This is very Intriguing TA indeed.

What would those 261.8% and 423% levels be this time round Jackozy?

I am amazed by TA but still have much to learn.

Many thanks.

Sorry, I forgot to add...sometimes extended waves are so strong the they do have multiple extended subwaves and this can lead to them reaching the 261.8% or even the 423% levels (GKP did this latter in Autumn 2009) but this is really quite rare and requires some major fundamental change.

Diver, thanks for your reply. In response, I hope I can answer Bonobo's question purely from a theoretical standpoint ie if GKP follows EWT then the answer to Bonobo's question automatically emerges.

Most impulse waves have one extended subwave. This is most commonly the 3rd, sometimes the 5th and almost never the 1st. To that end we can denote the 1st subwave of an impulse to have unit length. In GKP's case (if we are assuming that it is in an impulse as opposed to a corrective wave), this 1st wave was from 161p to 187.7p. That's 26.7p obviously.

Let's also assume that the move up from 172p was/is the 3rd wave and that it's extended per the norm (after all, it did retrace almost exactly the "correct" amount of 61.8% for a wave 2). An extended wave is, in fact, normally 161.8% of the unit (1st) wave, not the 261.8% figure you've used according to EWT. I won't go into the maths here but that is definitely what EWT says about the theoretical length of an extended wave.

So, wave 3 ought to be 161.8% of 26.7p which is 43.2p. Add this to the assumed wave 2 low and we get 215.2p. This is uncannily close to the natural resistance at 217p which was a nice coincidence. In reality it's hit 220p and then dropped back to close below the 161.8% Fib.

Again, if we assume 220p to have been the real top of wave 3 then we'd expect a 38.2% retrace theoretically. This would take us to 220-(220-172)x0.382 which is 201.7p. That's the theoretical level for a wave 4 assuming that this series is impulsive. 203/4p is pretty close to this is it not?

Further, EWT suggests that if the 3rd wave is extended then the 5th is likely to be no more than equal to the 1st wave. Let's assume it's exactly equal at 26.7p. We add this to the theoretical wave 4 low of 201.7p and we get 228.4p for the wave 5 target. Remarkably close to the gap resistance at 230p, no?

So, I'd favour a drop back to that key area (in fact a backtest of the breakout from 204p would be sufficient for me) before rising to fill the gap. That would complete 5 waves up and the 1st wave up of a larger degree series.

And what do we expect after a 1st wave up? The theoretical norm would be a 61.8% retrace and guess where that would take it? You've guessed it...a backtest of the breakout from 187p.

Of course, it's very dangerous to assume that theory will play out and we should always trade what we see in front of us but it is quite uncanny how theory so often fits with natural supports and resistances. I didn't call 161p as the low but I did state it as an important support level. Despite what some may say, theoretically until there's a retrace which stays above 200p followed by a new high above 220p there's still a possibility that this whole sequence from 161p is corrective rather than impulsive.

I will not be assuming that the theory above will play out. I will bear it in mind but you never know. Here are some of the Fib sequences I've discussed on a chart. They're colour coded so you know which Fib lines belong to which sequences:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily12_01_13.gif

Remo,

Thank you very much for your reply. Really appreciated. I now understand the 123 signal now.

BTW I always use daily chart, 5 minutes chart. Not for trade, you know. I just for fun.

Fa

hi food4thought
Thanks for your concern
but ive been beating the markets for a very long time now and you just have to look at my recommendation .I trade every thing out there so to do that its very difficult. Just go through all my post and see how many tips ive given.(Just look at my recent blog on trades update) You also need to bear in mind i have a system and i take profits pretty quickly.
this subject is arguable so lets just agree to disagree.
thanks mate

Food4Thought wrote:

hi greenhill
on my chart on the 10th jan i have labelled the 123 breakout.

heres is a close up



here is another example with the higher highs and lows labelled.


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/gkp123example.png

heres the link to the 123 low write up in the learning section that may help you to understand it better.
www.chartsview.co.uk/learning/123-low.html

on my chart i have the resistance as 217.5 and that level got tested on Friday and it held.

203 is support and also the trendline at 163 (changes daily). since your using the monthly its harder to be precise so you should look at it from a daily view to be able to get a more accurate price.
so both the levels you mentioned are more or less there as support.
I think your chart is of a daily chart and not monthly.

hope this is helpful

I believe GKP rising is the rolling coast again. As those brokers have to write the articles for encourage people to buy shares, obviously GKP is one very contradictory attracted shares. The political problem is having in favour of GKP, but not break thru yet. Interesting time and also anxious time. The court case still has some months to get the judgement results.

This recent rise is due to the brokers recommendations. Nothing changed from the end of Dec to the recent a few days in terms of news.

Remo,

it seems we have different definitions of the word crowd. My definition is the majority and it is the majority of transactions that move the market. I am not sure what your definition is. Perhaps you mean the majority of amateur PI's that post on public internet forums.

If that is the case then I agree.

If not, then be careful in thinking that you can beat the market mate. Contrarians never win in the long term, that is a fact.

I am going to leave it there.

F4T

Hi remo, when I was writing my post, you have submitted a post 14:25, which answered my query about the support figures. Many thanks.

However, hope you will teach me about the 123. Lol.

Hi Remo, This is my first post here. As you know I am still a learner. Would you kindly help me to know that 123 low breakout? On your post 10 Jan 2013 08:52, you said with your graphic img that 123 breakout. Could I ask you to put number 1, 2, 3 on your graphic img, so help me to know this 123.

Also we see the highest sp is 219.25p, can regard it as resistance, similar to Jackozy 217 resistance. According to my 2 year GKP candlestick chart, the support is 170p near future, may in 1 month time scale. So would it be 170 as support or 203p as support?





Don't know my insert file would work or not, I give a link below.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LPWYT&symbol=L%5EGKP

Let's agree to disagree.
totally agree there.
Everyones entitled there own opinion.
For me i Never followed the crowd apart from when i started trading and that was when i had the most losses.
I always Enter before the crowd and not with it.When ever i place an entry its not with the crowd.
Like i said,Most people lose in the stock market and that is a fact. Theres only a few people that win and these people are not crowd followers.They are most likely system Traders(people that leave emotions out of trading).
This topic is very arguable for both party and we could probably argue this until were both blue in the face.I do understand what your saying about the crowd as you need the crowd to push the share price higher.
Like i said no hard feelings as everyone is entitled to there own opinion and im glad you expressed your opinion. It is a discussion board after all.
remo

"You should never follow the crowd."

With respect remo, you are so wrong here. So wrong that it hurts me to point it out. The market IS the crowd and you should always follow it. There are no prizes for be contrary. How is that not obvious?

You should follow the crowd and follow the indicatoras that the crowd uses because that is what moves the market. Those are usually the common ones.

As to extremes vs closing prices, a day trader can use closing prices on any time frame he chooses, it doesn't have to be the daily.

Let's agree to disagree. I have demonstated on both Blvn and Gkp the benefit of closing prices. I called the recent bottom on both. No one else on here did.

GL with your trading.
F4T




remo wrote:

Hi bonobo
The 203 has been the fulcrum for gkp for a long time. This level has played a big role.
Up above 203 and down below 203. in my view this level is the most important level for this company.


The best place for entry is the 203 level and if it did come back to this level then there is a good chance it would bounce from it,but if it goes through then back down to the 180ish again.




you can tell that there has been good volume recently by looking at the volume chart or looking at the OBV(On Balance Volume). The OBV is at the highest point since october 2011 so that bolds well for GKP in the short term.

The share price should now head towards the 230 gap resistance in the short term .

support.....203,,187,,172,,164(short term trend line),,161,,139
Resistance..230(gap resistance),,242,,247,,261,,281,,298,,339(gap resistance),,376,,465

bonobo77 wrote:

Well, that's really odd: when I tried to post my latest GKP chart last evening the software insisted on continuing to post the previous chart; now, this morning the correct one is shown??? Scratching my head here.... Whatever!

Jacko, as far as the extension is concerned, the chart posted shows the minimum position. The way this took-off it may well go to 423.6fib. There's just no telling till we see what transpires.

Bonobo, at some point there will be a retrace. Where that reaches to will depend entirely upon how far this goes north. Therefore, the 203 level may or may not be relevant in the future. I would expect a minimum retrace of 38.2 at the end of wave 3 and, once the entire move is complete, a minimum of 50% retrace.

What is the view on GKP 'needing' to backtest 203-205p before further upward movement?

261.8 is a supposition; 161.8 is a necessity for it to be 5 waves impulsive. It also needs to have divergence between waves 3 and 5, otherwise it's not impulsive, so we will see. The last three days would definitely appear impulsive in their action.
Wave 4 would ideally be 38.2 of wave 3; and wave 5, I would love to be 1.618 of wave 4. These are not compulsory, merely idealistic, so are open to variation but, if they do, I just bet they vary in a fibo variation.
Have a good weekend over there mate. I just bet it's 'B' cold ....brrrrr!
Take care:)

Hi Diver.

Couple of questions for you: Why are you using the 261.8% Fib extension for your wave 3 target and how did you come by the 50p length for wave 5?

Genuine questions not criticisms...

Sorry, I give up.... you'll have to use the link as the insert file does not want to behave this evening:(

I'll get the right chart in a minute.....duh!

screencast.com/t/nPvzcRW7POQ




In light of the passed few days it now looks like there is a possibility the down-turn is over. In my view we need a break of 276 to confirm this view but, these past few days look impulsive so I expect the chart to pan out as shown ...... please We will then get a further retrace before, hopefully this finally blossom to show its full potential ...... pretty please

hi food4thought
every trader is different .
With trend lines it all depends on what type of trader you are.
Quite a lot of people on here day trade so using end of day charts wont be good enough as you need hourly time frames for early entry.
I use extremes and end of day charts do not show that.So totally no good for what i do.
I dont agree with the comment about most market participants use closing price.So you have to use it or else its foolish??????...Most market particpants lose so following them is not a good idea.
You should never follow the crowd.
Again its all down to what type of trader you are.If it works for you then stick with it.
here is a few examples of the difference between an end of day trend line and my extremes on a candlestick chart.

End of Day using USDGBP currency


Extremes using Candlestick


from the above example you should be able to tell which one is more effective and the big difference in them.

GKP End of Day


GKP extremes using candle


Theres not much in it when your talking short term on these but if you look at it from a long term view then the lines do appear far apart.

Dont take it the wrong way but i thought id better show the difference between the two.

Again its all down to what type of trader you are.

remo


Food4Thought wrote:

Is here a potential head and shoulders pattern here or am i imagining things?
gyazo.com/9a0181ea5446b0326f28b13e52797eb9

Well I hate to say I told you so. The 162 area was a clear bottom and long term support back to 2009 as I mentioned several times on here.

I think that many on here draw their trendlines incorrectly. You have to use the closing prices for trendlines, that is what the majority of market participants use so it is foolish to do otherwise.

I also think that alot of traders overcomplicate their analysis using too many indicators and complicated wave therapy

My advice is to keep it simple. My target is still a 50%+ gain from 162 within two month which would need a gap close at 230.

No offense meant, just giving advice as I see it.
GL to all.
F4T

Food4Thought wrote:

Yep, I'm happy to concede that it looks like I was wrong. 217p was obvious resistance so a bit of consolidation from there should be expected. If it does make a new high above 217p without going below 187p then there will have been 5 waves up which should confirm a new uptrend IMHO.

I have an active p&f target at 224p so the gap area looks to be the target for now.

true strength will come with a close abv that gap and esp 242/5. Macd has crossed on the weekly and needs to get abv that 0 line

i would not want a close below 198/96 level, as when it does it sells of every time.

nevertheless looking good so far.

This break and hold seems very convincing to me.

About time imo...

I think we probably all saw the 123-low breakout but we're so sick of this share and false hopes that nobody wanted to put the jinx on it lol!

The things about 123-low patterns is that they look the same as ABC corrections until you get a 5th wave up. Which one is this?

As far as I can see there was no bullish RSI divergence at 161p (there doesn't have to be one) and the volume at that level wasn't great so I'm with diver on this - I want to see a convincing break and hold above 204p before I start to believe. I'm not the Fox Mulder of GKP any more

PS re the car - just be thankful you didn't have to buy one over here....!!!

Im surprised that no one mentioned the 123 low breakout we had yesterday
Thats the first time we have had one since last july. Could this be the bottom?????
Look to go long on any back test with a stop possibly below the 2 point at 172.





i would have mentioned this yesterday but have been busy trying to buy a Car for the past few days. Ive bought one Now and now i was gonna sell my other car but have lost my log book Its been a stressful week trying to purchase a car .

anyway

GKP is looking good

DYOR

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_diamondv2.JPG

Im targeting about 100+ pips in the interim, if this is true breakout, 203 needs to be taken out convincingly and be able to hold for more than a day.

screencast.com/t/BQlbCsksszNA




Well, as you can see from the chart prices followed my prediction to the letter until yesterday. This was no doubt because of the news Genel shipped a little oil via Turkey. We will see if this is a permanent change of course or just a blip. The pivot point here will be 203. As long as we stay below this level I remain bearish. A concerted move above will mean a fresh look at the labelling....

Hmmm, lots of negativity on here whch seems a little odd given the technicals. Positive divergence on MACD and a positive tick. In fact all indicators look pretty good to me. Maybe some missed the entry point.

Last time the sp hit the long term support line was 29/6 and before that 4/8/11 and both provided sizeable multi day bounces.

Well I guess the fiscal cliff will decide how the year ends and begins but if tonights session is positive IMO we are looking to test 203 and 206 at minimum in coming days. If not 162 is a bottom in any case for me not to be revisited.

F4T

GKP looks to have completed an impulsive 5 wave move downwards from it's high of 260ish. Perhaps we will see an ABC against the downtrend before a further move down.

187.00. Almost spot-on the 61.8fib retrace. Will it sink again on Monday??

Wild13, I think you're right.....'sucking us in?' IMHO this is just a bounce before yet another fall. Time will tell!

Well, I have been advocating the low 160's for some time as a bottom and it is beautiful to see such a strong bounce from the long term trendline support yesterday. No surprise really.

I am looking for 50% on yesterday's longs within two months.

Hope you all also accepted the christmas gift.

F4T

hope everyone had a great xmas here's the updated chart i've been tracking - a close abv 186.75,191 & 203 on weekly basis would be nice.
dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_DiamondV2.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

Or are they sucking us in ?? no playing sailing on aim i have learnt that for sure.

quite bullish..
but for the bulls to be in total control GKP has to finish above 203.
Or better still get a 123 low formation to build confidence.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...D35z3&symbol=L%5EGKP

well what a day - seems 162 was the kiddy today .loads of tests and it hung in there ....for now .

Interesting day and a very bullish finish at 176p.
Do we still think 140 is on the cards, or has 162p shown itself to be the bottom (rising support line from 2009).

Closer view of supporting trendline originating summer 2009 (see previous post for full period). We are bang on it right now. We might sit at the low 160's for a bit IMO.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...wtakQIinYqgeMJgnjAGw

F4T

The main trend line is at 140 area. So that's the best level to go long on first attempt only.
Id say it's heading towards that level.So there's multiple supports around that area so it should be
strong support.

Will be interesting if we break 160 as once the long term 2009 trend line support is broken it can only spell doom. In that case I doubt 140 will hold as a new game is in play.

F4T

I'm still lurking in the background for 141...unless we clearly get back above 171 then that seems a good entry area?...as always you never know with gkp!





why I think 171 must be recovered quickly or down to 141 (ready from big number 150 though)

Chart says it all really;


uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...buMgSiteASIn6CKgCq98

F4T

Hi Diver,

All the best to you and yours too!

My count is slightly different in the detail but generally I have the same sort of conclusion. It's bang on the uptrend from the 87p low as I type and the main uptrend support is at c. 139p - that really needs to hold or your 114p (or my 87p) become a harsh reality.

I still think the count works best as a double or triple (in progress) though...

Ok Jackozy, this is especially for you
I took a little time during the interminable rain here to take a little more in-depth look at this chart. I could well still be wrong so don't castigate me too much. Time will tell huh?


screencast.com/t/fRztcyVXi


I think this has to be a flat. Could even be an irregular as B just about passed the start of A. The current double complex correction is headed straight down my 'slippery slope' towards 100% of ((a)) of C at 114 or; if it gets extended, then it should go no further than the 123.6fib around 93, possibly pushing to support at 87.

You and your family have a great time over the festive season and I wish you much prosperity for the New Year. Take care!

Jackozy I didn't label the sub-waves as I wasn't concerned whether the ABC was a zigzag, flat, triangle, or multi-correction. Didn't have the time to be honest.

wow lots of bearishness here, although some points maybe valid, let's look the opposite way to cover all basis EW element and focus purely on the pattern formation on the Weekly:

Here's the weekly chart and it seems like there is a rare pattern that (produces a powerful move once broken out) has formed or is still in process. Diamond Bottom ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_Diamond.JPG

clearly the formation is developing on key support area's in sideways action ...

If this pattern is in play then there is a very good chance that the breakout will be as equally powerful of the move down.

www.thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html#DIB3

just something to ponder and certainly to keep an eye on...