Just a matter of time IMO....going down baby:)

Strike 2 on 187. Strike 3 will break IMO.

Cheers Jackozy,

it seems that we each throw doubt upon the other

I took a partial position this morning at 189 so as to cover all possibilities. I will add lower.

F4T

Trend is UP as long as it stays above 173


EOD daily above shows swing points from the low of 161.50 on 27/12/12
Its made 2HHs and 1HL

Correction from 227.75 shows a series of LHs and LL

Zoom into hourly


Bullish signs on hourly :
1. Bounced off 61.8 fib and previous breakout point
2. Bullish divergence on RSI/MACD
3. Possible 123 low forming

A close above 193.38 today will give a 123 low breakout and it will also close above the red trendline as seen on hourly chart above
Wait for it go above 193.38 for an early entry with a SL below 1 @ 186.25

Real strength will come above 197.88 which is a previous high and 200 DMA level

A close below 173 will mean more than 100% correction + a LL and will be bearish

Hi F4T,

Thanks for your views.

I agree with everything you say but, somewhat ironically, I've ended the day feeling less bullish than before whereas you've ended up slightly more bullish lol!

It was an unfortunate day to arrive at a key support so to stay above 187p was quite positive. What we need tomorrow is a strong white candle, preferably on a gap up to form the following bullish reversal pattern: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart...inverted_hammer_and_

There was every opportunity for the bears to tank this down today but they didn't. Again, a positive.

It's all about tomorrow now.

Cheers.

Some points of note for GKP as of today:

1. As noted below by remo et al, bounced off 61.8% fib today, but closed barely above it. 1 test so far, so inconclusive but it held well this morning under alot of broad market stress and remained intact for the rest of the day
2. Falling wedge (red) which is more bullish than bearish, though is it about to break to the downside?
3. Increased volume on sp descent shows lows being bought up
4. Rising long tern support currently at 173, some way off
5. Money flow index turning north and showing some divergence
6. MACD divergence on hourly (as detailed earlier by Jackozy)
7. Coiling of the main SMA's. In my experience this tight coiling often precedes a big move.

On balance the chart looks more bullish than bearish. I am in no doubt that a big move is imminent. My gut tells me to wait for 173-175 but the chart now casts some doubt. I have trained myself to always trust the chart

I am going to wait to see if 187 is tested again properly tomorrow. In the mean time I will stick with my 173 bet with Jackozy, though now with some reservations

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...3fKxRQZDmOim%2FAHCPt

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...h7wTeaj0cJeOR8n0szCz

F4T

screencast.com/t/1XJyd5p8HjC

Seems like a fairly smooth progression so far.....
Interesting days indeed.

if it does finish below the 61.8 fib then it could do a full retrace so bear that in mind

This did bounce of perfectly of the 61.8 fib level and break out point this morning.
Obviously the days young but you could have made a nice profit on a first attempt basis from that level at 186.5



dyor

CT79 wrote:
Seems to be holding up so far CT79

Not a perfect hammer at support on the hourly but not bad. Wait to see where it closes. That's the important factor for today. Needs to close above 187p initially and then a close above 199p should confirm it IMHO.

Another engulfing candlestick and ice broken beyond repair. I don't give 187 much chance here, if any.

Some interestimg days ahead.

F4T

Hi Remo/Jackozy

After yesterdays close at 189.75 and now then the DOW finishing like it did, do you see the 187 (61.8%) area having much chance of holding or is the likelihood a visit back to 172 level now looking inevitable?

Thanks
CT79

Some bullish divergences in RSI, MACD and OBV occuring on the hourly chart now:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly21_02_13.gif

Gulp!

You are on. Should be interesting given price action so far today

Hi F4T,

Yes, I agree and was aware of those facts. I'm sure there'll be some fun and games anyway

Markets are bearish for now but there may still be one last, weak, attempt from the bulls to push them to a final high before a proper correction (IMHO).

Fancy a pint on it not getting to 172/3p?

ATB

Morning Jackozy,

I have given your question more thought and looked at the chart again. As I think you are, I am a great fan of fibs and use them extensively and hold great confidence in them generally so I thought I would test the previous 61.8% breaks / retraces against the long term support line that I mentioned earlier. Moving from current to past:

1. retrace of 28/6/12 rise from 139 to 260 (19/9/12) - retraced to 161 (27/12/12) past 61.8% fib at 185 but subsequently failed full retrace to 139.

2. retrace of 4/8/11 rise from 87 to 465 (20/2/12) - retraced to 139(28/6/12) past 61.8% fib at 232 but subsequently failed full retrace to 87.

Initial retrace from 64p in July 09 didn't reach the said trendline established later.

Please note that trendline support is of course drawn on closing prices (as discussed perviously with Remo)

So we can see that the long term support line for GKP is stronger than the 61.8% fib break and historically does not lead to a full 100% retrace.

I hadn't tested this but I guess it was in my head somewhere. Anyway, it gives my plans more confidence.

GL
F4T

PS: S&P500 first trendline support broke yesterday. This could snowball with the Italian elections and US 1/3 budget deadline looking. Could be the long awaited retrace I have been waiting for. Could be bloody, so caution on longs required. IMO this will send GKP to its 172 destiny if it plays out





Food4Thought wrote:

Food4Thought wrote:

Hi Jackozy,

to answer your question I think that the long term support from 2009 is strong enough to resist a break of the 61.8% fib and subsequent full retrace. If it goes to this support I expect a lot of orders waiting, hence orders 1 or 2p above is prudent.

I would agree that if this support breaks then all bets are off. I believe 230 will wait now until legal resolution.

F4T

PS: Agree about info though. I never look for it outside RNS's anymore. Waste of time. Irrespective of CC result (for/against) I expect this to fly when the verdict is in as uncertainty removed (some anyway ), hence a hold at 173.


Jackozy wrote:

Agreed. In fact, a close below 199p today will form a bearish engulfing candle right from downtrend resistance.

Quick question though: why 172/3p F4T? I know 172p is a support but by then it'll have gone through the 78.6% Fib so a full retrace and maybe more would be on the cards, no?

Also, has anyone looked at the P&F charts recently?

Re the news, I don't know why everyone is always so desperate for news to come as, more often than not, it gets sold in to. Is it just a need for information and to know that something is still actually happening behind the scenes?

The close yesteray below 200 is the first since the Jan rise. I see this as a chink in the ice. Another today will make skating unsafe IMO.

For me, 187 is still a certainty and 172/3 support is a probability. I wait for the latter which will be a hold.

Syrian Empire, pray what leads you to believe that the market makers are "keeping a lid on it"

F4T

The last x2 RNS - Both apply the Sales technique of implying a Time Based Window of Opportunity

The court case and now 40k/day export grade production by Mid 2013 - The SP has a lot of pent up potential for a rise. How long can the market makers keep a lid on it?

As Wave 3 is impulsive - The fear of missing out on Wave 3 will be the trigger - Which will surely not be June!!

All IMHO etc etc..

Morning WaveSurfer,

Just a quick note, were you on the vino when you wrote your 20.49 post yesterday as Im struggling.

Tight Lines SRB

a new oil discovery on Barkman, sweet light oil. should get this going.... usually its sells off on more oil found lol.

www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/new...ouncementId=11494587

lets see how the action unfolds..

Jacko, you've already got two in (( a )) and (( b )). The labeling may have to alter dependent on the structure the subsequent swings may take.

guys looks like GKP is putting in a few nested 1-2's and from where i'm looking this could indicate a big move north is due, possibly the wave that every man and his dog wants to get in on. what wave could that be then ?

dont meant mean it cant get to 196/187, it'll still remain bull. however close below 198 consecutively - i'd start look at alternatives.

Lol!

Diver, I don't want you to either ramp it or de-ramp it mate. I just want your analysis

It won't surprise you to learn that, at first glance, I've got some issues with your count on your latest link. If you've got wave A down to 141p, B up to 260p then your wave C down from there needs to be a motive wave (ie a 5) rather than the corrective form you're counting.

I'll have a further think about it and get back to you tomorrow. You've got some complicated corrective patterns going on and they're never easy to interpret!

Ok Jacko, in true ladylike manner, I've changed my mind again. I've had a bit of time this afternoon and spent a fair proportion looking at this chart.

My conclusion is as follows.....

screencast.com/t/o2DjT4EW

So as to avoid any mishaps and confusion I'm only posting this link.... from ( B ) we go skyward to those fluffy clouds of which dreams are made ....... I, and thousands of other PI's, hope . If you really want me to ramp it up I go for £8

Sorry Jackozy, the correct chart is the link; think I'm gonna give up trying to post the 'pretty picture' version as it always appears to pick up an older version of the same chart?? Not only that but it never expands sufficiently to make it viable.
Diver

Hi Diver,

I've just been looking again at your wave count posted earlier and I notice that the link has a different count from the chart. Which one are you running with at the moment please?

OK, here's how I see the corrective move from 450p:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/GKPcorrectioncount19_02_13.gif

It makse sense to me for the severity of the zigzag down to 141p to be balanced by a bullish flat. It also makes sense that the correction is at least a double three (possibly a triple three) as the drop was so fast that it really needed extending timewise.

I had previously thought that all wave Cs must consist of 5 subwaves but I've since discovered that they can have the corrective form only when they're in wave W, Y or Z positions (they can also be triangles but only as the last move of a double or triple three and there's clerly no triangle anyway).

Remo, you could be right about that slightly lower low....but...that would make for a very small wave C in comparison to the same degree wave A, no? It would also suggest a wave C with only 3 subwaves which isn't right (unless it's a wave W, Y or Z)

Diver, yes, it seems our recent views coincide however, I note that you (and Wreckless Eric too it seems) are counting the move down from 450p to 141p as a wave A down implying a low much lower than 141p to come later on. I have 141p as the low of a wave W with wave Y ending at on orthodox low (not a price low) at 161p. I'll try and post a chart showing this later on.

Wreckless Eric, I think most of us seem to be in agreement that it's shaping up for a move to the gap at 339p in the coming months. You're also expecting that to be followed by a retrace below 141p if I read you post correctly? That might finally break the backs of all the long term fundamentalists if it were to happen!

Hi diver 993,

Looking at your longerterm chart, I see a 3,3,3,3,3 (EW 5x3 diverging formation) since the 141 breakout

The present final 2 of final 3 may well be lower before the final up ? (280 - 320 ?)

141 - 320? Being wave B ? With final wave C down to come,imo

Good luck to all traders and longterm holders in Gkp, it,s going to get volatile as Remo says

Please make your own minds up, from a cool Korea have a good day.

Hi

Remo: close your eyes and ears, it's fundamental stuff!

I found this write up which is based on the RNS today.

www.iii.co.uk/articles/75604/gulf-keysto...legal-dispute-update

Interesting.

Gee

screencast.com/t/vS1dIkteHcj




Jacko, charts look pretty similar huh? I'm still expecting this to go to 185 minimum, and possibly to 177 extension where there is support.

hi jackozy
That 194 area is a good support level. Since the price took 7 trading days to re-attempt the same area may still imply strength of 194. If the price tested the same area a few days apart then re-tested it then a better chance of it going through. Since its been more than 7 trading days since the last test it may still hold but as you say that area has been weakened. I would not be comfortable going long at the 194 area.I would be more comfortable at the 61.8 fib level like you.Also that just so happens to be breakout point.

regarding your waves .
those 2 test of the 195 and 194.11 may have completed an ABC correction as the 194.11(your A) was slightly lower than the 195(your W) so could be classed as complete. Unless my chart is wrong???
Any way as you know i only do Elliott on indexs and currency This is all yours.

Looks like it respected that downtrend perfectly today. What do you make of those 2 dips down to 195/6p remo? To me they suggest a possible descending triangle, or at least a weakened support.

210.5p was also the hourly p&f target (that p&f chart has been pretty reliable recently).

FWIW, my updated wave count of the move from 161p is now as follows:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/GKPdaily18_02_13.gif

In finer detail, the ABW wave looks like a zigzag (5-3-5) and, if correct, wave ABY looks like it's shaping up to be a flat (3-3-5).

I'm still expecting a test of the 187p breakout point which is also the 61.8% Fib of the 161p to 228p move. I could still be wrong on this of course. Either way, I'm waiting for either 187p or a close above 230p. Anything inbetween leaves the picture unclear IMHO.

Court case maybe over in 3 weeks time so expect some volatility on this share.
If this can finish above 210 then that would be bullish as that would finish above short term trend line and also the rsi trend line is breaking out today. obviously the day is young and things can change by the end of day.
Like i said this ones gonna get volatile soon so be aware.

I agree with that, especially since it may be 3 months+ before cc settled. Lots of time for market downturn.

I am doing BIG charts today, so here's my big GKP chart.

The chart tells me that it is well worth waiting for rising long term support, currently in the 171/172 area. SP has bounced off falling resistance twice already and GKP is weak atm.

I am looking for general weakness to appear in the broad markets to ensure my entry.

We will see eh!

F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...BkbAzqHUErFUj8cyYNdp

Hi F4T,

I think we're in agreement. The bounce from 195p looks like a wave B up of 2 down to me so I'm also looking towards 187p.

Cheers

Hi SE,

There are always option with wave counts so they should always carry a caveat emptor.

IN GKP's case the whole move from 139.25p to 260p and back to 161p is bizarre and very difficult from an EWT perspective. What seems to have clarified things is the move up from 161p to 228p which looks a lot like 5 waves (and, indeed, all the subwaves are perfect in respect of the textbook retracements). If that's the case then an initial 5 wave sequence in a trend change cannot be the last move in that direction.

As I've posted previously, it's now my belief that 161p was probably the bottom (I did earlier think that, given the 139p to 260p there could be a retrace to 139p or lower). Whether the bounce off 195p holds or not I'm not sure.

A 50% retrace is enough for a wave 2 down but what's throwing me for now is that the dip to 195p is not reflected in the hourly chart as the mid-price only went to about 197/8p. This means that the hourly chart has a less than 50% retrace which is usually not enough for a wave 2. For these reasons I still think it's possible that a retrace to 187p may still be possible. Whether it could go beyond that in the event of a large general market correction we'll probably only know with hindsight I'm afraid.

Things are getting interesting again. Lovely dark cloud cover yesterday after the indices finally submitted to a much needed retrace, which is not over yet. Once S&P broke 1505 the rest was just exhaustion.

With GKP we back tested the neckline of the H&S on the last rise from 195 spike down (50% retrace of 161 move) and now everything points nicely down. First target still 187 and rising long term support is now in the 169/170 area so traders can forget about 161 IMO. It should be history.

If long term support at 170 does break then so will 161 and I would expect at least 141, but I don't think that will happen unless the CC gloes very tits up.

So, in summary, this is a sell down to minimum 187 and a strong buy at 170 if we get there. I think we might just do that as I see the indices giving back some more and GKP is always weak in that environment.

Cheers
F4T

Jackozy - If the DOW tanks and takes the markets with it - how does this impact your Wave count on GKP? Does this bring 161 back into play?

We agree again F4T!

If you believe in the fractal nature of price charts then they should appear on any timeframe.

Perhaps of more relevance is where in the chart they appear. For me, an H&S needs to be at the top of an uptrend and vice versa for an inverse H&S. That could be the top (or bottom) of a trend on the 5 min chart or the weekly chart, just as long as it's not in the middle of a trend. In that respect, they should be near important supports or resistances (on the relevant timeframe) or have clear divergences at the heads.

Eric,

not sure what the textbook answer is but ot my mind the H&S pattern, by its nature can fit any time frame.

Head is a higher high as the bulls get a little excited, profit taking then occurs at the new high and when the bulls fail to make another higher high traders bail out happily and the bears take control. It is one of the most reliable chart patterns being greed followed by panic selling once it is clear that the high will not be exceeded. This could be just as common on a 5 minute chart as a monthly one IMO.

I am sure there are other opinions though.

F4T

A question on H&S that I asked earlier (17th January) under KAZ inverted H&S:-

" Question for Remo or anyone. The H&S and Inverse H&S in the learning section are over about 4 months each, if Inverse H&S for KAZ that would be over a year, is that still valid?"

---

F4T you mention a H&S for GKP in the short term, which is more reliable for H&S, short-term, 4 months or longer-term?

Obviuosly not just one indicator to be used, but just wondered what chartists views/experience is on what makes for a stronger H&S pattern?

Jackozy,

Ditto. I am afraid that I always come across negative on these boards but it is because I am over critical of everything I read. But note that I am also just as critical in resting my own views.

If I have a position or am looking to enter or exit one, I always start with the negative. What can go wrong rather than what can go right. There is far too much positive bias around IMO, especially with these oilies. On a positive note, it is this positive bias that makes stocks like GKP so profitable to trade.

I also review different indicators (not EWT I might add), but try not to muddle the decision making with too many. If you analyse too long the moment is missed, so experience generally guides well. I have my favorites which I find fairly reliable and stick to that combination. Many have been used and discarded over time. I am a big fan of fibs, candlesticks, trendlines and the main MA's. I like to keep things as simple as possible. MACD divergence is one of the most reliable indicators IMO.

I'll post a line chart so as not to upset the high / low brigade here. Fibs are drawn from extremes of course;

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u...ISkg5bmL4fhPHc4Ow9Pw

Your comments are interesting regarding fibs and EWT.


Cheers
F4T

Jackozy wrote:

Couldn't agree more, however I find it a constant battle to be objective. Often I manage it, sometimes I fail and it doesn't help me when I fail.

Thanks Shotry.

Not in employment, no, but I did advanced maths and the sciences at A level and then Uni.

No other method makes sense does it? What's the point in always trying to prove yourself right? That's what I see so many chartists doing (especially wrt GKP) and what I used to do myself until I learnt that it's a sure way to failure.

Everyone can always come up with reasons supporting ther view no matter how contrived they may be but you learn nothing from this. The real beauty of doing it the other way round (null hypothesis) is that you get a win/win situation.


ATB