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TOPIC: GKP

GKP 12 Feb 2015 12:10 #151

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Hi All,

as predicted, this is in real trouble and has now set a new low. As per my chart, the long term support of 45 was the key area. I highlighted 45 some weeks ago. Once that went we could expect new lows. It is notable that 45 didn't even back test today. The gap is still the best chance for a bounce btu still risky when liquidity is an issue. Whatever financing options GKP come up with, it will be bad for shareholders (they have a record of poor and expensive financing). Once GKP bottoms though, I think there will be excellent opportunities for 100% minimum, assuming they do manage to finance that is.

Wait for the financing detail, then wait again.



GKPDaily11.02.15.png



GL
F4T

PS: TF, I have the weekly support at 29. The Monthly support was pierced yesterday and that is never good.
Last Edit: 12 Feb 2015 12:18 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 12 Feb 2015 11:44 #152

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its clear to see why i always say when a share finishes near strong support its best not to take the long trade.
GKP has clearly broken strong support .. Now if thats back tests it in a few days time just short it from the back test area with tight stops.
warning signs were here for a while especially the back test of the triangle breakout the other day.That was the perfect short area.
lower prices should follow now so be warned. There are no buy signals on this share for a long time.
just wait for a 123 low formation before considering any longs, or if your a day trader then look to go long only at strong support on a first attempt basis.
good luck.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp12feb2015.png
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GKP 12 Feb 2015 08:57 #153

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Long term weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...HBoE=&symbol=L%5EGKP :(

Close up, 24p (falling weekly) the place the best place to buy imho :ohmy:
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Mo%3D&symbol=L%5EGKP

we do have a RSI divergence on the weekly, which makes a rebound possible at any time, but i'm waiting for 24p, ;) so lets see. 24p in terms of R/R make sense imho...

Regards,
Trendfriend.
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GKP 11 Feb 2015 10:51 #154

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there is strong support at 42.25 but the fact that gkp is hovering around this area is suggesting that this level could have a serious test and a break would be bad for gkp as there aint any major supports until the low 20s.
The recent triangle break to the downside is also bearish for this share..
Support...42.25,,,,37,,,23.75,,,21.5


monthly chart of gkp so as you can see the levels more clearly


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp11thfeb2015montly.png
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GKP 08 Feb 2015 13:08 #155

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For those looking to trade the fall, here is a reminder of the key levels. The GAP has to be a reasonable target but IMO any trading tomorrow is very risky. Best to let things settle and get fully digested.


GKPDaily06.02.15supports.png



GL
F4T
Last Edit: 08 Feb 2015 13:20 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 09:25 #156

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Thank Monkeyz. Here is the other article. I know that this is a technical site but this is important for those holding and is why I have, on a few occasions in posts, noted their dubious cost structure. The face value of the bonds are more than the market cap at close yesterday, though they would be trading much lower than par value.
All the equity investment from shareholders over the years has been eroded. We can see what crippling bond costs have done to Afren. Not sure selling crude cheap on the domestic market will do it. They may have to revert to an equity issue/placing and dilution. Sub-43 is a given now the following article has spelled out the problem clearly.

GL
F4T


February 6, 2015 5:37 pm
Gulf Keystone abandons oil exports from Kurdistan
Michael Kavanagh

Gulf Keystone Petroleum has abandoned exports of oil from Kurdistan because of delays in payment from the region’s autonomous government in Erbil.
Shares in the London-listed company slid 6 per cent to 49.25p on Friday after it said it had suspended crude oil deliveries by truck to Turkey for eventual sale to the international market amid the logjam on payments.

The abandonment of exports from Gulf Keystone’s flagship Shaikan field, where production hit an average of 40,000 barrels of oil a day in December, comes in spite of an apparent agreement to secure regular payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government in December.
Gulf Keystone said on Friday that instead of delivering further cargoes for sale through the KRG’s oil marketing agency, it would instead divert smaller volumes of production for local sale that, though it would command a lower price, offered “the prospect of receiving revenues in the near term”.
The decision to abandon its export efforts — which has seen convoys of up to 360 vehicles a day departing Shaikan to deliver oil for export across the Turkish border — comes amid a continuing financial crisis facing the KRG caused by its attempts to counter incursions by insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis, across northern Iraq.
The company, which carries $575m of debt in high yield and convertible bonds, faces an April deadline to pay $26m. In December it received a downpayment of $15m from the KRG against monies owed of about $250m, following a release of funds to the autonomous government from federal authorities in Baghdad aimed at helping to finance Kurdish peshmerga fighters battling Isis.
However, since this initial payment neither Gulf Keystone, nor its exporting peers Genel Energy and DNO of Norway, have received any further funds in spite of the KRG’s commitment to begin payments to its oil exporters.
John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone’s chief executive, said on Friday: “We remain confident that a stable payment cycle will be established in the near term, and we expect to receive payment for all past and ongoing oil sales from Shaikan.”
However, he conceded the stress on the company’s balance sheet, stating: “A number of longer term financing options are currently being progressed by the board.”
Gulf Keystone is owed about $100m for crude exports to date, with a similarly sized amount additionally owed by the KRG to cover the company’s early-stage investment in cranking up production from fields.
London-listed Genel Energy, run by former BP chief executive Tony Hayward, and DNO of Norway are the largest oil exporters from Kurdistan and are also owed hundreds of millions of dollars from the KRG. Neither, however, faces the same financial strain in the short term as it awaits overdue payments from Erbil.
Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, DNO’s executive chairman, said on Thursday his company would also be diverting production to Kurdistan’s less lucrative local market to boost short-term cash flow. He added that DNO would scale its capital spending in the year according to “the timing and extent” of payments for previous and ongoing exports from Erbil.
He described DNO’s stance in Kurdistan as having “one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake”
Last Edit: 07 Feb 2015 09:39 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 08:38 #157

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I think this is the article from the other week. They have run another story on GKP ceasing exports from Kurdistan today.

January 28, 2015 5:34 pm
Smaller oil explorers’ borrowing costs soar as crude prices fall

Christopher Adams and Henny Sender


Investors are dumping bonds in oil and gas explorers seen as most vulnerable to the plunge in crude prices, with borrowing costs for some smaller companies soaring amid fears they could struggle to repay their debts.

Yields on bonds issued by groups including Afren, the London-listed African oil group, Kurdistan-focused explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum and EnQuest, the North Sea producer, have leapt since crude tumbled from last year’s highs of more than $115 a barrel. Bond yields, a gauge of implied borrowing costs, move inversely to prices.


The bond market flight reflects investor nervousness over how severe the drop in oil prices will be and how long it will last, said bankers. The debt sell-off has spread from US producers such as Swift Energy and Sandridge Energy, at the forefront of America’s shale boom, to groups based elsewhere.

The impact of falling oil prices is expected to hit many smaller producers harder than energy “majors” such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

If prices remain at current levels, up to 40 per cent of energy companies that have issued US “junk” bonds could default by 2017, according to a publication by JPMorgan’s private bank. “These companies can still raise money, but it’s hard,” said one banker.

As analysts’ future earnings estimates slide, doubts have grown about the ability of smaller companies to continue exploration and production.

“Some very small companies we deal with are in real trouble. They might just have months left. Larger companies have more options,” said another banker.

The yield on one Afren bond, with a 6.6 per cent coupon, has risen to 35 per cent from less than 6 per cent last July.

The yield on an EnQuest security with a 5.5 per cent coupon has jumped from less than 5 per cent to 13 per cent over the same period. Yields on GKP debt have jumped from 15 to 20 per cent to about 30 per cent.

Afren is among the worst hit. It is negotiating with lenders to delay a $50m debt repayment due by the end of January and on Tuesday warned that it would need to raise more than its market value in fresh equity to repair its balance sheet.

EnQuest has announced an easing of lending terms with its banks, triggering a rally in its bonds. GKP may look at options including renegotiation of debt covenants and equity issuance.

Producers could also hunt new investors. GSO, the credit arm of Blackstone, is taking advantage of the plunge in oil prices to create two new funds.

One fund, about $500m in size, will invest in the publicly traded debt of energy companies. The other fund, with a target size of about $1bn, will offer rescue finance to energy companies in the private market, people familiar with Blackstone said.


My view is that if it closes below 43 things will get bad.

Cheers,
M.
Last Edit: 07 Feb 2015 08:46 by Monkeyz. Reason: typo
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GKP 07 Feb 2015 07:01 #158

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F4T

Any chance you could copy that article/information please as the FT are asking for a subscription

Many thanks
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 16:20 #159

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www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b7b28e0-a61c-11e4-ab...e.html#axzz3Qyy7yAd5

Some info I found on the soaring bond yields...............

"Yields on GKP debt have jumped from 15 to 20 per cent to about 30 per cent."
Last Edit: 06 Feb 2015 16:22 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 12:28 #160

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I think a new low is coming very soon. They are clearly running low on cash due to high OPEX and bond servicing costs. It had to come out eventually.

Support on the weekly is now in the 30 area........


GKPWeekly05.02.15.png
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GKP 06 Feb 2015 11:25 #161

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This is why i said that if that resistance gets back tested its bad....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp6thfeb2015.png

remo wrote:
This has not officially bottomed...
This has to finish above the down trend line first. This also has the recent triangle resistance above current price.A back test respect wont be good.
Wait for a 123 low formation to signal a possible low.
There is no buy signal as of yet


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp2ndfeb2015.png
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 18:45 #162

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Apologies, I adjusted the upper trendline so main resistance not quite tested yet. Conclusion is pretty much the same though.


GKPDailyRev03.02.15.png
Last Edit: 03 Feb 2015 18:47 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 18:02 #163

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Chart says it all!


GKPDaily03.02.15.png



45 support held nicely after some deliberation and the upper trendline (& minor one) tested today along with 20SMA. The positive is that the RSI resistance line is broken.

I would expect these to hold and the sp to retreat from these points as this is a group of individual resistances in the same area. It will take strength to break them. I see the lower trendline in the 45 area being tested again before long.

I can't figure out why no one seems worried about the bonds issued by this company.

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 03 Feb 2015 18:03 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 12:38 #164

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as long as GKP is below the 200EMA then stay out of this.
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 12:37 #165

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you can see the back test today...Thats resistance...Gkp has to finish above that line to make it void.
The main down trendline is at 59 so plenty of resistance near by..
as for the 123 low formation,,,,
This will require a pull back for that to be a possibility..But the bigger 123 low breakout will come when 85 is broken.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp3rdfeb2015.png
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 08:15 #166

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Doh ,,,, having had more time to read your chart Remo and being more awake ,, I can see that you are referring to a back test of the previous t line at 54 and then a retrace would not be good ,,,sorry
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 07:52 #167

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Remo,

At what level do you have your '3' of a 1-2-3 low please? As far back as early Dovember 2013 or more recently??

Thanks
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GKP 03 Feb 2015 06:37 #168

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A back test respect wont be good.
...............................................

Hi Remo ,,, I just wanted clarify the above ,, as we are not above any t line at the moment I cant see a back test possibility so are you referring to a back test of the recent lows ,,,,,,many thanks
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GKP 02 Feb 2015 19:22 #169

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This has not officially bottomed...
This has to finish above the down trend line first. This also has the recent triangle resistance above current price.A back test respect wont be good.
Wait for a 123 low formation to signal a possible low.
There is no buy signal as of yet


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp2ndfeb2015.png
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GKP 02 Feb 2015 17:33 #170

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Hi Ian

Decent volume and a decent rise. Do you think the bottom is in? Are you still waiting for further confirmation?

Cheers
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GKP - Good News - Oil and Gas Law Passed 29 Jan 2015 23:29 #171

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Oil and Gas passed....

Middle East News
Iraq’s Parliament Approves 2015 Budget Following Oil Price Debate
Budget is Based on $56 a Barrel, Lowered From $60 a Barrel in Earlier Drafts



By
Ghassan Adnan and
Nour Malas
Jan. 29, 2015 2:36 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS

BAGHDAD—Iraq’s parliament has approved the country’s 2015 budget following weeks of debate on lower oil prices and how to write in a landmark oil export deal reached last year between Baghdad and the northern Kurdistan region.

The budget is based on $56 a barrel of crude, lowered from $60 a barrel in earlier drafts. Despite lower projected revenues from oil sales, the budget projects a deficit of $20 billion compared with $40 billion in an earlier version.

The vote Thursday marked a step forward, as rival blocs in parliament agreed to push through a budget that is badly needed for fiscal planning as Iraq’s finances reel from a plunge in global oil prices and a costly military campaign against Islamic extremists.

Iraq didn’t pass a 2014 budget.

Since December, parliament meetings to approve the 2015 draft budget have been bogged down by debate, mostly over what oil price to base the budget on and how to account for exports from the semiautonomous Kurdistan region.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said this year’s budget would be an austerity budget, focusing on slashing the bloated public sector and freeing up funds for military spending as Iraqi forces battle Islamic State.

Parliament’s economy and investment committee had initially described the draft as “a budget of punishment for the Iraqi people.” Some committee members criticized the draft—which outlines revenue generation under an oil export deal struck in December between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government—unfairly benefits the Kurdistan region, “while the rest of Iraq suffers austerity.”

Sunnis in parliament, too, had threatened to boycott the vote because the draft budget didn’t include funding provisions for a national guard—a security force meant to empower Sunnis within the Shiite-led government as it fights Islamic State.

Opening the voting session, parliament speaker Salim al-Jabouri said all disagreements over the budget had been resolved. “Iraqis have been waiting for this for a long time,” Mr. Jabouri said.

—Ali A. Nabhan contributed to this article.

Write to Nour Malas at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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GKP 28 Jan 2015 05:46 #172

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Hi Richard,

I would say that it finished on support, so it is at a critical point. It did breach it intra- day though, which weakens it. Difficult to say what might happen but we have the 42.25 low below us plus I had 34p on the weekly I think (see an earlier post).

You are correct about volume - 6MM is too low to suggest a bottom has been reached but often with GKP the volume comes on the rise, not the fall. 6MM does suggest that some see this level as a buy though as it is well above the recent average.

If in doubt, sit out is my maxim.

F4T
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GKP 27 Jan 2015 18:27 #173

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Hi F4T

What are your latest thoughts? Finished below the long term support and volume still nothing special at 6m.

Do you think 30s are looking more likely?

Cheers
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GKP 26 Jan 2015 01:21 #174

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You da' man F4T!
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GKP 24 Jan 2015 20:51 #175

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Thank you again for your thoughts F4T
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GKP 24 Jan 2015 18:58 #176

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GKPDaily23.01.15.png


Quick update on the daily:
The test and then break of the important 61.6% fib let to it becoming strong resistance for a week. We then had a decisive break of the short term support at 53.50 to give all but a complete 100% retracement. Lovely double backtest on the short term RSI line.

Will 48.50 hold? No, not now we have a close below 50. My view is still that we will see at least 45.25, being the long term support.

Let's see if we get some kind of operational update now that we are below 50 ;)

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 24 Jan 2015 19:15 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 14 Jan 2015 11:52 #177

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Thought i'd review the charts again!

Monthly:
Not much to report here. Falling wedge, clear downtrend, support in the 47.50 area

GKPMonthly14.01.15.png

Weekly:
Much more interesting. Same formation, long term support in 49 area then 34 for the wedge, RSI resistance held once again. RSI support looks to correspond to 34 support.

GKPWeekly14.01.15.png

Daily:
Trendline supports at 52.50 and 45.25. Horizontal at 48.50. RSI approaching short term support line (certainly touched today), so we will see if it holds. Long term RSI support looks to correspond to 45.25 long term trendline support.

GKPDaily14.01.15.png


In summary, volume has been low recently (since the last rise to 85). Time for volatility and volume approaching IMO.

SP touched the first daily support area today. If this breaks to close then all timeframes indicate a break of 50 which threatens the 48.50 horizontal support.

So the question is how low will this go? I see a continued drift lower, certainly to 45 and with 34 a possibility.

It's a long time until the financials come out so crude oil will remain the driver here. The $60 talk has turned quickly to sub $40. IMO if the talk is there then the traders will target those levels, particularly if US stockpiles continue to grow.

GL
F4T
Last Edit: 14 Jan 2015 11:54 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 13 Jan 2015 13:14 #178

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Hi Diver,

I use fibs as follows:
- 23.6%, 38.2% & 50% retrace = normal retraces as trend/move continues. The shallower the retrace, the stronger the trend.
- between 50% and 61.8% retrace = trend/move in danger of failing/reversing
- more than 61.8% = likely/high risk of 100% retrace of move. Think of the mountain climber! 61.8% is the last point of no return.

I believe that the above is usual for technicians.

I agree with your other points.

Cheers
F4T
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GKP 13 Jan 2015 09:29 #179

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONE.png

A fairly standard expectation for a retrace is between the 50 - 61.8% levels; that said it would be normal to expect a retrace to a support in that area - and so we get 57. Of course, there is nothing set in stone and the sp certainly doesn't have to stop there. Obviously, if the 48 fails the downtrend continues and things are really bleak....
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GKP 13 Jan 2015 09:05 #180

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Hi SE,
you can have a penetration of trendlines intra day but the close is the most important point, so a rise above it to 70 is not a break. Also, a close above can also fail.

I gave a high of 83 on the move up from 42 and my view has not changed. It made 85 so it was a good call. Above that 89.50 is strong resistance, so we now have both 85 and 89.50 as resistance within a few ticks so a break through will need a lot of strength. Where will that come from?

You have to always have an eye on fundamentals whatever the charts say. If you trade long or invest, there has to be fundamental value in the stock or people won;t buy it. If you trade short there needs to be an inherent weakness in the stock to support that stance.

I have said it before and will so again; Firstly, the CPR (at $100+ oil) gave an asset value of 68p. Forget all the bn's OIP BS that went before. It is irrelevant to analysts and the city. Until the reserve report changes then that is the benchmark for the stock no matter how much they produce. Oil is now heading for $40, so the DCF value will be less on a lower forward oil curve.
Also, GKP has a high finding cost and (i think) a high opex/bbl number, so what is their b/e? This is what the analysts will be looking for when the annual report comes out. The RNS re: power/fuel was all about making the market believe that their costs are low. I don;t believe it. Heavy oil, sulpur, trucking costs, security, above average salaries. It all points to high opex.
If opex/bbl is lower than anticipated, expect a rise but not above the resistances in the 80's. If opex/bbl is high IMO this will crash as oil is set to stay low at least until the summer.

The annual report will be interesting and a challenge for the auditors given the management of this company.

Remember, 57 is the 61.8% fib and this was tested today. After that 48.50 is crucial. We have had three lower highs and three lower lows since 85. This is a short term downtrend in addition to the long term one.

My advice is wait for the annual report and react to that.

GL
F4T



Slow Eddie wrote:
Was just wondering F4T if the strong downtrend line you have in blue is broken by going above to 70 or more on reasonably strong move would that mean the downtrend is then broken? And a new trend forming?
And can I also ask if your doubts about it going above high 80's ( to which I listen with great attention) are chart based or based on what you mentioned about fundamental values.
I do find it interesting the relation or non relation with fundamental values as I believe most chartists discount them entirely.
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GKP 06 Jan 2015 10:39 #181

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For real strength to come back to GKP this has to break above 85p. This is the most important level currently as the 123 low breakout point and the 200EMA is at the same spot. 2 levels of resistances together so strong resistance. A break above this level should be powerful and signal a change in trend.
Early entry could be a break above 71 but with tight stops as this area is roughly where the main down trend line is(69), well below this but best to go above the strong resistance for entry.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp6thjan2015.png

Resistance..69.75(trendline),,,,71,,,85(200ema and 123 low)
support....50.5(trendline),,,,48.5,,42.5(very strong support)
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GKP 05 Jan 2015 22:29 #182

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Was just wondering F4T if the strong downtrend line you have in blue is broken by going above to 70 or more on reasonably strong move would that mean the downtrend is then broken? And a new trend forming?
And can I also ask if your doubts about it going above high 80's ( to which I listen with great attention) are chart based or based on what you mentioned about fundamental values.
I do find it interesting the relation or non relation with fundamental values as I believe most chartists discount them entirely.
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GKP 31 Dec 2014 08:01 #183

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Remo,

My apologies re: changing the software - I was logged on with I.E. instead of my usual Chrome, hence the difference. I.E is weird! For any of you guys posting charts, don't use I.E. as it will force the links to the bottom right-hand corner of your browser and not expand them as you would like.
Happy New Year Chartsview!
Last Edit: 31 Dec 2014 08:02 by diver993.
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GKP 30 Dec 2014 14:55 #184

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Ive not changed any setting on my software???
It must be your browser or your end as every thing still looks the same on my computers.
Happy New yeardiver993 wrote:
KK,

The chart sizes question: Remo appears to have changed something in his software and charts now show to the bottom right-hand corner, which I personally think is useless, so the external link is the only way to see them properly
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GKP 30 Dec 2014 00:02 #185

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Thanks for that F4T :)

..and thank you for taking time to post your thoughts over the Christmas period. I wasn't gonna post myself but as you made the effort..... I thought I'd have a little look from a different perspective.

What I do notice is a symmetrical triangle on the chart - my chart's a bit slap dash, but it's identified by black dashed lines (yup - slap dash! ha, ha!) I've copied each converging line and plopped them roughly to make parallel channels to roughly see upside/downside targets and they do tie in with the fibs somewhat. The thing is, it's tough to call direction as it's slap bang in the middle of range for me at the moment. Also it's not the most reliable pattern until it breaks either way. Though if it does break to the downside, it's usually decisive, so the 50p and a co-ordinated RNS (LOL - very true) would be the important downside area for a bounce, and also there is more room to move upwards to the 76p area without a breakout.


GULFKEYSTONEtriangle.png



From an Elliot wave perspective - as long as it doesn't breach the 42.25p low this can still be the wave 2 pullback, if it does.....'twas all just a correction to prevailing downtrend. :(
However a bounce above 48.5p if it has peaked, may identify a minor i and ii wave before iii of the 3 if that makes sense?!

I can't see a lower low though, as I reckon oil is around it's lows now and it's correction should be up taking the sector up for a ride.(hopefully!) But this is GKP, so never say never, just watch those targets I'd say. What the hell 76p first, then a pullback! Ha, ha, Happy to be wrong ;)

Here's a bit of info on symmetrical triangles for anyone not familiar.
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart...riangle_continuation

Happy new year all. Back in the New Year.
Last Edit: 30 Dec 2014 00:03 by KoolKeith. Reason: bad punctuation - damn!
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GKP 29 Dec 2014 14:11 #186

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24.12.14Daily.png


24.12.14Dailyzoom.png


Hi All,

looked at this again but no change in view. SP still held by same downtrend line. Top value still in high 80's which is a must sell if it gets there for holders.

Expect this to retrace from current level, key areas being 60.25, then 57 (61.8% fib). After that 48.50 and then 42.25. 57 is important because if that goes then we will see 40's.

IMO, per my previous post, we would have seen 42.25 (or at minimum the uptrend line at 44.50/45) on the last fall if it wasn't for that suspect and timely RNS. You have to say that GKP play the RNS game well and people buy in every time. The financials will bear out the opex questions as those are audited. Expect another RNS when we break 50 again :)



Regards
F4T
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 15:55 #187

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Hi KK,
will post a chart overt the Christmas period. Currently my ceiling still holds though, the stock is not worth more. A fresh look might change these views but I doubt it. Will also look at all the recent posts as I haven't had a chance to in recent weeks.

I didn't say that the CEO hadn't quoted the 400k, I said that the number was ridiculous. Anyone with a cursory knowledge of upstream field costs or any costing for that matter would see that. So the costs were previously 400k +the market value of own fuel now consumed in their place? Fairy tales....
GKP has a sound history of inflating numbers lol.

Merry Xmas all.

F4T



GKP has a long history of inflating numbers.KoolKeith wrote:
F4T - he's right CEO said savings of $400,000 per month, and he's right - GKP is owed $250 million in back costs, also regular payments pending so it is neither totally ridiculous or pure fantasy, listen to what he sayeth as he sayeth the truth....even though this shouldn't matter how you see the charts.

However, seeing how ridiculous you thought it was, yet being the truth - will it change your mind about dancing on the 80's ceiling?....Nothing to do with Lionel Ritchie, but see what I did. ;)

I'd love to see your thoughts in a chart F4T 'cos ya got game my friend! ...Well you've called it better than anyone!

and "it is incredible how the two often collide in mutual harmony" ;)


Merry Christmas y'all!
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 14:53 #188

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KK,

The chart sizes question: Remo appears to have changed something in his software and charts now show to the bottom right-hand corner, which I personally think is useless, so the external link is the only way to see them properly
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 14:48 #189

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF%20KEYSTONElongView.png

KK, the labelling is just a question of interpretation. If we are being strictly accurate maybe we should label them (b) / 2as they could eventually be either. Labelling causes so much dispute I usually don't post labelled charts anymore but you did ask so this is my version. I don't hold it to be perfect nor even correct, but it means something to me, and that is all that is important. Equally, I respect other versions of the 'truth' as they mean something to those that draw them. I'm just hoping that 42.50 is the low ;)
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 12:02 #190

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F4T - he's right CEO said savings of $400,000 per month, and he's right - GKP is owed $250 million in back costs, also regular payments pending so it is neither totally ridiculous or pure fantasy, listen to what he sayeth as he sayeth the truth....even though this shouldn't matter how you see the charts.

However, seeing how ridiculous you thought it was, yet being the truth - will it change your mind about dancing on the 80's ceiling?....Nothing to do with Lionel Ritchie, but see what I did. ;)

I'd love to see your thoughts in a chart F4T 'cos ya got game my friend! ...Well you've called it better than anyone!

and "it is incredible how the two often collide in mutual harmony" ;)


Merry Christmas y'all!
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 10:41 #191

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Food4Thought wrote:
Sorry, but i find the notion that you can save 400k on monthly field energy costs totally ridiculous. Pure fantasy IMO on several levels. Are they sending power to Erbil lol.
AdeMcG wrote:
As for "Non earning" a second (of what hopefully will be regular payments)from the KRG is imminent and as they owe some £250 million there must be quite a backlog of payments to come, perhaps they could fund the pipeline on behalf of GKP?

There is the £400K monthly reduction in costs that will come from using their own produce for energy uses on plant.
A trial has already happened with Fishkhabour pipeline entry point for Shaikan crude which is only 100Km away as opposed to the 1000K away the current market point (Turkish Cost). Quite a reduction per barrel when this comes off.

Oh and we will have an RNS this week (maybe next) on the 40K bopd production (increase from 23K).

Put this in with the "never been better" political arena (KRG and Baghdad agreements - this would leave only the Oil & Gas law to sort), Budget seems to be agreed and will be formalized soon) and you have the best backdrop "fundamentally" for GKP ever.


It is all in the RNS dated 16th December, my error is printing £ instead of USD $:

ir1.euroinvestor.com/asp/ir/GulfKeystone...id=13075308&ishtml=1


"An amine plant is currently being tested at PF-2, to be followed by the similar plant at PF-1 in early 2015. The amine plants will sweeten the associated gas stream, allowing it to be used as fuel for the production facilities instead of diesel, representing savings of up to US$400,000 per month to the project".

This is where I see the failings in "trading", as an "investor" would know this already ;) :P
Last Edit: 23 Dec 2014 10:43 by AdeMcG.
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 09:42 #192

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Sorry, but i find the notion that you can save 400k on monthly field energy costs totally ridiculous. Pure fantasy IMO on several levels. Are they sending power to Erbil lol.
AdeMcG wrote:
As for "Non earning" a second (of what hopefully will be regular payments)from the KRG is imminent and as they owe some £250 million there must be quite a backlog of payments to come, perhaps they could fund the pipeline on behalf of GKP?

There is the £400K monthly reduction in costs that will come from using their own produce for energy uses on plant.
A trial has already happened with Fishkhabour pipeline entry point for Shaikan crude which is only 100Km away as opposed to the 1000K away the current market point (Turkish Cost). Quite a reduction per barrel when this comes off.

Oh and we will have an RNS this week (maybe next) on the 40K bopd production (increase from 23K).

Put this in with the "never been better" political arena (KRG and Baghdad agreements - this would leave only the Oil & Gas law to sort), Budget seems to be agreed and will be formalized soon) and you have the best backdrop "fundamentally" for GKP ever.
Last Edit: 23 Dec 2014 10:01 by Food4Thought.
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GKP 23 Dec 2014 02:10 #193

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I'm pretty much looking at the same thing as the last chart I posted, which is the same thing Ade McG is looking at, we're in minor waves of the 3 i'm not sure if today was i or we've had i at 69p, too early to say, indicators up though. Diver - quick question, why do you have low of 42.25p
labelled (b) and Wavesurfer has (II) potential bottom of supercycle? Can you post a zoomed out chart so I can see your counts by any chance?

Thanks in advance.


GULFKEYSTONEcount.png


screencast.com/t/9J8bT79YLB

P.S Diver I tried the dimensions you mentioned for screen resolution but looked the same and I couldn't read notes I'd put on! Hence the edit and added link.

PPS - here's WTI crude chart, I've looked at a few charts and they suggest a correction up from these levels before another leg down mid next year - they mostly suggest we're at bottom of wave 3 down so wave up for correction through first half of next year before last leg down. Here's a trendline chart with no counts - screencast.com/t/Y7hqhmihTx

Laters
Last Edit: 23 Dec 2014 02:22 by KoolKeith. Reason: missed a bit.
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 21:15 #194

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Fundamentals having nothing whatsoever to do with charts; they merely compliment and substantiate what the charts are telling us ;) But it is incredible how the two often collide in mutual harmony :)
Last Edit: 22 Dec 2014 21:15 by diver993.
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 19:06 #195

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As for "Non earning" a second (of what hopefully will be regular payments)from the KRG is imminent and as they owe some £250 million there must be quite a backlog of payments to come, perhaps they could fund the pipeline on behalf of GKP?

There is the £400K monthly reduction in costs that will come from using their own produce for energy uses on plant.
A trial has already happened with Fishkhabour pipeline entry point for Shaikan crude which is only 100Km away as opposed to the 1000K away the current market point (Turkish Cost). Quite a reduction per barrel when this comes off.

Oh and we will have an RNS this week (maybe next) on the 40K bopd production (increase from 23K).

Put this in with the "never been better" political arena (KRG and Baghdad agreements - this would leave only the Oil & Gas law to sort), Budget seems to be agreed and will be formalized soon) and you have the best backdrop "fundamentally" for GKP ever.
Last Edit: 22 Dec 2014 19:09 by AdeMcG.
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 18:13 #196

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The thing is TF on that logic ... then the mischievous suggestion might follow that any rise to 117 or beyond can only be based on the buying of...er...chartists or the over hopeful... aka the deluded. Because no fundamental based investor working rationally at least will trust the rise. Any rise is not underpinned by fundamentals in the sense of solid earnings etc... can only be based on hope that such will materialize in the future ( like a T/O based on fanciful valuations) and if this is over optimistic then inevitably the price retraces all the way back again.

Perhaps all non earning Aim shares are in this condition. One is actually following the waves and dips of sentiment alone.
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 12:34 #197

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Fundamentals?!?! :dry: :unsure:
Never heard of that!! ;) lol....

What i will say is, if one was following Fundamentals, with regards to GKP... you can sure, more than likely they'd be well under water atm.... imho...
Or sold at a serious loss.... just my honest opinion...

Regards,
Trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 22 Dec 2014 12:35 by Trendfriend.
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 11:42 #198

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Its interesting chartists talking about fundamentals... because i wonder what they do support aside from magic T/Os of course... (always possible as Afren is hoping. )
...but noticed that previously F4T when he mentioned fundamentals was highly skeptical above 85. His somewhat pessimistic views generally have played out. Nothing I would like more than you to be right of course.... but how far are the charts tied to fundamentals in the end? I ask as someone with a healthy respect for both charts and fundamentals lol!
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 10:15 #199

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GULF...NE%28daily%29%29.png

A few hurdles await in the shape of resistances at 70; 81; 85 and 117, with the last being at the 161% extension of the move up from 48.50.

With the fundamental prognosis now looking far more favourable than of late, perhaps, just perhaps, things are improving. I remain hopeful for a better 2015 :woohoo:

Let's not get carried away - 117 needs to be breached and held before real celebrations can begin!
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GKP 22 Dec 2014 10:04 #200

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Agree on the weekly chart Ade for the 123 low ,,,, I have a break of 85 and an initial target of 121.50

www.screencast.com/t/FkRNkKBcTm
Last Edit: 22 Dec 2014 10:06 by SirRichardBunson. Reason: Correction
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