Spot on!

Hi F4T, you could well be right.....and a surprise rally here, but i think in this market it's safety first. I just want to see more strength before i would be convinced....maybe it's just me
(These charts are from mid day yesterday)
The weekly seems to show failure at the 20 day ema.


The daily shows it failed (so far anyway) at two trendlines.


Could this be range bound for now?

Until we do get a higher high, maybe short into strength is still the right trade, but wdik..

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Haven't posted for a long time but have been successfully trading this in that period. It is interesting from a technical perspective, hence this post:




We had a nice inv H&S, the head being a higher low, so I was waiting for the left shoulder to develop (& RSI backtest), which it did nicely.
I have added some upper targets as follows, but expect a retrace first. At minimun a backtest of the neckline:

- inv H&S target of 114.50
- Elliot wave max target of 121
- 61.8% fib is conservative

As to the retrace:
1. backtest of neckline at 91 ish
2. gap close at 86
3. 50% retrace (from 106.60) at 88, which is nicely between the two

Weekly highlights recent divergences.





Should be some nice volatility this week with their production report on Thursday and annual results on 1st March.

F4T

Looks like a one day wonder to me tbh.
That's a short term trendline, needs to close above this and the 20 day(around 91/91.5p area) for push to 50 day sma.
close below, and back to the lows imho..... all miners and oilies look under pressure atm...but what do i know!
ATB...Regards,
trendfriend.

Is this now in an uptrend move?

Anybody watching this.

Bought back in yesterday....not too sure to exit or see if it breaks 99p resistance.

bear Flag, or new uptrend??? i don't know tbh....
Best left alone atm...

Just moved my stop to profit....
I would suggest doing the same folks...

Thanks again for the heads up Abu...

Well spotted adu - hope you took/are going to take a quick bit of profit out of that!

Yes saw that this morning abu. Also MACD divergence.
Copper bounced from an equal low this morning on the hourly with divergence. Needs to break TL at ~212.

Can't post hourly charts unfortunately.

F4T

Brilliant chart, and well spotted. I don't noramlly use hourly tbh..but looks ok to me for a scalp....
Keep a stop below that trendline, and move to profit on a rise imho...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Looking at Glencore what do the more experienced chartists think here. I see a break above the down trend line on the hourly and a divergence in the RSI. There is a doji on support with a green candlestick as the next one. The only thing stopping me buying this is that the FTSE is negative.




What does anyone thing buy or not?

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Q%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

this tried to rally early on today, but any hopes of a decent pullback quickly disappeared...
One more support left before the lows here, which look likely now...
the whole market looks shaky atm....

Trendfriend.

Well for what it's worth, we could be in for a mid term big down move in these markets....
I would be very careful with opening any longs positions atm.....
Looks like a big down day to start the week....

I would suggest that people follow 1) commodities and 2) Chinese industial indicators rather than the Glen charts. Those are the drivers here. GL

"however at some point this has has to stop going down...."

Careful, I'm sure that's what a lot of people said about GKP from around 350!

Stay safe!

Yep hard to argue against the post below.... this one is proving to be my very own nemesis here
This always seems to surprise, and it's notoriously difficult to call...when it looks bullish, it drops down, when you think it's bearish, up it goes.
I have a feeling this will be doing the same again.

Firstly short term.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...k%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN
You have supports below from F4T, overhead look for a break of the very short term trendline around 94p.... wait for 100p resistance to clear before going long(if one's brave enough!).

It's the long term weekly i find interesting here.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Y%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN
Every share(most anyway) has some technical feature it loves to respect... Glencore loves pennants..
Looks also how every pennant throughout it's history has broken downwards.... so it's always, a pennant consolidation followed by a move down... Note also how the pennants get smaller as the share price comes down....
Even now, this looks to be in a pennant imho....
Question is will it break down or up???
in all probability it will be down, if it does break down, wait for the RSI to hit 20 on the daily for long positions..
however at some point this has has to stop going down....a break below the pennant and this may well get dumped hard..
However i would not rule out a break up from the current pennant... weekly RSI is at support. it would not shock me to see a up break, and that may well signal the end of the down trend imho...

To some extent at least this is being driven by the big guys, at least imho.... they want to turn as many folks over as possible imho... by doing exactly the opposite to what would be logical...

Lets wait and see how this plays out this weeks before writing it off imho...
in summary, a surprise move up this week imho, at least to the top of the current overhead pennant(around 120p area)
I'am not suggesting rushing to go long here atm... in any case if does turn bullish, there's plenty of upside to catch here....just think imho this is the bottom being played out here...

Reagrds,
Trendfriend.

The charts are not bullish Luice. GLEN is driven by commodity pricing and the general markets which have both been falling and broken strong supports. One or both need to turn.

It is in the 61.8% fib area currently (below), so this is a key area.. Next support is a small gap at 83.39/83.70 then the low at 66.67 and finally trendline support at 59.50

Weekly is at support.

Copper has broken long term support

Hi F4T, Are you still bullish long term for Glen? I am long and a bit concerned.

Luice

Well, let's not get carried away The city always play where there is money to be made and they also use technicals (gosh).
The sp hovered at 97 for an eternity before continuing south as copper / commodities were still falling. 90 is just a psychological level to stop at.
Don't lose the faith!

TF please find my chart...
89.33p was price.. but not sure why it stopped a 90p
Not sure if to go long or stay out...
LLOY is also down today..

ta
G

Just taking a closer look at this after todays action....
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Z3Kn7EUXnSije4i0M%3D

Puzzled to see why this bounced from 90p....exactly 90p...not 89.65p 89.9p but exactly 90p!!
even more bizzare as this had no previous support at 90p, and worth noting this has hit 90p around midday, then rallied to 96p close, while the ftse continued to drop throughout the session....

this has been disrespecting technical's for some time imo....now i'm not one for conspiracy theories normally, but anyone else get a feeling this is being controlled by the big city boys.... be it MM's, big hedgie's i don't know....

what we do know is if the big boys are in control here, the whole price action could well be a fix!!(after all it's pretty rare to see a ftse100 stock, behaving like a AIM stock, right?)Technicals will be of limited use here... and this may well be best left alone short term at least imho....
S/R are pointless here imho.... maybe wait for a market turnaround...and a breakout or at least a reliable techincal buy signal before entering here...just my honest opinion..
Regards,
Trendfriend (a cheesed off glencore punter...lol)

Copper prices, after what looked like a rally yesterday have hit new 6 year lows. Glencore is also having problems laying off staff in Zambia copper mine. Bad press.

This is also popular due to its volatility. The city will ramp it up and down as good money to be made.

No bounce at gap surprised me. There is another small gap at 83! Not for the faint hearted.

F4T

My earlier buy was purely TA-based (well; as per my limited knowledge of TA!) thinking it would bounce off the gap. But then I watched the none-bounce and wondered non-TA-wise if the global commodities slowdown allied with $45 brent AND worries that there could soon be little or no meaningful equity left in GLEN owing to its debt burden weren't making it just too risky to hold in the short term.
It just tried a bounce off the 93s it hit on coming out of auction but even this doesn't look to have much legs. Maybe the gap is now more overhead resistance than support!

agree..

not sure why? being hit more than others and especially on the back of solid consolidation in the last few weeks.

I bought a few at 98.8 chief and sold them for 97.6 not long thereafter. Just doesn't seem to be much of an appetite for it. TF's 95.5 stop as per his post below already hit…..

Seems like a lot of dumping going on here so have closed my long..

sp96.38

yep gap has mostly been filled....

watch ftse, drop below 6250, and i think 6000 very quickly imho...
If going long here, keep stops tight....95 or 95.5p not below imho...

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...c%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

Regards
Trendfriend.

Thanks F4T.

Probably going against technicals... but gone long as gap has slowly been filled

Not convinced whether this will bounce well.. hey ho lets see how it goes.

Difficult to call still chief. Wanted to rise yesterday but failed. Spinning top (almost a doji) denotes some indecision. The only place I would consider shorting this is at 130.

Yes, RSI is in no mans land. Path of least resistance is down.

Well it did brake above the last support but didnt last.

Is the feeling still that this is an overriding long play?

I'm hoping to buy around the gap tomorrow morning if it gets there, though not 100 per cent convinced it will bounce from that area as the RSI has taken a bit of a nose dive on the daily.

If the above is totally b****x, pls ignore this post as i'm clearly a novice.

I see a relatively bullish day today and a break above last support. Whether it lasts is another matter. Either way IMO the 105/106 area is a pretty safe entry long term. Gap close at 96/99 would be safer for those not sure. GL

F4T

This broke below its sideways range today...
I actually thought this looked bullish.... but its been getting dumped, the last four candles look bad!
Since riding this up on the big rise... i have been stopped out here a few times since

The gap fill @ 97/99p looks a very likely possibility now..
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...o%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Agree that this is an overriding long play, not a short play as this is long term bullish IMO.

Positives for commodities are stimulus in China, negatives being strengthening dollar and no stimulus.

The unknown in this stock is the black box of trading and ability to reduce debt effectively.

Great for trading currently.

F4T

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...w%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

This retested the trendline... and i still think the set up is quite positive here imho...
Yes it could go down to 100p and the gap below around 90p, but it would take a real general market sell off for this go to those levels now....
it's in a range atm... look for break from that range for mid term direction imho...
in the mean time buy the dips??
would'nt recommend shorting this now... the time to short was when this was 300/400p + imho...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Key support is at 106.21 Didn't quite make it this week. If this goes then should see a test of 100 and gap comes closer into play.50% fib of rise from lows is at 103ish and 61.8% fib is almost exactly at gap close which is very neat.

RSI broken below resistance line again. Short term RSI support broken yesterday.

Extent of dollar rise in view of fed tightening will be interesting as this puts commodities under pressure.

On the upside, aside from the SMA's, a break of 130 will take us rapidly to 140. A break of that will leave the lows behind for good IMO.

In summary key numbers are 106 and 130 with the range in between nicely tradeable.

I can see why TF is bullish as this range has consolidated the initial rise comfortably, but it is dangerous to hang on doggedly to an idea when the charts say otherwise.

Don't have my proper charts with me so numbers approximate.

PS: Nice bear pennant on the hourly on Friday.

Has the RSI broken the trendline support? i think it may have, and also closed below the 20 day SMA?

Would this indicate further indecision and possibly a further reversal as F4T stated earlier.

I was tempted to go short on for short term trades at 129, 123, and 118 over the last few days, but bottled it and just watched it go down. Mind you i did manage to trade it going up for 3 points at time.

would welcome views from resident experts..

A drop here cannot be ruled out...i did point out the downtrend has not been broken up yet.... so rallies could well get sold off..that is possible...

However i'm quite optimistic here for a bull run...
I make the rsi to have broken out of the resistance...(although it could turn back below intraday off course)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ssU=&symbol=L%5EGENL
I like that trendline break, and the move above the moving ave's... stops should be placed below that level imho..
I also think this trying to break out of inverted head and shoulders...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...g%3D&symbol=L%5EGENL
I would appreciate Remo, and others looking at that, and confirm if that is a correct h/s please??

Lets see how plays out... i think its geared for a higer move, but lets see..

Regards,
Trendfriend.

My 13/10 post still stands on this in terms of target. Doji yesterday and RSI resistance warns of potential reverse.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...g%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

Remo is right, this has been moving sideways recently.... and i'm looking to buy here as well...lol..
Been keeping an eye on this as well... since getting stopped out last week...

I think it broke above two important levels today the 50 day sma(at the third attempt), the close above that level is important imho....and the short term trendline
As long as this opens up tomorrow i intend to go long, with my stops a couple of pence below the 50 day...
Just remember if your long here... this is still in a down trend, until(and if) we get the 1,2 3 low @ 139.70.
So every chance rallies could well get sold off imho...so to try protect capital and as much profits as possible with stops imho...
This could now be positioned to attack that 139.70p... keep a eye on the volume to confirm it's the real deal imho...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Supports...106,,,95(gap),,,66
Resistance...128,,,139.7,,,152.4,,,158.5(gap)

The green light for this share comes once the 123 low gets broken at 139.7.
This is currently moving sideways so looks good for a 123 low breakout soon. A good level to go long on this would be any move to 95 area as thats the gap support.Stops then would be placed below the low.
Im tempted to buy into this for the long term


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/glen2ndnov2015.png

Been watching this on a daily basis bouncing off 107/8 to 112 to 114 over the last week.

Took the plunge last week and bought at 112, a little higher than I would have liked.

Not too sure which way this will go, closed above 20 day ema which was at 114.75

Any ideas?

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...E%3D&symbol=L%5EGLEN

Stopped out here this morning...
Seems to be bouncing now, but its below the 20 day ema and triangle support line....
So the chart says it should move down... not going to chase this anymore...
see where it is in a few days...

Regards,
Trendfreind.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4%3D&symbol=L%5EGENL

This just about held on the traingle formation, the support trendline on the triangle is also where the 20 day ema is atm...
So held above both, i think this bullish... so i'm long... although it's pretty much against the trend atm..
My stop below the triangle and 20 day @ 111p

Regards,
Trendfriend.

This chart is really intersting imho...
A few things in play here...

This is in this triangle formation atm, which is coming to the end...
Break up, bullish, down bearish..
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...D&symbol=FX%5EGBPUSD

Could also be a inverted head and shoulders developing...a breakout is a strong reversal signal imho..
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...0%3D&symbol=L%5EGENL

The neckline's in the low 150's so some way to go for a breakout imho..


This needs to hold the 20 day moving average to be bullish imho.... below this will some lower targets in play...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

This looks like forming a 123 low formation??, early entry could be done at a close above 116 but would have to use tight stops.Main entry comes in at a close above 140.
Im looking to go long if the gap fills at 95 with tight stops.This is only for a first attempt only.
so 2 possible areas to watch.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/glen22ndoct2015.png

Thanks for the chart TF, and yes you are quite right, amazing how it bounces when rsi hits 20.

Seems like a guaranteed banker next time it gets close to it.

I was fortunate to by at 67 when it got to that level, but sold out way to early, only to get back in again at 112p and again sell out too early.

Just getting to back to trading, after a year or so out..

Well a profit is profit.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...MlGkVAJvPchf%2F1k%3D
Taking a closer at Glen again today.. since i have done this chart this has moved below the important 20 day moving average.. and that's not good lets see how it closes..

What i was looking for on the chart today is which technical's in the past this really respects ...
It likes the moving averages, both ways, get above we get a move higher, get below, this gets dumped lower.
However look at the RSI on the chart.. look how many time sine Jan 15 this has hit the 20 Level on the RSI..
(shown by the arrows on the chart) i make it 6 times since Jan!! and when it does that we get a bounce from the the share price...
Chances are it will be 7 in due course...
By the time the RSI makes its way to 20 (still above 40 atm)... its very possible we could get a new low here...or at least a significant down move imho....

this could of course bounce before hand, but the outlook looks bearish to me imho... and certainly no buy signals i can see atm..
so its risky to take a position especially with the volatility and big gap downs, like we saw with Genel today for example...
I'm gonna be patient here and wait for that RSI...
After all trading is nothing more than a transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient
Regards,
Trendfriend.

www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/articl...dity-price-drop.html

Thanks Guys,

Heres wishing the gap gets filled... tomorrow would be a good day judging by the trend today.