Well there's definitely been 5 swings so this is due a retrace..... and the target area is, as always - 50 to 61.8% - 154.12 to 151.32.

Hi Food4though,

Do you use line charts for all your trendlines?

Thanks
Amo

lol f4t - dont worry i aint going to get upset lol... thanks anyway...

not too concerned abt the exactness of lines tbh, just the structure unfolding within and at what price points.

its opinions that make a market afterall...

just an observation, not being picky ;0

wavesurfer, you will get a better fit with trendlines drawn on a line chart. Support is 155, a little lower to the trendline

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...L0Gvmu1ttW7TdZDdQr5I

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KfQ4ptJ1ip9WcaTN+JDG

Bearish engulfing candle right at resistance yesterday, possible three outside down pattern completing today and double bearish positive divergence in RSI all pointing to at least a correction and possibly wave 5 of C (would need to be truncated or a diagnonal triangle having breached wave 1 low):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily05_06_13.gif

Plus, check out the hourly chart which shows the double bearish divergence in RSI plus the breakdown of the RSI formed from the hourly bullish divergence at the 126p low:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KPhourly06_06_13.gif

quick one...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_06June.JPG

Thank you remo for your post with the chart. Amazing when you added the channel, it is so clear that in the past since April, GKP has a downtrend channel. Also thank you for adding the link.

I also feel very benifit for Food4Thought comments on GKP chart viewing. Today sp reachs 166p. So I expect 190ish as new channel resistance and 160ish as support. Welcome for correcting me.

nice summary F4T !

looking good for sure...note those Ma's on weekly and monthly - daily fired a 1st buy signal on 15th May, will we get a 2nd and 3rd confirmation buy signals on weekly and monthly charts....Food4Thought wrote:

Well, haven't posted for a while after some rather unfortunate comments but thought i'd give my update to the mix. Chart taken at 9.30 today.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...DCrMxs7ks8pjKkw9Z0Xc

As indicated in my last post, anything sub 140 was good value with the bottom likely to be in the 130 area. Things went pretty much as planned with a large initial bounce that faltered right on the lower blue channel resistance. Some consolidation followed before the same at the upper channel resistance. This was pierced yesterday with a high right on the 38.2% fib before retracing below our resistance line. We now need a close above 161 and some consolidation in this area would be positive. Failure to close above 161 could result in a healthy retrace to the lower 150's.

However, we are now nicely above the MA20 & MA50, money flow looking promising but some concern at the lack of volume. Next horizontal resistance is in the 171 area but I do not expect this to be exceeded before some retrace or consolidation.

All in all things looking okay. What is important about this rise is that it provides room for whipsaw or retrace should negative news arrive. The 130 area will remain strong support going forward.

F4T

This is testing that resistance channel again.
For GKP to move higher this has to break that channel.A finish above 164 would open up 190ish again.
The 164 level held on first attempt but the fact that its been hovering around that level for a few days bolds well for the bulls
Im already long on this from the 123 low breakout a few weeks back.Ill be adding once this breaks above 164 and finishes. So if its above 164 after 4.20pm may take a position with stops below 154.
dyor

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp3rdjune.png

correct OG..

most importantly, close abv 162 be a good start, a close abv 178 even better on monthly view- the result in doing so is it will put in an outside month reversal candle stick.. that be really nice, however lets not get ahead of ourselves yet... 1 more day to go and more important 161/162 day close required.

all imho

Cheers WS

How do I see this? The downtrend is broken after sp is 160-161p (my impression from previous chart reading, this 160-161p is resistance). Now it is 165p. If sp is higher than 165p, then downtrend is over. Pls correct me if I understand wrong.

Yes, could be forming a 5th wave up from the 126p low. Downtrend resistance (from the 228p high) is at 165p today and there are 3 active P&F targets all within 0.5p of 165p. If it makes 165p then we should be good to go long on the retrace at c. 141/3p (61.8% Fib):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily30_05_13.gif

here we are...breaking out... now key watch will be holding that line on any back test

quick chart

the current move could setup an asc triangle breakout... close and hold abv 155...should see approx 10/15 pip move to upside...

so ranging 148- 155, and over time price range will tighten up till it brakes out....

also month end approches, work keeping an eye on the monthly chart & weekly charts.

starting to see some green shoots...

161/162 break abv like to see tho...

dyor.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp24thmay.png

or do you just want the volume by itself????

Remo can u post an updated volume chart

Tia

Ws

Thanks Idiodyssey..

13 & 5 on weekly and monthly for longer term, shorter timeframes mix of 5-89 ema, i also like 34 ema on daily. i find them useful for my style of trading for both short term and long terms plays, determining the flow of a wave in conjunction with other analysis...
rgds, WSidiodyssey wrote:

Hi wavesurfer

Enjoying reading your posts. What EMAs you are using and are they particular for the weekly or any timeframe? Thanks in advance.

here's is the same chart with some Ema's on it that i use all the time mainly to detect long term trend changes in indices....when red cross green - will generate trend change and buy signal..a vice versa sells...

152 & 161*** close abv is very very important

pssst - looking bully

keep a watch

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_ema.JPG

Here's the update Weekly posted some weeks back...

rgds WS





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly22May.JPG

Backtest the lower tl of tri break......





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_22%20mayv1.JPG

All in all, this continues to play out almost perfectly and the downtrend's days look very limited from here barring something completely unforeseen.

---

u bet

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKPhourly21_05_13.gif

It seems pretty hard now to see this post-159.5p move as a bullish continuation pattern but a final wave 5 of C down was expected so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.

In fact, there are some interesting features to the recent price action. Firstly, the bounce from 140.5p reached the 78.6% Fib which is quite bullish as it would "normally" only reach the 61.8% Fib.

Secondly, the projection of this move gives us an interesting target, namely 126p. This comes from the 161.8% extension of the first wave down projected from the top of the second. We can understand why there'd be a bounce off this level and that bounce has a projection to 137.5p, just as before.

Beyond that it gets a bit unpredictable as 5th waves can do all sorts of things. The textbook projection (assuming of course that it all plays out as above) would be c. 119p where there is a support, but 5th waves can fail so it may not get that far. If the 3rd wave down of this move does go to 126p then that will be the extended wave so it's unlikely that the 5th will go further than 119p sp 87p would become unlikely.

All in all, this continues to play out almost perfectly and the downtrend's days look very limited from here barring something completely unforeseen.

This appears to have broken south from the symmetrical triangle.

My 15 min chart doesn't have that +ve div, WS. I'm wondering if this is a wave 4 triangle (I suspect you're thinking the same?), but maybe the drop to 140.5p was a bit far for that since a symmetrical triangle is a bullish pattern?

Only one way to find out!

Hi WaveSurfer
Are you predicting a likely move up?

yep - when i put that tri, it was just tentative as was just anticipating the move and at a level off the body of candle due to weight of that price area that time.....

you are correct to now connect the highs of the upper TL of the tri....so now a perfect tri has formed and now it's coiling and boiling... the edge to reposition will come when it breaks n holds now, unless you want to trade the squiggles inside..its getting tighter...

also current 15min had +div

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_20th%20mayv1.JPG






daily looks interesting...maybe one for this evening...

cheers WS

I can't pretend to understand what you're trying to say with that 15m chart, WS, but thanks anyway!

Here's my 15 min chart showing a similar triangle base, but with a different resistance:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP15min20_05_13.gif

I have triangle width as 19p (159.5-140.5) so that's the target from the breakout whichever way it goes, n'est-ce pas?

updated - have a great week all

155 big level - start of break down on 23 April(daily chart) to recent lows. no break no higher.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_20th%20may.JPG

Today sp is likely reach and exceed 161p.

I'm not sure if that's likely to have a bearing on the current case since it's already concluded barring judgement however, as it happens, I closed my short at the close of play on Friday just so I wasn't holding it over the weekend.

We know what the key number are though so let's see what happens at those.

Hi all who are interested.

The litigation funders backing Excallibur shut down this week. Is this not huge news? Surely if they thought they were about to profit from the GKP case in weeks they wouldn't be shutting down.
online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873...483492868041194.html

Above info from iii GKP

I should expect to see sp up.

WS, remo, jackozy, diver993,

Many thanks to you all. Read your posts, I have reviewed 123 TA for no gamble green entering TA tech, the bulish engulf, the nickline. I am intrigued by diver993 post, he revealed that the RSI has already broken the bearish trend line, indicating a change of trend. I will continue watch the RSI and sp. However RSI is unable to indicate trend direction because it's only a momentum indicator says Complete RSI (sorry I suddenly see my note of this book. Don't know may be this book is not perfect)

16 May sp close 145p above Fib –50% , 17 May close 148p above Fib –38.2% So if the bullish is still not guaranteed, at least sp is in the critical point as WS post 13:33 today showed it could climb slowly up, or slowly slip down unless we may get shock RNS/news. But I think Fib -61.8 (142p) of last week might hold.

here's that updated 15min chart - maybe a tri forming out (tentative orange line)

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_17v3May.JPG




cheers WS

remo, jackozy, diver993 and others,

Many thanks for the courtesy of the comprehensive response - much appreciated. Sorry for my delayed response. Hard to explain why I did not login this excellent tip of trade board ( I had 2-3 important things to dealing with). I have not setted my mind on short, though I viewed and knew the 159 is resistance, and I also used Fib know that roughly Fib -50% (144p using 130p as bottom) would certainly reached. Actually it reached 142p. I now know after frenzied buy at top (resistance), the retrace usually would reach to Fib -50%, or even -61.8% is quite common.

I think the swing channel now is between 142p to 159p, most daily range might be 144p - 150p. me think.

This weeked, I can spend time on study TA, the book - complete RSI, and read and digest your excellent contribution of GKP TA.

Congratulations to jackozy and others who shorted sp at 159p. At least you earned some money. I bought a few GKP while RSI=20ish.

Welcome to any correction.

I've nailed my colours to the mast, closed my long and taken another small short at 150p with a stop just above the 61.8% Fib of 152.4. Reason? The drop from 159.5p looks like it could be wave 1 of 5 of C to me (yeah, I know - very small moves/timdeframes cannot be relied upon) but this is what I've been expecting anyway:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP15min17_05_13.gif

The move up from 140.5p doesn't "feel" bullish and looks more like a bear flag to me.

Could be wrong. Time will tell!

PS So far managed to gain 45 pips between 134 and 159 so not doing too bad for a change!

updated

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_17v2May.JPG

oh one other i forgot.... bull flag need to look at all things developing ....

assess based on price and action

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_17v1May.JPG

a few things:

bull view: 3 in 1 formation - cup n handle, inv H&S, acs tri needs to break n hold 147/148 area

bear view: 1st H&S neckline rejection, bear flag...

so up abv ~147 > 55 > 161 and down on break of 144 > 141 > 137

Cup and Handle? Would this indicate another attemt at the 155 or 161 area?

following on from previous post on inside bar - here's 15min view

see anything developing ?


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_17May.JPG

Just my 2cents.




Looking at a 12-month view (on the daily), there's a nice (down) "trend-line", confirmed by at least a dozen or so points.

I honestly don't know what to make of it, but would point out the following:

1. 226 or thereabouts looks like a key resistance area (mid-term), and this was visible on at least 2 previous occasions until it was finally confirmed by the HEAVY sell-off in Oct-2012.

2. I drew a line around the 150 mark simply to highlight how many red-candles were "taken out" but the upward surge. Clearly not that many in the grand scheme.

My conclusion? further downside to come until 160 is convincingly taken out.

Yes, I'm aware that my fellow CV patrons have pointed this number out already! Nice to find a consensus no?

I'm holder, and this is a highly sensitive and speculative share, but there's no medium term up-trend as far as I can see (happy to be corrected!).

Good luck all.

response to J's post

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_30min_16may.JPG

u maybe ok... 30min inside bar, needs to confirm.... next 1hour will be telling..

rgds WS
Jackozy wrote:

Jackozy wrote:

silly me
ive got so many charts on the go keep forgetting to redraw trend lines....dohhhh
thanks mate for letting me know...

Well, I've closed my little short at 141 in case of a bounce off the 139-141 area as discussed. I've also added a small long back in. Not quite sure how it's looking as I'm out and about. Will have a look later on but that was a pretty strong rejection of the 160 level so wave 5 down would be my favorite option still. Depends what happens at this crucial area now imho.

if 137 does not hold then......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_HnS_16thmay.JPG





also came @ resistance....

silly me ...i was testing the time function on the discussion board. Since the server went down last night it messed all the times up. Its alright now as ive re-set it all.
Syrian Empire wrote: