Are we going to see a bit of upside now????



www.dropbox.com/s/zcnl4ek6pksao4k/DOW%20Daily%2021.08.2013.png

MRA4 wrote:
Spot on MRA4
The only concern I'd have is the fact that it finished right near the trend line.That opens up the possibility of a breakout?
Normally prices would bounce off hard if the trend line was to have a impact on first attempt. This did bounce of it during the day but latter re-testing it. So best just stay on the side line to see what happens over the next few sessions relating to the Dow.

I see on the daily chart that the Dow is Currently sitting on the trend line & ichimoku cloud support

rt1.e.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/dis...ib47xqnc227&type=png

Hi Folks it's been while since i posted on dow thread, most updates i have given via the chat facility...

here is the updated chart and the current count i have for the DOW.

Major 4 has begun and it will be complex in nature. expecting Dow over the course of the next 3 weeks or so to hit the region of around 14300/600. we see nearer the time for more accurate area's.

current move i have is a minor A of Int A of Major 4, possibly completed yesterday, it also put in +div.

may see a possible minor B wave rally on the cards, short into strength imo.

Long Term count Major 4 of Primary wave III




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DOW_1hr_wavev3.JPG

regards WS.

this broke out but since have fallen ...was a free trade thou so should not have lost...
but there could be another day trade for a first attempt coming
Ive got my long ready to activate at 15513 with a 25 point stop.
this is a short term trend line bounce play on a first attempt basis.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjulyintra.png

The level to watch today is 15606 as a break above this could send this flying.
If you look at the chart you can see the dow going sideways with a lot of indecision.
Sideways move is needed to build strength to go higher.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow31stjuly.png

Hi WS,

Can I ask, i'm confused by this count, as we go from one kind of count (subwave or 2 degree's down from your primary wave) into one degree of wave up if you get me - like you jump from i,ii,iii to 1,2,3 in the next wave - but I thought i,ii,iii,iv,v makes a 1 - then wave 3 is made up of another set of i,ii,iii,iv,v.

Then a full set of 1,2,3,4,5 makes a Cycle wave I and so on?

WaveSurfer wrote:

J - back in side the fork again lol.

Up to 542/557 level before a test of the 340/8 breakout and doji top now?

---

looks good imo..




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_July11.JPG

Good old Boom Boom Ben - he must have seen the continuation dojis on FTSE, Dow and S&P before deciding what to say - it fitted the tea leaves perfectly!

Up to 542/557 level before a test of the 340/8 breakout and doji top now?

GC - as discussed on chat - here you go high level waves.....NO OVERLAP.

the Power of 3

current count Minor 3 of intV of Major 3 of PIII





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_weekly_waves.JPG

rgds WS

Ok, please bear with me on this on, and be gentle.

For the last 2 nights I have been busting my balls with possible EWT counts for the DOW.

I had one last night that looked valid to me, however, in hindsight, I wasn't thinking about moves within moves, or primary/Cycle moves more to the point.

I was directed to go look again and come up with alternative counts. I frustrated myself because I couldn't look past my own bias - but I came in fresh tonight and had a look again. This is what I came up with.

If I am right, I believe we are currently in a sub wave 5 of a primary wave 3 - to be even more specific, I think we are in a minor wave 3 of a subwave 5 of a primary wave 3 if I understand it the way i think I do at the moment. You can see the minor wave on the Daily chart.

Now I know I could be wrong with the titles of primary/subwave/minor wave - but try to bear with me and understand the point im making is relevant. But if you can tell me the real titles, that would be great.

The only rules I use when looking at EWT are the 3 hard rules, being:

1.Wave 2 must not retrace more than 100% of wave 1

2.Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave

3.Wave 4 must not enter the zone of wave 1





Anyway, thought I would share here and see if I am on the right track. Looking at it, I feel confident it all fits - but as always, would love some feedback.

If it is indeed a correct count, I am honestly starting to see the power of EWT. Especially in moves that may seem frustrating to an inexperienced trader - having a look at the bigger picture, before scaling down can really really help to understand price action.

Sorry, this text missed off last post.....


I'm not sure this has retraced fully as it didn't quite reach 38.2 fib at 14,527. The target should be 50%. There is a chance this will retrace from the trendline, circa 15,190 - 15,200 and drop back to 14,200ish. Action at the trend will be defining...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DJ%20INDUSTRIAL%20AVG.png

An alternate ....

Just a word of warning.. Not saying this will happen. Hope it bursts thru 15,200 without stopping

early stage of minor wave 3 on intV of major 3......so plenty of upside to go imo.

update chart.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_1hrWaves_6July.JPG
WaveSurfer wrote:

This should be a free trade now...

PS Look for futures to come to c. 15033-54 and bounce before US open on Monday.

Cheers mate, was getting confused trying to work out which one it could be. I also used one of your blog charts (with fibs) to work out an initial target of 15562. I think I may have got ahead of myself with this one though and gone off the mark.

and close the gap to boot. big up !

Today's drop to 14967 was wave 2 of 3 up from 14550 imho. 14967 was the 61.8% Fib of the rise from 14820 to 15185 (futures prices) which I have as wave 1 of 3 (of 5).

Amo - I think you're right except it should probably be Major 5 not Primary as I think we're in Primary 3.

I've just done a little study of the dow and came to the conclusion that this move up is minor wave 3 of intermediate (3)of Primary ((5))

I tried lol

Im long on the dow with a 40 point stop from here...


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow5thjuly.png

Dow above the 15083 - will it close above?
lets see!!

personal view point is dow has made an intwave 4 bottom and now intV of Major 3 of Primary 3 in progress.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_1hrWaves_4July.JPG





Rgds WS
WaveSurfer wrote:

Yes - Very useful as always.
Yes I do remember 2009 and the days of XTA charts where you helped me to make my first sensible trades, and where virtually every day felt like an up day in the Aim Market (GKP/XEL etc..)- those days seem long gone and I am surprised how much the DOW has rallied whilst the Miners and Oil minnows have yet to follow ...
Many Thanks

SE

Syrian Empire wrote:
Hi syrian

its a tricky one this.
were still in the uptrend as such as the main trend line is far away. Near 13000 points ..so any move down will just be a correction for the time being. Im more of a short term trader so i look at the dow from day to day and not from a long term perspective. So with regards to pensions im the last person to talk to about that. Bull markets generally last around 4-5 years and right now its been 4 years since the start of this bull market. I dont know if you remember but i called the bottom in march 2009 over on iii when chartsview was just a private board The days when i used to try and help people learn elliott waves.I dont teach my method of elliotts anymore as it drove me mad trying to explain things over and over and in the end it even confused me with all the counts.short term,long term .The labeling of elliotts can be very confusing and its beyond chartsview really to teach. .
Time has flown since those days. Everyone was doom and gloom at that point. right now there is no extreme feelings out there so doubtful that were at the top. I still think the dow primary target is going to be in the 17000 region and thats where this bull market may top out. Possibly another 1-3 years??? who knows ...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowbullmarket.png

I dont remember a time when the markets have done so well during a down turn. All the quantitive easing has made things more un predictable . What happens when the world starts to recover properly??? So reading the markets using general economics may not be so straight forward as in the past. Thats generally my feeling.
Like i said im more of a short term trader.

short term..
if the dow finishes above 15083 then a possible 123 low formation again. The last one failed.
if it does break out above 15083 i suspect its going to be a quick move. This should then head towards the down trend line on my chart at 15270 ish area. where it will stop and hesitate This is the area that it has to break above to signal new highs may be near.Once that trend line gets taken out then this should make new highs again.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thjuly.png

so take the above with a pinch of salt.
Now i can stop my ramblings
hope the above was of some use

Hi Remo - Where are we up to with the DOW? Low volatility and drifting? there was talk of a dip to 14300 area - is this still an option?

Currently have my pension sat in cash and looking for an entry point to coincide with DOW low.

Thanks

SE

look above just click on the live chat...

there is a chat room in here?
:/

Are you not looking at 14970-15025 for the next key level WS?

PS Just going to the chat room if you're free?

Dow futures hit within a few pips to the target initial target level 14848, if this level gets smashed through then 870 /900 next up.WaveSurfer wrote:

Another overnight futures drop to a 61.8% Fib. All looking good for wave 5 so far IMHO.

The level to watch for a finish above is 14796....If it can finish above that then good chance of a move higher in the short term. The dow did bounce of the short term trend line yesterday.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow25thjune.png

me personally am just waiting to see how things progress.

dow & spx currently struggling at the current levels spx 1587/9 dow 15774/80 - failure to take these out then expect a reversal

J- not only was it the 61.8 level - there's another .....88.0 from the highs of 15550 area to your previous 4 @ 14444, again see the bullish Bat ?

If the dow can continue to at least rally to 14900+ or spx 1604 then likely the low has been put in and will likly confirm a wave iv low @549

Watch >590 >652 > 680 > 714 > 752/4 > 848 area on Dow today...

cheers WS

Dow futures made a higher low just below the 61.8% Fib of yesterday's bounce last night. Could be confirmation of the end of wave 4?

Sorry no chart as in a bit of a hurry to get to school lol! (Makes me feel young(er) again!)

Looks like this to me:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily24_06_13.gif

Nice trendline bounce from the wave 1 and 2 lows. Should be wave 5 of major 3 of primary 3 of cycle 1 now.

now dow can rip up needs to stay abv 680 & get abv 714 > 754

all longs now locked in

Banked some longs at 660

Kudos GC - closed all shorts and taken some long positions at 560.

still hold the view posted at the weekend, this royal flush does not suprise me.

like to see spx retake 1578. - dow apprx 680/710+ , if not the noriginal downside target remain 14550 - 14400

also +div 1hr remains

will post details later on.

WaveSurfer et al,

Really looks like the DOW will hit that 14500 area today at some point during the US session. Its broken through all noted supports above that, and I feel that is the next likely area from here.

I have reduced my target to this area (14500) from original 14350, as I also believe some resistance will be found here. By this point the pip count will be approx. 700, and I would rather take that profit now, than sit and ride out another correction, increasing the risk of the trade and my own sanity/frustration if it decided to turn against me.

I rode out this mornings calls for a bounce as I saw some weakness in the smaller timeframes, which is usually the opposite of what I would do, so feel like I have taken a step forward with this particular type of trade.

I will be watching the 14500 area with close attention though after I have sold (presuming it gets there).

forgot to add dow EOD...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_EOD_23June.JPG

Updated 1hr chart. worth looking at oversold conditions on major timeframes, +div and candlesticks prints.... MRA4 - i have current move as major 3 of primary 3 still in play, i see a potentially big move coming next week and it looks like up imo. key will be market holding abv weekly low and moving abv at a min on a closing basis approx of 15050/15110.

spx 1578 & 1622/28 key to watch

also ftse daily candle looks interesting ( doji on futures & inverted hammer on cash at the current level and imho could represent a good risk/reward on the long side, still expect ftse to make one more higher high once this down move has bottomed out (i think its happened or very close to it) and the next high is likely to be the top for ftse.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DOW_1hr_wavev2.JPG




all imho

Cheers WS
WaveSurfer wrote:

On the Daily I can see Cloud support & a trend line support
c.rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/s...292aaac8262e94cb555e

Trying to understand if we are still in the main wave 3 of 5, looking at the weekly chart back from march 2009

c.rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/s...2e74001dc20c2c7b2d5b

updated chart from this morning.... a rally abv todays futures high be a good start and then we assess the moves from there on in... number of pips it rallys n pullbacks and so on....

also asc tri break out from 14802/06 on smaller timeframes





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_21june13v2.JPG

hmmmmm.... up imo - dyr, spx 76/77 satifies A=C scenario at a minimum, + div at that level and the biggest rally of 17/18 pips from todays lows, along with candles...

requires confirmation..... and not out the woods yet

cheers WS

and then down again Remo?
Things are looking a wee bit bearish, I took some money off the table on Tuesday, looks like I will hold it in cash for a little while !

Hows that for a perfect back test.
shows you the power of charts

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stjune.png

GC - sounds abt right....