1. - wicks etc as per you below comment - dont matter, not that significant imo
2. 14 March candle long green body - check
3. 15march candle has short red body Check
4. 15march candle is is equal to previous day high - Check
5. inside price action - check

tentative conclusion until i get confirmation which is KEY is:
2 days in a row of equal highs signalling a resistance and formed at key pivots and fib clusters, along with a print of that type of candle formation. This could signal a short term top is forming.

Regards WS
WaveSurfer wrote:

Just as thought - you beauty !!!

cheers J

Here you go WS:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily16_03_13.gif

Updata's been playing up again this am so no chance to look in more detail and the missus won't be happy if I spend more time working now, especially if I want to watch the England v Wales game with a few cold ones later on!

BTW, the SPX daily has a smaller "head" than the Dow and long "tail" which penetrated its equivalent short term uptrend hence my Q re hanging man. Not a tweezer top though. Another thing, you may want to look at the last 3/4 daily FTSE candles and compare with the March 2012 top.

Better go...have a good weekend all (will try and look for more detail tomorrow if I get chance)

Can somebody with cash market charts, Updata etc, not futures, please post the daily chart up ?

i'm seeing some discrepancies on the candlestick would like too see what updata or any other cash chart print has on it.

daily displaying a tweezer top formation ?

in the meantime DOW 14465 is the big number, no break no lower. as for correction i'd think the first target would be to look at the breakout point of 14200/156, confirmation of a break & day close of that then we 'll look to lower targets as J has mentioned below.

thanks in advance.

Yep, I'd agree with that and have been short ftse" and Dow since the off today. Targeting the 38 fib from Nov lows but no lower than the wave 4 low of lesser degree so max lows of 6258 ftse, 13775 Dow and 1485 spx

According to UBS the DOW will reach a top of around 14540 before falling back 5-7% moving in to Q2. Can you believe the index was as low as 12500 only 5 months ago. Madness.

Interesting to see what happens next but the DOW has taught me a very valuable lesson about markets. I will post my experience later.

dows in a nice channel currently on the hourly chart.
Im long from friday and will close my long if the lower channel breaks.

Here's a thought, long term bears have been holding on the bearish w3 scenario, where's that leave em now

Surely the only sensible option now is to go long at 14198 witha stop below the 14149 high?

If there's a chance to do that, that is....

Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder

Oh well the short did not last long....let's see if the Dow can stay above the 14198 level today.
I'd be surprised if this moves far away from this area as like I said earlier the NFP comes out Friday and that can make a big difference.
Watching closely

remo wrote:
I'm thinking that the sidelines is the best place to be right now...

Still got some positions open, but I'm really not keen to add more...And as I type, more economic data to drive the Dow even higher towards 14250...

I can't watch so on my day off from work I'm taking the Mrs out shopping instead.

It will probably cost me a lot more than shorting the DOW though

I hate it when the dow edges close to an important number slowly. The risk are higher for a breakout.
I'm still gonna short at 14198 during market hours but there is serious risk attached to this due to the close proximity to the all important number. I'm hoping that the bears come out and play when this number gets hit
I'm only risking 40 points so not so bad .

As amo pointed out Fridays the day that the NFP comes out and this has the power to push through or break down fast. These numbers will determin the real direction of the American markets for the short term. Be very careful when trading during the NFP as stops can easily be taken out due to the massive volatility associated with this news. I've seen the Dow move up and down by over 100 points in the space of a few minutes due to dodgy numbers. One minute it was up a 100 then the next it was down by a hundred all before the market even opened. So be very careful on Friday particularly.

we have US NFP on Friday. Could decide who takes the crown. My money's on the bulls. Just seem's to be no stopping equities at the moment and looks like we need another scare for markets to fall.

But then again we've all seen what a difference a few days can make.

They've hit 14179 now.

Battle looks set for today. Bulls vs bears. Take your pick.

Dow futures up to 14150, could hit your short entry target 14198 tomorrow.

first a shooting star on the dow and now a possible hanging man...lol
days still young so the hanging man may change by close.
sell in may and come back in october may be a good thing this year as the 85billion spending cuts comes into force at midnight tonight i think and will last till October.
careful out there

Hi ammo
The signs are there for a reversal but you cant pre-empt it.
The rsi is diverging but also its trying to breakout of the short term RSI trend line .which could imply higher prices.
Today was obvious with regards to the volatility due to all the key people giving speeches. Also the US manufacturing data came in better than expected and the consumer sentiment was also good.
Im still gonna short on first attempt at 14198 with a 40 point stop during market hours only for today.

remo wrote:
Remo what do you make of the MACD and RSI negative divergence? Signs of a reversal or am I clutching at straws?

Remo you weren't wrong about the volatility today. It was more than 150 points lower an hour and a half ago.

im surprised no one mentioned the small shooting star yesterday on the dow???

In the meantime I genuinely expect it to respect the technicals, so see it going no higher than 14200.

Apparently today is just the start but no deals are expected to be done. Some more information here if anybody interested :

www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-news-blog/20...uts-qanda-highlights

Looks like the politics are going to continue for a while. I wonder how high the DOW will go in the mean time.

Remo - totally same wavelength.

Without a word of a lie, I currently have an order sitting to sell at 14195 with a 40 pip stop.
Traded it a couple of times on the 5m chart for some quick pips, but would love the 14195 order to be hit, even if it does get obliterated on good news, still a good trading set up imo.

Today may be a very volatile day.
Todays the day the 85 billion spending cuts come into force in America. President obama and congress are still in deadlock over this so if some thing happens with regard to this the market could fly or drop.

Ben Bernanke is also speaking in a conference today and he may say some thing that can move the markets.

Its funny how all this is happening when the dow is in striking distance of the all time high.

So be on your guards as if they agree a deal on the spending cuts which would make shorting very risky today.
Im still planning on going short at 14198 with a 40 point stop but will cancel that if they agree on a deal or if Ben says something that is bullish.

You also got Warren buffet delivering his annual communication to investors. A lot of people are waiting to read this.
also ISM report and US auto sales are out today.

so all in all a possible volatile day looming so be careful as some of the comments can have an effect on commodities and currency as well.

This looks like its gonna go a lot lower.
This had a bearish engulfing pattern last night so bears are in control.
This may back test the breakout point at 13858 so worth a short during market hours if it hits that level with a 40 point stop



dyor

longterm_view wrote:
Hi long term view
I only trade during market hours on the dow.
14025 is not a significant number for me to trade off.Every one knows im waiting to short this once it hits 14198 on a first attempt basis only. I only ever trade of important levels on the dow. I dont trade this every day.If you over trade this index it can be unforgiving.
I change my opinion regularly on this index depending on the charts. Im a very short term trader so bear that in mind

DOW above 14025.

Remo,

I dont usually trade the DOW

As its out of hours, do you wait for a test of 14025? or buy as soon as market opens? or buy just before market closes?

Just advice, many thanks.

That's the Dow...moves pretty quickly once it starts to move

And how quickly they change back

www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA

I'm surprised not much talk about the DOW or indices in general. Close below 13860 now looking on the cards. Amazing how things can change in a couple of days.

Dow has closed above the magic 14020.

Target 14198 then on the cards?

sorry did not answer your question
Its been a buy on the dow since 3rd jan and no other signals have turned up yet. Its very close to giving a sell signal but even if it does the confirmation for that will take a few weeks latter to confirm it.



I do know how to use it thou and its a nice system

Amo wrote:
Nope is the simple answer.
My methods dont use any one particular system. I generally trade of trend lines and resistance and support lines and any technical that looks good. i mainly use candlesticks charting as my main charting.
I use supports and resistances primarily to trade off.
Ronnie is going to try out the RMO soon once she is comfortable with it.

The reason its not for me is the delay in getting into the trade. Its great when you ride it out.
Its a good system thou but i like to catch the moves early so not for me.
Its a good system for total newbee as it incorporates strict rules and that is what is needed to succeed in these markets.
I dont use any systems as i use my own methods. You should only use what works for you.
Like i said this system is good for someone that does not have a trading plan as such or that are new to the markets.
System trading gives you discipline and that is what is needed to win in the markets.

Let us know how it works out for you

Have you noticed that a break upwards out of the trading range gives a target of 14025 + (14025-13860) = 14190.

Ring any bells?

Cheers Remo. Out of interest do you ever use the RMO that was presented yesterday. I'm looking to take up the trial but I'd be interested to know what it was saying about indices such as the DOW right now. I suspect it would be a buy.

Amo wrote:
Yep. Its the key to bigger falls.
Thats at the bottom of the trading range
1 hour chart is below so as you can see the trading range more clearly


If the dow finishes below 13860 then look for a 160 point drop at least.
Thats roughly the size of the trading range.

The levels to watch are
up above 14025
down below 13860

A close above or below these levels should go in that direction.

dyor

Hi Remo,

Is 13860 still a key closing level for the DOW?

Thanks
Amo

There is some negative divergence on the daily. Cant post chart, still at work.

It does look like its coming doesn't it?

4 hour chart attached.

A break above 14020 could take this to the magic 14198?

dl.dropbox.com/u/4385922/dow12.png

The level to watch today is 13860 .
But if you look at the hourly chart you can see that there is a wedge pattern and if it breaks out past
13880 then that may give you an early entry.
if the dow finishes below 13860 then i would expect this to go lower.




dyor

I hope this post doesn't appear too facetious, but what if we're nowhere near the top - if - I repeat, if, we consider an Inflation Adjusted Dow?

Just a thought!

i think i will hold off on that short now....crazy action back to re-assess wtf.

pick ya spot & short the b wave rally imo for w4minor c down 13728/665 looks like a good spot for a 1st target and maybe a reversal. should see 5 waves down in a zig-zig or maybe a triangle just to add to some confusion... alternate minor 2 was irregular flat 13365-12883.

watch ya stops tho and manage them well, get a feeling the cleaners might come out to play after hours we hang abt round here.

line in the sand to invalidate - 14021

dont say the market didnt give ya chance today...

Remo - the Dow can dance and its dancing at the moment. I am taking that the 14198 can still be met as the fall today is at a random place - at not a known resistance. Maybe thats just the longs being closed just in case and one more last hurrah to take the unsuspecting lot to 14198 before it tanks?

if the dow finishes below 13860 today then id expect the dow to go towards 13660 as thats where the breakout point was. If that level fails then down she goes.

so the levels to watch for today are
13860