million in back costs, also regular payments pending so it is neither totally ridiculous or pure fantasy, listen to what he sayeth as he sayeth the truth....even though this shouldn't matter how you see the charts.

However, seeing how ridiculous you thought it was, yet being the truth - will it change your mind about dancing on the 80's ceiling?....Nothing to do with Lionel Ritchie, but see what I did.

I'd love to see your thoughts in a chart F4T 'cos ya got game my friend! ...Well you've called it better than anyone!

and "it is incredible how the two often collide in mutual harmony"


Merry Christmas y'all!

Food4Thought wrote:

It is all in the RNS dated 16th December, my error is printing £ instead of USD $:

ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone...id=13075308&ishtml=1


"An amine plant is currently being tested at PF-2, to be followed by the similar plant at PF-1 in early 2015. The amine plants will sweeten the associated gas stream, allowing it to be used as fuel for the production facilities instead of diesel, representing savings of up to US$400,000 per month to the project".

This is where I see the failings in "trading", as an "investor" would know this already

Sorry, but i find the notion that you can save 400k on monthly field energy costs totally ridiculous. Pure fantasy IMO on several levels. Are they sending power to Erbil lol.
AdeMcG wrote:

I'm pretty much looking at the same thing as the last chart I posted, which is the same thing Ade McG is looking at, we're in minor waves of the 3 i'm not sure if today was i or we've had i at 69p, too early to say, indicators up though. Diver - quick question, why do you have low of 42.25p
labelled (b) and Wavesurfer has (II) potential bottom of supercycle? Can you post a zoomed out chart so I can see your counts by any chance?

Thanks in advance.




screencast.com/t/9J8bT79YLB

P.S Diver I tried the dimensions you mentioned for screen resolution but looked the same and I couldn't read notes I'd put on! Hence the edit and added link.

PPS - here's WTI crude chart, I've looked at a few charts and they suggest a correction up from these levels before another leg down mid next year - they mostly suggest we're at bottom of wave 3 down so wave up for correction through first half of next year before last leg down. Here's a trendline chart with no counts - screencast.com/t/Y7hqhmihTx

Laters

Fundamentals having nothing whatsoever to do with charts; they merely compliment and substantiate what the charts are telling us But it is incredible how the two often collide in mutual harmony

As for "Non earning" a second (of what hopefully will be regular payments)from the KRG is imminent and as they owe some £250 million there must be quite a backlog of payments to come, perhaps they could fund the pipeline on behalf of GKP?

There is the £400K monthly reduction in costs that will come from using their own produce for energy uses on plant.
A trial has already happened with Fishkhabour pipeline entry point for Shaikan crude which is only 100Km away as opposed to the 1000K away the current market point (Turkish Cost). Quite a reduction per barrel when this comes off.

Oh and we will have an RNS this week (maybe next) on the 40K bopd production (increase from 23K).

Put this in with the "never been better" political arena (KRG and Baghdad agreements - this would leave only the Oil & Gas law to sort), Budget seems to be agreed and will be formalized soon) and you have the best backdrop "fundamentally" for GKP ever.

The thing is TF on that logic ... then the mischievous suggestion might follow that any rise to 117 or beyond can only be based on the buying of...er...chartists or the over hopeful... aka the deluded. Because no fundamental based investor working rationally at least will trust the rise. Any rise is not underpinned by fundamentals in the sense of solid earnings etc... can only be based on hope that such will materialize in the future ( like a T/O based on fanciful valuations) and if this is over optimistic then inevitably the price retraces all the way back again.

Perhaps all non earning Aim shares are in this condition. One is actually following the waves and dips of sentiment alone.

Fundamentals?!?!
Never heard of that!! lol....

What i will say is, if one was following Fundamentals, with regards to GKP... you can sure, more than likely they'd be well under water atm.... imho...
Or sold at a serious loss.... just my honest opinion...

Regards,
Trendfriend

Its interesting chartists talking about fundamentals... because i wonder what they do support aside from magic T/Os of course... (always possible as Afren is hoping. )
...but noticed that previously F4T when he mentioned fundamentals was highly skeptical above 85. His somewhat pessimistic views generally have played out. Nothing I would like more than you to be right of course.... but how far are the charts tied to fundamentals in the end? I ask as someone with a healthy respect for both charts and fundamentals lol!

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF...NE%28daily%29%29.png

A few hurdles await in the shape of resistances at 70; 81; 85 and 117, with the last being at the 161% extension of the move up from 48.50.

With the fundamental prognosis now looking far more favourable than of late, perhaps, just perhaps, things are improving. I remain hopeful for a better 2015

Let's not get carried away - 117 needs to be breached and held before real celebrations can begin!

Agree on the weekly chart Ade for the 123 low ,,,, I have a break of 85 and an initial target of 121.50

www.screencast.com/t/FkRNkKBcTm

Could it be setting up a 1, 2,3 breakout...with the "1" being the 80+ 0n 10th Nov, the "2" being the retest of 50p 15th December....a break of the 85p line (finally) would confirm?

i13.photobucket.com/albums/a272/ademcg/GKP22Dec.jpg

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...M1xc=&symbol=L%5EGKP

Looks good to me.... a close above those moving ave's @ 65/66p area, should mean this will push on imho....

Regards,
Trendfriend

Hey y'all,

Not really been much to talk about here as oil has been tumbling at such a rapid rate. I did scale in long from 54 - 49p with average of 52p for a little flutter on a spread bet, sold out for all of 1.75 pips as I had to go out this morning! LOL! I could have taken 5! Hardly beer money!!! It broke a small wedge to upside today which I'd been watching. CAO (Awesome oscillator) indicator has now gone red confirming the wave 2 proper, which I'd mentioned previously, doesn't mean it can't re-test lows though if the downward spiral of oil continues, but makes more sense now from an EW perspective...With a bounce of oil or continued positive news flow, I don't see why we couldn't kick off wave 3, depends on your risk appetite, but I was happy scaling in at these prices - gap left behind so it's a wait and see really, but if the bottom is in, wave 3 is gonna be a nice ride up, just a question of when? Not long though me thinks - unless it puts in a new low and then I'll need some new crayons for Christmas!!

This is the charts of crude light oil,
This is just heading towards its normal trading area so people should not be shocked by this.
Hopefully petrol prices should come down at the pumps to help out everyone even thou its all tax.
Its funny how prices at pumps drop so slowly yet when crude rises it moves fast at the pumps.
i remember when crude broke 100 dollars a barrel and price of a liter of petrol moved above £1 a liter. now its at 50 dollars a barrel and price of fuel is at £1.20 a liter so its obvious we are all getting robbed at the pumps by the governments.


weekly chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/crude15thdec2014.png

daily chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/crude15thdec2014daily.png

No point unless crude has bottomed.

Thanks Ian.

Would you buy if the price reached 42p or not even then?

We had a beautiful shooting star on 3/12 but it was the lower low on 1/12 that set the tone for the recent fall. 3/12 set a lower high to go with the (now) two lower lows. Key supports were 64 and 58.50 which fell without resistance, the latter very decisively yesterday. A break of the 61.8% fib points to a 100% retrace.

Today we bounced on the next support of 50.25 and this is of course now a key level.

Regarding crude, everyone was talking about possibly of $60 for WTI when OPEC stood firm, and that is where we are now. I had thus waited and thought that this level might find support so we will see. FOr E&P companies, the key is not in TA it is in which ones have high finding and lifting costs and thus a high b/e on crude. This is why Afren has been pulverised. We know that GKP's finding costs are very high (high DD&A) but what about lifting? Heavy crude, sulphur and trucking tell me they are not great. Does anybody have this number?

We will see a new bottom here if crude prices don't settle, but I certainly see 50.25 being pierced. If we close below then it's a quick descent to 42.25. Trendline support is at ~44.50 but I wouldn't count on that.

It is not a time to buy or trade until crude finds a bottom.

F4T

Nice chart Count... i like that RSI!!

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...7s%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP
I was tempted with this today, it came to the area i was looking for, but i did not buy today:unsure:
firstly, crude keeps making new lows.
secondly this made a lower high at 81p, and i'm thinking its going to make a lower low(56p area??) before bouncing.
I was watching the 50 ema @ 84.5p area, and it closed below this.
Buying the dips here has served me well over the last couple of months, but this time i'm going to wait and see if we can get a close above the 50 day, before buying...

All bullish stocks get back above the 50 day moving ave, so lets see what happens..

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Closed 63 on the nose and majority of today's daily candle lies above both oblique supports (major and minor) so got my fingers crossed that this is not a break of these supports and SP may bounce from here tomorrow (though not so confident it will, GKP often surprises). TF Although I'm sure your interpretation of RSI trendline break is probably correct I have taken a small liberty and re-drawn it so it hasn't broken out yet

I guess tomorrow will be a telling day ')
screencast.com/t/0fQkjJyjLt4r

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...TNYw=&symbol=L%5EGKP

The rsi has broken support, the share price is lilkely to follow...
Watch thge 20 day ema...
63p vital here, a break and a few days below 63p......
Careful here now imho...could bounce back, and its holding 63p for now so lets see..

Regards,
Trendfriend.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Weekly%20Dec14.PNG

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...eY%3D&symbol=L%5EVED

I think this chart shows GKP is range bound atm...
It quite easy to trade it imho... look out for the rsi to hit that support line, should be around 63/65p area when it does..

It will break out upwards at some point imho, lets deal with that if and when it happens...until then i'm having fun trading this
Regards
Trendfriend

So we have gone to 67 and now its 63 that has to hold... expected more of a "woosh" up though.. not much of an attempt at 85. Maybe as far as the new agreement between the KRG and the Iraqi gov go, ostensibly good news, its still once bitten...

Tf - nice candle on your chart on 1 Dec too. 3rd day confirm it ?

I like to surf, 85 break, hold n closex2 and you will see a whoooosh. 63p must hold closing basis.

Year low and 85 us just banging in the base. For real strenght to start playing out a close abv 85 n 102 and the base will start pumping...possibly to that gap..with pullbacks along the way.

63, 68, 78, 85,102

cheers ws

quote="roxalana" post=11720]Yea,it was a cop out as i'm no surfer but there are plenty of sp drivers that would make such a rise a distinctly plausible possibility.
You see kk,i'm good at this whole cop out thing.
There goes another:) whooooooosh[/quote]

Yea,it was a cop out as i'm no surfer but there are plenty of sp drivers that would make such a rise a distinctly plausible possibility.
You see kk,i'm good at this whole cop out thing.
There goes another:) whooooooosh

roxalana wrote:
Cop out! See my post 11th November....anything is possible or is that impossible?

I will tell you what i reckon when we hit 110/120p

Nice close, just above the 50 day ema!!

Tomorrow will be interesting.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...i4=&symbol=LSE%3AGKP

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Are we ridin' a wave 3????

Roxi "Inv h&s is the dream, what will be the reality?"

Whadda ya reckon?

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9pBE=&symbol=L%5EGKP

RSI breakout??
Watch 75p (50 day ema), a break above, and a retest of the recent highs is on at around 85p.

keep buying the dips imho... anyone doing that would be nicely up on this atm...

Regards,
Trendfriend

Smiling sheepishly.....

EDIT: Ok, less sheepishly now

www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new...detail/12169336.html

news.sky.com/story/1383271/ex-bp-boss-ha...ed-by-kurdish-payout

How do you know this Roxlana?
thanks
Ade

---

Edit...oh wow just read the iii BB
It could be an interesting day.

Luckily enough I had set my sl at 64p and it didn't get taken out on Friday....lets see what happens. Good luck all holders.

Paynents to genel,dno and gkp by the Kurddish regional government to be announced in the morning.
This news will hopefully provide gkp and genel with some well needed stability and may help form a base for the sp.

Inv h&s is the dream,what will be the reality?

Hi Food,i look at your chart and find myself staring at an inverse h&s,am i madly deluded.......... or just plain old fashioned deluded?

Hi Richard,



if you recall I had 75 and then 64 as key supports. A break of 75 pointed to 64, being the 50% fib of the rise from 42.25. This happened last week as expected. We now also have a lower low on the daily, so the short term uptrend is broken. MA50 is also at 64 and that helped stop the fall on Friday.

So, daily breakout of downtrend failed and weekly resistance held on price and RSI (this was the key chart IMO).

I think GKP got off lightly with the E&P Co falls last week after OPEC - it usually excels in both directions so maybe more to come.

Next stop/support is 58.50 on daily, being the next swing low of 5/11 and the 61.8 fib. If that goes then we might retest the low of recent months. 58.50 needs to hold. First support below that is 50.

Trendline support on the weekly is in the 40 area but the monthly trendline support is right at 64, where we are now.

However you look at it, it doesn't look good and for me, 58.50 is a certainty now. If that breaks I will wait for 42. Hope none of the bulls here bought that false breakout .

GL
F4T

psyurmh wrote: