The last 3 post shows the Perfect example of a first attempt trade and why its important not to attempt a second attempt on the same day.
The dow smashed through the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb20142.png

Free trade..
Dont short at the same level again as the first attempt worked perfectly.
To dangerous on the second attempt


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2011.png

Tactical short possible???
Im going to short the dow on a first attempt of 15703 with a 40 point stop.
This level was the breakout point.
This is for a quick day trade so only for the watchers.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thfeb2014.png

If you consider corrective waves come in sequences of 3,7,11,15,19 etc; this current sequence contains only 5 waves so far, meaning at least 2 more to come?.....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...Cash%20%28day%29.png
I've drawn a trend line from the start of wave (( c )) at 10,402.20, and it coincides nicely with the supports around 14,760 > 14716. So, it's down for me

Possible short on that back test of that trend line is a good bet for the short term
That trend line tried to give it support but the fact that it did not bounce fast from that area was the signal that there were a lot of bears trying to push this lower.The first attempts normally would bounce hard and fast so once this gets tested and it does not bounce fast then that normally gives the first warning signals to get out .First attempts if good should bounce hard .
I have that trend line back test at 15518 for today and a 40 point stop should be used.
stops are a must on the dow.
There is another method i use to enter on short or longs..If the candle is a massive bearish candle like yesterdays candle then i would look to short on any pull backs on the following day if the price comes half way up that bearish candle. This level for today is roughly at 15532 so adds to the trendline play as well.
good luck



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thfeb2014.png

Jackozy wrote:

Yep - it tried for about an hour to hang on to that trendline at 15514 but the re-surfacing of a possible US debt default put paid to that.

Possible short on backtest of that trendline, or wait for an hourly 123-low to go long for a Major wave B bounce (I'm now re-labelling 16588 as Primary III as it's hard to see it as anything else now).

14720 must hold for P IV low to maintain the wave 4 guideline (not a rule) and there are multiple supports for about 400 pts above that so hard to know which will give the bounce.

I agree sidelines is best unless you're a skilled Dow trader.

That backtest of the 16240 break would have been a great place to short!

Well I didn't see yesterday's move coming. I'm not surprised as there are so many options here. What happens now? Only time will tell. I have it at, roughly, the 23.6% fib, so it could go back up from here or it could continue down to the support in the 14,700's. I'll be sitting on the side-lines and watching.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Here's a daily chart of the Dow with a possible wave count showing plenty more upside yet to come if it's right:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily02_02_14.png

The trendline is at 15514-ish and that coincides with the 23.6% Fib of what I've labelled as Major wave 3 (of Primary III) which comes into play quite often in Dow wave 4s. Also 15518-522 has been a support and resistance on a number of times recently so plenty of support around this level.

There's a lot of talk about this drop being the start of Primary wave IV, which is a possibility of course, but there would still need to be a Major wave B of that and it would likely have to stay above 14719 ultimately anyway so this drop seems a bit too much too quickly to be Major A of Primary IV to me.

This trendline test will be key.

As most know i dont do re-entry on a second attempt of a support so soon after. This is dangerous ..

The best level now is to wait for the medium term trend line to be tested currently at 15505. This is where ill be going long on a first attempt basis.If 15703 gets broken the index may fall hard fast so there is a shorting opportunity for the brave on a breach of that level.Due to its support nature it may swing fast both ways so be careful.
There is an inside bar on the dow currently so a break below 15703 will activate this as well so extra bearish
For any new long positions wait for a 123 low to form on the hourly if the trend line does not give the chance.
If you look at the chart you can also see a head and shoulders forming. Some thing else to consider if we go back up from these areas.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjan2014.png

im expecting the dow to head towards the medium term trend line.

This is a possible scenario for the DOW.....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

..... if, and I mean if, this is a wave 3, then it only retraced a little over 14.60% of the move from 11,150 to 16594. Now, whilst this doesn't invalid the move as a wave 3, it would be more usual for the retrace to be somewhere between the 23.60 and 38.20% of said move. If this should be the case there is the possibility the move down to 15706.90 was just wave A of an ABC, with the target for a wave C between 15,287 and 14,739, being the respective %'s already mentioned.

The possibility remains this is not a wave 4, and this is not a five way move, but an ABC with the A finishing at 16,241; the B at 16,550; and the C at last evenings low of 15,706.90. This being the case ignore this chart: it's a pile of rubbish

However, if this turns back down between 16,151 and 16,255 , then hold onto your hats as it could fall to somewhere between 15,310 and 14,515..... a zigzag 5-3-5 swings, might bring us to the supports at 14,763 and 14,717. I favour this scenario but would be very happy to be proved wrong

Missed by 2 points...feeling gutted again....why 2 pips...why.....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow29thjan2014.png


The first attempt trade has happened as it was only 2 points away so now its best to leave the trade alone.

With the upcoming Fed Meeting, tonight could be the night for this trade:



I'm in if it hits 15,703.79 or thereabouts (at the mercy of IG Markets).

Here's hoping for the same result as the previous trade (at 16,174.51); Fish 'n' Chips never tasted so good that evening!

Good luck all!

Patients is required with this index and you should not over trade this.
If you only trade at key areas then better chance of success with the dow


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow25thjan2014.png

This is approaching strong support at 15704. Ill be going long during market hours only with a 40 point stop.This is a first attempt trade only.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...Cash%20%284hr%29.png

For the scalpers; a possible long coming.
This is my 4hr chart and there is a chance this may turn at 15,830ish and retrace to the 16,060 area to form wave (iv) of (( c )).
This is just my view so please DYOR.....

Like yourself Remo, I'm watching this one...

Back to Jan 17, my position was set at 16,174.51, but hey, I'll take 16,175 too!

Now, it is just a question of will it "come to daddy". A caveat however: if the velocity of the decline is too powerful, then surely 40 pts won't be sufficient, or the other side might suggest a deeper correction.

Possible long coming.
Im looking to go long during market hours only at 16175 .
This is a first attempt trade and is the level where the dow broke out from.
Im using a 40 point stop.
stops are a must


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow23rdjan2014.png

My take on the DOW. These are Daily charts and they cover quite a large date range so they are split into two views; the C wave being the latter view; the B wave being the earlier view....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWwaveC.png

....to be clear, I'm not saying the pullback will occur now, merely that it is due and I would expect it to be around 23.6% of wave ((iii)). If this is the start of the pullback then I would expect it to finish around 15300.

This is the earlier view of wave B around the 2009 dip...


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWwaveB.png

This is just my view and my way of labeling, which I know not everyone agrees with, so DYOR...

here you go.

1hr



10min

Can someone please post an hourly cash chart (not futures) of Dow from the 240 recent low?

TIA.

Just a quick take on "buying the DOW dips".

If it plays out, I'd consider entering at 16,174.51.




(just don't hold on for too long as a counter retail trade could be on its way!)

Wishing all CV patrons all the best!

Those who regularly frequent the chatroom will know that Wavesurfer is the master of this index (and remo, obviously!) but I think it's worth looking out for a break of the short term resistance of the flag during market hours on Monday which will be at the 16540 level.

Note that there was also an inside bar on Friday and that would suggest upside above 16525 and downside below 16379 (which was also the 23.6% Fib which comes into play a lot on this):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily12_01_14.png

Remember your stops.

Dow yearly updated chart, perfecto !




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow%20Yearly13.JPG


WS

Your welcome, this my favourite index and u know how I trade this daily, both ways. This my bread n butter and hardly trade stock but a few. I have no doubt whatsoever we will see the targets, even ftse abv 6648 is extremely bullis, 7000 is not out of the question.

What I look forward to most, is the top callers coming in with abc bs from lows. Building a top is process, bottoms are an event, 2014-2016 im will be a top building process, a bit like playing jenga. The higher u build the blocks the more caution u apply...

Short term Dow can push up some more but a pullback is imminent and one that will be bought for a parabola move up, this move witness so far is only the beginning....16200 area is key to watch.

Extremely excited for 2014, and will be switching hats from bull to bear short term... Perhaps the mantra will be sell equities n buy gold short term. Bond 30 year t bills look juicy too. More of this when time is right.

All the best ws

Thanks for sharing that WS.

I've got a slightly alternative count for your more bullish scenario:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly29_12_13.png

Only difference is how I've interpreted the recent sideways waves but very similar nonetheless.

I came to this count having completely started from scratch by looking at the monthly chart after quite a while of not reviewing counts at all so it's as objective as I can be. My alt count is your primary one so caution suggests follow that for now and see where we go.

The 100% extension of Primary I comes in at 16795 but SPX smashed that recently (1778) and the successful backtest of it caused last week's massive candle.

Incidentally (and I don't think this will actually happen but you never know!), the 161.8% extension of Primary I comes in at 20769....

Happy New Year everyone!

Its been a while since i posted an update on Dow, was not much to say really apart from providing day to day views on Chat, my view has always been up up n away and not much has changed since my last post(s).

So as we end 2013 and enter 2014, what's in store for this market ? do i hear/see a bubble expanding and substantial new highs to come ? The Bull market extends 2015/2016 but within that time frame there will be a significant correction approx ~2000/3000 pips on the Dow, followed by new highs to complete the bull market (pri IV & V), we are still in Primary III (parabolic).

My Personal objective as a minimum next year and possibly into 2015/6 is ~10000 Dow pips on swing basis, intra-day trading will add more coin to it


and here is how i see it coming for now - these are just projections and more accurate price points can be determined near the time based on time and price action etc. i'll monitor and adjust. the chart posted contains 2 counts a primary and alternative - both Bully.

Pri III Target = ~17600 or 18200/18283
Pri IV Target = ~15289
Pri V Target = 19261 or 21965



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_weekly_29thDec2013.JPG

All imho, dyor.

rgds,

WS - bully going into 2014

WaveSurfer wrote:

Possible 123 low formation??? This is based on the hourly chart.
Long above 15798 with stop below the 2 point . This is during market hours only.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowhourly13thdec.png

PPS Remember that fractal I showed you? It also had a false breakout of the channel before dropping back to about half way up the channel and then a massive breakout. Could we be on for the same?



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/dowfractal.png

PS The 3 waves down to 703 could also just be wave A of int ii (assuming it was a low). I'd normally expect a wave 2 to go deeper than this has so far.

I'd love it to drop to that trendline by Dec 27th as it coincides with the 61 fib at 15275 on that date and would be a great place to buy for a Happy New Year )

Ha ha! Thanks remo - don't blame you for not wanting to field questions on waves!

We've been looking at some wave options in the chatroom and wave int ii of major 5 of primary 3 seems to be the most likey.

A close above 15790 might also be enough as that should rule out the possibility of a 5 wave down move (since it would overlap the possible wave 1 down).

All fun and games!

The dow being a pain as usual. It just does not want to give us a nice christmas present . This index can be a pain.
A good entry to go long was at 15710 yesterday on a first attempt basis. That entry has now gone.
This correction is not unusual as most correction form in a ABC pattern. Thats one of the reason that a 123 high can be risky to trade. The dow has basically gone back into the channel that it temporary broke out from.The time to be concerned is if the dow goes below 15670 then that could mean a fall back down to 15522 where if it breaks will open up the test of the trend line at 15160ish.
As for the christmas rally.
Its still possible as we still have at least 7 trading days remaining and that could easily mean a massive points change. Look for an early indication by the dow finishing above the previous days high.
The previous days high for today is at 15846. A finish above this could signal a end to the correction as currently the correction has an ABC format.
As for wave counts
were still in wave 3 of the dow so we are expecting wave 4 some time next year and this correction should last about 6 months.
ive got this at wave 5 of major 3....and wave 2 of 5 currently so 3 minor waves remaining...to the big correction. So markets may have until may or june next year to go up till then a big correction.

Please dont ask me about waves as trying to put them to paper does my head in. I dont know the way people label them and that seems to throw a lot of people. This is how i do it and its down to you how you want to read this.
i have this as wave 2 of 5 of 3.
Any way i could be wrong on all this so take with a pinch of salt.
I dont normally tell people about waves but since its cristmas i thought id share my wave count
have fun translating this. and im not available for any questions


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowwaves2013.png



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thdec13.png

15800 held. Still no sell?

Looks like Santa came early this year but got upset and took his toys home with him.

Hi Diver,

I think that was just a comment from WS regarding Friday night's Dow action referring to sell signals from the 5 min chart (ie there weren't any). I think he was saying that Dow could finish close to the 16070 level that the futures peaked at in out of hours trading following the non farm payroll figures from the US.

It didn't quite manage those levels but closed with a very bullish candle as remo's pointed out.

Hope that helps.

WaveSurfer wrote:
uh!.... translation please

Get ready for the Christmas rally.
The Dow almost finished with a maribuzo white on Friday (out by 2 points) . Could this be a secret signal to professional traders...lol..
The strong finish we had on Friday should signal a rally to the tops and beyond I think. I'm still hoping for a 1000 point move over 2 weeks. This. Should hopefully pay for some Christmas presents ...
Fingers crossed...

booom booom -

this aint nothing lol, still no sell can you believe it.....dont be shock to see highs of the nfp pumpo or close to it.

Yeah, fair enough remo, though I don't think this was just the SB companies - the futures market really did move up 200 pips and down 230p pips in about 2 mins. Too fast to take advantage for us poor PIs lol!

I saw my Saxo trade P/L move like billyo and couldn't press buttons fast enough!

Hi jackozy
thats the reason i always say trade during market hours only as spread betting companies do take the CENSORED.
I did not see it move that much thou i saw the 200 points move and that was done to steal peoples money. Day light robbery. Hence why people should stick to market hours trading.

Jackozy wrote:

"Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter."

Yes, just a tad remo! 430 pips in 2 minutes!

Not seen one of those for a while...

Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter.

Im still waiting for the Christmas rally and the signal for this should be a close above the previous days high hopefully. If we get that then the highs should be targeted again.

As long as the dow stays above 15800 then a good chance of a rally still possible. This level was back tested the other day as this was where it broke out from and also where the 23.6fib level was of the recent peak to bottom. A finish below 15800 could signal a move down towards 15600 area.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow6thdec.png


Only trade the dow if you are experienced otherwise you will lose a lot.

Marubozu White on the hourly dow. could this be a sign???? The bullishness will be void once the low of the marubozu gets taken out. Normal entry is half way down with stops below.


chartsview.co.uk/learning/Marubozu-White-Pattern.html
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thdec1.png

This bounced perfectly of 15884.. Now protect the winnings as the first attempt worked. Never good a second time..

The best level to go long now is at 15884. This is the back test of the channel top .
Ive got a 40 point stop loss attached to this during market hours only. Im hoping that the christmas rally will start once it touches this level. I still think that we are going to have a rally towards christmas as this year has been one of the best years in percentage terms rise .So for that reason i still think there is a rally to come.
I may have to re-think my ways if 15884 gets broken and it drops after that level.
That level is going to be important in my opinion


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/3rddec.png

Sorry, that was the chart from the day before. Here's last night's closing chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily26_11_13.png

Quick update from yesterday's Dow cash chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

I hadn't checked Monday's cash high which was 16109. The futures chart had already hit the 16125 resistance but cash caught up last night and dropped 60 pips pretty quickly off that level.

Just FYI.

As soon as IG Markets and the words "all data is indicative" are put together, you know exactly where you stand

I've got 70% long on the FTSE, and 22% long on the DOW as I type...

It might as well be anything, so to this end I share Monkeyz's cynicism; but if Remo's bullish calls prove accurate (again!), then for me, it might give creditability that IG's data is more or less correct.

Why you may well ask? Well, because we know that most self-styled traders / spread-betters / gamblers lose money. It is a better to bet on a coin toss!



Good luck all in any case!

Remo - click on the Dow and see that 78% are short or whatever IG are telling you... then click on the FTSE. Currently 45% short for me.

Now scroll down on the FTSE page to see that 69% of IG clients are now long on the ftse and only 70% of IG clients are short on the DOW!

#IGrandomnumbergenerator

All the best,
M.

Well, I'm not sure about IG's clients but IMHO there are some warning signs that a correction is due. I'm not saying that the top is in for now but take a look at yesterday's candle on the Dow:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

It's only a single candle but it looks like a gap up, almost a shooting star, and look where that trendline comes from:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly25_11_13.png

There may still be a Christmas rally but be wary about adding to longs IMHO.

Some thing interesting..
I was going through IG and found that 82% of there clients who have positions on the Dow are Short...lol....poor sods...why would anyone be short ?? Obviously they don't use charts...
And 52% of the clients who have positions on the ftse100 are long..

This back tested the channel yesterday ,almost perfectly.
Im kinda sad as had bigger position taken out due to stoploss but at the same time managed to buy new positions at a lower price thou not as many as i had initially.
We dont want the dow to finish below 15860 as that could signal a bull trap.
im hoping that it moves higher from hear...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stnov.png