Friday saw a perfect test of the price downtrend from the 260p high but the SP remained bullish and closed such that there was also an RSI trendline breakout. This is significant because that RSI trendline is the one from the 450p high so I remain bullish here despite Friday's and Saturday's disappointing events with M&G.That's not to say that an RSI breakout results only in upward price movement. Look at the lower RSI trendline on the attached chart. The RSI breakout occurred a day before the big price move but the higher low at 129.25p came on a perfect backtest of that RSI trendline so at some point I'd expect a similar backtest of the latest RSI trendline during a retrace.Of course, there's also the possibility that this could be a false RSI breakout - we need price to follow through in the next day or two.In the short...

As ever, I'll try and keep the emotive issues of fundamentals out of this but it's hard to do these days!We start with the daily chart which shows a failure of the main RSI downtrend breakout and a crash through both the 166p and 158p supports. I've highlighted here the possibility of a drop to the 61.8% Fib which would also be a backtest of the previous trendline break and also at the previous support/resistance level of 147/9p. There are other possibilities which are best viewed on the hourly charts.  Two ways to view this chart: one is with the bullish wave count I've annotated it with which shows the SP hitting support at the 50% Fib of the whole move or the 61.8% Fib of the move referred to by Ian in the previous comments. (Note also the circled Fib which was referred to on the daily chart)The other...

Tonight I thought we'd take a different view and look at the daily cloud chart because there have been some interesting developments lately. For more information on cloud, or Ichimoku, charts please click here. If we look to the left of the chart we can see how prices dropped below the cloud then re-entered and tested the top of the cloud from the inside. This is a classic resistance test and the breakdown was confirmed by prices dropping straight back down out of the cloud followed by the blue lagging line. This is textbook Ichimoku charting for a downtrend confirmation.The last few days, however, and seen an exact (in fact even better) reverse event. Price broke up through the cloud to the 180p high, re-entered the cloud to test the support at the base and then popped straight back up out of the cloud. In addition (and this is what makes...

Caveat and disclaimer first: This post is purely specualtive, based on EWT (with a bit of adjustment for key levels) and none of the levels may actually generate the projected action shown. In addition there has been no attempt to accurately portray timescales for these possible moves. This is merely to illustrate what could happen if theory plays out. It's also subject to a close and hold above 180p and conditional on not going below 151.25p beforehand.Also, wave 2 should be at 138.5p but because this is a weekly chart that detail has been lost. The same applies to the 230p gap which remains on the daily chart.What I've done here is to plot the horizontal blue lines of price resistance. These are at 218p, 230p and 260p. There are also resistances at 189p and, of course, 180p. Then I've plotted the Fib extension for (circled) wave iii. This is...

Just a quick update tonight as there are quite a few other good looking shares out there at the moment, particularly amongst the gold miner sector.For the second day running the price closed bang on the downtrend form the 260p high thereby continuing the uncertainty about the immediate future direction of the price.I'll be looking for the 169p area to hold if there is a further retrace. If it doesn't (and particularly if 166p goes again) then it's likely that the bear case will take control. It did put on 33p in a week and nearly 50% since the 126p low so it's unsurprising that there's been some profit taking here. Original link...