Here's the daily chart going right back to the start of the last downtrend at 228p. We can clearly see how it traded in a channel until the day it broke the main uptrend support (no longer shown) and the 161p support on 22nd April when TK transferred his 10mm shares.
The lower dotted line is almost exactly another channel width away and we can see how that then became support which ultimately coincided with the uptrend from the 64p and 87p lows shown earlier on a weekly chart. The rise since 126p has travelled all the way back both channels and found the expected resistance at 165p where the channel top meets the 38.2% Fib. This move looks very much like it has 5 subwaves which is suggests that this in the new trend direction.
The last of these 5 subwaves has a messy appearance in a wedge shape as noted in the comments on the last chart entry. This could be what is known as an ending diagonal triangle and shows how the rise has been losing strength as it neared the resistance and was also seen on the hourly chart as bearish divergences (see last entry).
Today's high is now key. A close above that and the SP should move on to around the 190p area (the high from 9 April but I still favour a retrace from here to form wave 2 and set up a wave 3 which would be more in keeping with what we'd expect on a break of this downtrend resistance (ie wave 3 is normally much stronger than wave 1 and we'd expect a break of this important downtrend to produce a strong move so it makes more sense for this to happen as part of wave 3 than wave 1).
We might be able to get an early clue from the hourly chart.
The lower dotted line is almost exactly another channel width away and we can see how that then became support which ultimately coincided with the uptrend from the 64p and 87p lows shown earlier on a weekly chart. The rise since 126p has travelled all the way back both channels and found the expected resistance at 165p where the channel top meets the 38.2% Fib. This move looks very much like it has 5 subwaves which is suggests that this in the new trend direction.
The last of these 5 subwaves has a messy appearance in a wedge shape as noted in the comments on the last chart entry. This could be what is known as an ending diagonal triangle and shows how the rise has been losing strength as it neared the resistance and was also seen on the hourly chart as bearish divergences (see last entry).
Today's high is now key. A close above that and the SP should move on to around the 190p area (the high from 9 April but I still favour a retrace from here to form wave 2 and set up a wave 3 which would be more in keeping with what we'd expect on a break of this downtrend resistance (ie wave 3 is normally much stronger than wave 1 and we'd expect a break of this important downtrend to produce a strong move so it makes more sense for this to happen as part of wave 3 than wave 1).
We might be able to get an early clue from the hourly chart.
On this updated hourly chart we can see how today's price high (remember, this was a known and important resistance) had an hourly shooting star or inverted hammer and was also at the trendline from the previous 2 highs.
We can also see how the bounce from 154p today came from the hourly RSI support which started with the bullish divergence before 126p. At today's price high the RSI didn't quite manage to reach its bearish divergence resistance, again suggesting a retrace.
Having said that, we can never be certain that bearish divergences will play out - sometimes the indicators break out of their downtrend and prices continue to rise so what I'll be looking for is which direction the RSI breaks out of (on an hourly closing basis). If it closes to the upside then price may well break to new levels, to the downside and we'll likely get our retrace. Not a definitive forecast by any means but at least we know what we're looking for.