Yep, a close above 157.75 should do it. Next target would then be 166, then 188/9 for a rest. Even if it fails we have a higher low and higher high, which is positive.

This looks like its finally breaking out
This needs to finish above 158 for the bulls to take control.
It looks like the entry from the 61.8 fib played out well on this It should be a free trade now..


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp5thjuly.png

My chart as at 28/06/13 close. (apologies, Fridays candle does not appear to take in the post auction close)

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...53D&symbol=A%255EAPT

Friday afternoon was very bearish. The 61.8% fib of the last rise was penetrated and a close below was certain but for the odd auction, but it is month end.

The candlestick formation from Tues to Thurs is a 'bearish two crows' and this was confirmed by Fridays black candle.

www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=3210

Our trend channel is still in play IMO, once again resisting a close above resistance on the last move. I expect to see 132.50 again this week before any rise.

Support should be found at our long term trendline, but being back in the 129 - 132 area so soon is not at all promising. Resistance around 147/148 being trendchannel resistance and MA50.

Something has to break in the next week. Either the trend channel resistance or the long term support as we are approaching a triangle apex.

This is the level I always look for so am in too.

This ones currently on the 61.8 fib area from recent low to high...
Ive gone long with stops below the low.
This move down is normal after a rally so im taking the gamble .
Stops are below 126.....so 14 points risk..
Stops are a must and if it get bailed out then atleast it can possibly protect you from a bigger fall.
if it does go below 126 then that will open up the 80s hence the stop.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp28thjune.png

WaveSurfer wrote:
Yep - it is also still possible that the rise of the last few days was wave 2 up of 5 of C down. As remo says - the down channel is still controlling this.

You could see how the re-drawn channel is now acting as resistance.
This has to finish above that channel for real strength to come.
But the real area this has to finish above is 166.5 If this area gets taken out then back up to 190 area


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp26thjune.png

haha J - thought id posted the monthly chart yesterday ...

here's today updated ...





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/gkp_monthly_June13.JPG

Yes, could have been WS. Please forgive my cynicism

Yep - 158p is downtrend resistance and also the 4H RSI resistance from the bear div trendline:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...ts/GKP4H26_06_13.gif

Should drop back to c. 140/1p now but I have this as a probable trend-changing move now with a truncated 5 of C completed at 129.25p the other day.

Or just technical bounce after tl test and back test of previous breakout bar....157/8 feel the pressure

Someone in the know yesterday then was there? Tut tut! LOL!

RNS this morning could shift the price up.

A weekly close above 155.75p would give a bullish engulfing candle too - all the more important since last week was a bearish marubozu.

Is there a gap at 154p though?

Curiouser and curiouser...

as we draw nearer towards the end of the month, it's work keeping an eye on the monthly chart...

Monthly close abv of 157/8 is the area to watch should it get there will be positive & it will be 2 consecutive months of Green since sept 2012...

i wont go into the consequence should we break on a monthly basis of the previous lows, unless the candlestick has some significance.....

I've been watching the MACD for the past few months,

It certainly looks like it's now poised for a decent push north.

Just need to close above those key levels to set things off.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_upclose.JPG

still a few days to go till the end of the week, nevertheless nice bounce of TL & nice lookin candle so far....

Gkp is approaching an important level.
Theres 2 levels of support close together . this does not mean go long...
The trend line support is at 130.3(redrawn)
The main support line is at 126. This level is important as a finish below this and it opens up 87p target. This level is the horizontal support.Its been a strong support in the past on numerous occasions.May be worth a long for the brave at 126 on a first attempt basis. Use tight stops of 5 points so the risk is minimal.
The way the markets are behaving theres risk attached to the long side so be aware of that.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp24thjune.png


heres a long term chart view

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp24thjune1.png

The 126 level is also right near the channel support so if it does break you can then roughly count how low it can go. And its not that far from 87 so hence why 87 will be the logical target if GKP breaks past 126.
good luck in what ever you do
dyor

Here's the alternative weekly count:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...ly23_06_13count1.gif

The main problem we have is that these two main options present us with a very wide range of possible bottoms for this move.

In the above count, wave 5 of C could be truncated and end above 126p or be conventional and end below that price. Even then, it could be part of the wedge or not. The only thing we know from this count is that it must end at, or above, 87p.

Using WS' count (Primary wave 2 since the original 203p high), the low for this move could be any of the above or could even be below 87p.

The only thing we can do is wait for the bottom to form and go from there.

Updated weekly chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Weekly_22June13.JPG

Good call on the 137/8 Jackozy.

Key level 141p:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily21_06_13.gif

Will it hold?

Hi WS,

Yep - there's an active hourly P&F target (1% x 3) at 133.7p too which ties in nicely. Plus the original breakout point of 137.5p where some decent volume piled in last time round.

H&S on daily chart...dyor

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP%20Daily_20_june13.JPG






WaveSurfer wrote:

Update to daily chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...GKPdaily13_06_13.gif

Interesting close. 10k of trades took it up 2.5p to 155p 30 seconds before the close. Was someone trying to influence the day's candle on a weak volume day?

OBV isn't looking convincing. 4H chart has a short term downtrend from the 166p high at 161.5p today.

Yep - agree with that F4T. I don't buy into the 4H and hourly hammers either. Here's a 4H chart, though, with some interesting levels ahead if this is wave 5 of C:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...ts/GKP4H11_06_13.gif

Wave 3 of 5 of C target at 141p (blue 161.8% Fib extension), wave 4 target at 150p (blue 100% Fib and backtest of the wave 1 low) and then a final 5 of 5 of C down to the original breakout level at c. 135/137.5p.

Be nice if it went that way

The rise yesterday surprised me. No reason for it after the three outside down, which should have led to a continued retrace. We now have a cloud cover pattern that could conceivably become a bearish engulfing pattern. Very bearish.

This one is acting very strangely in recent days, though it seems to me that traders have decided that somewhere in the mid 150's is a good risk reward price.

More fun to come for sure.

F4T

Thanks for enlightening me: just saw a quick news flash on News Pro this morning.

diver993 wrote:
Unfortunately these reckless bombings happen nearly daily outside of Kurdistan.

40 km (25 miles) north of Baghdad where these recent bombs went off, it is not exactly Kurdistan where GKP is based..

After the deaths in Northern Iraq I'm rather surprised this held price for so long.

450k shares is not small change by any means.

If it was a genuine larger holder selling, or a market participant looking for maximum price impact for more sinister reasons it does not matter, as I guess it did the job of making a few of the more emotive holders break into a sweat no doubt..

It was just a few 100k market sell order with DMA wiping out a weak buy side. Not unexpected to see these levels.

Just goes to show what a beast GKP is, a 9p drop in a few seconds to 147 (29th May low) in a heartbeat with volume, looks like someone was fishing.

I'm seeing a H&S shoulder developing here - my chart just froze and restarting... failure to hold 154 (rising neckline 154 - 158) on a closing basis will see a H&S target of 141 - 146 area - depending which price level(neckline) it breaks from. if it takes out the highs then it get invalidated...

here a quick n dirty chart.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Pot...6S%20_GKP_11june.JPG

dyor.

WS

Looking ok..

Price now propped nicely above the SMA12 with the SMA30 slowly turning upwards...

Possible another attempt on 166p coming up?

Glad this has held so far to be honest, didn't fancy observing another low.

No, but I know a few if that helps. IMO one must try to emulate them though......

This subject can be a contentious issue

F4T
Amo wrote:

My concern is always extensions. The only sure fire way I've found is to wait for a five-way move in the opposite direction, effectively giving way until a re-test of the first wave back. It does require patience, but I'm sure, with your experience, you've had to exercise that many times in the past

Jackozy,

If this hits the 50 fib at 146 it will most likely be backtesting the RSI trendline, from which it recently broke out, at the same time. Does this seem a likely reversal point.

Ps cheers for the 'recent updates' tab

Okey dokey. Thanks for clarifying.

Are you thinking about the 5th wave retracements in case that wave is extended?

Jacko, the fib drawn on that chart is just for the 5th swing. The one for the overall move was the one containing the error and was deleted.
You are no doubt correct with the 146. My only interest is the uptrend continues:)

I'm using Chrome for this too but I still need links to the charts to be able to expand and read them clearly.

Anyway, thanks diver for putting up the link: www.dropbox.com/s/urdjykd4sliy1oj/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

In the above you seem to have drawn your Fibs in a strange place. Is this what you're referring to as being erroneous?

I'd have thought that the Fibs ought to be drawn from the 126.3p low to the 166p high, no?

It's been a crazy market these last few days so almost anything's possible but if this doesn't go to at least 146p then there's something wrong and I won't trust it.

We wait and watch but I think there has to be more downside yet. 151p doesn't do it for me.

Ok Remo, the only difference in this series of posts was...

The failures were generated by clicking the dropbox icon in the task bar which then shows the titles of the last three images posted to dropbox. To the side of the titles it says.....'Share Link' when the mouse hovers over the title. I'd never used this facility before, instead going to the folder and right-clicking the file icon to get the link. It doesn't work so I will revert to the tried and trusted method. The only reason I'm relaying all this garbage is because someone else may tell you there is a problem.

Having just read that back it sounds 'Irish' so best ignore me

I wonder?

my dropbox

Looks like a software glitch. Good job I put the external link in

hi diver
your previous chart expanded nicely on my computer...i use chrome

Let me try that again

Hi Jacko,



You seriously couldn't expand the chart? Do other members suffer in the same way? It should expand at the click of the mouse so I'm really surprised to hear this.
Here's an external link...
www.dropbox.com/s/urdjykd4sliy1oj/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

...... not that it's worth looking at: errors in the fibs! Well spotted! My apologies. Sometimes I look and don't see I had the fib for the overall move from 126.5 finishing two days early: plotted it previously and hadn't updated! Duh!

This is at a very crucial level just now, having retraced to the 61.8fib from the low at 126.5; and currently in the target zone between the 50 and 61.8fibs from the recent high at 166.0. I'm now waiting to see which way it breaks?

I purposely didn't put any detail in the labeling so as not to generate any argument as to what is, and is not, correct. As yet I see no evidence to confirm the current move is complete at five swings but time will tell. At the moment everything is as expected.

Any ideas when the court case decision is being announced?

Hi Diver,

I can't make out the detail on your chart as I can't expand it. A couple of things though...there was another apparent 5 wave sequence earlier on which resulted in the drop from 228p - it, too, had "perfect" impulse wave form with 61.8% and 38.2% retraces. It's in the highlighted area here:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP5waves.gif

The other thing is, were your Fib levels a typo? I have the 50 and 61.8% retracements of 126.3p to 166p as approx 146p and 141.5p respectively:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/GKP4H07_06_13.gif

So far, the 38.2% Fib has provided a bit of support so it may well hold at the 61.8% one rather than make a new low. We'll have to wait and see!

Cheers

Are you a pro mate?
Food4Thought wrote:

Hi Amo,

yes, always for the main trendlines. I overlay them on candlestick charts. I sometimes use the shadows for minor trendlines, but they are secondary and less effective.

IMO it is why the pro's make the money and the PI's make the change. I'll stop there....

Of course I use other indicators also, mostly fibs, MACD divergences, money flow and candlestick patterns.

F4T

Amo wrote: