Not much to add from earlier discussion except to point out the big drop in volume and narrowing range of daily price movement. These both suggest a move is coming (the Bollinger Bands are also fairly narrow which suggests the same).While 147/8p has been a subborn support, the main target areas (should it drop) are all around the same general support area. There's the short term uptrend formed by the 126.3p low and the higher low which followed, the original breakout point of 137.5p, the 61.8% Fib at 141p and the 78.6% Fib at 134.75p. That's 4 support areas all pretty close together. Should they fail, the uptrend support which caused the bounce from 126p is now at 127.25p as next support.On the upside, the main number to break now is that (re-drawn) down channel resistance at 160p then the 166p recent high. Original link...

Well, this is how it goes in trading sometimes - you watch and wait for a target and get caught out and miss the move. No problem, that's the game but well done to everyone who gained on this in the last 2 days.My target was the 38-42p area - the 61.8% Fib - based on there having been an apparent 5 waves up plus further support at that level. I have no idea whether there's been any news or not but I won't be entering this now.It'll be interesting to see how this plays out now as today's action closed back bang on the downtrend resistance (it's not got enough price history for any level to be really important) having broken out but this whole pattern looks worrying to me. I think it needs to make significant new highs to avoid a very bearish formation here but I've already...

I had the Dow Jones in a wave 4 pattern and posted that it may have ended at the 14844 low. I've changed my mind on this and now think we're in wave B of 4. I'll be looking to go short at 15409 if it gets there today. If not the target price will drop for tomorrow's cash chart. I'll have stops in place of course.Wave 4s do usually cause this confusion as they're the main battle area between bulls and bears hence the violent moves and uncertainty.Remember, index trades carry a great deal of risk unless managed very carefully. Leverage is high and the Dow can move 100s of points in less than an hour someti Original link...

Following on from the comments on the last post, I thought it would be a good idea to have a reminder of the 2 main wave options going forward. Most of the recent discussion has focused on short term, small-ish price movement possibilities so some context might be good.I've done both of these charts in log scale which shows percentage change rather than pure price change. This is so that we can see the relative size of waves of same and varying degree.The first chart above shows the possibility of the whole post-203p move as being a running flat. These are rare and feature a wave B which ends substantially above the starting point of wave A and C ends above the end of A. They occur in exceptionally strong trends but even then there are very few examples of them.The far more common type of flat correction where wave...

On Friday I wrote a piece on www.chartsview.co.uk illustrating the two main possibilities for SLE now it appears to have bounced off the gap up from a few weeks ago.Here we have the bullish option where we've just had the end of a wave 2 (ie a higher low). This should result in a move up towards the recent 8.5p high (in 5 mini sub-waves) followed by a 50-60% retrace and then a breakout to new highs substantially above 8.5p. I've actually started to doubt this option due the the wedge shape on the last rise (a bear pennant), the fact that it's dropped back below the old downtrend resistance (causing a false breakout) and the apparent 5 wave move down from 8.5p to Thursday's low. The bearish option is as follows: In this case SLE ought to be due a bounce anyway after forming a 5 wave pattern down....