Andrew2013 wrote:
Hi Andrew,

I'm not sure where it is heading - hopefully upwards. I entered at 172p exactly (inspired by the chat-room patrons on 24/1), banked some of the profits (it was a massive CfD, so needed to realise the "fish 'n' chip" money); I have since adjusted the stop-loss accordingly.

Personally (and this isn't trading advice!), I'm of the view that we've hit the bottom, but we'll never really know until we do (if that makes any sense!).



This is a difficult share to trade, especially after the ENRC situation - Can anyone say what the float is? Technical Analysis is becoming harder due to questionable actions and Central Banking interference, but that's a collegial argument for another time I suspect!

For now, I think we'll get a clearer picture after reporting - which I think will be on Thursday? (happy to be corrected!)

Good luck in what ever you decide!

Hi remo and others, would be very interested to hear your views on kaz have gone long at 1.75 and 1.72 , didn't quite get 1.71 but may that have been the bottom for now ?

Regards

Here's a monthly Chart of KAZ...



The intra-day low was 170.7 back in 2008...


According to my Reuters platform, the closing low was on 20-Nov-2008, and the price was 173.8p (not that I'm quibbling over a few pence).


Not sure if there's any saving grace other than pointing out that the volume has been relatively low. Comparing a stand out high volume day (31-05-13) to today's volume, you'll see nearly a 95% drop (i.e. 15m versus 1m today).


Not a good couple of years for the miners in general, but KAZ (and POG, albeit for different reasons) really takes the biscuit.


On a personal note, this is a killer share - in every sense of the word. I enjoyed some terrific gains when I traded this on the way up from 2008 onwards, but I've surrendered some cash when I entered it around the £2+ mark too at the end of 2013. It is tough one.

(How the mighty have fallen eh?)

Remo, et al. you might get that entry point this morning, with most large Aussie miners down today after HSBC flash PMI below 50, needs a tight stop as you highlight on first attempt.

POG November 2008 closing low £1.93, now 72p
KAZ November 208 closing low £1.79, now £1.79
Both using a long-term chart, but yours is more accurate.

FRES breaking the 61.8% retrace of £8.66 from November 2008 lows, now £7.54

It surely doesn't feel the same as November 2008, when I entered KAZ at 181, when FTSE was up and down 9% daily (general market news (noise) was very bad), however, there can be a Chinese New Year bounce (but not every year) in the most used base metal copper, after the golden week of celebrations as Chinese Government allow more buying at the start of a new financial year.

Year of the Horse, make sure you back a thorough bred and not some old nag this year!

Gong Xi Fa Cai, as they say here in George Town, Penang, unfortunately the celebrations go on here for weeks (Chinese reunion diner Thursday 30th January, Friday 31st January Chinese New Year Day and Jingle Bells in Chinese everywhere in supermarkets and Malls in addition to the old favourites) and here in particular on the 8th day fireworks from 8pm to 4am, non-stop sounds like a war zone but looks good (this is to celebrate Hokkien Chinese (Fujisan Province) escaping a massacre by the Han Chinese.

This is approaching the double bottom zone.
If this hits 171 area then well worth a long as this area should be strong support.
Stops can be tight. Im using a 5 point stop as this level should be strong support.
This is a first attempt trade.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/kaz22ndjan2014.png


If this level gets broken then this share has the potential to become a penny share so be careful. Hence the tight stops

A chart for Kaz, a good time to buy for the longer term??
Off course this could just keep going down!!

Just wanted the opinions of C/View experts.

Here my chart and link below.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...EZOA=&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Good luck all,
regs,
Trendfriend.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/KAZAKHMYSwkly.png

Jackozy, if you take a look at the weekly chart I reckon it just about hit the target perfectly. Ok, so we can disagree on the coding but, the balance and maths look about right, and a breach of 228 will get my money.

Thanks for posting and reminding me cos I'd forgotten about this one

Keep an eye on KAZ this coming week. It's had an initial rise after a bullish RSI divergence so it's possible it may have bottomed out (gold is also looking bullish).

Just in case it hasn't bottomed at 187.9 - it fell short of the 171p target - it'll be best to wait and see if it makes a higher low near the 203p area (the Dec 18 high) and then buy the breakout of 221.2p if it occurs:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KAZdaily05_01_14.png

With spot gold nearing the target of 1151 it's worth pointing out that KAZ is also nearing it's 2008 low of 170.6, currently at 190, so maybe worth a long at or near that level.

One to watch for sure. Sorry no charts this evening.

I'm back in.



RSI below 30 (not quite in the low 20s), and a nice hammer forming, in spite of firming Dollar Index.

Bigger picture indicated falling inventories too, but that's for another time

www.copperenews.com/copper-warehouse-stocks.asp



As always, happy to receive feedback.


p.s. Can we re-name this thread KAZ (not every post is a 123 bounce! ) Cheers!

Back on the radar....

ADX elevated, RSI bounced, Volume is up...

A hammer a couple of sessions ago too perhaps?





Feedback welcome, and please folks, DYOR.

This is the first time since jan its gone above the cloud. This is bullish.

KAZ looks like its above the cloud. It's the first time since feb
Away from computer so will load chart up latter

Free trade
Broke out nicely

Price could be breaking out of its trading range??? Obviously it needs to stay above 286.

Vote will be this Friday 2nd August by minority shareholders

www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8994102a-f384-11...0.html#axzz2aao1foqv

Hanif wrote:
hi Hanif
its always dangerous to try and trade a share that's in a take over.Its best to wait and see how the price acts after the take over for a few months.This way you can see the price develop via the charts.

Does anyone have any advice on trading KAZ, post the ENRC takeover? Thanks.

Not one for me at the moment(still on the watchlist), waiting for the dust to settle, KAZ government 26% stake of KAZ will be reduced to nil as far as I can see? New production facilities to come on line 2014/15 to increase production (300,000 tonnes of copper last year)by 50%, should be in time for the start of global growth 2016/17? Will go back into FTSE 100 sometime I guess with the urbanisation around the world set to continue (If all countries to have USA standard of living, we need 4.5 world's, so all resources will continue to be scarce as property and infrastructure will increase as populations grow especially in younger countries. Maybe ANTO will perform better at next up trend than KAZ as in FTSE 100?

More efficient and II supported FRES also on watchlist in preference to badly beat-up POG and KAZ, but FRES bounced off the 61.8% retracement level I think(2150p - 105p)= 886p, FRES picked up by Remo I think on a 1-2-3 low post recently, but could be a short term bounce?,will metals contiune to fall or will China be forced to buy if 6% GDP is breached, is US recovery robust? will EU as a whole go into a deeper recession? The main trends are still down on global growth as per recent IMF growth revisions, that's without geo-political turmoil. For really bad view see part 2 of the crisis:-

www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-A...n-social_a14266.html

But very EU/French biased, anti UK/US viewpoint (ONLY ONE CHART).


Will KAZ double bottom at 233p or go below 179p (November 2008). I remember those volatile times in 2008, with FTSE up and down 9% and KAZ up and down 27% on the same day, as a new investor/gambler my wife saying sell at 27% up, but waited 2 weeks to sell at 25% up from a 181p entry, only small wager to start and kept to KAZ only for 6 months. Left FTSE 100 KAZ for AIM, GKP being the only hold at present, but learnt a lot since those days, money management (the hard way), entry and exit (getting better), etc. Not a trader (wish I was for currencies though)and don't need to trade for an income, but sitting mainly on cash waiting for the bottom in commodity stocks and looking out for the next growth stocks to move into after the initial commodity stock spikes.

LYC.AX I've been watching fall for 2 years now on REE basket price fall, should be good for 1000% in next secular bull market (2016/17? to 2025?) after the approaching crash. Last secular bull market 1990 to 2000, top growth share was Cisco Systems 13,000% odd increase, so 1000% for LYC.AX may not be unrealistic?, just about to start production of rare earths with Japanese orders to fill (a commodity stock and a technology stock as used in many high tech products).

KAZ billionaire Vladimir Kim (247th richest 3.7bn US$)has done very well, selling 11% of KAZ(1.3bn US$ worth of stock)to KAZ government in October 2010, increasing their stake from 15% to 26%, but Kim still retains 28% of KAZ I think. When he sells the rest, may be a good time to do the same and move on from KAZ, I wonder who'll buy from him again?

2020's to 2030's meant to be another world war according to another trends analyst, so maybe to coincide with stock market top in 2025?(+/- a year owing to global events). DOW 38,820 by 2025:-

money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post...00-dd99-1b0000000000

Hi Wreckless Eric,

As I posted on iii:

Surely, there's an arbitrage trade to be had - considering ENRC's current share price - should the takeover be successful.

How the might have fallen eh? When I first purchased a tranch of KAZ, it was a few years back, and they were around 200p (around the big crash).

Then they increased some 6/7 fold, and I never thought for a second and in the absence of a 2009 crash, that they'd fall back to the 200 odd range.

A shameful display by the BoD or just bad luck?

...........................

I honestly don't know where the mininng companies are heading. I own shares in 4 of them (GLEN, ANTO, POG - late entrant thankfully! - and KAZ in ISAs etc...), and really but for trading CfDs on the side to compensate, I would otherwise be apoplectic at their dire performance.

1.02pm RNS KAZ General Meeting 2nd August.

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN OR INTO ANY RESTRICTED JURISDICTIONS OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

12 July 2013

Kazakhmys PLC (“Kazakhmys” or the “Company”)

SHAREHOLDER CIRCULAR AND NOTICE OF GENERAL MEETING

Further to the Company’s announcement made on 24 June 2013 relating to the announcement by Eurasian Resources Group B.V. (“Eurasian Resources”) of its firm intention to make an offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (“ENRC”) (other than the ENRC shares already held by Eurasian Resources) (the “Takeover Offer”) and the proposed disposal of the 334,824,860 ENRC ordinary shares held by the Kazakhmys group pursuant to the Takeover Offer and the related repurchase of the 77,041,147 Kazakhmys shares from Eurasian Resources by the Company (the “Transaction”), Kazakhmys announces that the Shareholder Circular including Notice of General Meeting regarding the Transaction and other connected matters is being posted to shareholders today.

The General Meeting will be held at the offices of Linklaters LLP, One Silk Street, London EC2Y 8HQ, United Kingdom at 9.00 a.m. (UK time) on 2 August 2013.

In accordance with LR 9.6.1, Kazakhmys has submitted the following documents to the National Storage Mechanism which will shortly be available for inspection at www.hemscott.com/nsm.do:

- the Shareholder Circular including Notice of General Meeting; and

- Form of Proxy relating to the General Meeting.

The Shareholder Circular including the Notice of General Meeting is available at www.kazakhmys.com

From the chart below you can see
The importance of the 123 low...
you can see clearly from the chart
how you would not have entered based on the 123 low
until yesterday. So basically you would not have caught
a falling knife as such. its clear to see the importance of
this simple method.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/kaz2ndjuly.png

You would have been out of this share from the highs at 800+ until now .
This does not mean this trade is going to win You could still lose but the risks are less now than before.For shares to go higher it needs the first higher high as such. Maybe we have this?? only time will tell. Thats why the stops are very important in trading.Anyone that says dont use stops is not a trader but a gambler. once get bailed out with a stop attached you will know the meaning of emotions There aint any when you have stops attached. without it ,you would be emotionally attached.

so ill be closing one contract down when it hits 291 then the rest to break even.
If you have been following my trades then you would hear me saying a free trade regularly. Thats when i moved all my stops to breakeven and have taken profits.
I dont care about the long term trade as im a short term trader. I try and milk as much as i can from a trade.

Hi libero
My exit play once I enter a trade on a 123 low is to put the stop below the 2 point . This way I know the risk and it's more or less controlled.
With regards to closing a trade that's gone to profit.....3 contract rule resolves this issue for me.
Exiting a trade is by far the hardest part about trading. The greed factor is what makes people lose a winning trade. The 3 contract rule nullifys this to some degree. Look to close 1 contract down at the next resistance level then move your stops to break even.
The downside to this is ,you may get closed out more than you would like with only a little profit but if your trading regularly then it's not a big deal
Keep it simple .

Eric,

Aye, and what's worrying is that most miners seem to suffer from debt as part of their depressed asset price! Clearly, there's not a real recovery going on, otherwise, why the slump in copper et al!

Remo,

Thank you for the heads up, I do lovvvve the 1-2-3; but entry is less of a problem these days, and its to do with exiting a trade that forever presents me a headache - I know greed is a factor! but that aside, what is your exit strategy with regards to this KAZ play? (if you don't mind!)

Cheers!

Possible 123 low formation????

---

Copper up this morning on China news as with other metals.

Caution:-

KAZ £000M's write down of 26% ownership of ENRC to hit the wires sometime if ENRC t/o goes ahead (taken private by original founders)with increased KAZ shs on the market as part of the deal, very volatile, stops needed.See recent ENRC & KAZ RNS's (SFO investigation of ENRC) and KAZ government very infleuntial in both companies.

233p double bottom or will the 179p 2009 low hold?

Longer term with new production(+50%)coming on stream 2015 I think and global growth (back to FTSE 100 for KAZ?).

Short term trading, up 20% odd for some over the last few days,

Still waiting for more bad news first, probably too much emphasis on fundamentals on my part.

Possible 123 low formation????
Im long on this with my stops below the 2 point
This is the first higher high this has had for a long time.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/kaz1stjuly.png

Long @ 347 (Inside Bar)
SL below 328 low of candle before the IB ( its also 3 of a potential 123 low)

This is in a strong downtrend & this trade is only a short term trade. I will move SL above B/E very quickly as soon as it goes in my favour.

Hi g gok
Yep as there ain't any real supports if I remember correctly until that zone...

Hi Remo
I just looked at the weekly for Kaz. Did you suggest 175 because that is the 2009 low. Cause I have looked for some pattern and cannot see any. So if it closes below 292, you are suggesting 175?

rt0.e.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/dis...k1t&type=png&purpose

Thanks

Gee

Hi Remo
Out of interest how do you work out the 175 target if the 123 low fails? Cant see the pattern that leads to the target
Thanks
G

hi paitech
This is still in the down trend and the 123 low i was on about may be void soon as its almost below the recent low.
If this goes below 337 then this opens up 175 and the 123 low would be void.

Its at 340p, now.. and if u refer master remo charts... in intereting charts, this seems to be a good one to go long with stop loss.

ta
G