ouch...

Me too!!
short at 26600 kicked in and duly out for 120 pips.....fortunately it was small...and stopped out before the big move up....Luckily i had short gold which more than covered it....so phew....

Sort of move that wipes accounts clean!
Sorry Libero...That's the risks of futures....

I think the the bear phase starts now imvho....WS did say 30,000 possible...
I think down from here imvho....possibly slowly and painfully.....but wdik!

so lets see...
atb
trendfriend

Ronmould wrote:
I'm sorry to hear that man. it's a real beast. I've gotten used to accepting that taking a hit is part and parcel of trading, but it still can be very frustrating, so i feel your pain so to speak.

markets are the ultimate reactionaries - imagine if they were put in charge of the "red button" (nukes) - the world would be over several times over.

I'm also on the receiving end of a spanking - had a massive stop on my short as was expecting volatility but ultimately downside.

Ronmould wrote:
Indeed Ron, here's a good article by Bloomberg on the subject:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-...tions-in-large-study

But do remember that the market always gets ahead of itself, wiping out anyone in the other direction (I took a nice hit this morning!) - and not sure if there's a lesson here to be honest (beyond not trading at all!).

Stops are nearly pointless as they have be super wide during volatility. Now, I'm going to have spend the rest of the week chasing it

Not sure what to make of it from a charts perspective at the moment but from a new perspective the reality is that the vaccine isn't going to have a huge impact this winter. As even once approved and distributed availability is going to be scarce.

Paitech wrote:
I was Paitech - I opened a cheeky short today - and got spanked! (it had to happen right?)

It's a good lesson, but what is the lesson really? I mean it reminds me of Drunkenmiller's quote when he lost billions:

Hope no one is short here
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

Ronmould wrote:
I honestly don't know - this isn't is markets as we know it Ron!

...looks like we'll see 30K today whatever happens.

1000 pips in an hour - wow!

...question is now does today turn into a massive shooting star.

That spike........

That must have been crippling (I'll put my hands up and say, I got stung hard - as I opened a short - talk about rubbish timing!)

Hello Fellow traders and investors -

This move up should not really be a shock - see my post below, expect the unexpected pump, to near recent highs (LH), also close that small gap yesterday - notice how dow is pivoting in that gap range... also negative diver forming on on the hourly.

- still expect he market to move down- whilst those that keep changing their narratives, mine remains firm.

eventually would like to see dow hold 25000 or we see a move down to the march lows. if it can hold 25k - then this thing can become really bullish. so if you short, good time to take coin and hedge your short position.

an outlier is their is wedge forming now which could see a final move up to 30,000 dow before a final collapse.

trade well, keep taking coin and dont chase or you'll lose your pants. there will always be an entry

Trendfriend wrote:
Bravo to you good Sir!

Seriously man, I'm all frozen here - can't work these markets out!

short order in at 28600....with 150 point stop(for now).

lets see...will be the first trade here for a while.
atb
trendfriend

unrelenting rally....

(yeah, I missed it, doh! )

Too much analysis and dithering and not enough action on my part I must admit! It's just that the markets (Dow in this case!) look really extended - I'd hate to be holding the bag! but what do I know!

Actually i hadn't noticed that MI had flipped since last time I looked so that would put Biden in the lead.

Ronmould wrote:
The US system is a headache, as an amateur historian, I enjoyed learning about it, but I also learnt is that like any other system it is susceptible to all sorts of issues.

As it stands, Trumps leads and but also needs to hold that leads on GA, PA, NC - and take MI or Wisconsin, if he is to stay in the White House. The odds are against him, but so much to consider...

Now, on the dow - hell, I don't know anymore - side-stepping this baby, but can't say I got out clean over the past 3 days either!

It be could that there's a dump coming - and right now, the dumb money is being sucked in with all the Biden / Harris will save the world stuff (come on, neither side can or have done much!)

You've got to love the DOW, could take days or even weeks to work out who the president is, all with a pandemic reaching a critical point - still pumping


...I don't get why Biden is Favourite - if you look at the split on remaining college seats it looks like Trump is ahead to me.
but I don't really get the US system!

Trendfriend wrote:
great chart TF, the markets are still bouncing - they don't care anymore - about anything!

Now, election wise, Biden is the favourite, but it's not done just yet.

It's really weird one.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O4zRyHA8IIgGk6aPE%3D

Does seem that Trump will possibly be in for another term!
So we could well see decent rally on the back of that over the next few days....

However the Dow could well stay inside this channel that looks to be forming on the trading hours only chart.
So possibly 26600 for another lower high.....then back down to 26000 for lower low??

lets see...as always wdik..and if your trading this... Bravo!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

updated DOW Chart

Ronmould wrote:
Glad to hear all's well with you buddy. yeah things are ok here too.

thank you for your reply - you did raise the old eyebrows with your 20K comment though! I mean anything is possible, but this much intervention by central planners, i can't see them giving up the fight in proping up prices just yet. As an amateur trader - obviously, i'd like see great action and 20k is great action!

lots of "indicators" are calling for further down side - though as I type, the Dow is clawing back some 230 points from the open - maybe a rally to sell into!

Anyhoo, looking to ride this move further - can't see anyone holding over the weekend (unless they are covering shorts!)

Will look to add more meaningful commentary later today - an update on my chart if you will - hopefully it will add a view!

Take Care Y'all.

I'm good thanks Lib - hope you and yours are too.

I expect the virus will feed wave C more than the election itself but on election day last time the DOW lost and regained over 5%...was thinking if we saw a similar hammer again it could mark the bottom although expect the recovery will be long and drawn out.

I have a little short from when the trend broke Monday with a big stop (just above Sept high) - I like the look of a double bottom with the March low but I'll be looking to close below 20K.

Ronmould wrote:
Hey Ron, hope you're well and keeping safe.

I don't know much about waves to be honest - where do you see Wave C heading?

Also, the election is a big factor (when the markets want it to be), but there's the small matter of rising cases and hospitalisations too, and resumption of trade wars et al....

But on the election itself, Biden is "tipped" to win (I'm not convinced - and i have noted early voting numbers). The senate remains a GIANT prize, and only 1/3 of the seats are up for grabs.


VIX and DXY time!

Libero wrote:
...I was pondering if we could see wave C play out before the election and then overnight between voting and results would see the bottom come in.

gaps

Hey folks,

Really good to see you all involved! (I do miss the old days of "speed-trading" via the chat room, but this will have to do for now! )

I've attached my daily take of the Dow - respecting the trendline and pointing out visible gaps (will they ever be filled?) - let's see!


Hig-Res Dow Chart

( www.tradingview.com/x/hFzWcUAO/ )

I've got a short bias only because of what's going on right now. I also have a sneaky "feeling" that Trump will a second term or Biden wins the White House, but Republicans will retain control of the senate. Both scenarios will annoy the markets for the short term I suspect. Who knows!

N.B. link to chart won't show the gaps discussed, only the trend-line.

I expect the gap to be filled up before we see more selling resume and revisit 26,724 area.

Please note that a rebound is possible after the gap area is filled up so watch for bullish or bearish signal before you take your next action. Sometimes, we let our initial wins and become a little over confident.

A look at the Day chart would tell you that the main trend line is still super bullish so this is a short term sell ONLY.

bang bang i shot the dow,. bang bang 27200 watch if below 27523....

its time to rock n roll. 3..2..

B top in imo . now back n fill ( chop chop) stimulus or no stimulus market will start downtrending.

Short the violent (un)expected Rallies. looking 28000 dow n 27600 n big bounce to recent lower highs maybe, then big dumpo.

chart to follow/.

waverider2 wrote:
I'm flattered waverider2, but I'm not convinced by it for now; not because of the vicious turnaround (by the Tweeter in Chief), but because - frustratingly - I'm now seeing an Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Dow.

(Link to chart for high res image - directly from Trading View, and an embedded image provided)

Dow 4 Hourly Chart


I should be enjoying the intra-day scalps thanks to the volatility right? well, normally I'd say bring it on! but - personally - not feeling it, so observing from the sidelines again.

tempted to trade from the ISA and SIPP accounts which is much worse, but for some reason, I'm way more risk averse than when trading CfDs etc... strange how the mind works!

Wishing you all the best of health and mental well being!

P.S. a shout-out to the man that started this beautiful community - REMO! where are you brother? we miss you! I hope you're well.

Libero- looks like your H&S might actually play out. I have been watching the charts recently and there has been divergences on various time charts, mainly the 4 hour charts

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...J93MvqsOjuao8SbSE%3D

Nice posts and charts Libero...

Looking at the daily....and i honestly don't have a clue here tbh....
It does look like its holding this rising channel from June....the top of which would coincide with the previous top.

Q is....Will it make a lower low? a double top? or blue skies?
So.... one of two things are going to happen.... it could go up....or it could go down!
Which makes my post and chart about as useful as one of Donald Trumps tweets!

I think as an occasional punter on the dow.....short from the double top would be tempting....especially if the rsi is still making a negative divergence...

good luck dow traders...you're all much braver than i'll ever be!

atb
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
The H&S Projected Pattern didn't play out. Markets are liking the "hopes and dreams" stuff today.

The lines displayed on the charts seem to be working (call it short term market memories!)

On the sidelines now.

One more after thought.....

Dow Fourly Chart - will it play out?

https://ibb.co/Mhg3CLK

in the spirit of WS's long term Dow 100,000, here's what a Billionaire thinks (attached)...

For now however, with a COVID-Trump and bad NFP numbers - the dow is down (let's carry on with the short term trend-trading).

The irony of the IBEX and FTSE being a "more accurate" view of where we're really at.

the US markets need get with the program, they are still in their first wave, with covidiots, deniers, liars and hucksters running around out of control.

Dow broke out of downward channel yesterday (just as I went short )..seems to have successfully backtested it as well....will be get stage 3 of the breakout?!

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gIfC0rzu/29HwPxmg1g=

great charts and calls guys....very interesting posts as always.

does look like things could get nasty
this really did need to make a higher high and fly away....

Could well be that it turns back around and the bulls fight back to make that hh....
on the flip side some key levels being tested like the 200 day ema line on the daily....

if those levels go...could we momentum really shift bearish and have part 2 of The Crash??

lets see...and please keep posting guys
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

since the bearish breakdowns established within the major indices and also within the DOW JONES, it is showing up with some interesting price action at the moment, as the market is slightly oversold this can lead to some possible rallies firstly on the shorter term sooner or later, in this case, I detected the important levels and possible outcomes within the index to consider further destinies, for now the trend still remains to the downside however this can change when the index manages to show up with the right price action, till then we should not keep the established bearishness by side as the direction factly is still to the downside.

Looking at my chart you can watch this huge descending-channel-formation marked in blue, within this channel the index has build up a wave-count coherently following up to the downside, at the moment the index forms the major wave D in the wave-count which will run directly into strong resistance layers, firstly consisting of the falling upper boundary, the 100- as well as 200-EMA marked in black and also the horizontal resistance coming into the surface here, these all together forming a coherent and logical resistance cluster which is likely to be confirmed to the downside when touched, this mechanism will set up the final wave E.

When the index shows up with the most likely scenario forming the bearish wave E to the downside, it has the possibility given to recover which can be done in the blue back-up-cluster marked in my chart, where the end of wave E coming together with the lower boundary and the Fibonacci-support lying there, all together building the support from where a bounce can be done, in this case, it is from high importance that the index really bounces in this range because when the index moves swiftly below it and closes below this can invalidate the channel breakout which is not the most likely outcome for now however this scenario should not be underestimated.

Nice one WS,

Yep, I suspect the bounce will appear as a BTFD - and those caught higher up will use it to liquidate.

It's not the end of the markets by any means, but a healthy correction 10-20% for the Dow / S&P isn't a bad thing surely!

Will keep a look out for the numbers as ever.

Would defo prefer the Dow to dump into the close (26700-26600-26560 will do me!)

Hope you're keeping well.

26560/600... watch for close below on a daily basis, it will fall further but expect a bounce from below this area - next up will be 25000 - danger line. the bounce is not a buy/swing- scalps on long side is ok if thats your game (as the rug can be pulled anytime ) - but that will be an opportunity to re- load shorts. i will update later once we have found a short term and give bounce area targets for reloading shorts.

keep the swing short rolling, a close below the above number i will take some profit and leave a nice banker running, and re-short.

bang bang, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

rgds WS.

Apologies folks,

had hoped to put up more charts, but I'm always glad TrendFriend kicking major behind with some thought provoking charts too! (please don't stop TF!)

For now, as it's fashionable to post a dow chart when it's falling.....

does this look like a H&S formation to you good folks?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u0g7fQBK/

High Resolution Image

WaveSurfer wrote:
Wait, didn't you say "the top is in" a few days ago! But, yeah, you're right it's all about Price Action.

WaveSurfer wrote:
I gotta say, Wave theory is way above my pay grade, but maybe you're right! All's i know, is that the markets are are tough (for me!)

WaveSurfer wrote:

My condolences man, I hope you and yours are doing better now, and I'm glad you're doing well!



WaveSurfer wrote:
Dow to 100,000! I'm getting in touch with my fund managers now!

p.s. Don't be a stranger dude, 10-15 years is a long time! Do stay in touch! we missed you.

Thanks, not really one for calling tops, i need to see more price action to determine if this is just a pullback or something bigger. - dow price juncture remain 26700 and 25k - these are important level dow must break n daily > weekly > monthly closes below - no break no lower.

Hence i keep saying its really about the Dow, as its this market along with Russ that remains corrective in structure, where as the SPX and Naz have somewhat diverged and think it may still have more upside left after this pullback - these are impulsive in nature and imp one trend up (3 completed, now in 4Pb, with 5th wave to come) left on both of these before a largest pullback. as for the SPX this could be the end of int 1 of major 3 of primary wave 3, and the pullback to come is a wave 2, whilst dow as things stand currently would be move back down to complete a wave 2 correction that started in march, of course if its start to impulse and make new yearly uptrend that may be a game changer as to whether a revist of march low is likely or not and forms a structure of leading/ending diagonal. the only bearish outlier i can see is this move being completion of a cycle, but for now that is just an outlier.

as to where i have been, i been in and out of the forum and been working away and juggling family life, bereavements which hit me really hard, so not had much time - as for the markets i have refined my setup even further - now i can go without trading for months and compensated by a few large trades (swings) when the time is right. this free up my time by focusing on my kids and work respectively.

should you not hear from me agian, then you will hear from me in 2030/35 when we are dow 100,000

Price is king & BTFD's

regards, WS.

Trendfriend wrote:
Hey TrendFriend, I hope you're keeping safe and well man! (always glad to see your charts and posts!) - Alas, i bottled shorting the Dow for anything meaningful (beyond a scalp). Equally, I did try a quick S&P (ES) trade, but with tight stops, i gave a bit back to the markets. So after all these years, I still trade with my finger on the trigger as I don't trust brokers to act on a stop / limit. (maybe that's just me!)

Waveman! good to see you dude, it's been too long - where have you been?

Nice chart - it made me think - the S&P (or ES rather), seems to have more gaps than the dow... it's not a biggy, but might be a good indicator of sequences on how this market may behave.

I'd say this though, I'll be extra cautious as you've got a mix of bullish retail and X-trillions of Fed protection & easing to pull this market up.

There's never one reason behind this latest decline (from yesterday), I mean one look at tesla's valuations and you'll think its insane, but there was also this:

www.ft.com/content/1746a3c7-3fa2-4db1-ac50-3bbe863f8908

Speculation in tech derivatives points to wild swings

Markets predict elevated volatility after burst of trading in call options on Apple and Tesla

It's an excellent article that nails it.

Here's hoping for more charts. Be Well All.

Great call Wavesurfer.....spot on with the top!
Hope your cleaning up these markets

this does look like it could get nasty!!

Libero....did you get a short in then?
i didn't trade this...been out for too long!

atb
trendfriend

The DOW could not push to new all time highs before some serious selling pressure stopped the music. The move down has some buyers concerned that we are about to take a beating but the trend up is still is tact. A move down through 27400 will change the tone dramatically and trigger another selloff but time will tell if new highs are still on the cards in the near term.

Not too much damage yet, expect the month of sept for markets to start rolling & churning- i.e lower lows and low highs, damage will come in oct. a daily close below the dotted line will give the 1st clue, if it does, then expect a bounce n drop.

Dow filled its gap now we have 2 below as targets for int C for now, dow still remains 3 corrective trends and remain in a bear.

1,618 ext dow hit today from lows.

Imo the top is in, needs to see more, support broken, bounce to be weak, etc but sept 03 2020 n sep 1929 rhymes.

1st time in a while - i am short.

Good luck

What a beast of a rally, this.

Sure, the Dow has been slow to the party, but it's going strong (I know, I know, wiser heads will tell me the fall is coming; let's see).

I thought about shorting it as the gap was filled, but I'm glad I didn't, as I would have been cut to ribbons.

watch that megaphone though!

(chart courtesy of Sven Henrich)

https://ibb.co/g6MxB7n

Stay Safe Out there folks, and in these insanely illogical markets.