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TOPIC: GKP

GKP 24 Feb 2015 08:14 #201

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GKP 23 Feb 2015 14:03 #202

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Here's the chart, symmetrical triangle



The gap your talking about was on the 6th Aug 2009:

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GKP 23 Feb 2015 10:24 #203

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Remo ,,, put a chart up re that triangle when you get 5 mins please,,,

Regarding any gap fill,,, I have Aug 9th 2009 at 13.25/18.50 as the target ,,,
remo wrote:
20p is the target for triangle...losing my mind
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GKP 23 Feb 2015 10:18 #204

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Remo, do you see a symmetrical triangle breakdown on 23 Jan 2015 ? The target as per that is around 10-12p.
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GKP 23 Feb 2015 10:04 #205

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20p is the target for triangle...losing my mind
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GKP 23 Feb 2015 09:54 #206

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your miles out...lol... ;) ;)
its around about 17 ish area. so deep into the gap support.
so thats the area i would look to take new longs on if we dont get a 123 low breakout.

SirRichardBunson wrote:
Not that I'm a triangle expert but my guess ,,,, if we take it from the break of previous support at 42.25 (11/02) ,,, I would have the target at somewhere 28/29 ,,,, I prefer following the long term downtrend lines and today I have support at 31.11 and falling daily ,,,, so watching on the side lines for sure at the mo ,,,,

How far am I out Remo ?
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GKP 23 Feb 2015 08:26 #207

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Not that I'm a triangle expert but my guess ,,,, if we take it from the break of previous support at 42.25 (11/02) ,,, I would have the target at somewhere 28/29 ,,,, I prefer following the long term downtrend lines and today I have support at 31.11 and falling daily ,,,, so watching on the side lines for sure at the mo ,,,,

How far am I out Remo ?
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GKP 22 Feb 2015 21:18 #208

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I know it,i know it...It's a real feel good,big and happy number,am i right? ;)
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GKP 22 Feb 2015 18:30 #209

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hi richard.
sorry for the late reply..been busy.
i would have shorted at that point yes .
The triangle breakout on gkp has a target as well...Does anyone know what that target is :ohmy: :ohmy:

SirRichardBunson wrote:
Hi Remo ,,,, with Brent rising to $60.32 this morning would you still take that sell trade on the retest of the 42.25 support line should we get there,,,, or adopt a wait and see

I realise that this oil rise does not alter GKPs financial mess
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 17:49 #210

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GL there chaps!
PS: how much room do you give for stops TF? Ta.
Last Edit: 19 Feb 2015 17:52 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 17:16 #211

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Nothing wrong in taking positions at support levels F4T... ;)
You have to be in a trade to win trade.

You either get stopped out and lose a small amount, or you gain a nice profit.... one of the two...

Regards,
Trendfriend :)
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 16:40 #212

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41.5-42p is support turned resistence. was support on 16 oct 2014 and then 11 feb 2015. break down through it on 12 feb triggerd 14M vol with 9% drop.
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 16:09 #213

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TF,

the difference between the two examples on your chart is that the current formation has back tested and failed at a previous support (42.25 area).

That is 2 tests on 36./36.50 area now. Next test and it should fail. Let's see.

Livenow, what is the significance of 41.50? Ta.

If I am correct, the next lower point for a modest bounce is 29, the weekly support.

F4T
Trendfriend wrote:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LGYE=&symbol=L%5EAFR

I'm gonna go long @36.5p... tight stop...
Scalp only as the trend is still very much Dowwwnnnn..... :angry:

Looking for a small bounce and out...

Regards,
trendfriend :)
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 11:46 #214

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Yes there might be a bounce and test of 41.5p from 36p . if that test fails then this will be going down like lead balloon.
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 11:03 #215

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uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LGYE=&symbol=L%5EAFR

I'm gonna go long @36.5p... tight stop...
Scalp only as the trend is still very much Dowwwnnnn..... :angry:

Looking for a small bounce and out...

Regards,
trendfriend :)
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GKP 19 Feb 2015 10:50 #216

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How glad am i to be out of GKP for a long time now. Will wait for 25-30 which seems to be the technical low of the triangle breakdown in Dec 2014. But then there is an even lower target of 10-15p which is entirely possible if the financing is as rubbish as the previous round.
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GKP 13 Feb 2015 18:21 #217

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The 1 will find itself. Until we have that low followed by a higher low there isn't a great deal to be achieved by second guessing the market. Let the market show you.

Looking at the chart I'd say, as others have, the 30p level could be a good entry but I'm going to play it safe and wait for the turnaround rather than jumping in.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/24866576/Feb...2015.02.13%20GKP.png
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GKP 13 Feb 2015 18:09 #218

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Of course Sir Richard - another 'doh' moment for me then!

Thank you for the courtesy of the response.

Best,

EGH
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GKP 13 Feb 2015 16:41 #219

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Previous 123 has finished Earlgrey as we had a lower low yesterday ( previous 1 low was 42.25) so either we wait for a new lower low to form or we move upwards from here (doubtful re financing issues) to start a new 1 ,,, so long ways to go yet before we are even close ,,,,, just my thoughts
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GKP 13 Feb 2015 16:35 #220

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How far back and at what SP do you guys have the '1' of a possible forthcoming 123 low please?
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GKP 13 Feb 2015 08:44 #221

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Hi Remo ,,,, with Brent rising to $60.32 this morning would you still take that sell trade on the retest of the 42.25 support line should we get there,,,, or adopt a wait and see

I realise that this oil rise does not alter GKPs financial mess
Last Edit: 13 Feb 2015 09:00 by SirRichardBunson.
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GKP 12 Feb 2015 12:10 #222

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Hi All,

as predicted, this is in real trouble and has now set a new low. As per my chart, the long term support of 45 was the key area. I highlighted 45 some weeks ago. Once that went we could expect new lows. It is notable that 45 didn't even back test today. The gap is still the best chance for a bounce btu still risky when liquidity is an issue. Whatever financing options GKP come up with, it will be bad for shareholders (they have a record of poor and expensive financing). Once GKP bottoms though, I think there will be excellent opportunities for 100% minimum, assuming they do manage to finance that is.

Wait for the financing detail, then wait again.



GKPDaily11.02.15.png



GL
F4T

PS: TF, I have the weekly support at 29. The Monthly support was pierced yesterday and that is never good.
Last Edit: 12 Feb 2015 12:18 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 12 Feb 2015 11:44 #223

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its clear to see why i always say when a share finishes near strong support its best not to take the long trade.
GKP has clearly broken strong support .. Now if thats back tests it in a few days time just short it from the back test area with tight stops.
warning signs were here for a while especially the back test of the triangle breakout the other day.That was the perfect short area.
lower prices should follow now so be warned. There are no buy signals on this share for a long time.
just wait for a 123 low formation before considering any longs, or if your a day trader then look to go long only at strong support on a first attempt basis.
good luck.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp12feb2015.png
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GKP 12 Feb 2015 08:57 #224

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Long term weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...HBoE=&symbol=L%5EGKP :(

Close up, 24p (falling weekly) the place the best place to buy imho :ohmy:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Mo%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

we do have a RSI divergence on the weekly, which makes a rebound possible at any time, but i'm waiting for 24p, ;) so lets see. 24p in terms of R/R make sense imho...

Regards,
Trendfriend.
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GKP 11 Feb 2015 10:51 #225

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there is strong support at 42.25 but the fact that gkp is hovering around this area is suggesting that this level could have a serious test and a break would be bad for gkp as there aint any major supports until the low 20s.
The recent triangle break to the downside is also bearish for this share..
Support...42.25,,,,37,,,23.75,,,21.5


monthly chart of gkp so as you can see the levels more clearly


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thfeb2015montly.png
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remo
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GKP 08 Feb 2015 13:08 #226

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For those looking to trade the fall, here is a reminder of the key levels. The GAP has to be a reasonable target but IMO any trading tomorrow is very risky. Best to let things settle and get fully digested.


GKPDaily06.02.15supports.png



GL
F4T
Last Edit: 08 Feb 2015 13:20 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 09:25 #227

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Thank Monkeyz. Here is the other article. I know that this is a technical site but this is important for those holding and is why I have, on a few occasions in posts, noted their dubious cost structure. The face value of the bonds are more than the market cap at close yesterday, though they would be trading much lower than par value.
All the equity investment from shareholders over the years has been eroded. We can see what crippling bond costs have done to Afren. Not sure selling crude cheap on the domestic market will do it. They may have to revert to an equity issue/placing and dilution. Sub-43 is a given now the following article has spelled out the problem clearly.

GL
F4T


February 6, 2015 5:37 pm
Gulf Keystone abandons oil exports from Kurdistan
Michael Kavanagh

Gulf Keystone Petroleum has abandoned exports of oil from Kurdistan because of delays in payment from the region’s autonomous government in Erbil.
Shares in the London-listed company slid 6 per cent to 49.25p on Friday after it said it had suspended crude oil deliveries by truck to Turkey for eventual sale to the international market amid the logjam on payments.

The abandonment of exports from Gulf Keystone’s flagship Shaikan field, where production hit an average of 40,000 barrels of oil a day in December, comes in spite of an apparent agreement to secure regular payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government in December.
Gulf Keystone said on Friday that instead of delivering further cargoes for sale through the KRG’s oil marketing agency, it would instead divert smaller volumes of production for local sale that, though it would command a lower price, offered “the prospect of receiving revenues in the near term”.
The decision to abandon its export efforts — which has seen convoys of up to 360 vehicles a day departing Shaikan to deliver oil for export across the Turkish border — comes amid a continuing financial crisis facing the KRG caused by its attempts to counter incursions by insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis, across northern Iraq.
The company, which carries $575m of debt in high yield and convertible bonds, faces an April deadline to pay $26m. In December it received a downpayment of $15m from the KRG against monies owed of about $250m, following a release of funds to the autonomous government from federal authorities in Baghdad aimed at helping to finance Kurdish peshmerga fighters battling Isis.
However, since this initial payment neither Gulf Keystone, nor its exporting peers Genel Energy and DNO of Norway, have received any further funds in spite of the KRG’s commitment to begin payments to its oil exporters.
John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone’s chief executive, said on Friday: “We remain confident that a stable payment cycle will be established in the near term, and we expect to receive payment for all past and ongoing oil sales from Shaikan.”
However, he conceded the stress on the company’s balance sheet, stating: “A number of longer term financing options are currently being progressed by the board.”
Gulf Keystone is owed about $100m for crude exports to date, with a similarly sized amount additionally owed by the KRG to cover the company’s early-stage investment in cranking up production from fields.
London-listed Genel Energy, run by former BP chief executive Tony Hayward, and DNO of Norway are the largest oil exporters from Kurdistan and are also owed hundreds of millions of dollars from the KRG. Neither, however, faces the same financial strain in the short term as it awaits overdue payments from Erbil.
Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, DNO’s executive chairman, said on Thursday his company would also be diverting production to Kurdistan’s less lucrative local market to boost short-term cash flow. He added that DNO would scale its capital spending in the year according to “the timing and extent” of payments for previous and ongoing exports from Erbil.
He described DNO’s stance in Kurdistan as having “one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake”
Last Edit: 07 Feb 2015 09:39 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 08:38 #228

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I think this is the article from the other week. They have run another story on GKP ceasing exports from Kurdistan today.

January 28, 2015 5:34 pm
Smaller oil explorers’ borrowing costs soar as crude prices fall

Christopher Adams and Henny Sender


Investors are dumping bonds in oil and gas explorers seen as most vulnerable to the plunge in crude prices, with borrowing costs for some smaller companies soaring amid fears they could struggle to repay their debts.

Yields on bonds issued by groups including Afren, the London-listed African oil group, Kurdistan-focused explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum and EnQuest, the North Sea producer, have leapt since crude tumbled from last year’s highs of more than $115 a barrel. Bond yields, a gauge of implied borrowing costs, move inversely to prices.


The bond market flight reflects investor nervousness over how severe the drop in oil prices will be and how long it will last, said bankers. The debt sell-off has spread from US producers such as Swift Energy and Sandridge Energy, at the forefront of America’s shale boom, to groups based elsewhere.

The impact of falling oil prices is expected to hit many smaller producers harder than energy “majors” such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

If prices remain at current levels, up to 40 per cent of energy companies that have issued US “junk” bonds could default by 2017, according to a publication by JPMorgan’s private bank. “These companies can still raise money, but it’s hard,” said one banker.

As analysts’ future earnings estimates slide, doubts have grown about the ability of smaller companies to continue exploration and production.

“Some very small companies we deal with are in real trouble. They might just have months left. Larger companies have more options,” said another banker.

The yield on one Afren bond, with a 6.6 per cent coupon, has risen to 35 per cent from less than 6 per cent last July.

The yield on an EnQuest security with a 5.5 per cent coupon has jumped from less than 5 per cent to 13 per cent over the same period. Yields on GKP debt have jumped from 15 to 20 per cent to about 30 per cent.

Afren is among the worst hit. It is negotiating with lenders to delay a $50m debt repayment due by the end of January and on Tuesday warned that it would need to raise more than its market value in fresh equity to repair its balance sheet.

EnQuest has announced an easing of lending terms with its banks, triggering a rally in its bonds. GKP may look at options including renegotiation of debt covenants and equity issuance.

Producers could also hunt new investors. GSO, the credit arm of Blackstone, is taking advantage of the plunge in oil prices to create two new funds.

One fund, about $500m in size, will invest in the publicly traded debt of energy companies. The other fund, with a target size of about $1bn, will offer rescue finance to energy companies in the private market, people familiar with Blackstone said.


My view is that if it closes below 43 things will get bad.

Cheers,
M.
Last Edit: 07 Feb 2015 08:46 by Monkeyz. Reason: typo
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 07:01 #229

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F4T

Any chance you could copy that article/information please as the FT are asking for a subscription

Many thanks
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 16:20 #230

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www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b7b28e0-a61c-11e4-ab...e.html#axzz3Qyy7yAd5

Some info I found on the soaring bond yields...............

"Yields on GKP debt have jumped from 15 to 20 per cent to about 30 per cent."
Last Edit: 06 Feb 2015 16:22 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 12:28 #231

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I think a new low is coming very soon. They are clearly running low on cash due to high OPEX and bond servicing costs. It had to come out eventually.

Support on the weekly is now in the 30 area........


GKPWeekly05.02.15.png
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 11:25 #232

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This is why i said that if that resistance gets back tested its bad....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp6thfeb2015.png

remo wrote:
This has not officially bottomed...
This has to finish above the down trend line first. This also has the recent triangle resistance above current price.A back test respect wont be good.
Wait for a 123 low formation to signal a possible low.
There is no buy signal as of yet


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp2ndfeb2015.png
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 18:45 #233

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Apologies, I adjusted the upper trendline so main resistance not quite tested yet. Conclusion is pretty much the same though.


GKPDailyRev03.02.15.png
Last Edit: 03 Feb 2015 18:47 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 18:02 #234

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Chart says it all!


GKPDaily03.02.15.png



45 support held nicely after some deliberation and the upper trendline (& minor one) tested today along with 20SMA. The positive is that the RSI resistance line is broken.

I would expect these to hold and the sp to retreat from these points as this is a group of individual resistances in the same area. It will take strength to break them. I see the lower trendline in the 45 area being tested again before long.

I can't figure out why no one seems worried about the bonds issued by this company.

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 03 Feb 2015 18:03 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 12:38 #235

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as long as GKP is below the 200EMA then stay out of this.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 12:37 #236

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you can see the back test today...Thats resistance...Gkp has to finish above that line to make it void.
The main down trendline is at 59 so plenty of resistance near by..
as for the 123 low formation,,,,
This will require a pull back for that to be a possibility..But the bigger 123 low breakout will come when 85 is broken.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp3rdfeb2015.png
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 08:15 #237

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Doh ,,,, having had more time to read your chart Remo and being more awake ,, I can see that you are referring to a back test of the previous t line at 54 and then a retrace would not be good ,,,sorry
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 07:52 #238

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Remo,

At what level do you have your '3' of a 1-2-3 low please? As far back as early Dovember 2013 or more recently??

Thanks
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 06:37 #239

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A back test respect wont be good.
...............................................

Hi Remo ,,, I just wanted clarify the above ,, as we are not above any t line at the moment I cant see a back test possibility so are you referring to a back test of the recent lows ,,,,,,many thanks
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GKP 02 Feb 2015 19:22 #240

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This has not officially bottomed...
This has to finish above the down trend line first. This also has the recent triangle resistance above current price.A back test respect wont be good.
Wait for a 123 low formation to signal a possible low.
There is no buy signal as of yet


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp2ndfeb2015.png
Information Purposes Only, Do Your Own Research
remo
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GKP 02 Feb 2015 17:33 #241

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Hi Ian

Decent volume and a decent rise. Do you think the bottom is in? Are you still waiting for further confirmation?

Cheers
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GKP - Good News - Oil and Gas Law Passed 29 Jan 2015 23:29 #242

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Oil and Gas passed....

Middle East News
Iraq’s Parliament Approves 2015 Budget Following Oil Price Debate
Budget is Based on $56 a Barrel, Lowered From $60 a Barrel in Earlier Drafts



By
Ghassan Adnan and
Nour Malas
Jan. 29, 2015 2:36 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS

BAGHDAD—Iraq’s parliament has approved the country’s 2015 budget following weeks of debate on lower oil prices and how to write in a landmark oil export deal reached last year between Baghdad and the northern Kurdistan region.

The budget is based on $56 a barrel of crude, lowered from $60 a barrel in earlier drafts. Despite lower projected revenues from oil sales, the budget projects a deficit of $20 billion compared with $40 billion in an earlier version.

The vote Thursday marked a step forward, as rival blocs in parliament agreed to push through a budget that is badly needed for fiscal planning as Iraq’s finances reel from a plunge in global oil prices and a costly military campaign against Islamic extremists.

Iraq didn’t pass a 2014 budget.

Since December, parliament meetings to approve the 2015 draft budget have been bogged down by debate, mostly over what oil price to base the budget on and how to account for exports from the semiautonomous Kurdistan region.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said this year’s budget would be an austerity budget, focusing on slashing the bloated public sector and freeing up funds for military spending as Iraqi forces battle Islamic State.

Parliament’s economy and investment committee had initially described the draft as “a budget of punishment for the Iraqi people.” Some committee members criticized the draft—which outlines revenue generation under an oil export deal struck in December between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government—unfairly benefits the Kurdistan region, “while the rest of Iraq suffers austerity.”

Sunnis in parliament, too, had threatened to boycott the vote because the draft budget didn’t include funding provisions for a national guard—a security force meant to empower Sunnis within the Shiite-led government as it fights Islamic State.

Opening the voting session, parliament speaker Salim al-Jabouri said all disagreements over the budget had been resolved. “Iraqis have been waiting for this for a long time,” Mr. Jabouri said.

—Ali A. Nabhan contributed to this article.

Write to Nour Malas at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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GKP 28 Jan 2015 05:46 #243

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Hi Richard,

I would say that it finished on support, so it is at a critical point. It did breach it intra- day though, which weakens it. Difficult to say what might happen but we have the 42.25 low below us plus I had 34p on the weekly I think (see an earlier post).

You are correct about volume - 6MM is too low to suggest a bottom has been reached but often with GKP the volume comes on the rise, not the fall. 6MM does suggest that some see this level as a buy though as it is well above the recent average.

If in doubt, sit out is my maxim.

F4T
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GKP 27 Jan 2015 18:27 #244

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Hi F4T

What are your latest thoughts? Finished below the long term support and volume still nothing special at 6m.

Do you think 30s are looking more likely?

Cheers
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GKP 26 Jan 2015 01:21 #245

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You da' man F4T!
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GKP 24 Jan 2015 20:51 #246

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Thank you again for your thoughts F4T
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GKP 24 Jan 2015 18:58 #247

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GKPDaily23.01.15.png


Quick update on the daily:
The test and then break of the important 61.6% fib let to it becoming strong resistance for a week. We then had a decisive break of the short term support at 53.50 to give all but a complete 100% retracement. Lovely double backtest on the short term RSI line.

Will 48.50 hold? No, not now we have a close below 50. My view is still that we will see at least 45.25, being the long term support.

Let's see if we get some kind of operational update now that we are below 50 ;)

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 24 Jan 2015 19:15 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 14 Jan 2015 11:52 #248

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Thought i'd review the charts again!

Monthly:
Not much to report here. Falling wedge, clear downtrend, support in the 47.50 area

GKPMonthly14.01.15.png

Weekly:
Much more interesting. Same formation, long term support in 49 area then 34 for the wedge, RSI resistance held once again. RSI support looks to correspond to 34 support.

GKPWeekly14.01.15.png

Daily:
Trendline supports at 52.50 and 45.25. Horizontal at 48.50. RSI approaching short term support line (certainly touched today), so we will see if it holds. Long term RSI support looks to correspond to 45.25 long term trendline support.

GKPDaily14.01.15.png


In summary, volume has been low recently (since the last rise to 85). Time for volatility and volume approaching IMO.

SP touched the first daily support area today. If this breaks to close then all timeframes indicate a break of 50 which threatens the 48.50 horizontal support.

So the question is how low will this go? I see a continued drift lower, certainly to 45 and with 34 a possibility.

It's a long time until the financials come out so crude oil will remain the driver here. The $60 talk has turned quickly to sub $40. IMO if the talk is there then the traders will target those levels, particularly if US stockpiles continue to grow.

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 14 Jan 2015 11:54 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 13 Jan 2015 13:14 #249

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Hi Diver,

I use fibs as follows:
- 23.6%, 38.2% & 50% retrace = normal retraces as trend/move continues. The shallower the retrace, the stronger the trend.
- between 50% and 61.8% retrace = trend/move in danger of failing/reversing
- more than 61.8% = likely/high risk of 100% retrace of move. Think of the mountain climber! 61.8% is the last point of no return.

I believe that the above is usual for technicians.

I agree with your other points.

Cheers
F4T
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GKP 13 Jan 2015 09:29 #250

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

A fairly standard expectation for a retrace is between the 50 - 61.8% levels; that said it would be normal to expect a retrace to a support in that area - and so we get 57. Of course, there is nothing set in stone and the sp certainly doesn't have to stop there. Obviously, if the 48 fails the downtrend continues and things are really bleak....
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